[XMR] Monero Speculation

[nioc]

Well I finally received my btc which I had earmarked for Monero   I check the charts and figure maybe I can get it a bit lower but am undecided.  I check to see what the price on ShapeShift is and see that they are still down

"Soon" I will get me a wee bit more Moneroj 

Anybody want to speculate what the price will be when ShapeShift is once again available?

[1715628536]

1715628536

[1715628536]

1715628536

[1715628536]

1715628536

[spatula]

I'll leave how I derived these numbers as an exercise to the reader for now with the hint that it is almost entirely objective.

smoothie replied before you wrote your post:

So then basically everything you've said is just words.

No facts/proof to back up your bold claims.

No worries. On to the next thread...

Hypocrisy is not meritocracy. It is even worse in that it is self-defeating.

You may not like how I presented it as a bit of a puzzle, but it isn't an extraordinary claim. What does Dash have that would support a higher price/cap:

1. Does it have more development as evidenced by github metrics (commits, etc.)?
2. Does it have more more discussion on neutral forums such as reddit/twitter/etc.
3. Does it have evidence of more transaction usage outside of investors?
4. Does it have more trading volume?
5. Does it have more available liquidity on order books?
6. Is it primarily traded on a different/better exchange making it accessible to more/different investors?
7. Does it have better search rankings (have to be a bit careful here to not find detergent ads, etc.)
8. Does it have more coverage by journalists, including bloggers, podcasts, etc.? (Especially unpaid coverage.)
9. Does have more/better recognition for soundness by influential technical experts?
10. Is there evidence of new users joining the community at a higher rate?

The answer to all of these is no. The two are either comparable or Monero is stronger.

Now if you ask why the price/cap is what it is, the obvious answer has to do with supply dynamics.

Let's not forget that until recently Bytecoin was also ranked higher than Monero for a year or more, at times quite a bit higher, while at the same time failing on most or all of the above metrics along with others. Those of us looking at the fundamentals said the very same thing -- that it was where it was because of supply dynamics, not fundamentals. Sure enough Bytecoin is now at about 1/2 of Monero's market cap, and was recently much lower than that.

Obsession with market cap (and cap ranking, price) as a particularly meaningful indicator of anything is a blind spot of many crypto investors. Don't be blind.

Oh that looks fun. Let me give it a go. Do I have to limit mine to 10 as well?


11. Does it have more features?
12. Does it have a GUI wallet?
13. Does it have working mobile wallets? (ios and android)
14. Does it have more full nodes?
15. Does it have a built in funding/budgeting system?
16. Does it have (near) instant transactions?
17. Does it have a governance model?
18. Is it accepted by more vendors?
19. Does it have ATM integration?
20. Is its codebase compatible with existing bitcoin based systems?

[smooth]

I'll leave how I derived these numbers as an exercise to the reader for now with the hint that it is almost entirely objective.

smoothie replied before you wrote your post:

So then basically everything you've said is just words.

No facts/proof to back up your bold claims.

No worries. On to the next thread...

Hypocrisy is not meritocracy. It is even worse in that it is self-defeating.

You may not like how I presented it as a bit of a puzzle, but it isn't an extraordinary claim. What does Dash have that would support a higher price/cap:

1. Does it have more development as evidenced by github metrics (commits, etc.)?
2. Does it have more more discussion on neutral forums such as reddit/twitter/etc.
3. Does it have evidence of more transaction usage outside of investors?
4. Does it have more trading volume?
5. Does it have more available liquidity on order books?
6. Is it primarily traded on a different/better exchange making it accessible to more/different investors?
7. Does it have better search rankings (have to be a bit careful here to not find detergent ads, etc.)
8. Does it have more coverage by journalists, including bloggers, podcasts, etc.? (Especially unpaid coverage.)
9. Does have more/better recognition for soundness by influential technical experts?
10. Is there evidence of new users joining the community at a higher rate?

The answer to all of these is no. The two are either comparable or Monero is stronger.

Now if you ask why the price/cap is what it is, the obvious answer has to do with supply dynamics.

Let's not forget that until recently Bytecoin was also ranked higher than Monero for a year or more, at times quite a bit higher, while at the same time failing on most or all of the above metrics along with others. Those of us looking at the fundamentals said the very same thing -- that it was where it was because of supply dynamics, not fundamentals. Sure enough Bytecoin is now at about 1/2 of Monero's market cap, and was recently much lower than that.

Obsession with market cap (and cap ranking, price) as a particularly meaningful indicator of anything is a blind spot of many crypto investors. Don't be blind.

Oh that looks fun. Let me give it a go. Do I have to limit mine to 10 as well?

11. Does it have more features?
12. Does it have a GUI wallet?
13. Does it have working mobile wallets? (ios and android)
14. Does it have more full nodes?
15. Does it have a built in funding/budgeting system?
16. Does it have (near) instant transactions?
17. Does it have a governance model?
18. Is it accepted by more vendors?
19. Does it have ATM integration?
20. Is its codebase compatible with existing bitcoin based systems?

With respect, I don't consider most of those relevant factors to market value. I'm pretty sure you can find smaller to much smaller market value Bitcoin forks with most or all of those too. As far as #12 and #13 we do have at least one working GUI (lightwallet) and one working Android wallet. Along those lines does Dash have a blockchain.info-style web wallet like MyMonero? I'm not sure.

Maybe #16 yes. Things like #19 are theoretically interesting, but how many ATMs are there and how much are they used? If there is a trajectory to high market penetration, then I would agree, but I haven't see evidence of it. Same with #18. The number might be a bit higher, but it is still extremely small and there is little evidence of people using the coin for shopping on any significant scale.

The thing is, all the coins are speculative bets on future adoption (or just speculative assets to trade for fun and profit). The metrics I listed are better measures of trajectory toward future adoption than the ones you listed, which are more about current implementation. Exception #18 noted.

[dEBRUYNE]

I'll leave how I derived these numbers as an exercise to the reader for now with the hint that it is almost entirely objective.

smoothie replied before you wrote your post:

So then basically everything you've said is just words.

No facts/proof to back up your bold claims.

No worries. On to the next thread...

Hypocrisy is not meritocracy. It is even worse in that it is self-defeating.

You may not like how I presented it as a bit of a puzzle, but it isn't an extraordinary claim. What does Dash have that would support a higher price/cap:

1. Does it have more development as evidenced by github metrics (commits, etc.)?
2. Does it have more more discussion on neutral forums such as reddit/twitter/etc.
3. Does it have evidence of more transaction usage outside of investors?
4. Does it have more trading volume?
5. Does it have more available liquidity on order books?
6. Is it primarily traded on a different/better exchange making it accessible to more/different investors?
7. Does it have better search rankings (have to be a bit careful here to not find detergent ads, etc.)
8. Does it have more coverage by journalists, including bloggers, podcasts, etc.? (Especially unpaid coverage.)
9. Does have more/better recognition for soundness by influential technical experts?
10. Is there evidence of new users joining the community at a higher rate?

The answer to all of these is no. The two are either comparable or Monero is stronger.

Now if you ask why the price/cap is what it is, the obvious answer has to do with supply dynamics.

Let's not forget that until recently Bytecoin was also ranked higher than Monero for a year or more, at times quite a bit higher, while at the same time failing on most or all of the above metrics along with others. Those of us looking at the fundamentals said the very same thing -- that it was where it was because of supply dynamics, not fundamentals. Sure enough Bytecoin is now at about 1/2 of Monero's market cap, and was recently much lower than that.

Obsession with market cap (and cap ranking, price) as a particularly meaningful indicator of anything is a blind spot of many crypto investors. Don't be blind.

Oh that looks fun. Let me give it a go. Do I have to limit mine to 10 as well?


11. Does it have more features?
12. Does it have a GUI wallet?
13. Does it have working mobile wallets? (ios and android)
14. Does it have more full nodes?
15. Does it have a built in funding/budgeting system?
16. Does it have (near) instant transactions?
17. Does it have a governance model?
18. Is it accepted by more vendors?
19. Does it have ATM integration?
20. Is its codebase compatible with existing bitcoin based systems?

I'll respond for now, but I genuinely don't want to make this another DASH vs XMR thread.

#11 - Depends on what you consider "features". One could argue that making the system more complex by adding (perhaps unnecessary) features doesn't really make it any more valuable. In fact, it could result in a new set of attack vectors which could possibly be detrimental to its value.

#12 - soon™ I guess. I agree with you though that having a GUI is important for at least "adoption" within the cryptocurrency atmosphere.

#13 - Someone is working on that (ios) and yes (android).

#14 - Depends how you look at it. I bet most XMR full nodes are running at home, whereas the nodes of DASH are for the greatest part (probably >90%) hosted on cloud hosting services. The masternode design actually gives an incentive to host your masternode on a cloud hosting service, which in my opinion leads to centralization.

#15 - Well, DASH uses blockchain funds to fund projects, whereas Monero relies on fundraisers / projects that are funded by the community. In my opinion, the latter will result in more valuable, wisely chosen and well thought out projects to fund, whereas the former will result in literally throwing money at everything that kind of looks good and perhaps will benefit DASH.

#16 - Some kind of sidechains could be useful for that. For now I agree with you, but I think TPTB_need_war has also pointed out that the design is kind of flawed. So I'd like to see it a bit more thorougly vetted before making claims that it's really instant and safe.

#17 - Governance model is described in the year in review -> https://getmonero.org/2016/02/10/monero-missive-2015-year-in-review.html

#18 - You can pay any Bitcoin address with Monero using XMR.to. Not sure if DASH has such a feature. I kind of agree with smooth as well on this point. In addition, merchants are only useful if people really use them. Most Bitcoin merchants barely see any traffic. Besides, nearly all of them cash out immediately to fiat.

#19 - I agree with smooth here too. The fees are usually high (i.e. >5%) and most ATMs require verification. Also, most ATMs hardly see any traffic because most people will choose a more cheaper option. Even localbitcoins got way better rates than most ATMs.

#20 - A Bitcoin compatible RPC API, with in addition walletnotify / blocknotify, is on the roadmap -> https://getmonero.org/design-goals/. Having the same codebase has both its advantages and disadvantages.

[spatula]

The thing is, all the coins are speculative bets on future adoption (or just speculative assets to trade for fun and profit). The metrics I listed are better measures of trajectory toward future adoption than the ones you listed, which are more about current implementation.

Well my comment was actually just in jest, poking fun at your seemingly biased list. I'm sure we could go around and around about what investors see as important and what could lead to long-term mainstream adoption, in an experiment that has never been done before. DASH and XMR (and pretty much all crypto) are travelling in uncharted waters.

As this is the Monero speculation thread, I speculate that unless some new form of super privacy coin throws its hat into the ring, XMR has the future strong privacy market locked up. DASH on the other hand, I think will have its future position as a protocol level payment platform, based on current development roadmaps.

Either way, there is going to be so many users (and money) flowing into crypto in the coming years that any coin that can hang on in the top 20 is going to see unprecedented gains. We just need to be prepared for when the floodgates open, and have our niche markets well defined and polished.

[Monerobuyer0]

Anybody want to speculate what the price will be when ShapeShift is once again available?

Higher than it is now if I am able to buy more before you do.

[nioc]

Anybody want to speculate what the price will be when ShapeShift is once again available?

Higher than it is now if I am able to buy more before you do.

Be my guest

It went down 2% from when I posted that I thought it was going down a little and that is all I expected very short term and would now buy if I could.  One day at a time, the noise that will one day be music.

[lolikop]

The biggest dump in history of XMR is in my way the best thing that could ever happen

Many people think this is just another margin coin with the best way to short it, but soon they will all just watch to see it reach a new ATH

[smooth]

Well my comment was actually just in jest, poking fun at your seemingly biased list. I'm sure we could go around and around about what investors see as important and what could lead to long-term mainstream adoption, in an experiment that has never been done before. DASH and XMR (and pretty much all crypto) are travelling in uncharted waters.

It is a fair question how the list was constructed. A healthy portion of the items there come directly from coingecko.com. While I can't say that their methodology is perfect, I'm not aware of another site that comprehensively rates coins based on a variety of factors. So if one wants to compare market cap with other other metrics, that's really the only way to do so (outside of doing a lot of costly original research).

This method has been both effective in identifying coins whose market cap ranking is out of line with other fundamentals and also apparently predictive (an informal observation; not tested rigorously) in the case of coins such as Ripple, Nxt, Bitshares, etc.

This is not the primary basis for my comments about Dash's price and market cap being inflated, however. I offered it as support for the idea that this claim is not a radical one when viewed against the backdrop of other fundamental factors (just as it was not radical to claim that Bytecoin's market cap being higher than Monero's was also inflated).

BTW, coingecko's methods are highly flawed in the case of coins, such as Litecoin, which were once extremely popular and active and are less so now. That's because many of the metrics are cumulative or effectively cumulative (all of the github metrics for example), therefore actions in the distant past have disproportionate influence relative to the current reality. However, this probably has little effect in the case of Dash and Monero.

[vuduchyld]

<----accumulation phase

[Days]

The biggest dump in history of XMR is in my way the best thing that could ever happen

Many people think this is just another margin coin with the best way to short it, but soon they will all just watch to see it reach a new ATH

Let me tell u the real problem with XMR.

its the devs, they dont work hard enough to make this wonderful coin succeed im waiting for 2 years for an GUI wallet not that i cant run a simplewallet !!!

its about adoption we need a GUI to go mainstream but the devs are taking it easy lets wait another year or maybe 3 years fk it im out for now

^people like lolikpop cant seem 2 be able 2 fathom that the Monero developers are some of the most capable in this sphere. there r only  AT MOST two hand full of capable developers. The core of Munero is already rock solid, and it is being extended further.  who in their right mind would argue the lack of GUI is a huge problem, when in fact there is an excellent GUI available already.

~CfA~

lmoa only if you really sold, guess those developers beat you to it along with rpietila & truecryptonaire. The GUI wallet is postponed because there is nothing but copy paste in their work if this is out then what?!; you have spammers like Smooth gamblers like Othe & Fluffypony with no vision of coding skills. Your best way to get out now is to spam like the rest of them and hope you really get out in the next pump.

[smooth]

lmoa only if you really sold, guess those developers beat you to it along with rpietila & truecryptonaire. The GUI wallet is postponed because there is nothing but copy paste in their work if this is out then what?!; you have spammers like Smooth gamblers like Othe & Fluffypony with no vision of coding skills. Your best way to get out now is to spam like the rest of them and hope you really get out in the next pump.

Just to correct you on one thing. The official GUI wallet is not postponed, it is under active development as stated in the project proposal. More here: https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/2476/the-official-qt-gui-project

If you are looking for other GUI wallets you can find them here: https://getmonero.org/getting-started/choose

[Days]

lmoa only if you really sold, guess those developers beat you to it along with rpietila & truecryptonaire. The GUI wallet is postponed because there is nothing but copy paste in their work if this is out then what?!; you have spammers like Smooth gamblers like Othe & Fluffypony with no vision of coding skills. Your best way to get out now is to spam like the rest of them and hope you really get out in the next pump.

Just to correct you on one thing. The official GUI wallet is not postponed, it is under active development as stated in the project proposal. More here: https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/2476/the-official-qt-gui-project

If you are looking for other GUI wallets you can find them here: https://getmonero.org/getting-started/choose

I know it's "under active development" for two years now I am just saying that you are postponing it's release to milk out more people out since it is YOUR prize development for last two years. Adding copy paste useless commits to create the illusion of a very active development is old news now and the reason for you and your colleagues not releasing it sooner is because there is nothing else coming after that. It is as if you guys came up and pretended to be active developers yet all you did was simple coding skills with copy pasting all the way down.

[smooth]

I know it's "under active development" for two years

Just to correct you on one thing. The official GUI wallet has not been under active development for two years. The project was funded and started at the end of January. You can find more info here: https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/2476/the-official-qt-gui-project

Adding copy paste useless commits

Please tell us about your qualifications (or those of the experts on whom you are relying) to evaluate which commits are useless and which are not. Investors might want to know whether there is some substance to your accusations.

[GingerAle]

lmoa only if you really sold, guess those developers beat you to it along with rpietila & truecryptonaire. The GUI wallet is postponed because there is nothing but copy paste in their work if this is out then what?!; you have spammers like Smooth gamblers like Othe & Fluffypony with no vision of coding skills. Your best way to get out now is to spam like the rest of them and hope you really get out in the next pump.

Just to correct you on one thing. The official GUI wallet is not postponed, it is under active development as stated in the project proposal. More here: https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/2476/the-official-qt-gui-project

If you are looking for other GUI wallets you can find them here: https://getmonero.org/getting-started/choose

I know it's "under active development" for two years now I am just saying that you are postponing it's release to milk out more people out since it is YOUR prize development for last two years. Adding copy paste useless commits to create the illusion of a very active development is old news now and the reason for you and your colleagues not releasing it sooner is because there is nothing else coming after that. It is as if you guys came up and pretended to be active developers yet all you did was simple coding skills with copy pasting all the way down.

Also please comment how you've managed to miss the fact that RingCT, adaptive fee calculations, multisig transactions, and i2p integration will be happening? How is nothing coming after the GUI?

[griffen1102]

lmoa only if you really sold, guess those developers beat you to it along with rpietila & truecryptonaire. The GUI wallet is postponed because there is nothing but copy paste in their work if this is out then what?!; you have spammers like Smooth gamblers like Othe & Fluffypony with no vision of coding skills. Your best way to get out now is to spam like the rest of them and hope you really get out in the next pump.

Just to correct you on one thing. The official GUI wallet is not postponed, it is under active development as stated in the project proposal. More here: https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/2476/the-official-qt-gui-project

If you are looking for other GUI wallets you can find them here: https://getmonero.org/getting-started/choose

I know it's "under active development" for two years now I am just saying that you are postponing it's release to milk out more people out since it is YOUR prize development for last two years. Adding copy paste useless commits to create the illusion of a very active development is old news now and the reason for you and your colleagues not releasing it sooner is because there is nothing else coming after that. It is as if you guys came up and pretended to be active developers yet all you did was simple coding skills with copy pasting all the way down.

I feel your frustration man I really do. I means it a fucking GUI wallet right? Every fucking shit coin from here to China has one at launch yet here we are waiting months for one and this waiting game sucks.

But we have to be patient because unless you can do anything to fix it or contribute to it than all your doing is complaining like a prepubescent girl. And I'm not hating on you for wanting the wallet because Like I said I'm right there with you, but I can't do anything to make it go faster. As for the commits comment you made, these are some of the highest quality devs I've interacted with (IRC, forums, ect) in all the coins I've invested in.

[r0ach]

I feel your frustration man I really do. I means it a fucking GUI wallet right? Every fucking shit coin from here to China has one at launch yet here we are waiting months for one and this waiting game sucks.

Reading Monero threads is starting to become the movie Groundhog's Day. 

[nioc]

I feel your frustration man I really do. I means it a fucking GUI wallet right? Every fucking shit coin from here to China has one at launch yet here we are waiting months for one and this waiting game sucks.

Reading Monero threads is starting to become the movie Groundhog's Day. 

Maybe but there is no way this thread can compete with the true Goundhog's Day thread that is Adam's "Wall Observer" thread 

[rdnkjdi]

I feel like this is such a stupid question that's been asked more than anything about XMR over the last year and a half.  But the GUI ...  I see progress here - https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/2476/the-official-qt-gui-project

Are the numbers at the side of each week the number of hours the dev has worked? (17.5 of estimated 280 hours)  Am I reading this correctly?

[TheKoziTwo]

I feel like this is such a stupid question that's been asked more than anything about XMR over the last year and a half.  But the GUI ... when