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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1940591 times)
cypherdoc
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March 03, 2014, 09:27:59 PM

the real question is why do the banks want to make it a closed, exclusive exchange?

i can think of only one reason; manipulation.  remember that all they do for Libor is conduct phone calls that ask what interest rate participating banks can borrow money at.  that's been definitively shown to be a scam.

a real exchange that includes all participants in a market would squelch that.

I don't think the motive is sinister, I think it is a matter of political expedience.  Bitcoin's image is not pristine; if this new exchange is open exclusively to big highly-visible and regulated players, there will be less objections from above and below.  In other words, this has better optics.

A foot in the door...


who cares about better optics or political expediency?  Bitcoin is doing just fine, thank you very much.  i don't care that we're at half the high; what matters to me is that we're at 19.13x the price of one year ago exactly.

i think ppl are just panicking after gox's failure.  watch the Bloomberg interview of Silbert.  even he comes across as desperate to me.  he even says they prematurely came forward with this idea to counteract the gox news.  and his desperation to accept regulation at his level sounds to me like he lost Yen to the gox bk.
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Melbustus
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March 03, 2014, 09:28:33 PM


in the same way they "set" interests too low, they can set a Bitcoin price too low.  how do they do that with interest rates?  with an avalanche of digital money typed into a computer screen and artificial buying of UST's via pomo's.  in Bitcoin's case, a too low fix would act like a naked short that tv above alluded to. and if they start losing money when they stray too far from the real price, they just go cry to mommy, the Fed, to cover their losses.  in the meantime, the real Bitcoin will take a hit.

my concern is it's a matter of size; the banks bring billions/trillions of artificial USD's to the table while Bitcoin is still in a nascent phase and potentially manipulable.

Ok, I get it if it comes down to naked shorting as the manipulation tool. There'd have to be a lot of ability for the exchange/system to operate without transparency regarding accounts balancing, etc. Is Barry cool with that?


how can you or i arbitrage when we're not allowed to go into their artificial exchange and buy low to sell high on a real exchange?

I think I was implicitly assuming that the member banks would be operating their own retail-exchanges, similar to NYSE.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
Melbustus
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March 03, 2014, 09:30:19 PM

...and his desperation to accept regulation at his level sounds to me like he lost Yen to the gox bk.

If he was stupid enough to keep non-trivial funds in Gox, then I just lost a lot of respect for him.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
cypherdoc
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March 03, 2014, 09:31:06 PM


I think I was implicitly assuming that the member banks would be operating their own retail-exchanges, similar to NYSE.


do you have a source for this?
Spaceman_Spiff
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March 03, 2014, 09:35:02 PM

i think ppl are just panicking after gox's failure.  watch the Bloomberg interview of Silbert.  even he comes across as desperate to me.  he even says they prematurely came forward with this idea to counteract the gox news.  and his desperation to accept regulation at his level sounds to me like he lost Yen to the gox bk.

Isn't he just using the gox news to get extra publicity for his own exchange?  Put it on the map as "the next big thing".
Odalv
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March 03, 2014, 09:37:17 PM

...and his desperation to accept regulation at his level sounds to me like he lost Yen to the gox bk.

If he was stupid enough to keep non-trivial funds in Gox, then I just lost a lot of respect for him.

Second Market never used GOX prices. He even told he is not buying at GOX.
Melbustus
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March 03, 2014, 09:39:07 PM


I think I was implicitly assuming that the member banks would be operating their own retail-exchanges, similar to NYSE.


do you have a source for this?


Yeah: http://www.coindesk.com/secondmarket-barry-silbert-launch-regulated-us-exchange-this-summer/

Quote
Silbert explained:

的f you want to buy and sell bitcoin you have to go through one of the members, and the members are all going to be regulated businesses. They値l be banks, they値l be MSBs, they値l be bitcoin companies, they値l be broker dealers. The idea is the other exchanges of the world could actually become members of the exchange.

The result, Silbert said, would be an environment similar to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), where individual customers go through brokers such as Fidelity or TD Ameritrade in order to complete transactions. The idea for the market itself is based on the IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) Group.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
smoothie
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March 03, 2014, 09:40:22 PM

The claim that the volatility in bitcoin is "too much" is bullshit.

Bitcoin operates with the current exchanges in a free manner.

Price fixing is bullshit. Just another way to manipulate the price to allow shenanigans to go on behind the scenes with new whales who are in fiat but want in on the Bitcoin train.

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cypherdoc
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March 03, 2014, 09:59:47 PM


I think I was implicitly assuming that the member banks would be operating their own retail-exchanges, similar to NYSE.


do you have a source for this?


Yeah: http://www.coindesk.com/secondmarket-barry-silbert-launch-regulated-us-exchange-this-summer/

Quote
Silbert explained:

的f you want to buy and sell bitcoin you have to go through one of the members, and the members are all going to be regulated businesses. They値l be banks, they値l be MSBs, they値l be bitcoin companies, they値l be broker dealers. The idea is the other exchanges of the world could actually become members of the exchange.

The result, Silbert said, would be an environment similar to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), where individual customers go through brokers such as Fidelity or TD Ameritrade in order to complete transactions. The idea for the market itself is based on the IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) Group.


yeah, i saw that and is the source of all my objections:

"The extensive plans represent a drastic shift in how bitcoins have been traditionally bought and sold through exchanges, with the company adopting a 塗ub-and-spoke model that will find the exchange only interacting with formal members. Non-members will not be allowed to facilitate transactions on the exchange, however."

this is the definition of centralization.  the inner spokes could conceivably control the price while the outsiders at the periphery would be mere spectators.

展e池e going to attempt to slow things down a bit and create a true indication of bitcoin value, once or twice a day."

why?  i like 24/7 fast price action.  price fixes like this are artificial by the sheer nature of lag itself and the cherry picked prices.  who is he to say we need to slow things down and what we have now is artificial?
cypherdoc
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March 03, 2014, 10:07:03 PM

The claim that the volatility in bitcoin is "too much" is bullshit.


this is exactly right.

volatility serves the purpose of shaking out the weak hands who don't or won't understand what we're dealing with here.  and that being the first of its kind global digital currency that is totally transparent and open.  in fact, many ppl do recognize this, and THIS is what accounts for the parabolic rises of over-exuberance that we've witnessed so many times.  w/o the volatility everybody and their mother would be able to climb on board and everyone would be rich.  that's impossible.  bull markets don't work that way; there's going to be winners and losers and only a few of us will make it to the end.  and so we have crashes to balance out the parabolas. 

this is how it has to be.
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March 03, 2014, 10:12:42 PM


yeah, i saw that and is the source of all my objections:

"The extensive plans represent a drastic shift in how bitcoins have been traditionally bought and sold through exchanges, with the company adopting a 塗ub-and-spoke model that will find the exchange only interacting with formal members. Non-members will not be allowed to facilitate transactions on the exchange, however."

this is the definition of centralization.  the inner spokes could conceivably control the price while the outsiders at the periphery would be mere spectators.

Well, no shit.  Welcome to the future of Bitcoin.

Actually, as long as individuals can trade amongst themselves it will be difficult to control.  But as soon as tainting (a-la coin validation) is ready and fully rolled in, people who transact in an opaque manner, or without the proper licensing as though Bitcoin were cash can be controlled (by simply tainting the coins associated with such transactions.)


展e池e going to attempt to slow things down a bit and create a true indication of bitcoin value, once or twice a day."

why?  i like 24/7 fast price action.  price fixes like this are artificial by the sheer nature of lag itself and the cherry picked prices.  who is he to say we need to slow things down and what we have now is artificial?

News flash:  What cypherdoc likes or does not like has just about exactly zero impact on that will happen.


Melbustus
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March 03, 2014, 10:13:44 PM


yeah, i saw that and is the source of all my objections:

"The extensive plans represent a drastic shift in how bitcoins have been traditionally bought and sold through exchanges, with the company adopting a 塗ub-and-spoke model that will find the exchange only interacting with formal members. Non-members will not be allowed to facilitate transactions on the exchange, however."

this is the definition of centralization.  the inner spokes could conceivably control the price while the outsiders at the periphery would be mere spectators.

展e池e going to attempt to slow things down a bit and create a true indication of bitcoin value, once or twice a day."

why?  i like 24/7 fast price action.  price fixes like this are artificial by the sheer nature of lag itself and the cherry picked prices.  who is he to say we need to slow things down and what we have now is artificial?


Agreed. Though assuming normal 24/7 liquid exchanges still exist (outside the hub/spoke deal), arbitrage would be doable. Sounds like the level of price-manipulation possible comes down to the degree to which the mega-exchange interior is willing to naked short.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
cypherdoc
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March 03, 2014, 10:28:10 PM


yeah, i saw that and is the source of all my objections:

"The extensive plans represent a drastic shift in how bitcoins have been traditionally bought and sold through exchanges, with the company adopting a 塗ub-and-spoke model that will find the exchange only interacting with formal members. Non-members will not be allowed to facilitate transactions on the exchange, however."

this is the definition of centralization.  the inner spokes could conceivably control the price while the outsiders at the periphery would be mere spectators.

Well, no shit.  Welcome to the future of Bitcoin.

Actually, as long as individuals can trade amongst themselves it will be difficult to control.  But as soon as tainting (a-la coin validation) is ready and fully rolled in, people who transact in an opaque manner, or without the proper licensing as though Bitcoin were cash can be controlled (by simply tainting the coins associated with such transactions.)

lets hope tainting never happens.

Quote

展e池e going to attempt to slow things down a bit and create a true indication of bitcoin value, once or twice a day."

why?  i like 24/7 fast price action.  price fixes like this are artificial by the sheer nature of lag itself and the cherry picked prices.  who is he to say we need to slow things down and what we have now is artificial?

News flash:  What cypherdoc likes or does not like has just about exactly zero impact on that will happen.



well duh. 

passive aggressive much?
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March 03, 2014, 10:48:09 PM

Price volatility is a measure of how liquid an instrument is... the more liquid the less volatile especially with a decentralized system, which is the goal here. The idea is less collusion and partnering up of whales to corner markets to create dips...

To me reading charts over the years, the volatility of bitcoin is very bullish as it means that we are very early of a large bull run and that near the end you would see more liquidity coming in and less volatility which would mute the critics who say they can't use btc because of volatility. By that time obviously its too late from an investors standpoint but it may be a perfectly obvious choice as a currency to transact for goods and services. At the start of every major bull run you always see volatility... like how it went from $50 back to $2.. but now the swings in % aren't quite as much.. telling me we have a long way to go up before it settles at which point I would say I'm happy to sell there or that there is no need to sell at that point because everything you need is denominated in btc.

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cypherdoc
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March 03, 2014, 10:59:10 PM

Price volatility is a measure of how liquid an instrument is... the more liquid the less volatile especially with a decentralized system, which is the goal here. The idea is less collusion and partnering up of whales to corner markets to create dips...

To me reading charts over the years, the volatility of bitcoin is very bullish as it means that we are very early of a large bull run and that near the end you would see more liquidity coming in and less volatility which would mute the critics who say they can't use btc because of volatility. By that time obviously its too late from an investors standpoint but it may be a perfectly obvious choice as a currency to transact for goods and services. At the start of every major bull run you always see volatility... like how it went from $50 back to $2.. but now the swings in % aren't quite as much.. telling me we have a long way to go up before it settles at which point I would say I'm happy to sell there or that there is no need to sell at that point because everything you need is denominated in btc.

agreed.

in fact, i think it follows the asymptotic issuance curve.
traderCJ
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March 04, 2014, 12:53:30 AM

News flash:  What cypherdoc likes or does not like has just about exactly zero impact on that will happen.

You mean his call for this being the "finale" bull run of gold might be complete shit?  Gasp!  I'll let China know right away.
cypherdoc
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March 04, 2014, 02:56:26 AM

News flash:  What cypherdoc likes or does not like has just about exactly zero impact on that will happen.

You mean his call for this being the "finale" bull run of gold might be complete shit?  Gasp!  I'll let China know right away.

you sound scared.

anyone who names themselves "trader" must have a pretty high view of oneself and their "trades.  let's test that out:

i propose a 1BTC bet that sometime in the next year, Bitcoin will catch gold (hence outperform) and go to parity once again in USD terms as it did in November.  if it does, i win, if it doesn't, you win.  we can each put 1BTC in escrow, hopefully in a smart contract on the blockchain as i've been wanting to test that out.  we can have someone like Smoothie or Melbustus act as the escrow agent who can sign the winnings over to one of us if they are agreeable.

capiche?
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March 04, 2014, 03:07:43 AM

News flash:  What cypherdoc likes or does not like has just about exactly zero impact on that will happen.

You mean his call for this being the "finale" bull run of gold might be complete shit?  Gasp!  I'll let China know right away.

you sound scared.

anyone who names themselves "trader" must have a pretty high view of oneself and their "trades.  let's test that out:

i propose a 1BTC bet that sometime in the next year, Bitcoin will catch gold (hence outperform) and go to parity once again in USD terms as it did in November.  if it does, i win, if it doesn't, you win.  we can each put 1BTC in escrow, hopefully in a smart contract on the blockchain as i've been wanting to test that out.  we can have someone like Smoothie or Melbustus act as the escrow agent who can sign the winnings over to one of us if they are agreeable.

capiche?


Sure, I'd act as an escrow agent to that (3rd sig on a blockchain contract or just normal escrow). Always love a good btc/gold bet. Let's agree beforehand what price-quote sources both parties consider valid.


Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
cypherdoc
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March 04, 2014, 03:08:30 AM

News flash:  What cypherdoc likes or does not like has just about exactly zero impact on that will happen.

You mean his call for this being the "finale" bull run of gold might be complete shit?  Gasp!  I'll let China know right away.

you sound scared.

anyone who names themselves "trader" must have a pretty high view of oneself and their "trades.  let's test that out:

i propose a 1BTC bet that sometime in the next year, Bitcoin will catch gold (hence outperform) and go to parity once again in USD terms as it did in November.  if it does, i win, if it doesn't, you win.  we can each put 1BTC in escrow, hopefully in a smart contract on the blockchain as i've been wanting to test that out.  we can have someone like Smoothie or Melbustus act as the escrow agent who can sign the winnings over to one of us if they are agreeable.

capiche?



Sure, I'd act as an escrow agent to that (3rd sig on a blockchain contract or just normal escrow). Always love a good btc/gold bet. Let's agree beforehand what price-quote sources both parties consider valid.



i'd be happy with Bitstamp.
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March 04, 2014, 03:16:22 AM

News flash:  What cypherdoc likes or does not like has just about exactly zero impact on that will happen.

You mean his call for this being the "finale" bull run of gold might be complete shit?  Gasp!  I'll let China know right away.

you sound scared.

anyone who names themselves "trader" must have a pretty high view of oneself and their "trades.  let's test that out:

i propose a 1BTC bet that sometime in the next year, Bitcoin will catch gold (hence outperform) and go to parity once again in USD terms as it did in November.  if it does, i win, if it doesn't, you win.  we can each put 1BTC in escrow, hopefully in a smart contract on the blockchain as i've been wanting to test that out.  we can have someone like Smoothie or Melbustus act as the escrow agent who can sign the winnings over to one of us if they are agreeable.

capiche?



Sure, I'd act as an escrow agent to that (3rd sig on a blockchain contract or just normal escrow). Always love a good btc/gold bet. Let's agree beforehand what price-quote sources both parties consider valid.



i'd be happy with Bitstamp.


And for the gold side?

Thought: maybe CoinDesk BPI would be better for the btc quote, since any single exchange is always at risk to some degree. Or the winkdex.com !! lol...love their bios: http://winkdex.com/#/about





Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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