[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TPTB_need_war]

I really doubt XMR can move (in either direction) 4x compared to DASH in the near future, as that would be a crazy big de-coupling.

I guess that Dash depends on one person who has been ostensibly toying with securities law and FinCEN regulatory jurisdication isn't a big risk of waterfall divergence. I won't even get into technical risks.

Is that irrelevant enough to suit egos here?

Hey TPTB! Glad you saw my post. You claimed to put me on ignore just last night, and already took me off again? That's impressive.

I am informing the readers that I have added spatula to my Ignore list...

Smooth I hope you delete his post and my post as offtopic. I clicked show/hide on his post here in this thread since this isn't the Dash disinformation thread where I put him on Ignore based on his ad hominem. I am not reading his posts there.

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[inca]

I told you guys a month or so ago, that XMR had broken out against BTC and that it wouldn't make lower lows w.r.t. to BTC, but you needed to sell some because the market is going to be incredibly volatile and bear market directed until later this year or Q1 2017.

I explained the reason in my prior post, if you click off to read the detailed post, you will learn something.

No one listens to me  even though I am nearly always correct on the markets. How many examples would you need. I called the first top in ETH, then the overall top in March before others did. I called the rise of silver from $25 to $48 and decline to $26 on Oct 2010 many months before it occurred. I called various moves in Bitcoin such as predicting on this forums last April or May that Bitcoin would rally to $320 then decline.

So, it sounds like you are criticising everyone else for not trading based on your calls, when you didn't trade based on your calls. Correct?

He posted a thread about free money and shorting bitcoin. The price doubled.

[TPTB_need_war]

I told you guys a month or so ago, that XMR had broken out against BTC and that it wouldn't make lower lows w.r.t. to BTC, but you needed to sell some because the market is going to be incredibly volatile and bear market directed until later this year or Q1 2017.

I explained the reason in my prior post, if you click off to read the detailed post, you will learn something.

No one listens to me  even though I am nearly always correct on the markets. How many examples would you need. I called the first top in ETH, then the overall top in March before others did. I called the rise of silver from $25 to $48 and decline to $26 on Oct 2010 many months before it occurred. I called various moves in Bitcoin such as predicting on this forums last April or May that Bitcoin would rally to $320 then decline.

So, it sounds like you are criticising everyone else for not trading based on your calls, when you didn't trade based on your calls. Correct?

He posted a thread about free money and shorting bitcoin. The price doubled.

Liar. The price declined precisely from my predicted $320 price point to the mid-$200s providing an very fast payoff and profitable short. Oh yes I did also post that additional thread too to highlight the points I had made in the PnF thread. And the short did materialize. Note the decline to < $150 has been delayed as I explained upthread (and I have also said that I can't be entirely certain that a decline to < $850 for gold will correlate with a big decline for BTC as well, but I am sticking with that hypothesis). Nevertheless the short from $320 did materialize.

I actually planned to enter the short on Bitfinex (when I discovered I could do it without providing KYC because I don't have the KYC documents here in the Philippines), but one of my inside confidants pleaded with me to not trust Bitfinex, so I decided to remain not a speculator.

I also stated that my stop-loss was $380 and that Bitcoin could go as high as $450 (or I might have written $400 to $500). That was in kLee's PnF thread in the Economics -> Speculation forum. The $320 prediction was in Cypherdorc's thread in that Speculation forum in roughly May. I already explained this upthread here today, why are you lying and making me repeat myself.

[TPTB_need_war]

Actually fed is talking about negative interest rates.  So if raising rates is required for your predictions then it might be awhile.

Sorry to be so frank, but do you have the inability to see certain words in what I write? Did you entirely miss the part where I wrote that the market controls interest rates and not the Fed. Btw, I also referred to the shrinking monetary base.

Note since writing that Armstrong has clarified more his sling shot timing and also the timing of the low, so it has dragged out a couple to few more months. This is because the Fed decided to rescue Europe by not raising interest rates, which is going to make the rise much more precipitous when it comes.

That is what my post that started this discussion was detailing

Ah - yes.  I missed it.  My bad.

Also in the full post that I quoted from which I urged readers to read has more statements that I am referring to (which I assumed you had read if you are entering this discussion):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg14525104#msg14525104

[cAPSLOCK]

Selling volume is declining, we also saw some wicks indicating that buyers are still present and closely watching. I am speculating that we might see some buying pressure to 0.003-0.0033 to mess up with shorters and then retest and hopefully double bottom. However we must take into the account that daily trend is still bearish and I would treat it as such. Weekly trend is caught in the range between 0.001-0.004.

Good Analysis.

[TPTB_need_war]

Selling volume is declining, we also saw some wicks indicating that buyers are still present and closely watching. I am speculating that we might see some buying pressure to 0.003-0.0033 to mess up with shorters and then retest and hopefully double bottom. However we must take into the account that daily trend is still bearish and I would treat it as such. Weekly trend is caught in the range between 0.001-0.004.

Good Analysis.

Short-term noise that no one can possibly predict anything with better than 50/50 odds. In short, useless post for speculators who want quick gains and thus are destined to lose their shirts.

It is not even proper day trading methodology.

[TPTB_need_war]

There is no free market price discovery in bots eh. How come there already is one?

For example, installing spyware on 1,000 machines in Australia earns $100 but only $50 in the US, and a measly $3 in Asia. A sample price list obtained by net security services firm sheds fresh light on the phenomenon.

MeesageLabs culled its figures from a malware distribution site in Russia, the existence of which we've verified. The site is loaded with malware and for that reason we'll refer to it by a shortened version of its name, installscash.org.

The site boasts that it already works with 300 webmasters and has four years of experience to fall back on. It boasts of friendly support services and prompt payment. All in all it's all very cybercrime 2.0.

The site boasts: "Anybody can work with our partnership program InstallsCash! You have to do only one thing! Put a short one line iframe code on ur page(s) and START MAKING MONEY!"

"You won't lose your unique visitors with us! You can also have your own exe," it adds.

Following these instructions by the addition of a simple line of code boobytraps web pages with code that attempts to install spyware onto the PCs of visiting surfers. Infected sites might be hosted on a hacked site, a site hosted on a web server or even a botnet-hosted web page.

Instructions could then be issued to the offending botnet computers to visit the page, download the code and execute it. Once the spyware is installed, it would register with the "seller" and the "affiliate" would then be paid.

Where are the 1000s of prosecutions of botnet farmers? The ones who farmed 10,000 bots and such. All I see are headline cases. Prosecutions in Russia, Pakistan, Nigeria, etc?

The government can't control this. It is too porous. There is no social contract. It is a defacto laissez-faire free market.

Victims are in a free market. You know how nature is. Adapt or lose.

Pray tell me how to form a social contract on preventing and not allowing anyone to harvest/use/rent botnets?

How many victims of botnets had their brain chemically altered for potentially the rest of their life? Equating this morally (social contract priority) to drug dealing is rational?

Cheap electricity (even the free variant obtained with corruption) is sourced from an oligarchy. Where is the oligarchy in sourcing botnets and cooperative victims? The botnet market is efficient and highly decentralized.

What is the moral hazard of rewarding victims for being irresponsible?

When you get every single point wrong, one has to wonder.

[inca]

Too much noise on this thread.

Price double bounced off 0.002. Some buying pressure here.

[owlcatz]

Too much noise on this thread.

Price double bounced off 0.002. Some buying pressure here.

Strange. I only have one user on ignore, and it all seems fine to me.

[Bagatell]

@owlcatz likewise.

[rdnkjdi]

How many victims of botnets had their brain chemically altered for potentially the rest of their life? Equating this morally (social contract priority) to drug dealing is rational?

This was not a moral thing.  In some countries both drugs and botnets are effectively legal.  In most they are outlawed which makes them a black market.  Not a free market.  

Morally / personally I don't have a personal issue with botnets or drug dealers.  

But both are black markets.

Blackmarket != free market.  We can agree to disagree and move on.

[TPTB_need_war]

Blackmarket != free market

Couldn't be more wrong. Sometimes black markets are the only free market.

Too much noise on this thread.

Price double bounced off 0.002. Some buying pressure here.

Strange. I only have one user on ignore, and it all seems fine to me.

Note how he didn't reply to my claim that he was lying. How convenient.

Seems I am not wanted in this nonsense thread, so I will recluse myself.

As if the discussion of botnets and CPU mining is irrelevant to speculating on Monero's future, given Monero is the only real CPU mined coin of significance.  If the hypocrisy in this thread was not so obviously just ego stroker addiction I might want to cry.

Adios 'tards (not meant towards any specific person and presumably those who it is directed are oblivious any way since it is clear they never believed in meritocracy).

[rdnkjdi]

Blackmarket != free market

Couldn't be more wrong. Sometimes black markets are the only free market.


Seems I am not wanted in this nonsense thread, so I will recluse myself.

Adios tards.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_market

A free market is a system in which the prices for goods and services are set freely by consent between vendors and consumers, in which the laws and forces of supply and demand are free from any intervention by a government ...

When you have to personally risk going to jail for participating in a market due to government intervention by definition it ceases to be "free market".  Govt is exercising their power monopoly to make it no longer a free market.

[TPTB_need_war]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_market

A free market is a system in which the prices for goods and services are set freely by consent between vendors and consumers, in which the laws and forces of supply and demand are free from any intervention by a government ...

When you have to personally risk going to jail for participating in a market due to government intervention by definition it ceases to be "free market".  Govt is exercising their power monopoly to make it no longer a free market.

I am convinced you don't even read my posts. I already explained the government has no control. Botnet farmers and victims are too numerous and too decentralized.

Now please let me recluse myself from this experience of trying to pull a pubic hair out of my ass via my throat pathway. I've learned my lesson never to venture into this (smells) funny corner of the internet again.

Seems I am not wanted in this nonsense thread, so I will recluse myself.

Adios 'tards (not meant towards any specific person and presumably those who it is directed are oblivious any way since it is clear they never believed in meritocracy).

Says the one person in this thread with the most obvious case of mental disability. Nice.

Quoted for posterity. It usually helps to triangularize to establish a true bearing.

[smooth]

Yep.  Still going for pretty damn accurate summary.

So it looks to me like XMR has bottomed.  I could be way off but this is a lot of volume compared to what I remember XMR being several months ago (500K).  Also this is really going to be the last several months that Monero has reasonable emissions in my opinion.

At some point it feels like Monero has to go past Dash.  The only thing I can really come up with is that the artificial controls for the Dash emission combined with the super high XMR inflation rate early on has really skewed with the market caps on both.  I feel like it's pretty safe to assume that Monero jumps past Dash this year.  After that I don't know.

In terms of price, once one unwinds the price and supply effects of the masternode interest scheme (possibly combined with the effects of concentrated illiquid holdings), the two are very close to parity. In terms of equivalently-adjusted market cap, XMR's is roughly 1.5 times higher. That is consistent with the comparison you get if you use other objective coin evaluation metrics independent of market cap.

I'll leave how I derived these numbers as an exercise to the reader for now with the hint that it is almost entirely objective.

[smooth]

Deleted because personal attacks are not allowed.

I'm asking everyone involved in this long back and forth to step back and return to the thread when you are able to discuss specifically Monero Speculation. If you would like to continue the discussion elsewhere you are welcome to post (only) a forwarding link here.

Says the one person in this thread with the most obvious case of mental disability. Nice.

[TPTB_need_war]

I'll leave how I derived these numbers as an exercise to the reader for now with the hint that it is almost entirely objective.

smoothie replied before you wrote your post:

So then basically everything you've said is just words.

No facts/proof to back up your bold claims.

No worries. On to the next thread...

Hypocrisy is not meritocracy. It is even worse in that it is self-defeating.

[spatula]

Deleted because personal attacks are not allowed.

So he calls people he disagrees with "'tards" and you don't delete his posts? My post was way less offensive. You should apply your moderation powers equally.

[generalizethis]

Blackmarket != free market

Couldn't be more wrong. Sometimes black markets are the only free market.


Seems I am not wanted in this nonsense thread, so I will recluse myself.

Adios tards.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_market

A free market is a system in which the prices for goods and services are set freely by consent between vendors and consumers, in which the laws and forces of supply and demand are free from any intervention by a government ...

When you have to personally risk going to jail for participating in a market due to government intervention by definition it ceases to be "free market".  Govt is exercising their power monopoly to make it no longer a free market.

I tend to disagree here, as governments sometimes use blackmarkets to fund activities (such as arms deals for the enemy of my enemy, interaction with covert ops and drug money, intelligence and data for hire, ect.), so in a certain respect the government is beholden for the black markets survival to increase their black ops power, so it is really much more mutual in many cases than generally perceived and a delicate balance between the powers that be and the powers that be hidden--you could argue that a large government could crack down, but since these markets are mostly international, their reach and willingness to forgo the benefits would be tested. And yes, this doesn't mean it's free for everyone, but it also means that normal regulatory powers aren't usually the powers at play, but crime syndicates keeping the crooks in line--that's about as free as a market can get.

[TheKoziTwo]

Blackmarket != free market

Couldn't be more wrong. Sometimes black markets are the only free market.


Seems I am not wanted in this nonsense thread, so I will recluse myself.

Adios tards.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_market

A free market is a system in which the prices for goods and services are set freely by consent between vendors and consumers, in which the laws and forces of supply and demand are free from any intervention by a government ...

When you have to personally risk going to jail for participating in a market due to government intervention by definition it ceases to be "free market".  Govt is exercising their power monopoly to make it no longer a free market.

There is no such thing as a free market except the black market. All other markets involves some kind of government regulation. If you need to run a company you already have a barrier to entry. In a truly free market you do not need to run a company, pay taxes or deliver income receipt to the government. There is no such thing as asking for permission in a free market.

There's an old Chinese saying; "No one rules if no one obeys". There's a whole lot of truth to that. A "black market" would be the definition of a free market: A market with zero government intervention. Because if the laws are ignored they do not apply. Unfortunately there's not enough people who ignore the law, so those currently operating in the free market risks getting jailed as you said. I wouldn't say it ceases to be a free market, only that it's under attack.

If anything we need to draw the conclusion that there is no such thing as a free market.