Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[User705]

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Some people in this thread think gold is on its way to 0 and its dead.
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Not zero... I'd say, though, that it'll eventually lose *most* of it's monetary-use premium. That's a bit tough to tease out; the other main domains for gold are industrial use and jewelry. Industrial use accounts for what, about $300/oz? And then the demand for jewelry is all convoluted with its historical moneyness, so I don't know how to treat that (though I'm aware that about 50% of above-ground gold is estimated to be jewelry). So maybe the floor once gold is finally (and correctly) no longer seen as a monetary instrument/asset is somewhere in the $300-$600 range.

Monetary-use premium? Where exactly is it used for money these days? Porcfest? A few gun shops in Arizona? A few village merchants in remote areas of Myanmar? 

I would say that right now it's "moneyness" accounts for a VERY small percent of its current demand, and it's "hoardiness" (similar to moneyness but little to do with transactional value) as well as its speculative value, is responsible for most of its non-industrial, non-convoluted-with-jewelry demand.
Does that make sense? Obviously something that is used as money is in demand to be used as money, and usually things used as money are also good for hoarding. HOWEVER - what we're seeing with gold is rather unprecedented - most of the world has completely abandoned it as a transactional currency. But much of the world still hoards it! Central banks (esp. eastern CBs), asians, libertardian American stackers, etc. The demand is not for gold as a transactional currency - demand would be much higher if that were the case - but for gold as a hunk of metal to hoard for various reasons - inflation hedge, SHTF hedge (however misguided that may be), deflationary store of value (as unsuccessful as that's been the past couple years.)

I'm not necessarily saying gold ISN'T headed for $0, but if even a small fraction of its former demand as a transactional currency were restored (in addition to retaining its value as a hunk o' hoardiness), combined with the artificial supply from the paper market collapsing (which it won't, ever) it would indeed make gold holders quite happy. It's a pipe dream, and it's not MY pipe dream, but it's one of many things that could happen, and that's why Goat has a small % of his portfolio in PMs.

That rant would likely apply just as much to bitcoin as it's current main purpose is very much the same hoardiness you attribute to gold.  Granted the current trend lines seem to be headed in the opposite directions for XBT vs Gold in that regard.  But long term who knows.

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[Holliday]

...
Some people in this thread think gold is on its way to 0 and its dead.
...

Not zero... I'd say, though, that it'll eventually lose *most* of it's monetary-use premium. That's a bit tough to tease out; the other main domains for gold are industrial use and jewelry. Industrial use accounts for what, about $300/oz? And then the demand for jewelry is all convoluted with its historical moneyness, so I don't know how to treat that (though I'm aware that about 50% of above-ground gold is estimated to be jewelry). So maybe the floor once gold is finally (and correctly) no longer seen as a monetary instrument/asset is somewhere in the $300-$600 range.

Monetary-use premium? Where exactly is it used for money these days? Porcfest? A few gun shops in Arizona? A few village merchants in remote areas of Myanmar? 

I would say that right now it's "moneyness" accounts for a VERY small percent of its current demand, and it's "hoardiness" (similar to moneyness but little to do with transactional value) as well as its speculative value, is responsible for most of its non-industrial, non-convoluted-with-jewelry demand.
Does that make sense? Obviously something that is used as money is in demand to be used as money, and usually things used as money are also good for hoarding. HOWEVER - what we're seeing with gold is rather unprecedented - most of the world has completely abandoned it as a transactional currency. But much of the world still hoards it! Central banks (esp. eastern CBs), asians, libertardian American stackers, etc. The demand is not for gold as a transactional currency - demand would be much higher if that were the case - but for gold as a hunk of metal to hoard for various reasons - inflation hedge, SHTF hedge (however misguided that may be), deflationary store of value (as unsuccessful as that's been the past couple years.)

I'm not necessarily saying gold ISN'T headed for $0, but if even a small fraction of its former demand as a transactional currency were restored (in addition to retaining its value as a hunk o' hoardiness), combined with the artificial supply from the paper market collapsing (which it won't, ever) it would indeed make gold holders quite happy. It's a pipe dream, and it's not MY pipe dream, but it's one of many things that could happen, and that's why Goat has a small % of his portfolio in PMs.

That rant would likely apply just as much to bitcoin as it's current main purpose is very much the same hoardiness you attribute to gold.  Granted the current trend lines seem to be headed in the opposite directions for XBT vs Gold in that regard.  But long term who knows.

That's the beauty of Bitcoin. It can have all the "hoardiness" of Gold while being extremely easy to transact with as well. Hence Gold 2.0.

[billyjoeallen]

...
Some people in this thread think gold is on its way to 0 and its dead.
...

Not zero... I'd say, though, that it'll eventually lose *most* of it's monetary-use premium. That's a bit tough to tease out; the other main domains for gold are industrial use and jewelry. Industrial use accounts for what, about $300/oz? And then the demand for jewelry is all convoluted with its historical moneyness, so I don't know how to treat that (though I'm aware that about 50% of above-ground gold is estimated to be jewelry). So maybe the floor once gold is finally (and correctly) no longer seen as a monetary instrument/asset is somewhere in the $300-$600 range.

Monetary-use premium? Where exactly is it used for money these days? Porcfest? A few gun shops in Arizona? A few village merchants in remote areas of Myanmar? 

I would say that right now it's "moneyness" accounts for a VERY small percent of its current demand, and it's "hoardiness" (similar to moneyness but little to do with transactional value) as well as its speculative value, is responsible for most of its non-industrial, non-convoluted-with-jewelry demand.
Does that make sense? Obviously something that is used as money is in demand to be used as money, and usually things used as money are also good for hoarding. HOWEVER - what we're seeing with gold is rather unprecedented - most of the world has completely abandoned it as a transactional currency. But much of the world still hoards it! Central banks (esp. eastern CBs), asians, libertardian American stackers, etc. The demand is not for gold as a transactional currency - demand would be much higher if that were the case - but for gold as a hunk of metal to hoard for various reasons - inflation hedge, SHTF hedge (however misguided that may be), deflationary store of value (as unsuccessful as that's been the past couple years.)

I'm not necessarily saying gold ISN'T headed for $0, but if even a small fraction of its former demand as a transactional currency were restored (in addition to retaining its value as a hunk o' hoardiness), combined with the artificial supply from the paper market collapsing (which it won't, ever) it would indeed make gold holders quite happy. It's a pipe dream, and it's not MY pipe dream, but it's one of many things that could happen, and that's why Goat has a small % of his portfolio in PMs.

That rant would likely apply just as much to bitcoin as it's current main purpose is very much the same hoardiness you attribute to gold.  Granted the current trend lines seem to be headed in the opposite directions for XBT vs Gold in that regard.  But long term who knows.

That's the beauty of Bitcoin. It can have all the "hoardiness" of Gold while being extremely easy to transact with as well. Hence Gold 2.0.

I think of gold as analog bitcoin.

[chessnut]

I think of gold as analog bitcoin.
[/quote]

lol nice one

[Melbustus]

I think of gold as analog bitcoin.

Bingo. But it's worse. Analog signals can be transmitted at the speed of light. Gold cannot.

[jofus87]

I think of gold as analog bitcoin.

Bingo. But it's worse. Analog signals can be transmitted at the speed of light. Gold cannot.

Wanna see how hard I can throw? 

[molecular]

I think of gold as analog bitcoin.

Bingo. But it's worse. Analog signals can be transmitted at the speed of light. Gold cannot.

But gold can be used (probably is used) to transmit bitcoins.

I like "analog bitcoin".

How about "gold is bitcoin 0.1 alpha"?

[tvbcof]

I think of gold as analog bitcoin.

Bingo. But it's worse. Analog signals can be transmitted at the speed of light. Gold cannot.

Ya...it can be transmitted at that speed of light right into some thief's control and it has happened with a truly impressive percentage of the currency base.

Everything has it's pros and cons.

More rarely, bitcoins can be transmitted at the speed of light right into the void of time-space by using a public key which is off by one character or fucking up on a script.  In this way it does have an analogy to gold which can go down with some sailing ship or be forgotten about in some treasure chest.  But gold lost in this way is vastly easier to recover than it's Bitcoin analog and recovery happens with some regularity.

[Melbustus]

I think of gold as analog bitcoin.

Bingo. But it's worse. Analog signals can be transmitted at the speed of light. Gold cannot.

Ya...it can be transmitted at that speed of light right into some thief's control and it has happened with a truly impressive percentage of the currency base.

Everything has it's pros and cons.

More rarely, bitcoins can be transmitted at the speed of light right into the void of time-space by using a public key which is off by one character or fucking up on a script.  In this way it does have an analogy to gold which can go down with some sailing ship or be forgotten about in some treasure chest.  But gold lost in this way is vastly easier to recover than it's Bitcoin analog and recovery happens with some regularity.

You know as well as I do that those issues are:

1) Exaggerated due to the immaturity of the ecosystem. The tools will (are) getting much better/idiot-resistant.

2) Present with pretty everything since the dawn of time. How much gold has been stolen over the centuries? Quite possibly most of the above-ground tonnage. Petty theft, digging up tombs, crusades, wars, you name it... The history of humanity is fraught with fighting over, and theft of, gold.

[tvbcof]

Bingo. But it's worse. Analog signals can be transmitted at the speed of light. Gold cannot.

Ya...it can be transmitted at that speed of light right into some thief's control and it has happened with a truly impressive percentage of the currency base.

Everything has it's pros and cons.
...

You know as well as I do that those issues are:

1) Exaggerated due to the immaturity of the ecosystem. The tools will (are) getting much better/idiot-resistant.
...

Any day now...

I've made my BTC holdings as secure as my PM holdings, but at the expense of making my BTC almost as difficult to use as my gold.

Obviously I see a lot of the advantages of Bitcoin in terms of mobility and it's a big part of the reason that I'm dinking with it.  I'm just saying that securing one's private key is not a trivial problem.  Those who think it is or treat it like it is may have the mis-fortune of no longer having the problem.  And again, this is borne out by a huge amount of evidence (which does not appear to me to be slowing down much yet.)

[cypherdoc]

I think of gold as analog bitcoin.

Bingo. But it's worse. Analog signals can be transmitted at the speed of light. Gold cannot.

Ya...it can be transmitted at that speed of light right into some thief's control and it has happened with a truly impressive percentage of the currency base.

Everything has it's pros and cons.

More rarely, bitcoins can be transmitted at the speed of light right into the void of time-space by using a public key which is off by one character or fucking up on a script.  In this way it does have an analogy to gold which can go down with some sailing ship or be forgotten about in some treasure chest.  But gold lost in this way is vastly easier to recover than it's Bitcoin analog and recovery happens with some regularity.

you do know of course that being off by one character will not lose you your coins.

and sending from a cold storage wallet is trivial.

[Melbustus]

Any day now...

You don't think it's *MUCH* better than 2011 or 2012?

I've made my BTC holdings as secure as my PM holdings, but at the expense of making my BTC almost as difficult to use as my gold.

Do you periodically put a moderate amount of "daily spending" gold in an online wallet or on your phone for day-to-day use? What app do you use? All I've figured out to do with my gold is show an old half-eagle to friends as a quaint token of a bygone era.

I'm just saying that securing one's private key is not a trivial problem.  Those who think it is or treat it like it is may have the mis-fortune of no longer having the problem.  And again, this is borne out by a huge amount of evidence (which does not appear to me to be slowing down much yet.)

Indeed it is not a trivial problem. But it *is* getting much better. Armory is great for cold storage, there are several very usable, reasonably secure Android wallets for daily use, blockchain.info is great for online-spending money, etc...

Yes, web-wallets and poorly secured stuff still get hacked. But a much smaller percentage of the total float than a couple years ago, as a result both of people being smarter about it, and the existence of better tools. The days of 25,000BTC thefts from unencrypted QT wallets are hopefully over (condolences to allinvain).

[Holliday]

Any day now...

I've made my BTC holdings as secure as my PM holdings, but at the expense of making my BTC almost as difficult to use as my gold.

Obviously I see a lot of the advantages of Bitcoin in terms of mobility and it's a big part of the reason that I'm dinking with it.  I'm just saying that securing one's private key is not a trivial problem.  Those who think it is or treat it like it is may have the mis-fortune of no longer having the problem.  And again, this is borne out by a huge amount of evidence (which does not appear to me to be slowing down much yet.)

I can confidently say that my bitcoin holdings are far more secure than my precious metal holdings.

[tvbcof]

you do know of course that being off by one character will not lose you your coins.

OK.  Prove it.  Send your stash to: '1CYPHERpEiaoYk94dZQ4WLhirkgPSUgnDj' and let us know when you (or anyone) get them back.

And while you are at it, can you tell us what became of the weeks worth of profits that Mt. Gox sent using the faulty code the Magical Fux hacked out?

and sending from a cold storage wallet is trivial.

And so is actually using it...if you keep your paper wallet in your leather wallet...

[cypherdoc]

Any day now...

I've made my BTC holdings as secure as my PM holdings, but at the expense of making my BTC almost as difficult to use as my gold.

Obviously I see a lot of the advantages of Bitcoin in terms of mobility and it's a big part of the reason that I'm dinking with it.  I'm just saying that securing one's private key is not a trivial problem.  Those who think it is or treat it like it is may have the mis-fortune of no longer having the problem.  And again, this is borne out by a huge amount of evidence (which does not appear to me to be slowing down much yet.)

I can confidently say that my bitcoin holdings are far more secure than my precious metal holdings.

and far more easy to use.

[tvbcof]

Any day now...

I've made my BTC holdings as secure as my PM holdings, but at the expense of making my BTC almost as difficult to use as my gold.

Obviously I see a lot of the advantages of Bitcoin in terms of mobility and it's a big part of the reason that I'm dinking with it.  I'm just saying that securing one's private key is not a trivial problem.  Those who think it is or treat it like it is may have the mis-fortune of no longer having the problem.  And again, this is borne out by a huge amount of evidence (which does not appear to me to be slowing down much yet.)

I can confidently say that my bitcoin holdings are far more secure than my precious metal holdings.

I've lost secret keys too so you are not alone.  None contained over a trivial amount of BTC...or at least not at the time of the (usually deliberate) loss/abandonment...

[Holliday]

The days of 25,000BTC thefts from unencrypted QT wallets are hopefully over (condolences to allinvain).

I was just thinking about him (thanks to the discussion here). That theft happened a short time after I got involved with Bitcoin and was one of the reasons I bothered to take a good look at my security practices. There was no Armory software at the time (or I hadn't heard of it yet) so I simply bought dedicated offline hardware for creating private keys (with the reference client). This was all done inside a TrueCrypt encrypted volume.

Of course, things have improved a lot since then and my methods have changed, but I would probably still be quite comfortable with that original method.

Edit: I still think it's fishy that the dude's name was "allinvain". I mean wtf.

[Holliday]

you do know of course that being off by one character will not lose you your coins.

OK.  Prove it.  Send your stash to: '1CYPHERpEiaoYk94dZQ4WLhirkgPSUgnDj' and let us know when you (or anyone) get them back.

You can't. That address doesn't pass the checksum.

[cypherdoc]

OK.  Prove it.  Send your stash to: '1CYPHERpEiaoYk94dZQ4WLhirkgPSUgnDj' and let us know when you (or anyone) get them back.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Address

"Bitcoin addresses are case-sensitive. Bitcoin addresses should be copied and pasted using the computer's clipboard wherever possible. If you hand-key a Bitcoin address, and each character is not transcribed exactly - including capitalization - the incorrect address will most likely be rejected by the Bitcoin software. You will have to check your entry and try again.
The probability that a mistyped address is accepted as being valid is 1 in 2^32, that is, approximately 1 in 4.29 billion.

[cypherdoc]

And so is actually using it...if you keep your paper wallet in your leather wallet...

as a matter of fact, i do.

it's called a privkey QR code and it's BIP38 encrypted via bitaddress.org.  if i wanted to pay you this minute, i'd whip it out, scan it with the cold storage function from Mycelium into my android's RAM, unencrypt it with my simple 8 character pwd, and send you the coin.  the privkey is wiped from RAM immediately when i close the program.  

instant cold storage access in about 1 minute.  in fact, i'm carrying around 5.869 BTC in it right now, more out of curiosity waiting for someone to steal it.  been that way for about 2 mo now ever since it came out.