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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807137 times)
User705
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February 03, 2014, 06:44:16 AM
 #7621

Partial review of the bailout programs:

http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/bailouttracker/

Neil Barofsky's final estimate was around $23-29T.
So about US$200K per taxpayer?  The cure was worse than the disease.
Depends if you have more than 200k to your name or less.
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February 03, 2014, 08:43:17 AM
 #7622

Partial review of the bailout programs:

http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/bailouttracker/

Neil Barofsky's final estimate was around $23-29T.

So if bitcoin were to soak up 10% of the bailout money it will be >$100k per coin ... just to give some perspective.

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February 03, 2014, 09:56:25 AM
 #7623

The fed *never* goes insolvent, they print whatever they want. The govt might very well. Inflation is the one they don't have any direct control over. They can report it how they wish though.

The whole financial system is a charade. A joke. When the government has an actual ability to force worthless scrip on people, the ability will be used to expand the government and suffocate the productive economy. The exact details are different and depend on era and culture, but it will never end until the domain is sucked dry of economic activity and people are generally literally starving. So it was in Roman times, and the decline lasted for hundreds of years, so it will be now.

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February 03, 2014, 10:23:39 AM
 #7624

So it was in Roman times, and the decline lasted for hundreds of years, so it will be now.

Hundreds of years? I think not. Everything is moving so much faster now. Hundreds of days perhaps.
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February 03, 2014, 01:05:10 PM
 #7625

Partial review of the bailout programs:

http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/bailouttracker/

Neil Barofsky's final estimate was around $23-29T.
So about US$200K per taxpayer?  The cure was worse than the disease.
Depends if you have more than 200k to your name or less.
Are the folks with over-under US$200K the one's in the game?
Seems that the folks who made out like bandits were those with the most negative $.
The more debt you got from the fed, the more you could make loaning out the zero interest money they were gifting to the uber-rich debtors.
The current winners are the folks with thousands of low interest mortgages and buying a hundred houses a day with this low interest debt.  Concentration of the debt personalizes the reward and socializes the risk.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
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February 03, 2014, 05:18:21 PM
 #7626

So it was in Roman times, and the decline lasted for hundreds of years, so it will be now.

Hundreds of years? I think not. Everything is moving so much faster now. Hundreds of days perhaps.


Yes, in Rome they did not have The Internets

They also did not have Bitcoin  Cool
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February 03, 2014, 05:58:21 PM
 #7627

Who bails out the Fed when it is insolvent.  If interest rates start climbing at all, it can wipe them out pretty swiftly.

The IMF?
The US Taxpayer?
Neither of these have the funds to do it.

cant they keep printing?


The FED bails out the FED by using the money printer.

If the FED was a real bank there would have been a bank run a long time ago. They are levered something like 100-to-1 against their minimal capital base, while even regular mega-banks are no where near that. The simple reason is the FED can create capital at will, so there is zero risk of them going negative.

If it makes the banking system seems like a magical fairy land with unicorns not grounded in reality, that is because the FED does operate as if the magical fairly land is real. However us mere mortals know that everything lives in the real world, and when that reality catches up to the FED it won't end well.
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February 03, 2014, 08:38:05 PM
 #7628

However us mere mortals know that everything lives in the real world, and when that reality catches up to the FED it won't end well.
It seems that it will end VERY well for them, just not for anyone else.
And if they ever do move into Bitcoin, following the money will be somewhat easier than it is with the entirely unauditable central bank.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
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February 03, 2014, 10:28:30 PM
 #7629

However us mere mortals know that everything lives in the real world, and when that reality catches up to the FED it won't end well.
It seems that it will end VERY well for them, just not for anyone else.
And if they ever do move into Bitcoin, following the money will be somewhat easier than it is with the entirely unauditable central bank.

Do you really think they would make us the new 1% elites? Just so that they can move to a system after the big crash? More likely they would start their own ripple based idea and force others to use it as legal tender?
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February 03, 2014, 11:13:00 PM
 #7630

This is an article by Bud Conrad from today. Probably one of the best "old school" analysts around and definitely the clearest writer. Definitely worth reading imo.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/now-is-the-time-to-buy-gold
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February 04, 2014, 12:05:51 AM
 #7631

So it was in Roman times, and the decline lasted for hundreds of years, so it will be now.

Hundreds of years? I think not. Everything is moving so much faster now. Hundreds of days perhaps.


Yes, in Rome they did not have The Internets

They also did not have Bitcoin  Cool

This year. where does it start? Nobody knows, it is a lottery. Maybe, just maybe, it has already started.
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February 04, 2014, 12:27:24 AM
 #7632

Do you really think they would make us the new 1% elites? Just so that they can move to a system after the big crash?

In my discussion with my friends and family about bitcoin, I regularly hear "it's not fair that early adopters are making so much money!  The powers-that-be won't let it continue."  

Beyond the "what-is-a-fair-reward-for-risk" debate, I also question how much money earlier adopters are actually making.  In fact, unless you are extremely risky with your investments, I think what I'll refer to as your "lifetime wealth" is unlikely to increase by more than a single order of magnitude even if bitcoin hits $100,000 per coin.

Consider Bob who invested $5000 in bitcoin in December 2012 at $14 giving him 360 BTC.  At the time, bitcoin seemed very high-risk (a lot has changed that we tend to forget), so this was a large risk-adjusted investment for someone who was likely quite young.  

Bob sees the price hit $28 in February, and thinks "sweet, I'll sell half my coins to re-coup my initial investment!!  Life is good and bitcoin ROCKS!!!"

Now Bob has 180 BTC.

But the price is climbing....and climbing....Bob is annoyed that he sold 180 BTC at $25 because the price is now $100.  He has an epiphany that bitcoin will never crash again--it's on its way to becoming a new world currency.  So he holds all the way up to $266 and is euphoric!

And then BOOM.  The market crashes.  His illusions are shattered and, with one eye on the 2011 crash chart, he sells another half of his coins at $100.  Now he has 90 BTC ($9,000) and has re-couped his initial investment plus $9000.    

It all happened so fast, that first bubble, he thinks.  Bob cracks out Excel and comes up with a plan: divest 15% each time bitcoin doubles in price.  This way, he still wins even if bitcoin one day fails (and he can sleep at night) and he wins-big if it succeeds:  

If bitcoin hits $100,000 per coin, Bob has extracted $780,000 in cash and has about 18 bitcoins left (1.8 million dollars).

This is hardly "elite."  






Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
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February 04, 2014, 12:44:00 AM
 #7633

This is an article by Bud Conrad from today. Probably one of the best "old school" analysts around and definitely the clearest writer. Definitely worth reading imo.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/now-is-the-time-to-buy-gold


Just to be sure, you're posting what is yet another article from a gold bug telling people "now is the perfect time to buy gold, economic collapse is right around the corner," just like every single goldbug article for the last 30 years,

in a thread that is founded on the specific premise that gold is a barbarous relic and is headed for low triple or double digits?

At least you have some balls  Cool

EDIT: Skimmed it. Nothing I haven't already seen. Typical formula for such an article
-Something about physical demand (yes, stackers gonna stack)
-Asian central banks buying gold (yes, they are)
-Manipulation driving price down (yes, we know, naked shorts)
-Explanation for why it's a bear market (again, same old)
-Something about germany and repatriation (yes yes, we get it, the US doesn't have germany's gold, this has already been established)
-Chart of COMEX inventory (as if the people printing the naked-short-destined-certificates would ever let COMEX default in a million years) 

Yes, basically a summary of every single ZeroHedge article on gold for the last 10 years
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February 04, 2014, 01:16:38 AM
 #7634

"At least you have some balls "

God if I had a bitcoin for every time some hot babe told me that. To me it was just a summary of what the current status is of a particular market, written by someone who understands the market, in a thread whose title is 50% about gold. I own gold and bitcoin in about equal amounts. My rationale being that China is not likely to gain reserve currency status by telling the rest of the world that it has x bitcoins in its coffers. Maybe one day. The gold standard, rather than gold itself was what was referred to as that barbarous relic.
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February 04, 2014, 01:43:44 AM
 #7635

Gold is good - it glitters.
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February 04, 2014, 02:54:11 AM
 #7636

Do you really think they would make us the new 1% elites? Just so that they can move to a system after the big crash?

In my discussion with my friends and family about bitcoin, I regularly hear "it's not fair that early adopters are making so much money!  The powers-that-be won't let it continue."  

Beyond the "what-is-a-fair-reward-for-risk" debate, I also question how much money earlier adopters are actually making.  In fact, unless you are extremely risky with your investments, I think what I'll refer to as your "lifetime wealth" is unlikely to increase by more than a single order of magnitude even if bitcoin hits $100,000 per coin.

Consider Bob who invested $5000 in bitcoin in December 2012 at $14 giving him 360 BTC.  At the time, bitcoin seemed very high-risk (a lot has changed that we tend to forget), so this was a large risk-adjusted investment for someone who was likely quite young.  

Bob sees the price hit $28 in February, and thinks "sweet, I'll sell half my coins to re-coup my initial investment!!  Life is good and bitcoin ROCKS!!!"

Now Bob has 180 BTC.

But the price is climbing....and climbing....Bob is annoyed that he sold 180 BTC at $25 because the price is now $100.  He has an epiphany that bitcoin will never crash again--it's on its way to becoming a new world currency.  So he holds all the way up to $266 and is euphoric!

And then BOOM.  The market crashes.  His illusions are shattered and, with one eye on the 2011 crash chart, he sells another half of his coins at $100.  Now he has 90 BTC ($9,000) and has re-couped his initial investment plus $9000.    

It all happened so fast, that first bubble, he thinks.  Bob cracks out Excel and comes up with a plan: divest 15% each time bitcoin doubles in price.  This way, he still wins even if bitcoin one day fails (and he can sleep at night) and he wins-big if it succeeds:  

If bitcoin hits $100,000 per coin, Bob has extracted $780,000 in cash and has about 18 bitcoins left (1.8 million dollars).

This is hardly "elite."  






People who understand the financial system didnt sell any.. and there are alot of those. They would be the elite.
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February 04, 2014, 03:24:48 AM
 #7637


People who understand the financial system didnt sell any.. and there are alot of those. They would be the elite.



Do you think it is unwise to crystallize a portion of your gains, thereby diversifying your portfolio while de-risking in case bitcoin does fail?  

It's my impression that even the most bullish here have diversified to some extent.  Otherwise you quickly end up with a portfolio >90% in bitcoin.  

I actually agree that a few special people won't diversify at all.  But these are the exception, not the rule.  Kudos to them if it works out flawlessly.  

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
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February 04, 2014, 03:50:40 AM
 #7638

Do you really think they would make us the new 1% elites? Just so that they can move to a system after the big crash?

In my discussion with my friends and family about bitcoin, I regularly hear "it's not fair that early adopters are making so much money!  The powers-that-be won't let it continue."  

Beyond the "what-is-a-fair-reward-for-risk" debate, I also question how much money earlier adopters are actually making.  In fact, unless you are extremely risky with your investments, I think what I'll refer to as your "lifetime wealth" is unlikely to increase by more than a single order of magnitude even if bitcoin hits $100,000 per coin.

Consider Bob who invested $5000 in bitcoin in December 2012 at $14 giving him 360 BTC.  At the time, bitcoin seemed very high-risk (a lot has changed that we tend to forget), so this was a large risk-adjusted investment for someone who was likely quite young.  

Bob sees the price hit $28 in February, and thinks "sweet, I'll sell half my coins to re-coup my initial investment!!  Life is good and bitcoin ROCKS!!!"

Now Bob has 180 BTC.

But the price is climbing....and climbing....Bob is annoyed that he sold 180 BTC at $25 because the price is now $100.  He has an epiphany that bitcoin will never crash again--it's on its way to becoming a new world currency.  So he holds all the way up to $266 and is euphoric!

And then BOOM.  The market crashes.  His illusions are shattered and, with one eye on the 2011 crash chart, he sells another half of his coins at $100.  Now he has 90 BTC ($9,000) and has re-couped his initial investment plus $9000.    

It all happened so fast, that first bubble, he thinks.  Bob cracks out Excel and comes up with a plan: divest 15% each time bitcoin doubles in price.  This way, he still wins even if bitcoin one day fails (and he can sleep at night) and he wins-big if it succeeds:  

If bitcoin hits $100,000 per coin, Bob has extracted $780,000 in cash and has about 18 bitcoins left (1.8 million dollars).

This is hardly "elite."  

I agree this likely happened to many early adopters. The other issue is that the global elite don't really care about us one way or the other.  They do what's in their own perceived best interests, and if Bitcoin becomes the best of their available options, they'll take it.



insert coin here:
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tvbcof
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February 04, 2014, 04:38:02 AM
 #7639


People who understand the financial system didnt sell any.. and there are alot of those. They would be the elite.


Do you think it is unwise to crystallize a portion of your gains, thereby diversifying your portfolio while de-risking in case bitcoin does fail?  

It's my impression that even the most bullish here have diversified to some extent.  Otherwise you quickly end up with a portfolio >90% in bitcoin.  

I actually agree that a few special people won't diversify at all.  But these are the exception, not the rule.  Kudos to them if it works out flawlessly.  


One of the biggest driving forces for me to diversify is that it looks like the Bitcoin Foundation and CFR are well on their way to perverting Bitcoin into something I don't even care about.  Of course I'm going to hold on to enough of them to ride along on any valuations success that that eventuality might provoke.  As for being an interesting and valuable technological and social instrument, however, it looks like Southpark "and, it's gone" thing might end up being quite fitting.


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February 04, 2014, 04:46:42 AM
 #7640


People who understand the financial system didnt sell any.. and there are alot of those. They would be the elite.


Do you think it is unwise to crystallize a portion of your gains, thereby diversifying your portfolio while de-risking in case bitcoin does fail?  

It's my impression that even the most bullish here have diversified to some extent.  Otherwise you quickly end up with a portfolio >90% in bitcoin.  

I actually agree that a few special people won't diversify at all.  But these are the exception, not the rule.  Kudos to them if it works out flawlessly.  


One of the biggest driving forces for me to diversify is that it looks like the Bitcoin Foundation and CFR are well on their way to perverting Bitcoin into something I don't even care about.  Of course I'm going to hold on to enough of them to ride along on any valuations success that that eventuality might provoke.  As for being an interesting and valuable technological and social instrument, however, it looks like Southpark "and, it's gone" thing might end up being quite fitting.




What's "CFR"?

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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