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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3247693 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 2 users deleted.)
ozkraut
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August 25, 2018, 12:07:42 AM
Merited by Dotto (10)
 #39141

Im 6 to 9 months out of the crypto loop. Hadnt read a single new.

I have a brand new ledger nano to move all the moneros in. If someone can tell me where is the more updated guide would be helpful.

It is safe to move all my moneros there?

This should get you started:

https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/925q5m/gui_v01230_with_direct_ledger_support_released/

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Reply with quote  #2

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Hueristic
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August 25, 2018, 02:21:31 AM
 #39142

@$@#%$, I put a buy order in and it goes up 5%! Guess I should have bought at market.

Couldn't dip just a little first, dammit!

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
Johnny Mnemonic
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August 25, 2018, 03:05:19 AM
 #39143

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

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August 25, 2018, 06:41:23 AM
 #39144

Im 6 to 9 months out of the crypto loop. Hadnt read a single new.

I have a brand new ledger nano to move all the moneros in. If someone can tell me where is the more updated guide would be helpful.

It is safe to move all my moneros there?

This should get you started:

https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/925q5m/gui_v01230_with_direct_ledger_support_released/

Thanks, Oz!
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August 25, 2018, 09:49:49 AM
 #39145

1000 usd xmr looks so far away. Hopefully we get there eventually Smiley

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

433,5MH/s*126tph/4xmr/block=13655,25what???

At the moment writing we have rate of 0,0137400BTC/XMR which equals in ~$92 so if you devide the result by 1.000.000 you get pretty near to the BTC/XMR rate.

Is that right or did i get anything wrong?

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August 25, 2018, 07:40:46 PM
 #39146

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.
433,5MH/s*126tph/4xmr/block=13655,25what???

My intention was to describe a time series which should correlate with XMR USD over some local time window. the time window would have to be short enough so that the approximative use of a ratio spread instead of a subtracted spread did not lead to excessive distortion, and long enough for constant noise not too interfere too much with the correlation. The series would need to be scaled by some constant factor to have any utility for supply/demand price estimation. The use of a ratio spread was motivated by a desire to avoid calibrating a scaling parameter.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 25, 2018, 08:51:11 PM
 #39147

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.
433,5MH/s*126tph/4xmr/block=13655,25what???

My intention was to describe a time series which should correlate with XMR USD over some local time window. the time window would have to be short enough so that the approximative use of a ratio spread instead of a subtracted spread did not lead to excessive distortion, and long enough for constant noise not too interfere too much with the correlation. The series would need to be scaled by some constant factor to have any utility for supply/demand price estimation. The use of a ratio spread was motivated by a desire to avoid calibrating a scaling parameter.

Ok, got your intention and i think i got your thinking on this matter. Hence the hashrate dropped pretty heavily since the last hard fork this calculation model can be estimated as an indicator.

Lets pretend we take the the scaling factor of 1.000.000 then MOnerO seemed to be heavily overpriced with the effect of the last hard fork. Now the price drops to the result of calculation model within somewhat of 4 months, so this can be seen as an indicator for this. The question is, will correlate also in the other direction?

I did some studies on historic charts and honestly i did not find a clear factor of time latency, where this could correlate, but let's watch and learn something from the next ATH  Grin

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August 25, 2018, 10:23:41 PM
 #39148

I would tend to apply it over the pre-asic era to calibrate a scaling factor, and over the post-asic era to make an estimation. It's just a price-of-electricity estimation of a support level. I should add a Bitcoin price factor to test correlation to historical price:

(H*(T - aR) *  b + c)*B

a, b, c are the parameters to fit.  Since I was going from a one parameter model to a multiparameter model, I thought I should remove the ratio hack as no longer useful, thus eliminating the time window stealth parameter.  

Adding a hype factor: Use Google trends on "Monero" to obtain

(H*(T - aR + dG) *  b + c)*B

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 26, 2018, 08:42:36 AM
 #39149

I would tend to apply it over the pre-asic era to calibrate a scaling factor, and over the post-asic era to make an estimation. It's just a price-of-electricity estimation of a support level. I should add a Bitcoin price factor to test correlation to historical price:

(H*(T - aR) *  b + c)*B

a, b, c are the parameters to fit.  Since I was going from a one parameter model to a multiparameter model, I thought I should remove the ratio hack as no longer useful, thus eliminating the time window stealth parameter.  

Adding a hype factor: Use Google trends on "Monero" to obtain

(H*(T - aR + dG) *  b + c)*B

OK, so for the legend

H=Hashrate
T=Transactionvolume
R=Reward/Block
B=Bitcoin price in $
a,b,c,d="random" scaling factor

(427mh/s*(100tph - 4XMR/block)* 0,000001)*6600$=270,5472$/XMR

Other inputs are welcome  Grin



EDIT: Calculating the same with your first given calculation model would equal to

427mh/s*100tph/4xmr/block*0,000001=0,010675BTC/xmr

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August 26, 2018, 07:44:17 PM
Merited by explorer (1)
 #39150

Damn...
https://monerobase.com/article/monero_devmeeting_2018-08-26

Highlights
*The tentative date for the next fork is scheduled for October 18th, 2018.
*SChernykh Has posted the last of the CryptoNight-v2 changes.
        -Will be merged soon
        -This will be the new Proof of Work
*The last of the bulletproofs code will be merged soon.
        -May or may not include some additional speedup code.
*Endogenic could use some help reviewing the LightWallet pull request
*ph4r05 has submitted some preliminary code to support Trezor devices
*Once the new BulletProofs and CryptoNight-v2 code has been merged, testnet will reorg and testers will be required.
        -This is expected to happen next week.  As early as Tuesday.
*There may still be an updated v0.12.4.0 GUI release prior to the fork.
*Work is ongoing to create reproducible builds for Monero.  Additional help is requested.
*Next meeting is September 9th, 2018
elrippos friend
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August 26, 2018, 09:44:54 PM
 #39151

Damn...
https://monerobase.com/article/monero_devmeeting_2018-08-26

Highlights
*The tentative date for the next fork is scheduled for October 18th, 2018.
*SChernykh Has posted the last of the CryptoNight-v2 changes.
        -Will be merged soon
        -This will be the new Proof of Work
*The last of the bulletproofs code will be merged soon.
        -May or may not include some additional speedup code.
*Endogenic could use some help reviewing the LightWallet pull request
*ph4r05 has submitted some preliminary code to support Trezor devices
*Once the new BulletProofs and CryptoNight-v2 code has been merged, testnet will reorg and testers will be required.
        -This is expected to happen next week.  As early as Tuesday.
*There may still be an updated v0.12.4.0 GUI release prior to the fork.
*Work is ongoing to create reproducible builds for Monero.  Additional help is requested.
*Next meeting is September 9th, 2018


Nice  Grin Cheesy Wink Smiley

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August 27, 2018, 12:45:12 AM
 #39152

Damn...
https://monerobase.com/article/monero_devmeeting_2018-08-26

Highlights
*The tentative date for the next fork is scheduled for October 18th, 2018.
*SChernykh Has posted the last of the CryptoNight-v2 changes.
        -Will be merged soon
        -This will be the new Proof of Work
*The last of the bulletproofs code will be merged soon.
        -May or may not include some additional speedup code.
*Endogenic could use some help reviewing the LightWallet pull request
*ph4r05 has submitted some preliminary code to support Trezor devices
*Once the new BulletProofs and CryptoNight-v2 code has been merged, testnet will reorg and testers will be required.
        -This is expected to happen next week.  As early as Tuesday.
*There may still be an updated v0.12.4.0 GUI release prior to the fork.
*Work is ongoing to create reproducible builds for Monero.  Additional help is requested.
*Next meeting is September 9th, 2018


Nice  Grin Cheesy Wink Smiley

Verry nice!

Anyone also notice that Montero is doing it's weird contrarian thing? Alts go UP!!! Monsanto goes ... d o w n...  Alts go down! Mediterraneo sneakily starts rising...
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August 27, 2018, 03:47:42 AM
 #39153


Verry nice!

Anyone also notice that Montero is doing it's weird contrarian thing? Alts go UP!!! Monsanto goes ... d o w n...  Alts go down! Mediterraneo sneakily starts rising...

I'd comment but wouldn't want to be called a conspiracy nut. Smiley

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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August 27, 2018, 09:35:11 AM
 #39154


Verry nice!

Anyone also notice that Montero is doing it's weird contrarian thing? Alts go UP!!! Monsanto goes ... d o w n...  Alts go down! Mediterraneo sneakily starts rising...

I'd comment but wouldn't want to be called a conspiracy nut. Smiley

Monero has it's own mindset and that's one reason i am full in this coin  Grin Cheesy Wink Smiley

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August 27, 2018, 12:31:58 PM
 #39155

I was waiting until 1800 for the market to open on Poloniex, when it finally happened it moved so fast I was in shock. Saw on the sell orders after about 2 seconds and I thought to myself, no way it got down here that fast, something clicked and I picked up 150 odd coins at that price. Obviously tiny in comparison to most but I'm happy about it. Especially after worrying all day I was going to lose all my XMR due to the hack, afterall it's been pretty much the only coin I hold that has done well.

WTF, is this a bot account?

EDIT:

YUP, Bot.

Quote
Because I am slow to type, I could not participate in the initial whipsaw

There's a win for the little guys Wink
I was waiting until 3am for the market to open on Polo, when it finally happened it moved so fast I was in shock...saw 375 on the sell orders after about 2 seconds and I thought to myself, no way it got down here that fast, something clicked and I picked up 150 odd coins at that price...Obviously tiny in comparison to most but I'm happy about it. Especially after worrying all day I was going to lose all my XMR due to the hack, afterall it's been pretty much the only coin I hold that has done well.

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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August 27, 2018, 12:53:00 PM
 #39156

I reported him. Strange that someone with 180 activity is doing this and was not banned yet. Maybe this that he changes few words helps him stay alive.

.BitDice.               ▄▄███▄▄
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[/]
Cyrus
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August 27, 2018, 02:34:31 PM
 #39157

Banned him. If you notice copy pasters, report them and they'll be taken care of. Including the source in the report helps. Thanks.

elrippos friend
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August 27, 2018, 02:46:16 PM
 #39158

Banned him. If you notice copy pasters, report them and they'll be taken care of. Including the source in the report helps. Thanks.

Dear Cyrus,
did you already have the time to respond to my PM regarding my hacked account. Last year you did not respond, i hope you could do this now.

Kind regards,
elrippo

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August 27, 2018, 03:06:28 PM
 #39159

Banned him. If you notice copy pasters, report them and they'll be taken care of. Including the source in the report helps. Thanks.

Great! thanks for the quick action. Smiley

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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August 27, 2018, 03:49:28 PM
 #39160

Network HasRate gained more than 30% in the last hours  Roll Eyes Grin

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