[XMR] Monero Speculation

[jehst]

Stop selling, twerps!

People want to get it on the bitcoin action.

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[Shrikez]

Stop selling, twerps!

People want to get it on the bitcoin action.

I understand that but still... twerps! 

[smooth]

XMR is down 9% vs BTC in the past 24 hours. BTC is up 23% vs USD in the same time period. Do the math.

[rangedriver]

XMR is down 9% vs BTC in the past 24 hours. BTC is up 23% vs USD in the same time period. Do the math.

Monero up 14%.

[mmortal03]

I'm still waiting on being able to buy XMR directly for USD, and we can't even get the following!: https://www.ccedk.com/xmr-usd

It would even be cool if there were a way to buy NuBits directly for USD, or anything comparable without a ridiculous fee, so that there's no potential volatility until buying the XMR.

Coinbase instant -> Pol is USUALLY 15 - 20 min.

You're talking Bitcoins from Coinbase? What I'm asking about is USD -> XMR directly.

I'm still waiting on being able to buy XMR directly for USD, and we can't even get the following!: https://www.ccedk.com/xmr-usd

It would even be cool if there were a way to buy NuBits directly for USD, or anything comparable without a ridiculous fee, so that there's no potential volatility until buying the XMR.

There is XMR/USD pair in Poloniex.

That's CoinoUSD. You can buy it on Coinomat.com, but I don't see any reasonable way to acquire it by, say, a US bank account. They do accept BTC-e USD for CoinoUSD, but that doesn't seem to make things any easier.

[pinky]

I guess now is good time to buy XMR.

Prices are very low, I got ridiculed for warning people not to buy when XMR was trading around 0.003 BTC or $3. Now prices are around 90% of this in $ terms. Almost 1/3 has been mined, inflation is still high but significantly lower. I am not sure we are ready for new bubble, but market cap is ridiculously low. Longer we stay at this levels bigger the rise as coins will be in strong hands.
Just to get to 10 biggest coins by market cap it needs to raise at least 5x in value...

XMR and other anon coins will slowly start to gain attention when more people will go to jail for transmitting BTC in connection with illegal activities.

[thejaytiesto]

XMR is down 9% vs BTC in the past 24 hours. BTC is up 23% vs USD in the same time period. Do the math.

People will lose a lot of money when XMR goes up, do the math.

[luigi1111]

XMR is down 9% vs BTC in the past 24 hours. BTC is up 23% vs USD in the same time period. Do the math.

Monero up 14%.

AFAICT, this equals +11.93%.

[rangedriver]

XMR is down 9% vs BTC in the past 24 hours. BTC is up 23% vs USD in the same time period. Do the math.

Monero up 14%.

AFAICT, this equals +11.93%.

rangedriver has awarded luigi1111 9999 marks (for old time's sake and keen mathematical skills)

[luigi1111]

XMR is down 9% vs BTC in the past 24 hours. BTC is up 23% vs USD in the same time period. Do the math.

Monero up 14%.

AFAICT, this equals +11.93%.

rangedriver has awarded luigi1111 9999 marks (for old time's sake and keen mathematical skills)

lol, too bad they're not worth so much anymore, was fun while it lasted!

Pink for lyfe!

[jehst]

I guess now is good time to buy XMR.

Prices are very low, I got ridiculed for warning people not to buy when XMR was trading around 0.003 BTC or $3. Now prices are around 90% of this in $ terms. Almost 1/3 has been mined, inflation is still high but significantly lower. I am not sure we are ready for new bubble, but market cap is ridiculously low. Longer we stay at this levels bigger the rise as coins will be in strong hands.
Just to get to 10 biggest coins by market cap it needs to raise at least 5x in value...

XMR and other anon coins will slowly start to gain attention when more people will go to jail for transmitting BTC in connection with illegal activities.

XMR's current market cap is $1,879,944. If every single pre-tail emission XMR (18.4 million) were mined, then the market cap would be $5,704,000 at its current price.
Namecoin is half-mined and already has a current market cap of 5.7 million. Fully mined (21 million), NMC's market cap would be $12,327,000.

NMC is a non-shitcoin with interesting technology, but realistically most people don't need censorship-free domain names. Maybe thepiratebay.org and wikileaks need them, but the rest of us don't. Also, NMC's community and development is on life-support. Their forums, subreddit, and BCT threads are basically all dead.
XMR's announcement thread alone (at 1000 pages and 20k posts) has more posts than NMC's subreddit, forum (https://forum.namecoin.info/), and announcement thread combined. Realistically, everyone wants and needs financial privacy. XMR has active development, donations, and is making rapid improvements in marketing efforts.

I think it's reasonable to conclude that XMR will surpass NMC again and get back into the TOP-16. XMR is at nearly 10% of its Poloniex all-time high of .01 against bitcoin while most other non-IPO alts like DOGE, LTC, PPC, and NMC are closer to 20% of their all time highs against bitcoin. Therefore, XMR is likely undervalued (in bitcoin) relative to other altcoins by a factor of two.

The following is my speculation:
1) XMR is currently undervalued by a factor of two against other alts (as explained above). It's been oversold mostly due to high supply inflation.
2) Comparable alts (LTC, DOGE, NMC, PPC, DRK) are currently undervalued against bitcoin by a factor of 2. That would be closer to their normal trading range.
3) Bitcoin is currently undervalued against the dollar by a factor of 5. (I'm not going to get into the details here. I can make a separate post about this.)
4) During a crypto-boom, alts and bitcoin have historically overshot and become overvalued against bitcoin and the dollar respectively. In an overshoot scenario, alts might rise against bitcoin by a factor of 5 (rather than 2) and bitcoin might rise against the dollar by a factor of 10* (rather than 5).

Conclusion:

At the absolute peak of the next cryptoboom, in the overvalued scenario, when all the stars have aligned,

$100 in bitcoin today might turn into $1000. (10x)
$100 in LTC/DOGE/NMC, etc. today might turn into $5000 (50x)
$100 in XMR today might turn into $10,000 (100x)

Of course, I'm not saying that you should go all-in on XMR or alts and try to sell everything for 100x. No one can sell everything at the peak, nor is it desirable. I'm just saying what's possible in light of history. XMR is at an all-time low against other alts. Other alts are at all-time lows against bitcoin. And of course bitcoin is down massively against the dollar over the past year. So this is the slingshot within the slingshot within the slingshot.

There are lots of things that are undervalued right now. Sugar is down 75% from its all time high. The Japanese stock market is still very low compared to its all time high. But sugar is traded in dollars, and dollars are strong. Dollars aren't going to go up 10x in value against other currencies like bitcoin might. Japanese stocks are traded in yen. Yen aren't going to go up 10x in value against other currencies. So there's no sugar slingshot or Japanese stock slingshot. There's no other opportunity like XMR on this planet right now. It's the most undervalued thing that I can find. Please let me know if you've found something more undervalued.

* (Note: As ridiculous as this sounds, I'm trying to be conservative. In an overvalued scenario, bitcoin might actually reach 20x the current price to reach $5000 per BTC)

[rpietila]

Not many predicted that we would reach $1242 per bitcoin in 2013, when it started the year at $13.50, unable to surpass the previous peak for 18 months.

The peak was surpassed, and 30 months after (the peak of 2011), Bitcoin was trading 40x higher.

I think this makes it more, not less, probable that the same can happen again and $50k reached if not this, the next year.


BTW. I was one of the (quite few) people to recognize that BTC's NPV was $2000 when it was trading at about $50 in March-13. This realization helped me a lot in the assurance of going speculatively all-in that year, and realizing a 600% gain in 7 months.

It is true that the prediction of $300k per bitcoin before the end of 2013 did not materialize, yet everyone who played along, did fantastically good by buying at $50. They either sold partly with me for 1000%+ gain, or are still holding for a 500% unrealized gain.

Every troll who does not have money to pay his own expenses would do well to heed this.

[jehst]

I think this makes it more, not less, probable that the same can happen again and $50k reached if not this, the next year.

If we combine this with the idea that XMR can reach .008 to .01 XMR/BTC before the end of next year to reclaim its previous place in the Top-16, we can truly get some scary numbers.

The more long-term calculations, which include the assumption that XMR can and will defeat many of the Top-16 players (Ybcoin, "BanxShares"? Come on.)  and advance closer to the Top 5 can be left as an exercise for the reader.

[drawingthesun]

Not many predicted that we would reach $1242 per bitcoin in 2013, when it started the year at $13.50, unable to surpass the previous peak for 18 months.

The peak was surpassed, and 30 months after (the peak of 2011), Bitcoin was trading 40x higher.

I think this makes it more, not less, probable that the same can happen again and $50k reached if not this, the next year.


BTW. I was one of the (quite few) people to recognize that BTC's NPV was $2000 when it was trading at about $50 in March-13. This realization helped me a lot in the assurance of going speculatively all-in that year, and realizing a 600% gain in 7 months.

It is true that the prediction of $300k per bitcoin before the end of 2013 did not materialize, yet everyone who played along, did fantastically good by buying at $50. They either sold partly with me for 1000%+ gain, or are still holding for a 500% unrealized gain.

Every troll who does not have money to pay his own expenses would do well to heed this.

What are your price predictions for Monero for the next 6 months?

It has been very disheartening to see it fall so low.

[rpietila]

Sorry wrong thread.

[sparky999]

Has it ever been suggested that a portion of the mining block rewards are diverted to pay interest to coin owners who buy 'bonds' those coins are then locked up in a cold storage wallet and can not be accessed for x amount of days - as  a way to encourage the use of Monero as a store of value?

I know Risto is going to chime in with some stuff about bonds in CK but I think working something like this into the code of the coin could be very beneficial.

[jehst]

Has it ever been suggested that a portion of the mining block rewards are diverted to pay interest to coin owners who buy 'bonds' those coins are then locked up in a cold storage wallet and can not be accessed for x amount of days - as  a way to encourage the use of Monero as a store of value?

I know Risto is going to chime in with some stuff about bonds in CK but I think working something like this into the code of the coin could be very beneficial.

I believe Aminorex is offering a non-CK bond. There's no reason why that needs to be put into the protocol.

[manselr]

Not many predicted that we would reach $1242 per bitcoin in 2013, when it started the year at $13.50, unable to surpass the previous peak for 18 months.

The peak was surpassed, and 30 months after (the peak of 2011), Bitcoin was trading 40x higher.

I think this makes it more, not less, probable that the same can happen again and $50k reached if not this, the next year.


BTW. I was one of the (quite few) people to recognize that BTC's NPV was $2000 when it was trading at about $50 in March-13. This realization helped me a lot in the assurance of going speculatively all-in that year, and realizing a 600% gain in 7 months.

It is true that the prediction of $300k per bitcoin before the end of 2013 did not materialize, yet everyone who played along, did fantastically good by buying at $50. They either sold partly with me for 1000%+ gain, or are still holding for a 500% unrealized gain.

Every troll who does not have money to pay his own expenses would do well to heed this.

But we can't expect similar gains with any other coin, at least not like XMR. We'll see gains for sure, but Bitcoin is "the one and only", the father or coins... cant really compare and expect past performance on bitcoin be comparable with other coins.

[rpietila]

Not many predicted that we would reach $1242 per bitcoin in 2013, when it started the year at $13.50, unable to surpass the previous peak for 18 months.

The peak was surpassed, and 30 months after (the peak of 2011), Bitcoin was trading 40x higher.

I think this makes it more, not less, probable that the same can happen again and $50k reached if not this, the next year.


BTW. I was one of the (quite few) people to recognize that BTC's NPV was $2000 when it was trading at about $50 in March-13. This realization helped me a lot in the assurance of going speculatively all-in that year, and realizing a 600% gain in 7 months.

It is true that the prediction of $300k per bitcoin before the end of 2013 did not materialize, yet everyone who played along, did fantastically good by buying at $50. They either sold partly with me for 1000%+ gain, or are still holding for a 500% unrealized gain.

Every troll who does not have money to pay his own expenses would do well to heed this.

But we can't expect similar gains with any other coin, at least not like XMR. We'll see gains for sure, but Bitcoin is "the one and only", the father or coins... cant really compare and expect past performance on bitcoin be comparable with other coins.

Sorry, wrong thread (thought I was posting to my Wall Observer - this is not related to XMR)

[cAPSLOCK]

Has it ever been suggested that a portion of the mining block rewards are diverted to pay interest to coin owners who buy 'bonds' those coins are then locked up in a cold storage wallet and can not be accessed for x amount of days - as  a way to encourage the use of Monero as a store of value?

I know Risto is going to chime in with some stuff about bonds in CK but I think working something like this into the code of the coin could be very beneficial.

I believe Aminorex is offering a non-CK bond. There's no reason why that needs to be put into the protocol.

This is hugely important.  One of the beauties of cryptocuurencies is the ability to build whatever you want on top of them.