[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

Thing is, if bitcoin tanks... doesn't it rake the whole space down with it?

Good question.  I think it depends if people generally believe in the overall idea/concept of "cryptocurrency" OR if only "bitcoin" IS still "crypto" by itself alone.

Back when BTC market dominance was consistently over 90% I think the latter was probably true, but nowadays after BTC has given up so much share and so many of the alts have taken so much more, seems to me like the former may be true now.

Will "bitcoin people" just go back to fiat money if BTC implodes, or will they look to move to Facebook from MySpace instead?

Seems at least 50-50 to me...

P.S. {Edit} Update: here's the article where it says, near the end, that in theory up to 5 different bitcoins could be split apart:

     https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/countdown-segwit-these-are-dates-keep-eye/

...and, yes, it says it's very unlikely but all the same I'm curious what all you guys here, smarter than me, think what's actually most likely to happen?

Ohh what a tangled web we weave...

For those who haven't noticed yet, rehrar has revamped the official website:

https://getmonero.org/

Step in the right direction.

Can't help to feel that the btc uncertainty can be positive for monero in the short run.

Is it mean spirited of me to be praying for SegWit to gigantically fail?

Self defeating as it will hurt all crypto across the board.

[1714745085]

1714745085

[explorer]

Big jump in hash rate since I last checked, and a big drop in active nodes.  People have moved coins where they need to be and settling in to wait...

[dEBRUYNE]

Big jump in hash rate since I last checked, and a big drop in active nodes .  People have moved coins where they need to be and settling in to wait...

MoneroBlocks was offline for a few days. Therefore, also keeping in mind that they most likely had to restart their daemon, it is probably not seeing all the (full) nodes yet. This geomap shows a relatively stable node count:

https://monerobase.com/geomap/

[lazybeats]

Guys, please stop bother yourself with the price speculation. Just follow TrueCryptonaire posts. Every time he says the price is going deep down - the price rises up and every time he joins/buys Monero and starts praising it - the price drops down. This happens in every single f.ucking price prediction post he has made trough out the years. I can't stop laughing when he predicts something.

I watched him spruik XVG at 4 sats a day or 2 before it shot to 220.

[Celebrity]

Big jump in hash rate since I last checked, and a big drop in active nodes.  People have moved coins where they need to be and settling in to wait...

This information is correct. As a monero miner, I'm feeling very unfomfortable with the current situation. Active node number declined dramatically which is very bad for us. Now I wonder how the team will react against it to provide a solution. By the way, watching poloniex Monero charts very carefully.

[Febo]

Big jump in hash rate since I last checked, and a big drop in active nodes.  People have moved coins where they need to be and settling in to wait...

This information is correct. As a monero miner, I'm feeling very unfomfortable with the current situation. Active node number declined dramatically which is very bad for us. Now I wonder how the team will react against it to provide a solution. By the way, watching poloniex Monero charts very carefully.

What? Do you have any numbers?

Monero nodes seen in the last 72h : 1182.   Monero nodes only increase.

Now a hypothetical question. Can you also explain why you as a Monero miner would be concerned with Monero having less nodes?   I do understand it is bad fro users in Africa and central Asia, where is little nodes, but what that has to do with you?

[aminorex]

Supply consists of dishoarding, transaction churn, and mining.  Mining means almost nothing, relative to daily volume.  Dishoarding seems to have come to its end, at this price, leaving market makers and transactional flips to dominate the exchanges.  The flip rate appears to be, therefore, about 3mm USD per diem.  Using pq=mv and assuming the pessimal velocity of 365 / escrow time (21d) = 17.4, we can estimate the transactional float as 3mm*365 / 17.4 = m = 63mm USD = 1.3mm XMR. (The global velocity is then about 1.6, which is rather low for a healthy economy but pretty good compared to major global currencies ATM).

Assuming reserve demand to be stable (again, a pessimistic assumption), doubling the transaction rate while holding velocity steady should double the clearing price.  Pessimistically, then, the clearing price should be directly proportional to transaction flow rate.

There are thus three ways to increase the clearing price: Add reserve demand (reducing the effective float), add transaction demand (increasing the size of the economy) or decrease the velocity (reducing transactional supply).

In fact, I would expect velocity of the effective float to rise rather than fall, so hope of future appreciation is either speculation (on the madness of crowds), or else it is dependent on the fundamental assumption of rising reserve and/or transactional demand.  In practice these two demand factors are highly correlated:  observing a rising transactional demand motivates an increased reserve demand, while a rising price motivates dishoarding, which is subject to re-hoarding in a process of saver churn, known as "stronger hands".  

Notionally, the reserve market is discounting the future transactional market as well as its own dishoarding rate.  R_now = R_eq  + r * Dt * (dM/dt + dR/dP) , where Dt is the equilibrium horizon, P is the clearing price, dR/dP is a negative value, - dR/dP << dM/dt, and r is a discounting ratio per unit of t (time).  For fixed velocity, then, knowing the growth rate of the transactional market, dM/dt, would allow one to estimate the mean discounting rate and the dishoarding rate by observing a sequence of equilibrium prices, and hence provide a prediction of the price over time as a functor parameterized by the equilibrium horizon.  (I made one particularly egregious simplification, of the kind that motivates the moniker "dismal science", in order to keep this post short).

I have returned to booking gains as XMR until the next time XMR exceeds $60, whereupon I intend to return to booking gains in BTC.

[dazbog835]

I am slowly buying below 45$ these days, and my daily return on market making capital is now less than 50bp.  I have returned to booking gains as XMR until the next time XMR exceeds $60, whereupon I intend to return to booking gains in BTC.

noob here, but why would you return to BTC after XMR goes to 60?

[TheFuzzStone]

Hi all! I need to spam here in the name of Monero!

One ukrainian exchange started a voting to add Monero! If you have a Facebook-account, just goddamn "like" under this post.

https://www.facebook.com/nvctradeua/posts/1122840561194229

[explorer]

Big jump in hash rate since I last checked, and a big drop in active nodes .  People have moved coins where they need to be and settling in to wait...

MoneroBlocks was offline for a few days. Therefore, also keeping in mind that they most likely had to restart their daemon, it is probably not seeing all the (full) nodes yet. This geomap shows a relatively stable node count:

https://monerobase.com/geomap/

I was citing monerohash.com  which is still showing 880 range.  Monerobase.com is 11xx, which is what I had expected to see (if not higher, with the hashing jump). 

[KeyJockey]

AlphaBay disappearing having any effect on XMR... you guys think?

[nioc]

Big jump in hash rate since I last checked, and a big drop in active nodes .  People have moved coins where they need to be and settling in to wait...

MoneroBlocks was offline for a few days. Therefore, also keeping in mind that they most likely had to restart their daemon, it is probably not seeing all the (full) nodes yet. This geomap shows a relatively stable node count:

https://monerobase.com/geomap/

I was citing monerohash.com  which is still showing 880 range.  Monerobase.com is 11xx, which is what I had expected to see (if not higher, with the hashing jump). 

FWIW my node has not been counted by MoneroHash for months and Monerbase doesn't show it now and I am unsure if they ever did.  No reason why it shouldn't be seen.

I have to restart my node occasionally for reasons unrelated to Monero, with the last time 6 days ago.

As far as the price, whatever.  I will be here whenever "it" happens.

In other news I have been using Monero for legal transactions which has/will been/be a slight improvement of the pessimal velocity

[nioc]

AlphaBay disappearing having any effect on XMR... you guys think?

They are not disappearing.  Whatever the problem they have stated that they are restarting their servers.

[r0ach]

AlphaBay disappearing having any effect on XMR... you guys think?

They are not disappearing.  Whatever the problem they have stated that they are restarting their servers.

I can confirm all crack sales open @ The Smooth Road

[aminorex]

noob here, but why would you return to BTC after XMR goes to 60?

I do not intend that I would convert holdings to btc with xmr over 60usd, but rather that gains on market making operations will be taken off exchange in the form of btc, rather than xmr.  I could certainly change.my mind about the number, but at some level - and a previous ATH is a natural resistance and support level - in the interests of increasing the likelihood that I am buying low and selling high, I would book in btc so that upon a retrace I could compound by trending towards all-in xmr.  One should never run out of powder.  I like to buy powder when it is cheap.  But the purpose of powder is to be used, at some point, when weakness is observed.

[5thangel]

Hi all! I need to spam here in the name of Monero!

One ukrainian exchange started a voting to add Monero! If you have a Facebook-account, just goddamn "like" under this post.

https://www.facebook.com/nvctradeua/posts/1122840561194229

Done , hope this helps!

[bitwolf]

Hi all! I need to spam here in the name of Monero!

One ukrainian exchange started a voting to add Monero! If you have a Facebook-account, just goddamn "like" under this post.

https://www.facebook.com/nvctradeua/posts/1122840561194229

Done , hope this helps!

Still,  "100% community driven" seems less effective than Dash's way - "100% bribes driven".

[tokeweed]

AlphaBay disappearing having any effect on XMR... you guys think?

If they really exit scammed, I'm pretty sure XMR is one of the cryptocurrencies they'd wanna park and hide some of their value.  Putting it all in ETH doesn't make sense and holding a ton of BTC on August 1 could potentially be a bad idea (depending on who you ask).

[TheFuzzStone]

Done , hope this helps!

Thanks!

Few words about this voting.
This is a biggest ukrainian exchange, also is a comfortable for deposit/withdraw local currency.

So thanks to all Montero's and your "likes" 

[Knepala]

Hi all! I need to spam here in the name of Monero!

One ukrainian exchange started a voting to add Monero! If you have a Facebook-account, just goddamn "like" under this post.

https://www.facebook.com/nvctradeua/posts/1122840561194229

done