[XMR] Monero Speculation

[sui_generis]

Those are just listed by market cap.

[1714744340]

1714744340

[KeyJockey]

Is there blood on the streets yet?

Meh... srsly I dunno yet: this SHOULD be "bad" already so far (as BTC touched into the $1800's last night, apparently), I suppose.

Newbies who first bought-in to BTC around $2800 are probably freakin' out right now.  Yeah I remember when I had my first beer too, LOL

But overall when I check my total balance portfolio today, all ALTS considered as via btc etc... for me things seem mostly unchanged.

Yeah it's DOWN a little in BTC terms, I guess (maybe something like less than 10%?) but overall it's "all" really only *down* in DOLLAR value, seems to me.

If so, i.e. if true in general and not just "true for me" for some reason?  Then this'd indicate to me it is only the BTC mothership that's dropped, for the moment?

If everything else is still "proportional" then really we're "unchanged"...?

I read someone said somewhere that in order to get a new ATH, HoneyBadger *ALWAYS* has to first re-test the previous ATH as a "LOW".

So that'd mean we need to hit something like $1,150, before resuming the upward track to hit maybe $5,000 sometime before the end of this year?

If the damn scaling debate is settled, one way or another, by end of August I could see that happening, easily.

Just HODL and "Hang On To Yer Butts", gentlemen.  Gonna be a bumpy ride LOL

Did we lose?

LOL seems to me that ANY crypto at all being advertised on a freakin' BUS STOP sign, means the overall crypto space is WINNING huge...!!!

[sui_generis]

The crypto space is undoubtedly winning huge right now. We haven't even seen a real bubble yet. I have a strong feeling that cryptocurrency will end up being one of the biggest bubbles in human history. A real bubble would be something like the South Sea Company in 1720. At its peak, the market cap for the South Sea Company exceeded Britain's GDP by several times. With cryptocurrency, we have international reach, so I think a bubble in the range of 5-10 Trillion USD is not unrealistic. This would imply Bitcoin at $100,000+, and Monero at $10,000+.

[Majormax]

The crypto space is undoubtedly winning huge right now. We haven't even seen a real bubble yet. I have a strong feeling that cryptocurrency will end up being one of the biggest bubbles in human history. A real bubble would be something like the South Sea Company in 1720. At its peak, the market cap for the South Sea Company exceeded Britain's GDP by several times. With cryptocurrency, we have international reach, so I think a bubble in the range of 5-10 Trillion USD is not unrealistic. This would imply Bitcoin at $100,000+, and Monero at $10,000+.

...and what ultimately happened to the South Sea Company ?  Hopefully you are picking and choosing only those parts of the comparison that suit.

[sui_generis]

...and what ultimately happened to the South Sea Company ?  Hopefully you are picking and choosing only those parts of the comparison that suit.

Of course it was all nonsense, as most cryptocurrencies are, and will continue to be. My statement should not be interpreted to mean that all cryptocurrencies are nonsense, however. Everything will get caught up in the bubble(s), regardless of whether or not it has legitimacy or utility.

I do expect the legitimate coins to generally underperform the nonsense, at least on limited timescales. The highest rates of growth during bubbles should belong to whichever cryptocurrency can generate the most hype. It could be built on a foundation of dogshit, but if it can generate hype, the dumb money will follow.

[bitstomake]

Did we lose?

The fact these pieces of shit who try and scam the naive masses don't promote XMR is a good thing in my books.

[ChironRegera]

The crypto space is undoubtedly winning huge right now. We haven't even seen a real bubble yet. I have a strong feeling that cryptocurrency will end up being one of the biggest bubbles in human history. A real bubble would be something like the South Sea Company in 1720. At its peak, the market cap for the South Sea Company exceeded Britain's GDP by several times. With cryptocurrency, we have international reach, so I think a bubble in the range of 5-10 Trillion USD is not unrealistic. This would imply Bitcoin at $100,000+, and Monero at $10,000+.

$10,000+ XMR would be amazing!

[mambamanagement]

when will the carnage end 

[Majormax]

when will the carnage end 

Within 1 year the bottom should be reached. Use the road map from previous waves as a template.

[Majormax]

...and what ultimately happened to the South Sea Company ?  Hopefully you are picking and choosing only those parts of the comparison that suit.

Of course it was all nonsense, as most cryptocurrencies are, and will continue to be. My statement should not be interpreted to mean that all cryptocurrencies are nonsense, however. Everything will get caught up in the bubble(s), regardless of whether or not it has legitimacy or utility.

I do expect the legitimate coins to generally underperform the nonsense, at least on limited timescales. The highest rates of growth during bubbles should belong to whichever cryptocurrency can generate the most hype. It could be built on a foundation of dogshit, but if it can generate hype, the dumb money will follow.

Yes, I believe you are correct.

There have been 4 big Crypto adoption price waves over the last 6 years. The bust phase of each was inevitable, but only the last 2 have featured alternatives to BTC to any great extent. The one we are (likely) entering now will unfold in a similar way, with capital slowly fleeing to the safer havens (mainly larger projects), but with all fiat-denominated prices showing declines. It was a very long way down from peak to trough.

Within a few months I would expect to clearly see which are the nonsense projects. Unfortunately, by then virtually all value will have evaporated from them. It is hard to see how there could be more than a handful of winners.

[rinus]

...and what ultimately happened to the South Sea Company ?  Hopefully you are picking and choosing only those parts of the comparison that suit.

Of course it was all nonsense, as most cryptocurrencies are, and will continue to be. My statement should not be interpreted to mean that all cryptocurrencies are nonsense, however. Everything will get caught up in the bubble(s), regardless of whether or not it has legitimacy or utility.

I do expect the legitimate coins to generally underperform the nonsense, at least on limited timescales. The highest rates of growth during bubbles should belong to whichever cryptocurrency can generate the most hype. It could be built on a foundation of dogshit, but if it can generate hype, the dumb money will follow.

Yes, I believe you are correct.

There have been 4 big Crypto adoption price waves over the last 6 years. The bust phase of each was inevitable, but only the last 2 have featured alternatives to BTC to any great extent. The one we are (likely) entering now will unfold in a similar way, with capital slowly fleeing to the safer havens (mainly larger projects), but with all fiat-denominated prices showing declines. It was a very long way down from peak to trough.

Within a few months I would expect to clearly see which are the nonsense projects. Unfortunately, by then virtually all value will have evaporated from them. It is hard to see how there could be more than a handful of winners.

And u see Monero as one of the winners ?

[Majormax]

...and what ultimately happened to the South Sea Company ?  Hopefully you are picking and choosing only those parts of the comparison that suit.

Of course it was all nonsense, as most cryptocurrencies are, and will continue to be. My statement should not be interpreted to mean that all cryptocurrencies are nonsense, however. Everything will get caught up in the bubble(s), regardless of whether or not it has legitimacy or utility.

I do expect the legitimate coins to generally underperform the nonsense, at least on limited timescales. The highest rates of growth during bubbles should belong to whichever cryptocurrency can generate the most hype. It could be built on a foundation of dogshit, but if it can generate hype, the dumb money will follow.

Yes, I believe you are correct.

There have been 4 big Crypto adoption price waves over the last 6 years. The bust phase of each was inevitable, but only the last 2 have featured alternatives to BTC to any great extent. The one we are (likely) entering now will unfold in a similar way, with capital slowly fleeing to the safer havens (mainly larger projects), but with all fiat-denominated prices showing declines. It was a very long way down from peak to trough.

Within a few months I would expect to clearly see which are the nonsense projects. Unfortunately, by then virtually all value will have evaporated from them. It is hard to see how there could be more than a handful of winners.

And u see Monero as one of the winners ?

I try not to expect anything. Better to see what actually unfolds, that will give the answers. Survivor bias is operating here, like other forms of selection/evolution.

[KeyJockey]

when will the carnage end 

Within 1 year the bottom should be reached. Use the road map from previous waves as a template.

Honestly, you think this is already the beginning of a new long downtrend?

I don't, myself.  Not yet anyway.

There's been just too much positive upward momentum lately for it to "all just evaporate" right now, for no really good reason (just IMHO of course).

See my post above that all this blood now is really ONLY bitcoin alone, going down in dollar terms?  That, to me, says it's just market uncertainty fear worry panic etc about the upcoming BITCOIN (only!) fork/changes we're gonna be seeing in August/September.

AS SOON as we "know" what that fork/change is gonna ACTUALLY BE, FINALLY (after three years plus of uncertainty) then Mr. Market is gonna FINALLY have Less Uncertainty (finally, thank god!) and if so, then hopefully we're off to re-ignite the engines to new ATHs again.

Or, yeah, no.  Maybe not.  Who the fuck knows, LOL.  Honey Badger gonna do whatever he wants.

Personally I'm just gonna HODL as always and watch the show

It's just a lot more entertaining this time, having a dollar cost average buy-in price so much lower than LAST time around, heheh.

[kurious]

Within a few months I would expect to clearly see which are the nonsense projects. Unfortunately, by then virtually all value will have evaporated from them. It is hard to see how there could be more than a handful of winners.

I am not sure it will happen in months.  We are still not able to see which cryptyos will actually end up being used.  Yes we have speculation about developments in one coin or another being potentially useful - even belief it will be - but not serious adoption or proven mass utility, yet.  So outsiders cannot tell which coins are the real winners, yet.  That poster had Dash on it. Keep the pic chaps - in the future it will be a giggle.  Right now the even those of the masses that understand what that poster is even advertising can't see the difference between the ones that are decent and ones that aren't and in truth we don't know for sure either.  When they see utility, beyond what is currently mostly still speculation, then things will change.

Once actual real world usage (and I don't count facilitating ICO launches for 'other' new coins) then some coins will take the lead.  Then many stragglers will die more quickly as it is apparent they cannot keep up, but there still we be a myriad of coins. There will be copies, adaptations, gimmicks and new ideas for a while yet, many with money behind them, but it is still early.

A shake out is not here yet.  But the battle is fierce and there will be victors. Very few, yes.  But a mass extinction is not happening yet IMHO.

[tokeweed]

After Alphabay, what other darknet market places accept Monero today?  I'm pretty sure some are at least thinking about accepting it.  It's the more private and the safer option obviously and that prevents the feds from knocking on your door.  I also heard that the Alphabay staff were paid in Monero?  How true is this?

[CryptoPH]

The crypto space is undoubtedly winning huge right now. We haven't even seen a real bubble yet. I have a strong feeling that cryptocurrency will end up being one of the biggest bubbles in human history. A real bubble would be something like the South Sea Company in 1720. At its peak, the market cap for the South Sea Company exceeded Britain's GDP by several times. With cryptocurrency, we have international reach, so I think a bubble in the range of 5-10 Trillion USD is not unrealistic. This would imply Bitcoin at $100,000+, and Monero at $10,000+.

Would be nice to retire during that bubble then...

[rinus]

The crypto space is undoubtedly winning huge right now. We haven't even seen a real bubble yet. I have a strong feeling that cryptocurrency will end up being one of the biggest bubbles in human history. A real bubble would be something like the South Sea Company in 1720. At its peak, the market cap for the South Sea Company exceeded Britain's GDP by several times. With cryptocurrency, we have international reach, so I think a bubble in the range of 5-10 Trillion USD is not unrealistic. This would imply Bitcoin at $100,000+, and Monero at $10,000+.

Would be nice to retire during that bubble then...

That would be great! I'm all in Monero from the early beginnings. Hopefully Monero has a bright future... But with Al that coins out there, who knows maybe the world does not need Monero. But I hope it does

[e-coinomist]

when will the carnage end 

Within 1 year the bottom should be reached. Use the road map from previous waves as a template.

Honestly, you think this is already the beginning of a new long downtrend?

I don't, myself.  Not yet anyway.

There's been just too much positive upward momentum lately for it to "all just evaporate" right now, for no really good reason (just IMHO of course).

See my post above that all this blood now is really ONLY bitcoin alone, going down in dollar terms?  That, to me, says it's just market uncertainty fear worry panic etc about the upcoming BITCOIN (only!) fork/changes we're gonna be seeing in August/September.

AS SOON as we "know" what that fork/change is gonna ACTUALLY BE, FINALLY (after three years plus of uncertainty) then Mr. Market is gonna FINALLY have Less Uncertainty (finally, thank god!) and if so, then hopefully we're off to re-ignite the engines to new ATHs again.

Or, yeah, no.  Maybe not.  Who the fuck knows, LOL.  Honey Badger gonna do whatever he wants.

Personally I'm just gonna HODL as always and watch the show

It's just a lot more entertaining this time, having a dollar cost average buy-in price so much lower than LAST time around, heheh.

The funny part will be in mid august when nothing serious happened. The trick about surviving is all about staying alive. And Bitcoin has absolutely no intention to kill itself.
Watch it like theater performance, and relax.

[KeyJockey]

The funny part will be in mid august when nothing serious happened. The trick about surviving is all about staying alive. And Bitcoin has absolutely no intention to kill itself.
Watch it like theater performance, and relax.

Yes, the main thing being IF "nothing serious" happens it will STILL mean all the uncertainty has been "answered" one way or another.

That's what matters: getting rid of all the "OMG teh interwebz sez bitcoinz gonna dying OMG OMG !!!!11!!"

HoneyBadger'll be able to then get back to being HoneyBadger

Let's hope so, anyway... LOL

The other outcome is maybe we're wrong, and bitcoin WILL totally implode and self-immolate, in which case probably Monero will take over as the first REAL digital cash (fully fungible).  Which suits me fine too actually since I have some of that stuff socked away "just in case"

Either way I just hope we can finally just GET ON WITH IT.  Tired of all the bullshit politics and infighting all over the place.  Enough.

[Kisanaq]

When the hardfork issue, bitcoin prices drop and I think they move to various altcoins including monero, but why altcoin prices also go down?