[XMR] Monero Speculation

[ArticMine]

my guess is the xmr.to definitely helped.

yeah!
I'll recommand that service for anyone who wants to pay anonymously. It's a very usefull service

Using that service means more XMR will be sold (adding liquidity which is a positive thing)
therefore I call on current (bag-)hoders to just buy XMR when you want to use xmr.to
(keep your wallets cold!)

This service can drive demand up and add new people to the community who will start to take some fresh monero off the market

Would it not be possible for them to also set it up to accept bitcoins, convert those to moneroj, and then back to bitcoins to make your payment?

This would not work because of timing analysis on the XBT for starters. In addition it creates a significant regulatory risk. The way to benefit from the privacy of the XMR is to hold the XMR for a period of time. For example a person that is paid in XBT would use XBT to purchase XMR, transfer the XMR to a second wallet to deal with an exchange not using a high enough mixin, wait a few weeks, and then spend an uncorrelated amount of XBT via XMR.TO. In short without a market exposure to XMR over a period of time I doubt one can benefit from the privacy of XMR

[David Latapie]

This would not work because of timing analysis on the XBT for starters. In addition it creates a significant regulatory risk. The way to benefit from the privacy of the XMR is to hold the XMR for a period of time. For example a person that is paid in XBT would use XBT to purchase XMR, transfer the XMR to a second wallet to deal with an exchange not using a high enough mixin, wait a few weeks, and then spend an uncorrelated amount of XBT via XMR.TO. In short without a market exposure to XMR over a period of time I doubt one can benefit from the privacy of XMR

Could you extend this into an article for the MEW website? Or an entry in the wiki, maybe in the advocacy section (although not the ideal place)?

[waterpile]

is there a chance monero is going up? I'm going to sell my XMR next week if there is no sign of going up

[rpietila]

is there a chance monero is going up? I'm going to sell my XMR next week if there is no sign of going up

Half of the guys in the thread have the capability of moving the price 50% in either direction.

We decide if it goes up, or not. Don't be a slave to us.

If you think Monero is bad, go ahead and sell. But don't be fooled to believe there is any connection between the current price and the long-term prospects.

[UnicornFarts]

is there a chance monero is going up? I'm going to sell my XMR next week if there is no sign of going up

Half of the guys in the thread have the capability of moving the price 50% in either direction.

We decide if it goes up, or not. Don't be a slave to us.

If you think Monero is bad, go ahead and sell. But don't be fooled to believe there is any connection between the current price and the long-term prospects.

Low price just means whales afraid to get beached ;P

[dEBRUYNE]

Elliot Wave analysis of the Monero bear market since June on an log scale. I see two possibilities:

1) A failed bear market with a truncated wave V if the bulls can break out above the exponential trendline. The would lead to a very sharp move to the upside.
2) Continuation of the bear market with possibly an extended wave V if the bears can break below 0.0009. This would require relabelling the sub waves in wave V

Seems like 1) is happening currently, we are very close to breaking the downtrend trendline.

[razen489]

Monero marginal climb https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/btc

[jehst]

Sorry guys, but you can't do TA on something so thinly capitalized. 10% movements are just individual investors moving in and out of positions. Some of XMRs moves were literally just me. I can point to parts of XMR's chart and say "That was me." Monero's .0015 period was literally sustained by one person's buy wall. Until XMR is stable at a 10-15 million dollar market cap, it's going to be wildly unpredictable. This is certainly XMR's innovator/distribution phase. Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

[rpietila]

Sorry guys, but you can't do TA on something so thinly capitalized. 10% movements are just individual investors moving in and out of positions.

True.

Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Untrue.

[jehst]

Sorry guys, but you can't do TA on something so thinly capitalized. 10% movements are just individual investors moving in and out of positions.

True.

Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Untrue.

I shouldn't say it's impossible, but even bitcoin's long-term uptrend was broken a few months ago and 14 million coins are mined.

10%+ yearly supply inflation is formidable. I do believe XMR will have its rallies from now until 2017, but a sustainable uptrend will be very difficult.

[binaryFate]

Sorry guys, but you can't do TA on something so thinly capitalized. 10% movements are just individual investors moving in and out of positions.

True.

Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Untrue.

I shouldn't say it's impossible, but even bitcoin's long-term uptrend was broken a few months ago and 14 million coins are mined.

10%+ yearly supply inflation is formidable. I do believe XMR will have its rallies from now until 2017, but a sustainable uptrend will be very difficult.

10% yearly inflation is completely negligible with an expanding user base. The inflation effect is completely dominated by the effect of an exponential user base growing, in which case 1% or 10% yearly inflation does not make any noticeable difference.
That is the reason why people keep repeating BTC is a deflationnary currency while technically it's not. It is very deflationnary compared to the user base, in period of expansion.
We simply have a Monero community that is currently not growing much. Yet.

[jehst]

Sorry guys, but you can't do TA on something so thinly capitalized. 10% movements are just individual investors moving in and out of positions.

True.

Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Untrue.

I shouldn't say it's impossible, but even bitcoin's long-term uptrend was broken a few months ago and 14 million coins are mined.

10%+ yearly supply inflation is formidable. I do believe XMR will have its rallies from now until 2017, but a sustainable uptrend will be very difficult.

10% yearly inflation is completely negligible with an expanding user base. The inflation effect is completely dominated by the effect of an exponential user base growing, in which case 1% or 10% yearly inflation does not make any noticeable difference.
That is the reason why people keep repeating BTC is a deflationnary currency while technically it's not. It is very deflationnary compared to the user base, in period of expansion.
We simply have a Monero community that is currently not growing much. Yet.

Well if Monero's community starts growing rapidly, then sure, we can have a long-term uptrend from 2015-2017 despite the inflation.

[bclcjunkie]

+1 weak hands aren't only weak and impatient but often shortsighted as well...

is there a chance monero is going up? I'm going to sell my XMR next week if there is no sign of going up

Half of the guys in the thread have the capability of moving the price 50% in either direction.

We decide if it goes up, or not. Don't be a slave to us.

If you think Monero is bad, go ahead and sell. But don't be fooled to believe there is any connection between the current price and the long-term prospects.

[hodlmybtc]

Just buy and hold XMR longterm, maybe try to sell to rebuy lower at a top of a unsustainable rally.

Same with BTC, relatively short-term price movements are expected to be wild, but have little to do with the coins' fundamentals.

[smooth]

Sorry guys, but you can't do TA on something so thinly capitalized. 10% movements are just individual investors moving in and out of positions.

True.

Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Untrue.

I shouldn't say it's impossible, but even bitcoin's long-term uptrend was broken a few months ago and 14 million coins are mined.

10%+ yearly supply inflation is formidable. I do believe XMR will have its rallies from now until 2017, but a sustainable uptrend will be very difficult.

10% yearly inflation is completely negligible with an expanding user base. The inflation effect is completely dominated by the effect of an exponential user base growing, in which case 1% or 10% yearly inflation does not make any noticeable difference.
That is the reason why people keep repeating BTC is a deflationnary currency while technically it's not. It is very deflationnary compared to the user base, in period of expansion.
We simply have a Monero community that is currently not growing much. Yet.

I agree. Think of the magnitude here. With a 2m USD market cap and 10% supply inflation you need 10% new money coming in for stable value. That is only 200k USD over the course of a year, or 15k USD per month. That is tiny, tiny, tiny with any kind of growth in user base or with any serious investors.

[nakaone]

Sorry guys, but you can't do TA on something so thinly capitalized. 10% movements are just individual investors moving in and out of positions.

True.

Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Untrue.

I shouldn't say it's impossible, but even bitcoin's long-term uptrend was broken a few months ago and 14 million coins are mined.

10%+ yearly supply inflation is formidable. I do believe XMR will have its rallies from now until 2017, but a sustainable uptrend will be very difficult.

10% yearly inflation is completely negligible with an expanding user base. The inflation effect is completely dominated by the effect of an exponential user base growing, in which case 1% or 10% yearly inflation does not make any noticeable difference.
That is the reason why people keep repeating BTC is a deflationnary currency while technically it's not. It is very deflationnary compared to the user base, in period of expansion.
We simply have a Monero community that is currently not growing much. Yet.

I agree. Think of the magnitude here. With a 2m USD market cap you and 10% supply inflation you need 10% new money coming in for stable value. That is only 200k USD over the course of a year, or 15k USD per month. That is tiny, tiny, tiny with any kind of growth in user base or with any serious investors.

binary talking tons of sense here.

inflation matters most and only in bear markets - that is the reason why we see this rediculously low prices for xmr. time will tell what will happen with monero.

[binaryFate]

Looks like things are starting to boil. Note that we're getting very very close to breaking an historical downtrend. Considering all this is happening without even any technical news from core team... hyper bullish short term!

[jehst]

Over 500k xmr on the ask book. Most I've seen since the xmr market opened there. Lots of coins on polo and someones jammed a 100k ask in at 0.00225. The games begin.

Unnecessary counter-party risk. He should store his own XMR.

[jwinterm]

Over 500k xmr on the ask book. Most I've seen since the xmr market opened there. Lots of coins on polo and someones jammed a 100k ask in at 0.00225. The games begin.

Yea, I know it doesn't mean much having only one relatively small market (and a few other tinier markets like bittrex and hitbtc), but the buy/ask ratio is looking a bit shitty at the moment. 175 BTC / 500k XMR is about 0.0003 BTC/XMR

[pinky]

Over 500k xmr on the ask book. Most I've seen since the xmr market opened there. Lots of coins on polo and someones jammed a 100k ask in at 0.00225. The games begin.

Unnecessary counter-party risk. He should store his own XMR.

True, but maybe this are peanuts for him. You have some big whales from btc among the owners of xmr.