[XMR] Monero Speculation

[primer-]

Difficulty went from 53110219 to 1017604313 in just a couple of hours...

[Hueristic]

Difficulty went from 53110219 to 1017604313 in just a couple of hours...

Switch your botnet over?

[primer-]

Difficulty went from 53110219 to 1017604313 in just a couple of hours...

Switch your botnet over?

I don't run a botnet, I use company resources, Sugon cluster (300 nodes, around 300kh/s). I dont think this is a botnet, the diff went up too  fast, someone might be manipulating the diff. algo ...

[Hueristic]

Difficulty went from 53110219 to 1017604313 in just a couple of hours...

Switch your botnet over?

I don't run a botnet, I use company resources, Sugon cluster (300 nodes, around 300kh/s). I dont think this is a botnet, the diff went up too  fast, someone might be manipulating the diff. algo ...

How? BTW isn't Sugon software like Beowulf? Or did you mean  Sugon blade server?

[primer-]

Difficulty went from 53110219 to 1017604313 in just a couple of hours...

Switch your botnet over?

I don't run a botnet, I use company resources, Sugon cluster (300 nodes, around 300kh/s). I dont think this is a botnet, the diff went up too  fast, someone might be manipulating the diff. algo ...

How?

I dont know, i came here to ask. How the f. is it possible for diff to double in just a couple hours ?!

[dEBRUYNE]

Difficulty went from 53110219 to 1017604313 in just a couple of hours...

Switch your botnet over?

I don't run a botnet, I use company resources, Sugon cluster (300 nodes, around 300kh/s). I dont think this is a botnet, the diff went up too  fast, someone might be manipulating the diff. algo ...

How?

I dont know, i came here to ask. How the f. is it possible for diff to double in just a couple hours ?!

Might have something to do with these large swings that can be found here -> http://monero.net/xmr_network.html

I am not sure either though.

[medusa13]

hard to say what it is.
since the rise seems to correspond with the "normal" oscilation, my guess is its the same entity. maybe they upgraded the zombiebots, but this wouldnt go so fast. maybe they just allocated more zombies and the botnet these people control is much bigger. maybe they just rent it and got themselfs even more now. no one knows i only speculate

anyway the oscilation is interesting. heard many ideas, someone who steals recouces at night/day is my best explanation. but if its office/company equipment mining, weekends should be visible. but they are not, so maybe its something completely different too..

[binaryFate]

hard to say what it is.
since the rise seems to correspond with the "normal" oscilation, my guess is its the same entity. maybe they upgraded the zombiebots, but this wouldnt go so fast. maybe they just allocated more zombies and the botnet these people control is much bigger. maybe they just rent it and got themselfs even more now. no one knows i only speculate

anyway the oscilation is interesting. heard many ideas, someone who steals recouces at night/day is my best explanation. but if its office/company equipment mining, weekends should be visible. but they are not, so maybe its something completely different too..

Solar panels?

[primer-]

The diff is still increasing, almost all-time-high!
Difficulty: 1087200493

[wpalczynski]

Price will follow hashrate and difficulty.

[Bassica]

Some entities pointed some serious power towards our little gem... Crazy power.

Maybe they've got the hydrogen helix memo?

[Bassica]

Sweet. Weekly MACD about to flip, hopefully the other times it went positive will be of reference:

[obit33]

Price will follow hashrate and difficulty.

why not the other way around? just curious?

best regards

[newb4now]

Some entities pointed some serious power towards our little gem... Crazy power.

Maybe they've got the hydrogen helix memo?

It was a great memo. I hope many people receive it.

[primer-]

Current difficulty : 1124815084

Sept. 2015 - Jan 2016
http://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/monero-difficulty-chart

If my memory serves me right, ATH was 114xxx .. Monero price was .0055 back then..

[smooth]

Price will follow hashrate and difficulty.

why not the other way around? just curious?

There is a degree of effect in both directions but the price to hash rate is more direct. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg13434783#msg13434783

However, other factors can affect hash rate such as the price of other coins that can be mined with the same equipment, so the relationships are always noisy.

[smooth]

Current difficulty : 1124815084

Sept. 2015 - Jan 2016
http://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/monero-difficulty-chart

If my memory serves me right, ATH was 114xxx .. Monero price was .0055 back then..

Chainradar shows 154... on August 30, 2014. But if someone queries the blockchain database they can get an exact number for the highest difficulty on any single block.

[primer-]

Current difficulty : 1124815084

Sept. 2015 - Jan 2016
http://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/monero-difficulty-chart

If my memory serves me right, ATH was 114xxx .. Monero price was .0055 back then..

Chainradar shows 154... on August 30, 2014. But if someone queries the blockchain database they can get an exact number for the highest difficulty on any single block.

Oh, I meant to say 14xx

[primer-]

I hit three blocks in a row again, with less than 300kh/s .. This shouldn't be possible at the current difficulty...

Code:

909839	49 to go	1054658909	eaf7aabb143fe3aef10bdfee8d8ecb7eabc7c32f479d17361493ec90bc8b936e	1/12/2016, 11:53:48 PM	3%
909837	47 to go	1057789727	d52b7b1afb24a093e8d3d642014062a0910d232197ffaa8221f6588ab580ea17	1/12/2016, 11:51:58 PM	10%
909833	43 to go	1060389309	3d7bf46d75c5847a1deed22dfa19da42ad0eb0eb8895dba2fa1990732f0e3514	1/12/2016, 11:45:31 PM	2%
909832	42 to go	1058626345	7f967bbc5076d0cfddc297565acd253dc6b08caddf3f573b321f84cae68b899b	1/12/2016, 11:44:22 PM	3%
909831	41 to go	1057809920	0b355e2c882eff0c0392d2ff49ffb8a06ddfe733e63a761ae966c9d8fe5d5ac0	1/12/2016, 11:42:08 PM	29%

Seems like block propagation is the issue here, once you hit a block probability you get the next one is higher than it should be..

EDIT : This needs to be looked at, pools or anyone with high hash rate might find a way to exploit this..

[binaryFate]

I hit three blocks in a row again, with less than 300kh/s .. This shouldn't be possible at the current difficulty...

Code:

909839	49 to go	1054658909	eaf7aabb143fe3aef10bdfee8d8ecb7eabc7c32f479d17361493ec90bc8b936e	1/12/2016, 11:53:48 PM	3%
909837	47 to go	1057789727	d52b7b1afb24a093e8d3d642014062a0910d232197ffaa8221f6588ab580ea17	1/12/2016, 11:51:58 PM	10%
909833	43 to go	1060389309	3d7bf46d75c5847a1deed22dfa19da42ad0eb0eb8895dba2fa1990732f0e3514	1/12/2016, 11:45:31 PM	2%
909832	42 to go	1058626345	7f967bbc5076d0cfddc297565acd253dc6b08caddf3f573b321f84cae68b899b	1/12/2016, 11:44:22 PM	3%
909831	41 to go	1057809920	0b355e2c882eff0c0392d2ff49ffb8a06ddfe733e63a761ae966c9d8fe5d5ac0	1/12/2016, 11:42:08 PM	29%

Seems like block propagation is the issue here, once you hit a block probability you get the next one is higher than it should be..

EDIT : This needs to be looked at, pools or anyone with high hash rate might find a way to exploit this..

It's not really "higher than it should be", there is no "what it should be". Yes probability to find a block is slightly higher if you know the previous one before anyone else, and it's not an exploit, just a fact due to propagation times.
I doubt this is having a meaningful (visible) impact with 1mn time blocks, but anyway the network will switch to 2mn blocks next hard fork (March).