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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807728 times)
Vycid
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December 06, 2013, 08:30:37 AM
 #7101

There's around 12 billion ounces of gold in existence and around 12 million Bitcoin. On a relative scale we're at about 1/1000. As old school commodity traders get sick of filing small chunks of their stash to take to CashforGold outside their local tesco stores to day trade, we'll see more and more people turning to Bitcoin. Rally.

Actually... it's estimated to be 5597445575 troy oz, implying less than 1/500. That figure leaves me feeling a little more bearish... I didn't realize we'd come quite that far.

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December 06, 2013, 09:23:11 AM
 #7102

Gold will certainly be around (especially the ladies love it). Will it represent purchasing power remotely comparable to today is a completely different question. I do agree it's a nice hedge against crypto failing. Working my ass of is the only true hedge I have and I would prefer not to.

Same here. It sux. If Bitcoin was "stable" (as in: established to stay) I could probably retire on my stash (while having to be quite modest, though). But as it stand with the high risk I still have to work my ass off so I have a functioning company as retirement.

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December 06, 2013, 09:34:09 AM
 #7103

If this is true (and it surely seems), this one is really BIG:

Bitcoin now legal currency in Germany!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okNhH7EoV6I

What BULLSHIT!

RT has been saying Bitcoin is "legal tender" in germany before (couple months ago). That's bullshit of the highest rank, of course. "legal tender" means the "currency" is mandated by law to be accepted by everyone in the jurisdiction as settlement for any debt.

Germany merely categorized Bitcoin as a sort of "private unit of account" and made clear that you have to pay taxes as mandated by the current taxing regime on bitcoin gains and of course VAT if you sell stuff for BTC.

No new law or anything, just sane clarifications (which is good, of course) on how bitcoin fits into the current german tax regime (which it does: you pay tax, no news here).

EDIT: to be honest, the regulatory situation in germany might actually be on the bad side: the Bafin (german banking regulators) have said that Bitcoin is a security and therefore falls under their regulation (they said this years back, btw). They say trading bitcoins (on behalf of others) requires their permission (i.e a banking license, I guess).

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December 06, 2013, 06:54:39 PM
 #7104

i didn't think so either back then.

Glad to see you've caught up! Of course, the argument is essentially the same as that for gold input costs Smiley

Bitcoin should eventually hold enough value that its stock-to-flow ratio will be greater than any other form of money to date - that's when Bitcoin will have obviated any argument for gold. At this point, it'll be nice to see a correction as low as ~$400.

i even caught evoorhees making a case that mining was irrelevant to the price over on Reddit.

Do you have the link? I remember the statement, but the closest I could find was this.

It's been amusing going through old posts although it seems some of them have become corrupted, maybe due to all the forum breaches.
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December 06, 2013, 09:35:26 PM
 #7105

Mining cost decides price ... yup, thats exactly why a five wheel car costs slightly more than a normal 4 wheel car.

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December 07, 2013, 02:20:35 AM
 #7106


Gold holding sucky, Bitcoin down a bit (like nearly sawed in half in a matter of days...)

Harshest of tokes!  Oh well, been there before.


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December 07, 2013, 03:04:49 AM
 #7107

The good thing about this sell-off is that we will experience a second round of news about the price of bitcoin surpassing the price of gold, again, and this time like butter.

You guys have really come up with somethin'
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December 07, 2013, 04:11:40 AM
 #7108

The good thing about this sell-off is that we will experience a second round of news about the price of bitcoin surpassing the price of gold, again, and this time like butter.

technically the third time, but yeah, you're right.
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December 07, 2013, 05:08:26 AM
 #7109

The good thing about this sell-off is that we will experience a second round of news about the price of bitcoin surpassing the price of gold, again, and this time like butter.

technically the third time, but yeah, you're right.

General Cypherdoc, how big of a wave of new Bitcoin recruits do you think will take advantage of this correction having heard the "thunderclap" of gold Bitcoin parity. Do you think it could have a similar awakening that followed USD parity in 2011?

What do you make of institutional investors changing opinions like Bank of America?

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December 07, 2013, 05:55:38 AM
 #7110

The good thing about this sell-off is that we will experience a second round of news about the price of bitcoin surpassing the price of gold, again, and this time like butter.

technically the third time, but yeah, you're right.

General Cypherdoc, how big of a wave of new Bitcoin recruits do you think will take advantage of this correction having heard the "thunderclap" of gold Bitcoin parity. Do you think it could have a similar awakening that followed USD parity in 2011?

What do you make of institutional investors changing opinions like Bank of America?

now look what you did.

i had closed the lid of my laptop for the nite, wandered off to bed, and then had to look at my Android to see your message.  no ones ever called me General before.  sigh...

---ok, back on the laptop:

there are going to be legions upon legions of newcomers to buy these dips.  i think our Senate hearings was a tipping point for the US which is why you're seeing analysts like David Woo coming forward for the first time giving a truthful, practical outlook for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.  he's a very well respected analyst from BofA who i've seen on CNBS a number of times.  very well spoken and smart.  and Chinese.  he should know, right? Wink  once you get one defector, they'll all defect.

yes, the fact that we pushed over gold twice already has that fact cemented in everyone's brain.  as we come up upon a third time (3's the trick) i'm sure everyone will have their hand poised over the BUY button.  i wouldn't be surprised if a number of my subs weren't part of the selloff that occurred when we hit gold parity as i had quietly told one or two of them privately upon questioning i'd consider selling some BTC once we hit that landmark.  i didn't though.

i just stumbled across this Hong Kong based analyst Joseph Wang who gives us a good insight into the minds of the Chinese:  

http://www.quora.com/Bitcoin/Why-did-the-Chinese-Bitcoin-ban-result-in-the-price-crashing-so-hard

he's of the opinion that the BofC's announcement is actually a bullish sign given that apparently they will be leaving BTCChina and it's customers alone.  they are going to try and firewall off the Bitcoin economy in China so as to prevent a Lehman type failure in the traditional banking system if in the likely event they decided to leverage up going after BTC.  makes perfect sense to me.  read all his other answers to key questions from that site.  very illuminating and bullish.  i think it's the stupid US investors who read a headline like "BofC bans Bitcoins for bankers" and go bonkers.  most of the initial selling has come from them.  the weak hands who don't really understand Bitcoin.

as for me, my retirement fund transfer is due to hit Second Market hopefully on Monday but more likely Tuesday.  so don't tell anyone anything i just said as i need to get my funds into the BIT at the lowest NAV possible come Tuesday.

thank you.  

P.S.: get back to work, Private.
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December 07, 2013, 06:34:27 AM
 #7111

The good thing about this sell-off is that we will experience a second round of news about the price of bitcoin surpassing the price of gold, again, and this time like butter.

technically the third time, but yeah, you're right.

General Cypherdoc, how big of a wave of new Bitcoin recruits do you think will take advantage of this correction having heard the "thunderclap" of gold Bitcoin parity. Do you think it could have a similar awakening that followed USD parity in 2011?

What do you make of institutional investors changing opinions like Bank of America?

now look what you did.

i had closed the lid of my laptop for the nite, wandered off to bed, and then had to look at my Android to see your message.  no ones ever called me General before.  sigh...

---ok, back on the laptop:

there are going to be legions upon legions of newcomers to buy these dips.  i think our Senate hearings was a tipping point for the US which is why you're seeing analysts like David Woo coming forward for the first time giving a truthful, practical outlook for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.  he's a very well respected analyst from BofA who i've seen on CNBS a number of times.  very well spoken and smart.  and Chinese.  he should know, right? Wink  once you get one defector, they'll all defect.

yes, the fact that we pushed over gold twice already has that fact cemented in everyone's brain.  as we come up upon a third time (3's the trick) i'm sure everyone will have their hand poised over the BUY button.  i wouldn't be surprised if a number of my subs weren't part of the selloff that occurred when we hit gold parity as i had quietly told one or two of them privately upon questioning i'd consider selling some BTC once we hit that landmark.  i didn't though.

i just stumbled across this Hong Kong based analyst Joseph Wang who gives us a good insight into the minds of the Chinese:  

http://www.quora.com/Bitcoin/Why-did-the-Chinese-Bitcoin-ban-result-in-the-price-crashing-so-hard

he's of the opinion that the BofC's announcement is actually a bullish sign given that apparently they will be leaving BTCChina and it's customers alone.  they are going to try and firewall off the Bitcoin economy in China so as to prevent a Lehman type failure in the traditional banking system if in the likely event they decided to leverage up going after BTC.  makes perfect sense to me.  read all his other answers to key questions from that site.  very illuminating and bullish.  i think it's the stupid US investors who read a headline like "BofC bans Bitcoins for bankers" and go bonkers.  most of the initial selling has come from them.  the weak hands who don't really understand Bitcoin.

as for me, my retirement fund transfer is due to hit Second Market hopefully on Monday but more likely Tuesday.  so don't tell anyone anything i just said as i need to get my funds into the BIT at the lowest NAV possible come Tuesday.

thank you.  

P.S.: get back to work, Private.

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Vycid
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December 07, 2013, 06:45:45 AM
 #7112

Ah yes, the quiet sound of capitulation.

Time to start buying soon.

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December 07, 2013, 06:50:56 AM
 #7113

We need to read between the lines.

Why do the PBOC made it explicit that all banks and payment processors can't offer Bitcoin services, and go as far as making a ban list? Are not China's banks just PBOC's bitches, and making too much money to care about Bitcoin at all? Also in this nation we don't really care much about the accuracy of wording anyway, we are not a nation of lawyers.

Chances are, that the financial institutions actually had secretly planned to get in Bitcoin, that they have been quenching their thirst for bitcoins for a long time, and it's high time the big daddy should grab their ears and give them a warning.


Also, one would be naive to think that PBOC really cares about common folks' risks. The banks have been pimping gold to their customers since day one of the gold drop, PBOC didn't give a damn.



https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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December 07, 2013, 06:58:05 AM
 #7114

We need to read between the lines.

Why do the PBOC made it explicit that all banks and payment processors can't offer Bitcoin services, and go as far as making a ban list? Are not China's banks just PBOC's bitches, and making too much money to care about Bitcoin at all? Also in this nation we don't really care much about the accuracy of wording anyway, we are not a nation of lawyers.

Chances are, that the financial institutions actually had secretly planned to get in Bitcoin, that they have been quenching their thirst for bitcoins for a long time, and it's high time the big daddy should grab their ears and give them a warning.


Also, one would be naive to think that PBOC really cares about common folks' risks. The banks have been pimping gold to their customers since day one of the gold drop, PBOC didn't give a damn.




PBOC stands to benefit from a large amount of domestic gold if they want to make a move on the dollar's status as the reserve currency.

We can see how important the US's relative gold holdings were in the Bretton Woods system. If China wants to duplicate that success, every ounce of gold sold to a Chinese citizen is an ounce the West doesn't have.

So I don't know if it's necessarily true that they don't care about the individiual Chinese citizen; they just, like most governments, seem to advance the "national interest" (whatever the fuck that means) before the interest of their people as a collective whole.

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December 07, 2013, 09:42:37 AM
 #7115

Reminds me of the Japanese when they were booming buying up California real estate and then taking a bath on it.  The Chinese are buying up all the gold around the same time it might become irrelevant.   The true innovations might still be out west.  Time will tell.
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December 07, 2013, 09:46:44 AM
 #7116

Perhaps China is protecting Bitcoin from an overrun and/or keeping the price low so that gov people can buy in.

When we finally break gold parity it will be all the more shocking because right now the gold believers can entrench their views by saying, "See? It can never beat gold. Everyone knows that. Bitcoin was slayed by the golden dragon. Hahahahaaa."
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December 07, 2013, 11:03:45 AM
 #7117

Perhaps China is protecting Bitcoin from an overrun and/or keeping the price low so that gov people can buy in.

When we finally break gold parity it will be all the more shocking because right now the gold believers can entrench their views by saying, "See? It can never beat gold. Everyone knows that. Bitcoin was slayed by the golden dragon. Hahahahaaa."

Oh, you just inspire me of a new conspiracy theory: perhaps China(or some other mighty organizations) is busy liquidating gold and accumulating bitcoins, so they are putting a temporary check on the price parity.

This actually makes sense if you analyze the sequence of events during these two months: bitcoins used to be available in large quantities only on foreign exchanges, thus CCP can't get hold of them without moving large amount of fiats into foreign exchanges, which will likely attract attentions. So they may decide to first prop up the bitcoin price in China, gradually siphoning bitcoins into Chinese exchanges, then issue the PBOC statement to creak a market panic, frighten the Chinese speculators to undersell the bitcoins they just bought, and thereby accumulating many bitcoins using yuans being moved entirely within Chinese financial system, which they can freely manipulate to hide their true identities.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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December 07, 2013, 11:42:29 AM
 #7118

Holy shit that's the missing puzzle piece (in the conspiracy theory)!

It's well known that China has been encouraging its citizens to stockpile gold, probably so they could confiscate it if needed and as a way of making their citizens richer (a sort of leveraged play on gold).

I was thinking they might be doing the same thing with Bitcoin now. But the problem with the theory was always that they can't really confiscate bitcoins. However, they can sort of do it by manipulating the market and media, laws, etc. It's exactly what you'd expect a powerful and strategically cunning government to do.

It's actually a pretty great strategy. Get your citizens to buy, and if the price goes down it's the same as if they gambled it away in Macau. The government loses nothing much. If the price goes up you get more tax money and economic growth, and then with your strong control of media and everything you can "shake the tree" and still be able to buy in yourself at decent prices once Bitcoin is more solidly a thing.

Lower risk and higher reward than just buying in with your own money right away.
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December 07, 2013, 01:00:29 PM
 #7119

Holy shit that's the missing puzzle piece (in the conspiracy theory)!

It's well known that China has been encouraging its citizens to stockpile gold, probably so they could confiscate it if needed and as a way of making their citizens richer (a sort of leveraged play on gold).

I was thinking they might be doing the same thing with Bitcoin now. But the problem with the theory was always that they can't really confiscate bitcoins. However, they can sort of do it by manipulating the market and media, laws, etc. It's exactly what you'd expect a powerful and strategically cunning government to do.

It's actually a pretty great strategy. Get your citizens to buy, and if the price goes down it's the same as if they gambled it away in Macau. The government loses nothing much. If the price goes up you get more tax money and economic growth, and then with your strong control of media and everything you can "shake the tree" and still be able to buy in yourself at decent prices once Bitcoin is more solidly a thing.

Lower risk and higher reward than just buying in with your own money right away.

If this is true it would confirm what I have been saying for a while: hoarding bitcoins is good, it's an essential safeguard for our liberty lest all coins go into the hands of governments.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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December 07, 2013, 01:17:40 PM
 #7120

Yeah but the interesting thing is it's probably individual officials buying mostly, rather than having some kind of government treasury hold wallet data for the government as a whole or any department. Bitcoin is so good at what it does that it could rip these bureaucracies apart, since for the first time each individual's wealth isn't contingent on the web of trust in the political world. It's a way for even government officials to opt out. And of course not just in China.
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