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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1803621 times)
Spaceman_Spiff
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March 26, 2014, 06:35:02 AM
 #7861

I'm not sure I still feel comfortable comparing the two as there is no real reason why people would not use both for a place to store wealth.  I can see why the price of gold would go down as it has made some strong moves up.

Whats the point of gold if bitcoin were a secure store of value?
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cypherdoc
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March 26, 2014, 04:17:25 PM
 #7862

Gold smackdown today.  MIners were telegraphing the FOMC decision.  Look out.

Bitcoin stable.  Things are lining up.

Very confrimed.

Edit: Where were you when gold was at $1380 a few days ago?  Just stopping by to gloat over a correction?  K.

No need to comment everyday when the long term trend is down.

People pay for your advice?  Fascinating.

Gold down. Bitcoin up.

1200's here we come. why does it go down right when you said it was gonna go up? 

nice trade, Trader.
Peter R
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March 26, 2014, 04:35:22 PM
 #7863

Gold down. Bitcoin up.

Thanks for running this thread, cypherdoc.  Always interesting. 

In a post-fiat world, my thinking is that a cyptocurrency (e.g., bitcoin) would become the dominant form of money, but that the demand for gold would actually increase as well (to a much lesser extent) simply because it is a decentralized hedge against the failure of the cryptocurrency (secp256k1 broken, significant internet infrastructure destroyed, unrelenting 51% attack, etc.) with thousands of years of history. 

What is your opinion on the long-term outlook for gold?  Do you expect the monetary properties of gold to vanish completely? 

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
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March 26, 2014, 05:01:28 PM
 #7864

What happened to the page count?
we just lost 9 pages from the " Re: Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP."   Blockchain  Cheesy

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Ivanhoe
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March 26, 2014, 05:06:15 PM
 #7865

What happened to the page count?
we just lost 9 pages from the " Re: Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP."   Blockchain  Cheesy
Goat is deleting his posts.
Ivanhoe
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March 26, 2014, 05:10:29 PM
 #7866

What happened to the page count?
we just lost 9 pages from the " Re: Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP."   Blockchain  Cheesy
Goat is deleting his posts.

That bastard.
+1
Adrian-x
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March 26, 2014, 05:11:08 PM
 #7867

What happened to the page count?
we just lost 9 pages from the " Re: Gold collapsing.  Bitcoin UP."   Blockchain  Cheesy
Goat is deleting his posts.

That bastard.
And he's back

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cypherdoc
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March 26, 2014, 05:14:43 PM
 #7868

Gold down. Bitcoin up.

Thanks for running this thread, cypherdoc.  Always interesting. 

In a post-fiat world, my thinking is that a cyptocurrency (e.g., bitcoin) would become the dominant form of money, but that the demand for gold would actually increase as well (to a much lesser extent) simply because it is a decentralized hedge against the failure of the cryptocurrency (secp256k1 broken, significant internet infrastructure destroyed, unrelenting 51% attack, etc.) with thousands of years of history. 

What is your opinion on the long-term outlook for gold?  Do you expect the monetary properties of gold to vanish completely? 

i do think gold's future is bleak.

not to 0 mind you, but maybe mid 500's.  it could go lower temporarily.  but most of it's future value will be for industrial and ornamental purposes.  having owned the stuff in years past, it was just ridiculous to hold/store and wouldn't function well even in an Armageddon scenario.  Bitcoin is so much easier and functional.  i don't even think we're heading for that Armageddon; Bitcoin has the potential to propel society to greater levels of productivity based on verifiable fairness and truth.  yes, there will be some pain but as a society we will work thru it.  the main losers will be those who stubbornly stick to fiat.  the young ppl are prepared to embrace Bitcoin, not gold.  they are the future.  the Boomers would do well to listen to them as they will become our future bankers and politicians.

listen to Daniel Krawisz on some of his recent podcasts.  he agrees with me that there will only be one dominant form of money according to Austrian Theory.  and it won't be gold or any of the altcoins. 

my long term view is that Bitcoin would function ideally as a world reserve currency for regional forms of fiat.  that would minimize the pain that those regions would undergo compared to an all or none scenario so they will be motivated to do it.  the first country to adopt Bitcoin as their reserve will enjoy explosive growth.
Peter R
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March 26, 2014, 05:31:53 PM
 #7869

i do think gold's future is bleak.

Thanks for the thoughtful response.  

My thinking is highly-aligned with your own, only differing on the equilibrium value for gold (I still think gold will be subordinate to the dominate cryptocurrency).  

Like you alluded to, in a reserve-currency-crisis scenario gold is too slow to facilitate global trade if it physically moves, and gold requires too much trust to facilitate global trade if it doesn't.  Bitcoin permits the collapse of fiat currencies without a corresponding collapse of the major cities of the world (due to a breakdown of global trade due to the lack of sound money).  I think this is very interesting. 

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
tvbcof
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March 26, 2014, 06:03:28 PM
 #7870

...
listen to Daniel Krawisz on some of his recent podcasts.  he agrees with me that there will only be one dominant form of money according to Austrian Theory.  and it won't be gold or any of the altcoins. 

my long term view is that Bitcoin would function ideally as a world reserve currency for regional forms of fiat.  that would minimize the pain that those regions would undergo compared to an all or none scenario so they will be motivated to do it.  the first country to adopt Bitcoin as their reserve will enjoy explosive growth.

The trouble is that Bitcoin only works for most people when they guess right and entrust it to someone who doesn't happen to be a crook.  When they try to secure their ownership themselves it often turns into an unmitigated disaster.  The problem is more associated with computer (and device) security than it is with Bitcoin itself, but it's not probably going to get any better as time goes by.  Probably it will get worse in fact.  That has been the distinct trend over the past 30 years that I've been dicking around with computers and it's accelerated sharply since the global internet became widely available.

Physical PMs, by contrast, are stone-ax simple and a very dim person can reliably store their own wealth with pretty close to zero reliance on technology which they don't understand or on counter-parties who almost always fail eventually.  Even in a non MadMax environment this is a pretty significant advantage.


Adrian-x
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March 26, 2014, 06:24:34 PM
 #7871


...  the first country to adopt Bitcoin as their reserve will enjoy explosive growth.
This would have to be a country with natural reserves or a productive population, a new sea seastead or African state wouldn't be able to maintain the balance of payments. (Not being naturally rich in Bitcoin)

I understand the BIS members align interest with swap agreements between central banks, to hedge cooperation and cohesion, there are just a handful of CB's of countries with resources out of there control. So my interpretation would be it is impossible to break free from the global monetary policy without giving favour to other CB's and writing of money owed to your CB. The only viable options are those fiew banks not controlled through the BIS.

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cypherdoc
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March 26, 2014, 07:24:28 PM
 #7872

back under $1300!
cypherdoc
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March 26, 2014, 07:32:51 PM
 #7873

Not lookin so good.

Junior miners:



Large miners:

counter
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March 27, 2014, 06:06:20 AM
 #7874

I'm not sure I still feel comfortable comparing the two as there is no real reason why people would not use both for a place to store wealth.  I can see why the price of gold would go down as it has made some strong moves up.

Whats the point of gold if bitcoin were a secure store of value?

well gold can't just be made out of thin air and has a history of being a good store of weath.  Also it can be useful in other ways so I think it is a valuable asset to have.  I hope that answers you question.
TeeBone
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March 27, 2014, 06:50:30 PM
 #7875

Both heading DOWNTOWN. 400's baby, bring it. 300's next.
molecular
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March 27, 2014, 06:53:08 PM
 #7876

Both heading DOWNTOWN. 400's baby, bring it. 300's next.

Don't get too excited. $400 is in the cards, yes. But 300...? I don't think.


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TeeBone
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March 27, 2014, 07:06:09 PM
 #7877

Both heading DOWNTOWN. 400's baby, bring it. 300's next.

Don't get too excited. $400 is in the cards, yes. But 300...? I don't think.



Im a big ole Bear, i lie in wait for times like this  Grin

300's wouldnt suprise me. 200's either. Dont think we've seen captitulation, hardcore pain yet to come. same thing happening with gold/silver, last few weak hands being shaken out.
Dusty
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March 29, 2014, 09:53:00 AM
 #7878

The trouble is that Bitcoin only works for most people when they guess right and entrust it to someone who doesn't happen to be a crook.  When they try to secure their ownership themselves it often turns into an unmitigated disaster.  The problem is more associated with computer (and device) security than it is with Bitcoin itself, but it's not probably going to get any better as time goes by.  Probably it will get worse in fact.
Actually that trend is reversing, just take a look at new generation wallets like https://greenaddress.it/

You have the convenience and ease of use of an online wallet but without any drawback since using a 2of2 signature the owner of the site can't run away with your funds.

For the same technological choice you are safe even if a trojan compromises your pc or your phone.

If they disappear your funds are safe using pre-signed transactions with nLockTime.

The backup is simple and one-time (using BIP32 HD wallets).

That considerably raises the bar for security relatively to all the others, but for unknown reasons (maybe polical ones?) greenaddress it's not even listed on the main bitcoin.org site.

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miscreanity
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March 30, 2014, 06:23:12 PM
 #7879

Both heading DOWNTOWN. 400's baby, bring it. 300's next.
Don't get too excited. $400 is in the cards, yes. But 300...? I don't think.

Big rises have yet to backfill. In order for the $1000+ high to fill, it would have to drop below $300, possibly as low as ~$160 before the trend reverses.

Of course growth rates may be enough to keep that from happening. If the ~$400-430 range holds through the supposed China deadline and the big investments start drawing in new usage, we could easily be headed back to the moon.

In short, April is going to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin (and gold, silver, bonds, nearly everything else). I think if a collapse doesn't happen here, we'll know whether Bitcoin will truly thrive by late 3rd to 4th quarter this year.
sidhujag
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March 31, 2014, 03:41:48 PM
 #7880

Both heading DOWNTOWN. 400's baby, bring it. 300's next.
Don't get too excited. $400 is in the cards, yes. But 300...? I don't think.

Big rises have yet to backfill. In order for the $1000+ high to fill, it would have to drop below $300, possibly as low as ~$160 before the trend reverses.

Of course growth rates may be enough to keep that from happening. If the ~$400-430 range holds through the supposed China deadline and the big investments start drawing in new usage, we could easily be headed back to the moon.

In short, April is going to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin (and gold, silver, bonds, nearly everything else). I think if a collapse doesn't happen here, we'll know whether Bitcoin will truly thrive by late 3rd to 4th quarter this year.

Volume is high according to current supply so my formula is supply*10.. aslong as we have 28k volume btc a day we should be going up until its not.
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