[XMR] Monero Speculation

[nioc]

This is the latest scare. Pulling people over and if you have too much cash without an explanation they like they seize it.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/21/us/asset-seizures/

In the case of the two poker players in Iowa, months after their money was taken, they reached a settlement in which most of the money —$90,000 — was returned. They told CNN they believed it was the best deal they could have made at the time. Now, however, they are suing to get the rest of the money back and have asked for unspecified damages. The state of Iowa isn't giving it back and is not backing down.

This is the classic mistake: To settle for getting 90% of the money back. Now they are suing after the settlement. The question becomes are their chances of success more or less now?  
Edit: These guys are poker players yet they do not seem to understand the concept of bluffing. My bet is with the state on this one.

Let's assume they are professional poker players. That being the case the $100K was probably essential to their livelihood. If you are a baker and your bakery is seized, you don't really have the luxury of waiting ages for the case to play out in court to see if you might get it back.

They were pro players - they are also not the only poker players I know who have had this happen to them. I can think of 5 off the top of my head in the last 12 months all very similar stories.

It seems just a little bit too coincidental to me.

They took the settlement because 90% today is better than 100% in 2 years time. This stuff happens more often than hits the headlines.

What I meant was that it's a bit too coincidental that poker-players in particular are being targeted. It almost looks systematic. Figure out who's a relatively successful poker-player and so forth..

They will stop anybody and everybody.  They need no cause to seize cash or property.  Guilty till proven innocent.  It's been going on for years and is getting more prevalent as time goes on because it is a successful means of raising funds for local police and towns.

This is the US we are talking about.

[mmortal03]

Second, having more uses brings more people, liquidity, decentralization, and hash rate. All are good, directly or indirectly, for Monero's security and usefulness.

I think this is pretty important, and we've discussed several times since the start of Monero. If the only thing you can do with Monero is illicit trade, then sellers will just dump it as soon as they get it, in exchange for something they can actually spend. No willingness to hold means no store of value at all. For people to hold money they have to be able to use it for unknown future purchase needs, and that requires wide acceptability and use. You can't live on drugs alone.

With things like xmr.to making it easy to transact in bitcoins by way of moneroj, you might still want to hold the XMR for the purpose of maintaining your future anonymity needs. Of course, there are other concerns that would likely come into play in this sort of calculus, like the expected future price volatility of Bitcoin vs. Monero.

I am not saying that I'd want to make my transactions public. Rather, there isn't enough incentive to switch to monero JUST because you can keep such trivial transactions private. It's not a big enough motivation for most people.

I'm with you on this. Hopefully, as Monero's development matures/progresses, so will the incentives to switch to it.

[jehst]

XMR is about to pass NMC's market cap. Passing PPC is also possible in the near-term. It should raise some eyebrows and increase XMR's visibility.

[mmortal03]

I have to say that I really don't, and I think the vast majority (or at least a good number of ordinary folks) of the world doesn't. More important things to care about.

It is actually pretty clear you are correct, if you look at how the whole commercial and government spying industry has developed. It's not the case that people aren't aware of it, but most really and truly don't care.

I think people care, its just that they feel powerless to stop it. Kind of like "yeah, but what are yah gonna do?" I guess the answer would be to use cash for everything, but for some people they don't feel safe or for whatever reason there's a combination of things that outweighs the lack of privacy.

What if inflation exists to dissuade people from just putting cash under their mattresses... so the government can better track their spending?

[mmortal03]

"I value my virginity. But I'm not anal about it.." See how that works?

There's definitely a joke in there about anal, and the concept of maintaining one's virginity by way of it.

[smooth]

XMR is about to pass NMC's market cap. Passing PPC is also possible in the near-term. It should raise some eyebrows and increase XMR's visibility.

Agree. We're already solidly in top 10 status when the tokens are removed, and as such we have started to get more noticed in a variety of places. Passing one or both of those old-school altcoins would bring even more visibility.

EDIT: we're above NMC right now!

[Quicken]

XMR is about to pass NMC's market cap. Passing PPC is also possible in the near-term. It should raise some eyebrows and increase XMR's visibility.

I think the big awareness point in market cap terms is 8 figures in USD. Passing PPC would put XMR well on the way. :-)

[Bassica]

The market is crazy right now. 2k coins back to 0.0024 and someone is still market buying everything up to 0.0029. That's an insane spread.

a few hours ago we had a 100btc buy wall... maybe he got a little impatient

Yeah course, very very weird price action though. Reeks of insider trading if there happens to be a big announcement around the corner.

Could simply be anticipation for Monday's news (because it's always on a Monday).

It's mainly because bids are not getting filled. I had similair issues before. You place some bids close to the action, action keeps moving up alongside with everybody else's bids. Eventually you just want to pull the trigger. Also, if you're investing for 1-3 years instead of trading the shortterm waves, difference between entering at .0026 or 28 isn't that significant. If you're a trader, that could be the difference between success and failure.

[opennux]

"I value my virginity. But I'm not anal about it.." See how that works?

There's definitely a joke in there about anal, and the concept of maintaining one's virginity by way of it.

So many layers. 

[TrueCryptonaire]

In a couple of days we should cross 0.003... The longer the crossing takes, the more violent it will be. 

[MataKhobRazi]

It seems hard to go higher than 0.0028 for the moment

[TrueCryptonaire]

It seems hard to go higher than 0.0028 for the moment

24hr High
0.00297500

[dEBRUYNE]

In a couple of days we should cross 0.003... The longer the crossing takes, the more violent it will be. 

I am sensing a similair pattern as to when 0.00194 broke.

[Its About Sharing]

Question - what are the chances the huge consistent volume on Poloniex is sort of a planned exchange of hands, so to speak? I am talking manipulation. I mean is this possible, likely, or how would we even know?

My main feeling is that we are seeing (mostly) large BTC holders lead the pack into the next boom - anonymous Crypto's. I think they are acquiring and NOT wanting the price to run. You can see the buying dry up at key levels, a wait, price comes down, then more buying. This is just a guess, noting that Risto speaks of it.

Regarding the tech, development/team, etc., everything is pointing to Monero really being the best anonymous crypto out there. I watch DRK, I mean Dash, and have had too many questions come up. With Monero, my main hope/concern is just making the blockchain substantially smaller, though I know space is probably not a huge issue...yet.

Thx in advance,
IAS

[Hueristic]

Question - what are the chances the huge consistent volume on Poloniex is sort of a planned exchange of hands, so to speak? I am talking manipulation. I mean is this possible, likely, or how would we even know?

My main feeling is that we are seeing (mostly) large BTC holders lead the pack into the next boom - anonymous Crypto's. I think they are acquiring and NOT wanting the price to run. You can see the buying dry up at key levels, a wait, price comes down, then more buying. This is just a guess, noting that Risto speaks of it.

Regarding the tech, development/team, etc., everything is pointing to Monero really being the best anonymous crypto out there. I watch DRK, I mean Dash, and have had too many questions come up. With Monero, my main hope/concern is just making the blockchain substantially smaller, though I know space is probably not a huge issue...yet.

Thx in advance,
IAS

Anything is "possible" but if that were the case I don't think we would have seen the price almost double from a 75 BTC dump.

[smooth]

Question - what are the chances the huge consistent volume on Poloniex is sort of a planned exchange of hands, so to speak? I am talking manipulation. I mean is this possible, likely, or how would we even know?

If anyone thinks these minuscule 100 000 USD/day (or less) unregulated markets are not manipulated they are being pretty naive. (Which is not to say much bigger markets aren't manipulated too, because they certainly are.)

It's part of the terrain you have to accept if you are trading cryptos.

As far as reading what specific manipulation is going on, what the manipulators are trying to accomplish, and whether and how you can trade with or against that for profit, that all gets a lot harder. But its easier if you are at least realistic about the landscape.

[Hueristic]

Question - what are the chances the huge consistent volume on Poloniex is sort of a planned exchange of hands, so to speak? I am talking manipulation. I mean is this possible, likely, or how would we even know?

If anyone thinks these minuscule 100 000 USD/day (or less) unregulated markets are not manipulated they are being pretty naive. (Which is not to say much bigger markets aren't manipulated too, because they certainly are.)

It's part of the terrain you have to accept if you are trading cryptos.

As far as reading what specific manipulation is going on, what the manipulators are trying to accomplish, and whether and how you can trade with or against that for profit, that all gets a lot harder. But its easier if you are at least realistic about the landscape.

Of course it's being manipulated to some extent but I think he means controlled by a very few. I.E. I think his question was really one of distribution.

[smooth]

Question - what are the chances the huge consistent volume on Poloniex is sort of a planned exchange of hands, so to speak? I am talking manipulation. I mean is this possible, likely, or how would we even know?

If anyone thinks these minuscule 100 000 USD/day (or less) unregulated markets are not manipulated they are being pretty naive. (Which is not to say much bigger markets aren't manipulated too, because they certainly are.)

It's part of the terrain you have to accept if you are trading cryptos.

As far as reading what specific manipulation is going on, what the manipulators are trying to accomplish, and whether and how you can trade with or against that for profit, that all gets a lot harder. But its easier if you are at least realistic about the landscape.

Of course it's being manipulated to some extent but I think he means controlled by a very few. I.E. I think his question was really one of distribution.

Yes and I'm saying that at 100 K USD daily volume it could be more or less controlled by a few or one person a lot of the time. Doesn't even need to be a big whale at all. These are just tiny amounts. When I've traded I've usually tried hard not to move the market too much and even then I still moved it. Anyone trying to move it can do the opposite.

As far as distribution you never really know, other than your own holdings. And even if you know the overall distribution you don't know the distribution that is active in the markets right now. The latter is always much, much smaller. Same with any other coin.

[rpietila]

Haven't done the approximate distribution analysis recently, but due to reasons outlined in previous analyses, I believe there are 5-8 people with 100k or more at the moment. 100k XMR is < 100k USD, so we are talking about tiny amounts.

There are that many people capable in showing a big sell side and an almost unlimited number of people capable in putting bid walls.

The market is so tiny that a manipulation for its own sake is doomed to lose. If the intent is to acquire or divest coins, faking the opposite is of course termed as "manipulation" but the whales have so much going against them due to illiquidity, how about just allowing this to them?

A successful speculation is buying low, selling high, and (I believe) not going to momentum trading, at least if the amount to be traded with is higher than X00 XMR.

[Anon136]

Haven't done the approximate distribution analysis recently, but due to reasons outlined in previous analyses, I believe there are 5-8 people with 100k or more at the moment. 100k XMR is < 100k USD, so we are talking about tiny amounts.

There are that many people capable in showing a big sell side and an almost unlimited number of people capable in putting bid walls.

The market is so tiny that a manipulation for its own sake is doomed to lose. If the intent is to acquire or divest coins, faking the opposite is of course termed as "manipulation" but the whales have so much going against them due to illiquidity, how about just allowing this to them?

A successful speculation is buying low, selling high, and (I believe) not going to momentum trading, at least if the amount to be traded with is higher than X00 XMR.

Hey risto. How much xmr do you have to have inorder to be considered a whale? Curious to see if i count.