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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1805178 times)
MatthewLM
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May 09, 2012, 07:08:39 PM
 #1081

To think Nautilus will do well, you have to assume they can actually mine at the concentrations in their resource estimate report and that the costs can remain under control. So it all sounds interesting but things usually turn out worse than planned.

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tvbcof
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May 09, 2012, 09:57:19 PM
 #1082

Another Score:  5/9/12

          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.75         5.03       + 1.34
Gold    1510         1590      + 1.05


--------------------------
ref (for future updates):
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-08zeg2011-05-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv  (change date)
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html  (hist cgi at bottom)
mult=now/year_ago

Another Score:  5/8/12

          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.64         5.03       + 1.38
Gold    1497         1605      + 1.07


bitcool
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May 09, 2012, 10:21:59 PM
 #1083

pm's sinking faster and faster now that we've cleared $1600...it will get worse once we clear the December lows...

I think PM are doing just fine. The negative correlation between PM and USD in recent months shows their potential as an anti-dollar asset class.

On the other hand, I am super disappointed with BTC's inability of reflecting any event happening in the currency market, an indication in my mind that very few people treat it as a serious currency.
waveaddict
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May 09, 2012, 10:47:00 PM
 #1084

pm's sinking faster and faster now that we've cleared $1600...it will get worse once we clear the December lows...

I think PM are doing just fine. The negative correlation between PM and USD in recent months shows their potential as an anti-dollar asset class.

On the other hand, I am super disappointed with BTC's inability of reflecting any event happening in the currency market, an indication in my mind that very few people treat it as a serious currency.


Bitcoin will only be treated as a serious currency if it's noticed by the general public, and it will only be noticed by the general public if the price of it heads a lot higher. Its as simple as that  Wink

cypherdoc
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May 10, 2012, 03:13:08 AM
 #1085

I find it particularly telling that the dollar index still can't get a handle above 80 with everything else diving, and the long bond isn't exactly skyrocketing either.

take a look again. Wink
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May 10, 2012, 03:14:43 AM
 #1086

pm's sinking faster and faster now that we've cleared $1600...it will get worse once we clear the December lows...

I think PM are doing just fine. The negative correlation between PM and USD in recent months shows their potential as an anti-dollar asset class.

On the other hand, I am super disappointed with BTC's inability of reflecting any event happening in the currency market, an indication in my mind that very few people treat it as a serious currency.


ALL asset classes are moving counter to the USD EXCEPT Bitcoin.  This is a positive as far as I'm concerned.
tvbcof
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May 10, 2012, 03:48:47 AM
 #1087

pm's sinking faster and faster now that we've cleared $1600...it will get worse once we clear the December lows...

Yawn.  I've been hearing effectively the same thing for a decade.  (A decade of watching it grow several-fold as everyone knows...ya, ya, I know; this time it'll be different...the cycles...blah, blah, blah.)

I think PM are doing just fine. The negative correlation between PM and USD in recent months shows their potential as an anti-dollar asset class.

On the other hand, I am super disappointed with BTC's inability of reflecting any event happening in the currency market, an indication in my mind that very few people treat it as a serious currency.

edit: snipped the part I meant to respond to...

Bitcoin will only be treated as a serious currency if it's noticed by the general public, and it will only be noticed by the general public if the price of it heads a lot higher. Its as simple as that  Wink

I suspect that valuations will have relatively little to do with adoption.  High valuations may (and have) attracted attention and spur some amount of interest, but only a tiny amount in the scheme of things since the number of people who have even heard of it, much less use or understand it is minuscule.

What I believe could drive real adoption of Bitcoin would be a failure of the alternatives.  Right now I know a fair amount about Bitcoin and like much of what I know about it.  I also dis-like a lot of aspects of our fiat-based systems.  That said, I happily go about using USD, Paypal, Visa, etc.  They work fine.  If/when they stop working fine I'll (hopefully) be switching over to actually using Bitcoin.


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May 10, 2012, 05:32:52 AM
 #1088

Somewhere in the last few post the difference between Bitcoins and Gold was (re-re-re)discovered and (once again!) stated, so I will repeat:

Bitcoins are a means of MOVING value.
Gold/Silver are a means of STORING value (silver less so than gold imho).
miscreanity
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May 10, 2012, 06:07:45 AM
 #1089

I think PM are doing just fine. The negative correlation between PM and USD in recent months shows their potential as an anti-dollar asset class.

On the other hand, I am super disappointed with BTC's inability of reflecting any event happening in the currency market, an indication in my mind that very few people treat it as a serious currency.

I see Bitcoin as an indicator of the real value of gold, and real assets in general. It isn't gold that's fluctuating: it's fiat.

ALL asset classes are moving counter to the USD EXCEPT Bitcoin.  This is a positive as far as I'm concerned.

Bitcoin is the only non-real, financial asset whose value cannot be directly obfuscated.

What I believe could drive real adoption of Bitcoin would be a failure of the alternatives.  Right now I know a fair amount about Bitcoin and like much of what I know about it.  I also dis-like a lot of aspects of our fiat-based systems.  That said, I happily go about using USD, Paypal, Visa, etc.  They work fine.  If/when they stop working fine I'll (hopefully) be switching over to actually using Bitcoin.

Yes, a catastrophic failure of other systems would propel Bitcoin to the forefront. That may not be necessary, though - there's a lot going on behind the scenes as far as supporting infrastructure development. This is likely to cause adoption in less developed nations before the first world caves and uses it.

Bitcoins are a means of MOVING value.
Gold/Silver are a means of STORING value (silver less so than gold imho).

For now... stock to flow ratios will eventually make Bitcoin even more attractive as a store of value than gold & silver.
Blitz­
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May 10, 2012, 06:24:24 AM
 #1090

Somewhere in the last few post the difference between Bitcoins and Gold was (re-re-re)discovered and (once again!) stated, so I will repeat:

Bitcoins are a means of MOVING value.
Gold/Silver are a means of STORING value (silver less so than gold imho).

With metals, I have no idea how much supply is around and how much will be found in the future (and at what rate). Counterfeiting can also be a problem. There are tons of other advantages since it is easy to store anywhere, cannot be confiscated etc. So technically, Bitcoin is superior to fulfill a role as a store of value.

Also, have you looked at a long-term Bitcoin chart? I say Bitcoin is Gold 2.0.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
2weiX
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May 10, 2012, 07:22:14 AM
 #1091

Somewhere in the last few post the difference between Bitcoins and Gold was (re-re-re)discovered and (once again!) stated, so I will repeat:

Bitcoins are a means of MOVING value.
Gold/Silver are a means of STORING value (silver less so than gold imho).

With metals, I have no idea how much supply is around and how much will be found in the future (and at what rate). Counterfeiting can also be a problem. There are tons of other advantages since it is easy to store anywhere, cannot be confiscated etc. So technically, Bitcoin is superior to fulfill a role as a store of value.

Also, have you looked at a long-term Bitcoin chart? I say Bitcoin is Gold 2.0.

Bitcoin is in no way whatsoever superior to Gold as a storage device for value, since it is NOT A STORAGE DEVICE FOR VALUE (emphasis mine).

Counterfeiting and discovery of new supplies can be viewed as double-spending-attempts and new forks.
The moment in which Gold will become obsolete as ultimate store of value will indeed be when someone manages to find a metric shitmile of it in space.
Blitz­
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May 10, 2012, 09:54:18 AM
 #1092

Bitcoin is in no way whatsoever superior to Gold as a storage device for value, since it is NOT A STORAGE DEVICE FOR VALUE (emphasis mine).

Why not? Because you say so? Bitcoin seems to work as a long-term store of value very well so far.

I think Bitcoin makes Gold (as a money) obsolete.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
2weiX
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May 10, 2012, 10:48:25 AM
 #1093

Bitcoin is in no way whatsoever superior to Gold as a storage device for value, since it is NOT A STORAGE DEVICE FOR VALUE (emphasis mine).

Why not? Because you say so? Bitcoin seems to work as a long-term store of value very well so far.

I think Bitcoin makes Gold (as a money) obsolete.

Gold isn't money.
Gold was used as something to represent (back) money.
Gold is a store of value since it has had roughly the same barter value for the last 2000 years.


The deflationary nature of Bitcoin makes it seem that they are a nice way to store money, because there is a semi-limited supply of Gold, and Bitcoin are "mined"!
Since, there is nothing to "represent" Bitcoin other than fiat (and we're trying to avoid fiat right?), the only storage Bitcoin is is for ...Bitcoin.
The electronic nature makes it perfect for moving value.
To define something with ~3-year history suffering ~2000%+ volatility as "perfect store for value" is just downright funny.



Blitz­
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May 10, 2012, 11:07:14 AM
 #1094

Gold was used as a money. It only stopped being used because it is inferior to paper and electronic money since it is a pain to handle.

Since, there is nothing to "represent" Bitcoin other than fiat (and we're trying to avoid fiat right?), the only storage Bitcoin is is for ...Bitcoin.
I still don’t get what you mean with the storage thing. In how far is Gold different?

Gold cannot offer me certainty over its (future) supply. Gold cannot offer me the ability to transport and store vast quantities cheaply and without worries. Gold cannot offer me the ability to not have it confiscated by a government. Gold cannot offer me the ability to easily liquidate it at anytime.

In short, Gold loses out in pretty much every respect in comparison to Bitcoin. The only two downsides are its short history so far and its dependance on the Internet.

BTW, you are telling me Bitcoin is so volatile while promoting Silver and Gold as a store of value. You should take a look at both their long-term graphs, particularly silver.

You can wait a few thousand years if you like, I for one consider Bitcoin a superior long-term store of value right now.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
2weiX
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May 10, 2012, 12:18:13 PM
 #1095

When storage of value comes to mind, I think years / dekades, maybe longer.
Bitcoin isn't around long enough to prove that it is.


Everybody who advocates Bitcoin to store value is an investor, not a saver.
And the poor fool who will be holding the short stick after everyone realizes that it isn't.
miscreanity
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May 10, 2012, 04:42:06 PM
 #1096

Methinks someone may be pushing his signature product. That's not necessarily a bad thing, considering I'm in favor of PMs as much as Bitcoin; just an observation.
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May 10, 2012, 04:53:33 PM
 #1097

Methinks someone may be pushing his signature product. That's not necessarily a bad thing, considering I'm in favor of PMs as much as Bitcoin; just an observation.

at this point, the onus is not on me to explain how or why Cycle Theory has worked for me; it's up to the skeptics to explain how i could be so lucky.
tvbcof
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May 10, 2012, 07:33:58 PM
 #1098

When storage of value comes to mind, I think years / dekades, maybe longer.
Bitcoin isn't around long enough to prove that it is.

Everybody who advocates Bitcoin to store value is an investor, not a saver.
And the poor fool who will be holding the short stick after everyone realizes that it isn't.

Although I do not 'advocate' Bitcoin...at least not for very many people...I do personally use it as a 'store of value'.  I prefer gold in this role and use gold as my primary vehicle for storing value, but Bitcoin has some features that are simply not practical with gold, at least not at my scale.  Chief among these is that I could wash up on a random foreign shore with nothing but the shirt on my back and have a pretty good potential to be able to access whatever value I have 'stored' in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is vastly more complex than gold and thus has more failure modes.  It's also, in it's (brief) history, more volatile.  This is why I treat BTC as a 'store of value' for corner case long-shot needs and as a relatively small fraction of my savings.

The very same BTC I use as a 'store of value' is simultaneously used as a highly speculative gamble.  I see no reason why almost any asset or item needs to be pigeon-holed into one category, or why the function needs to be set in stone as conditions evolve.  Gold is relatively static in it's role which is one of the reasons it is particularly appealing.


miscreanity
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May 10, 2012, 08:18:30 PM
 #1099

Speculative and subjective, but illustrative of the dynamic potential in play. Obviously, the main topic of the chart concerns the blue Bitcoin, green US dollar, and gold lines. The context is taken as a global basis.




silverbox
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May 10, 2012, 08:19:09 PM
 #1100

Chief among these is that I could wash up on a random foreign shore with nothing but the shirt on my back and have a pretty good potential to be able to access whatever value I have 'stored' in Bitcoin.



Where do you keep your wallet.dat's?  I guess I should put an encrypted copy online someplace, lol..  Just in case I have to wash up on a foreign shore with nothing but the shirt on my back (can I have a USB stick in my shirt pocket??)  Wink
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