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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807065 times)
molecular
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February 05, 2014, 08:30:29 AM
 #7661


" Billionaire Mark Cuban has a currency trade idea for 2014 -Long Bitcoin and Short Gold."
 molecular has held the idea consistently since 2011 (although he did short XBT and buy alpaca sock - and has refused to sell)
I'm sure molecular will hold in 2014 too.

Lol. I'm not selling gold. This may be a good idea for people who are mostly in gold and less (or not ata all) in BTC, which is not the case for me. My portfolio is still very BTC-heavy.

I did buy gold and silver in 2011 (after having acquired my first coins). Basically put all my fiat (I was almost broke to begin with) into Bitcoin and metal. I woke up at that time to the fiat scam and all that crap. Unfortunately I put way more into gold and silver than into BTC. I'm not complaining, though. It was the correct decision at the time for me.

I still think all these will be up in 2014.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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February 05, 2014, 07:08:01 PM
 #7662


" Billionaire Mark Cuban has a currency trade idea for 2014 -Long Bitcoin and Short Gold."
 molecular has held the idea consistently since 2011 (although he did short XBT and buy alpaca sock - and has refused to sell)
I'm sure molecular will hold in 2014 too.

My alpacas are prolific, more baby cria all the time.  If anyone wants some alpacas, I do take bitcoin  Smiley

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
cypherdoc
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February 05, 2014, 09:43:54 PM
 #7663

Banksters destroying archives?  can't do that with Bitcoin:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-05/argentine-banking-system-archives-destroyed-deadly-fire
Dragonkiller
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February 05, 2014, 11:36:06 PM
 #7664

I'm starting to think Yellen will continue with the taper; I don't think the Fed will make such a public u-turn. It might continue through some other means which is not as obvious. But I think for now, the plan is to continue with the taper to destabilize emerging markets and force capital into US equities and bonds which are 'safe' in comparison. If they manage to pull that off, they can keep the stock market, real estate and other assets inflated and taper at the same time.

Thoughts?
notme
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February 05, 2014, 11:46:59 PM
 #7665

I'm starting to think Yellen will continue with the taper; I don't think the Fed will make such a public u-turn. It might continue through some other means which is not as obvious. But I think for now, the plan is to continue with the taper to destabilize emerging markets and force capital into US equities and bonds which are 'safe' in comparison. If they manage to pull that off, they can keep the stock market, real estate and other assets inflated and taper at the same time.

Thoughts?

Maybe.  But are they "safe enough"?  Obviously some will make the trade, but others might just go to cash and take their time with reinvestment.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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Dragonkiller
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February 06, 2014, 12:19:17 AM
 #7666

I'm starting to think Yellen will continue with the taper; I don't think the Fed will make such a public u-turn. It might continue through some other means which is not as obvious. But I think for now, the plan is to continue with the taper to destabilize emerging markets and force capital into US equities and bonds which are 'safe' in comparison. If they manage to pull that off, they can keep the stock market, real estate and other assets inflated and taper at the same time.

Thoughts?

Maybe.  But are they "safe enough"?  Obviously some will make the trade, but others might just go to cash and take their time with reinvestment.

Well seeing as the destabilization is coming in the form of currency crises, they will move out of their local currencies and into the US Dollar.

Once they've done that, they could take their time with reinvestment, but they'll almost certainly go into US investments.

I think the Fed will make US markets attractive by making emerging markets look bad in comparison.
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February 06, 2014, 02:16:26 AM
 #7667

I'm starting to think Yellen will continue with the taper; I don't think the Fed will make such a public u-turn. It might continue through some other means which is not as obvious. But I think for now, the plan is to continue with the taper to destabilize emerging markets and force capital into US equities and bonds which are 'safe' in comparison. If they manage to pull that off, they can keep the stock market, real estate and other assets inflated and taper at the same time.

Thoughts?

Maybe.  But are they "safe enough"?  Obviously some will make the trade, but others might just go to cash and take their time with reinvestment.

Well seeing as the destabilization is coming in the form of currency crises, they will move out of their local currencies and into the US Dollar.

Once they've done that, they could take their time with reinvestment, but they'll almost certainly go into US investments.

I think the Fed will make US markets attractive by making emerging markets look bad in comparison.

I wish them luck with that.  The US indices are just past all time highs and P/E ratios are through the roof.  It certainly doesn't look attractive to me.

Startups and VC might be a viable outlet.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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February 06, 2014, 03:37:14 AM
 #7668

...
The US indices are just past all time highs and P/E ratios are through the roof.  ...

I keep hearing people say that, but it's just not true:
http://www.multpl.com/

It's slightly high at 18.65, versus the 140yr mean of 15.51, but it's certainly a lot lower than the typical peaks of long bull cycles:
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/PE-Ratios-and-Market-Valuation.php

That's not to say earnings figures are necessarily pure, given the unprecedented QE, bailouts, "stimulus", etc... That stuff has never been done to this degree before, so it may be valid to consider the E inflated...

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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February 06, 2014, 05:09:46 AM
 #7669

...
The US indices are just past all time highs and P/E ratios are through the roof.  ...

I keep hearing people say that, but it's just not true:
http://www.multpl.com/

It's slightly high at 18.65, versus the 140yr mean of 15.51, but it's certainly a lot lower than the typical peaks of long bull cycles:
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/PE-Ratios-and-Market-Valuation.php

That's not to say earnings figures are necessarily pure, given the unprecedented QE, bailouts, "stimulus", etc... That stuff has never been done to this degree before, so it may be valid to consider the E inflated...

The earnings are inflation-adjusted, right? And real inflation is about 8% higher than the official one (see Shadowstats, for example). So there we go.

They are just faking everything, from GDP to inflation to price of gold to stock market. Nothing is real anymore.
DustyRah
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February 06, 2014, 05:24:34 AM
 #7670

Gold does not have its original value anymore. Banks are allowed to write out gold accounts as long as they hold just 10% of the total write in amount.

A lot of gold sold in the market now is not real but inflated crap so it does not have its original value anymore.

It is still a valid investment though.
paraipan
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February 06, 2014, 10:01:25 AM
 #7671


Have to clean up "dirt" regularly

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-21/did-raging-fire-burn-down-jpmorgans-gold-vault

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February 07, 2014, 01:48:07 AM
 #7672


BTC was at 1oz-Au parity not very long ago.  I wonder if it will get down to half that?  Seems like it is in striking distance now.  Anyone have any guesses?

The nice thing about diversity is that it's less likely for one to get sawed in half.  I'll admit that I didn't pick up any PM's when I was talking about it a few months ago, but I did diversify into some more property.  Paid a little more than I should have, but I wanted it so I just went ahead and made it happen.


tvbcof
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February 08, 2014, 12:49:20 AM
 #7673


BTC was at 1oz-Au parity not very long ago.  I wonder if it will get down to half that?  Seems like it is in striking distance now.  Anyone have any guesses?

The nice thing about diversity is that it's less likely for one to get sawed in half.  I'll admit that I didn't pick up any PM's when I was talking about it a few months ago, but I did diversify into some more property.  Paid a little more than I should have, but I wanted it so I just went ahead and made it happen.


I did pick up some and locked a lot of it in just under parity. I also used a fair amount of LTC to get silver when it was twice parity.

Crypto might head low enough where I need to start buying back in.

Looks like we touched $619 on Bitstamp, so that's well below half of 1oz parity.  I don't subscribe to cypherdoc's newletter so I don't know if he warned about the possibility of having one's Bitcoin wealth cut in half relative to PMs or not.

At this point I cannot see it very likely that I would want to buy back in.  I had resolved to execute my sales plan as long as we were above $500.  Most of the 2014 sales were in the $800 range, so if we stay above $200-ish I'll probably continue to be a seller.  Though it will be as I need fiat since I got enough already for the projects I have planned...and pay my taxes to boot.  I think it quite possible that we see at least one more big run-up as well so I'll hope that my mid-term sales will catch it if it happens.

I gotta say, it is hard NOT to make money in this crypto thing if a guy has a plan and does not get to greedy.  PMs as well for that matter.


rpietila
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February 08, 2014, 06:30:18 AM
 #7674

Just dont short crypto with leverage Smiley

Just keep at least BTC1 in secure storage at all times, and you'll be very fine.

molecular
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February 09, 2014, 10:14:36 AM
 #7675

Just dont short crypto with leverage Smiley

yeah, cause we know what that leads to (looks at Q4 2011)

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miscreanity
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February 12, 2014, 04:37:58 AM
 #7676

Sinclair has shown he views gold as the means by which fiat transitions to crypto. Whether both Bitcoin and gold will perform synchronously is still a point of debate.
thoughtfan
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February 12, 2014, 10:52:28 AM
 #7677

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/is-it-time-to-buy-gold-YTo4YNI9Ssusk3VsJh~UFw.html

Ed Moy on gold and Bitcon.  Nothing new but interesting, especially given who it is coming from.

If you have a machine on 24/7 why not have a full Bitcoin client running on it to support the network?
TeeBone
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February 12, 2014, 03:21:46 PM
 #7678

Choo-choo mofos, gold train leavin' the station !
Dalmar
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February 12, 2014, 04:28:00 PM
 #7679

Choo-choo mofos, gold train leavin' the station !


Gold is boring... you can beat its YTD gains in a single BTC bounce.
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February 12, 2014, 05:04:14 PM
 #7680

Choo-choo mofos, gold train leavin' the station !


Gold is boring... you can beat its YTD gains in a single BTC bounce.

It's also much more stable and far less likely to go to zero. That's the tradeoff.

Bitcoin is at best a wild gamble, and at worst a pyramid scheme. But yeah, you can make mad loot (temporarily) with btc's volatility.
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