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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3180494 times)
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spirali
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August 23, 2018, 04:34:05 PM
Last edit: August 23, 2018, 04:44:24 PM by spirali
 #39141

- smaller blockchain size then BTC atm (I assume size is growing faster then BTC's, any estimations when this could happen?)

I assume you are talking about the total of BTC and XMR in circulation? They should be equal in 2040:
...

I think you two guys are talking about two different things.

7jaka7 is talking about the size of the blockchain (= the amount of disk space that you need
if you want to download and verify the Bitcoin / Monero blockchain).
You are talking about the total supply of BTC / XMR.

Monero´s blockchain is indeed growing faster than the BTC blockchain
if we measure the growth of the blockchain size as a percentage.

BTC blockchain growth:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/647523/worldwide-bitcoin-blockchain-size/

Monero blockchain growth:
https://moneroblocks.info/stats

It's what I understood initially but I couldn't see the correlation between the price and the blockchain size. Of course, keeping a smaller blockchain makes it easier to spread more nodes (=> more decentralization) but an XMR transaction weights more than a BTC transaction (explaining why the size of Monero's blockchain is indeed growing faster even with much fewer transactions).

@7jaka7, could you explain why you think the size of blockchain has an influence on the price?

1 BTC = 1 BTC
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August 23, 2018, 04:51:38 PM
 #39142

- smaller blockchain size then BTC atm (I assume size is growing faster then BTC's, any estimations when this could happen?)

I assume you are talking about the total of BTC and XMR in circulation? They should be equal in 2040:
...

I think you two guys are talking about two different things.

7jaka7 is talking about the size of the blockchain (= the amount of disk space that you need
if you want to download and verify the Bitcoin / Monero blockchain).
You are talking about the total supply of BTC / XMR.

Monero´s blockchain is indeed growing faster than the BTC blockchain
if we measure the growth of the blockchain size as a percentage.

BTC blockchain growth:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/647523/worldwide-bitcoin-blockchain-size/

Monero blockchain growth:
https://moneroblocks.info/stats

https://www.ccn.com/privacy-coin-monero-successfully-completes-first-bulletproofs-audit/
https://bitcoincryptocurrency.com/monero-xmr-bulletproofs/
Quote
Just to conclude, there’s no doubt Bulletproofs represents a vital advancement in Monero transactions. The 80% savings, faster verification times and reduced fees is a huge plus. If you are part of those waiting for it, be happy and keep checking!

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August 23, 2018, 05:18:23 PM
 #39143

Apparently Bulletproofs can reduce the average tx from 15kb to something like 1.5kb-3kb which is still slightly larger than Bitcoin's 0.5kb but definitely a significant improvement. Would something like RuffCT/StringCT reduce that even more? I'm also curious if we would be able to prune the blockchain in the future, like Aeon or Boolberry do - although Monero can't use the same method IIRC.

Monero also stores UTXO on-disk with denormalised database indices/LMDB rather than on-memory like Bitcoin, so although their blockchain isn't growing as fast as Monero currently, they will still suffer from a growing UTXO set in time, although hard drive storage is getting cheaper every year and there's always room for more optimisations and off-chain scaling solutions.

I'm not an expert though, so I'd love if someone could chime in and correct me if I'm wrong.
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August 23, 2018, 05:54:37 PM
 #39144

1000 usd xmr looks so far away. Hopefully we get there eventually Smiley

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

You are back in the house, so that takes me to a new ATH in a month or less  Grin

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August 23, 2018, 06:40:14 PM
 #39145

Guys, if there are holders here - buy PRiVCY
Monero has already passed the pump, look how it collapsed.

Monero is shit!
The future is PRiVCY !!!

I'm waiting for everyone here - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4503790.msg40546622#msg40546622

Sign me up!
Subscribe to our Airdrop  Grin

You mean this Shit is so good they are giving it away!!!

Damn I have to buy Monero. Sad

I must be doing it wrong.

Dude, stopped on their discord and people were talking about "If the price pumps to X, I'll buy a lambo for every day of the week!"

Don't they know the life cycle of a privacy shitcoin? 1. launch coin silently so devs can accumulate 2. make incredible claims (IE. Whitepaper SOON!) 3. work noobs into a frothy lather of expectations 4. go full-shill and attack Monero 5. pump and die 6. take what you learned and start a new coin (only appies to devs and pump masters)

You don't skip to 4

you're so clever.
Before the pump did you already buy PRiVCY?

Can you explain 'the pump?' PRIVCY price hasn't fluctuated all that much from what I can see?
Jason.W
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August 23, 2018, 06:44:37 PM
Last edit: August 23, 2018, 06:55:07 PM by Jason.W
 #39146

OK the math is in fellas:


C0A2A1C4
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August 23, 2018, 08:22:42 PM
 #39147

- smaller blockchain size then BTC atm (I assume size is growing faster then BTC's, any estimations when this could happen?)

I assume you are talking about the total of BTC and XMR in circulation? They should be equal in 2040:

~snip

Also, note the supply rate will be similar from 2019 to 2027. You can read this very interesting reddit post to get more info: https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/512kwh/useful_for_learning_about_monero_coin_emission/

I was thinking of total supply in the other reason I mentioned:
- smaller supply (is there any estimations when XMR will over come BTC's supply?)
But thanks for all the info. Also interesting link, thanks!

Quote
@7jaka7, could you explain why you think the size of blockchain has an influence on the price?
Just for the reasons you mentioned, i.e. if blockchain would take 0,5TB (or more) of disk space I think there would be a lot less nodes which also makes whole blockchain less secure (or not?) and if some kind of attack would happen I believe price would decrease a lot. After all this is what give it it's true value.
P.S. I assumed that XMR transactions takes up more space due to ring signatures. So if there would be same number of transactions on BTC and XMR blockchains Monero's would grow faster.

Thanks for the links @Samarkand Smiley

- smaller blockchain size then BTC atm (I assume size is growing faster then BTC's, any estimations when this could happen?)
~snip
~snip
https://www.ccn.com/privacy-coin-monero-successfully-completes-first-bulletproofs-audit/
https://bitcoincryptocurrency.com/monero-xmr-bulletproofs/
Quote
Just to conclude, there’s no doubt Bulletproofs represents a vital advancement in Monero transactions. The 80% savings, faster verification times and reduced fees is a huge plus. If you are part of those waiting for it, be happy and keep checking!
I saw this yes. This could actually be a big improvement.

Quote
After the new rules, however, this figure will be slashed to as much as around 2.5kB in size for all single-output bulletproofs.
This is still a lot bigger then BTC transaction on average, which is around 0.4kB.

SECURE YOUR CRYPTO ASSETS | GET SOME FREE SATOSHI'S | TRADE ON BINANCE  Disclaimer: All links are affiliate/refferal! Thank you for using them! Smiley
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August 23, 2018, 08:36:52 PM
 #39148


Quote
After the new rules, however, this figure will be slashed to as much as around 2.5kB in size for all single-output bulletproofs.
This is still a lot bigger then BTC transaction on average, which is around 0.4kB.

spirali
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August 24, 2018, 12:40:44 AM
 #39149

I was thinking of total supply in the other reason I mentioned:
- smaller supply (is there any estimations when XMR will over come BTC's supply?)
But thanks for all the info. Also interesting link, thanks!

Oh I see... I knew I read that and I knew I could find the answer (because I asked myself the same question in the past) but I quoted another sentence when I replied and I started from there  Roll Eyes

1 BTC = 1 BTC
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August 24, 2018, 01:53:07 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)
 #39150

Apparently Bulletproofs can reduce the average tx from 15kb to something like 1.5kb-3kb which is still slightly larger than Bitcoin's 0.5kb but definitely a significant improvement. Would something like RuffCT/StringCT reduce that even more?

As currently envisioned that would increase the ring size (so better privacy) without increasing the TX size but wouldn't significantly reduce the tx size. There might be other methods/improvments developed in the future, who knows.

Quote
I'm also curious if we would be able to prune the blockchain in the future, like Aeon or Boolberry do - although Monero can't use the same method IIRC.

Some pruning (about 80% IIRC) is already partially implemented and will be rolled out when it is ready.

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August 24, 2018, 07:35:43 PM
Last edit: August 24, 2018, 09:17:14 PM by Dotto
 #39151

Im 6 to 9 months out of the crypto loop. Hadnt read a single new.

I have a brand new ledger nano to move all the moneros in. If someone can tell me where is the more updated guide would be helpful.

It is safe to move all my moneros there?
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August 25, 2018, 12:07:42 AM
Merited by Dotto (10)
 #39152

Im 6 to 9 months out of the crypto loop. Hadnt read a single new.

I have a brand new ledger nano to move all the moneros in. If someone can tell me where is the more updated guide would be helpful.

It is safe to move all my moneros there?

This should get you started:

https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/925q5m/gui_v01230_with_direct_ledger_support_released/

Monero - Wir sind die Leute vor denen uns unsere Eltern gewarnt haben!
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August 25, 2018, 02:21:31 AM
 #39153

@$@#%$, I put a buy order in and it goes up 5%! Guess I should have bought at market.

Couldn't dip just a little first, dammit!

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August 25, 2018, 03:05:19 AM
 #39154

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

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August 25, 2018, 06:41:23 AM
 #39155

Im 6 to 9 months out of the crypto loop. Hadnt read a single new.

I have a brand new ledger nano to move all the moneros in. If someone can tell me where is the more updated guide would be helpful.

It is safe to move all my moneros there?

This should get you started:

https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/925q5m/gui_v01230_with_direct_ledger_support_released/

Thanks, Oz!
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August 25, 2018, 09:49:49 AM
 #39156

1000 usd xmr looks so far away. Hopefully we get there eventually Smiley

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

433,5MH/s*126tph/4xmr/block=13655,25what???

At the moment writing we have rate of 0,0137400BTC/XMR which equals in ~$92 so if you devide the result by 1.000.000 you get pretty near to the BTC/XMR rate.

Is that right or did i get anything wrong?

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August 25, 2018, 07:40:46 PM
 #39157

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.
433,5MH/s*126tph/4xmr/block=13655,25what???

My intention was to describe a time series which should correlate with XMR USD over some local time window. the time window would have to be short enough so that the approximative use of a ratio spread instead of a subtracted spread did not lead to excessive distortion, and long enough for constant noise not too interfere too much with the correlation. The series would need to be scaled by some constant factor to have any utility for supply/demand price estimation. The use of a ratio spread was motivated by a desire to avoid calibrating a scaling parameter.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 25, 2018, 08:51:11 PM
 #39158

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.
433,5MH/s*126tph/4xmr/block=13655,25what???

My intention was to describe a time series which should correlate with XMR USD over some local time window. the time window would have to be short enough so that the approximative use of a ratio spread instead of a subtracted spread did not lead to excessive distortion, and long enough for constant noise not too interfere too much with the correlation. The series would need to be scaled by some constant factor to have any utility for supply/demand price estimation. The use of a ratio spread was motivated by a desire to avoid calibrating a scaling parameter.

Ok, got your intention and i think i got your thinking on this matter. Hence the hashrate dropped pretty heavily since the last hard fork this calculation model can be estimated as an indicator.

Lets pretend we take the the scaling factor of 1.000.000 then MOnerO seemed to be heavily overpriced with the effect of the last hard fork. Now the price drops to the result of calculation model within somewhat of 4 months, so this can be seen as an indicator for this. The question is, will correlate also in the other direction?

I did some studies on historic charts and honestly i did not find a clear factor of time latency, where this could correlate, but let's watch and learn something from the next ATH  Grin

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August 25, 2018, 10:23:41 PM
 #39159

I would tend to apply it over the pre-asic era to calibrate a scaling factor, and over the post-asic era to make an estimation. It's just a price-of-electricity estimation of a support level. I should add a Bitcoin price factor to test correlation to historical price:

(H*(T - aR) *  b + c)*B

a, b, c are the parameters to fit.  Since I was going from a one parameter model to a multiparameter model, I thought I should remove the ratio hack as no longer useful, thus eliminating the time window stealth parameter.  

Adding a hype factor: Use Google trends on "Monero" to obtain

(H*(T - aR + dG) *  b + c)*B

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 26, 2018, 08:42:36 AM
 #39160

I would tend to apply it over the pre-asic era to calibrate a scaling factor, and over the post-asic era to make an estimation. It's just a price-of-electricity estimation of a support level. I should add a Bitcoin price factor to test correlation to historical price:

(H*(T - aR) *  b + c)*B

a, b, c are the parameters to fit.  Since I was going from a one parameter model to a multiparameter model, I thought I should remove the ratio hack as no longer useful, thus eliminating the time window stealth parameter.  

Adding a hype factor: Use Google trends on "Monero" to obtain

(H*(T - aR + dG) *  b + c)*B

OK, so for the legend

H=Hashrate
T=Transactionvolume
R=Reward/Block
B=Bitcoin price in $
a,b,c,d="random" scaling factor

(427mh/s*(100tph - 4XMR/block)* 0,000001)*6600$=270,5472$/XMR

Other inputs are welcome  Grin



EDIT: Calculating the same with your first given calculation model would equal to

427mh/s*100tph/4xmr/block*0,000001=0,010675BTC/xmr

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