[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

@TrueCryptonaire. How can you say that if growth starts to accelerate, the risk of a correction will be imminent? That is counterintuitive. Should it not be the opposite? If the growth is growing, the risk of a correction will become smaller and smaller.

I also want to ask how is the growth of Monero use in the darknet market place? Are more vendors using it?

I refered to the speculative bubbles which often pop. That being said, the bubbles pop at higher level than started initially.
In case of organic growth it is exponential indeed (if there are 2 people using it and each convince 1 people, the userbase is 4. But if 4 uses and convinces 1 user each, the growth is twice as high as it was 2 preachers preaching the good news).
Monero is far far from being a mature project in order to dumps being eaten by the markets. Bitcoin has reached closer to that point but even it is still too small for being stable. However, chances are good Monero will develope at faster rate than btc thanks to the second mover advantage.

I have no idea how much vendors use XMR but unfortunately we cannot prevent the junkies and criminals using the best alt.

Ok I get it now. Thanks for clarifying. That is natural in any market and we have to try our best to be in right side of it. In the topic of junkies and criminals using Monero, is it not exactly that where its real, organic value comes from? We have to accept that the perfect use case for anonymous cryptocoins is exactly for the darknet.

No we don't, the ability to have and hold value without monitoring is an inalienable right afa I'm concerned and i think everyone should hold that belief.

[ArticMine]

...

No we don't, the ability to have and hold value without monitoring is an inalienable right afa I'm concerned and i think everyone should hold that belief.

I agree. In addition privacy and anonymity are needed in order to ensure fungibility in crypto currencies, and fungibility is is a necessary requirement of money. Then there is of course the adaptive blocksize in Monero which ensures that there is no arbitrary limit on the number of transactions per second. 

[Hueristic]

...

No we don't, the ability to have and hold value without monitoring is an inalienable right afa I'm concerned and i think everyone should hold that belief.

I agree. In addition privacy and anonymity are needed in order to ensure fungibility in crypto currencies, and fungibility is is a necessary requirement of money. Then there is of course the adaptive blocksize in Monero which ensures that there is no arbitrary limit on the number of transactions per second. 

People in this scene don't know how important and rare this is.

[ozkraut]

...

No we don't, the ability to have and hold value without monitoring is an inalienable right afa I'm concerned and i think everyone should hold that belief.

I agree. In addition privacy and anonymity are needed in order to ensure fungibility in crypto currencies, and fungibility is is a necessary requirement of money. Then there is of course the adaptive blocksize in Monero which ensures that there is no arbitrary limit on the number of transactions per second. 

People in this scene don't know how important and rare this is.

People in the Monero scene dont know? I wouldnt think so. Quite a few appreciate the whole package. Even Satoshi is proud of it but cant say (;-)

[Hueristic]

...

No we don't, the ability to have and hold value without monitoring is an inalienable right afa I'm concerned and i think everyone should hold that belief.

I agree. In addition privacy and anonymity are needed in order to ensure fungibility in crypto currencies, and fungibility is is a necessary requirement of money. Then there is of course the adaptive blocksize in Monero which ensures that there is no arbitrary limit on the number of transactions per second. 

People in this scene don't know how important and rare this is.

People in the Monero scene dont know? I wouldnt think so. Quite a few appreciate the whole package. Even Satoshi is proud of it but cant say (;-)

LOL, the crypto scene as a whole.

[ArticMine]

...

People in this scene don't know how important and rare this is.

This is very true. Take for example the monetary policy move by ETC away from a tail emission similar to Monero to a falling emission similar to Bitcoin.

Good update on ETC developments: https://steemit.com/ethereum/@finpunk/ethereum-classic-gets-more-interesting-more-developers-and-a-new-monetary-policy

[ozkraut]

On another note:

seems some people outside of crypto are getting it:

http://wmstudios.com.au/index.php/news/blog/102-monero-is-the-currency-bitcoin-tried-to-be

[fiscorcle]

On another note:

seems some people outside of crypto are getting it:

http://wmstudios.com.au/index.php/news/blog/102-monero-is-the-currency-bitcoin-tried-to-be

People loooove it for the drugs. its on one of the biggest darknet markets now

[Chin Cheng]

On another note:

seems some people outside of crypto are getting it:

http://wmstudios.com.au/index.php/news/blog/102-monero-is-the-currency-bitcoin-tried-to-be

Monero is having the hype behind it being an anonymous coin which can be traded in the dark market, but the problem is people who trade in the onion markets are a few compared to the general public who sees bitcoin as a mode of investment rather than a currency and that is the biggest difference between the two.

[DaveyJones]

On another note:

seems some people outside of crypto are getting it:

http://wmstudios.com.au/index.php/news/blog/102-monero-is-the-currency-bitcoin-tried-to-be

Monero is having the hype behind it being an anonymous coin which can be traded in the dark market, but the problem is people who trade in the onion markets are a few compared to the general public who sees bitcoin as a mode of investment rather than a currency and that is the biggest difference between the two.

But that is also the biggest reason why monero could potentially skyrocket... what do people like with their investments... if they rise... what is most probable to rise nearest to BTC value, the altcoin that most people will call "The Next Bitcoin" thus this will make monero also kind of investment if people fear of missing the ship another time.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I have no idea how much vendors use XMR but unfortunately we cannot prevent the junkies and criminals using the best alt.

What is considered 'criminal behaviour' is very very relative in time and space, depends on who's in charge, societal climate etc etc... And yes, these people, whose behaviour has been outlawed will seek the best way to hide said behaviour... This is not something which anyone should seek to prevent, at least not by diminishing anonimity/privacy and thus fungibility in a currency

Criminal = outlawed.
If you live in Somalia which has no law and order there is obviously many things possible but if we look at the majority of countries, most of them has outlawed drugs and certain type of pornography for instance.
The criminal activity has partially ruined the reputation of bitcoin (many still think it is a currency of criminals) so it may not be good for the reputation in the beginning. Therefore, being accepted by the D.N.M. is kinda double edged sword: on the one hand it is nice that XMR has some real use case, on the other hand, it might create reputation to the XMR of being the currency of the bad guys.

This is the largest criminal asset of all time.



It has such a bad reputation no-one will accept it, right?

Well to be fair maybe gold is larger but the point still stands.

I think you are confusing with terms of crime and morals.
Dollar as a system can be perceived as immoral (stealing purchasing power by inflation) but it is not criminal because the legislators have approved it. It is also a social contract that the governement has a right to collect tax and inflation is one form of a tax, if I am not mistaken, even Ben Bernanke has admitted this.
In case you meant the use cases of dollars being used by the criminals, you are right in one way The majority of drug deals, hitman fees etc are paid with cold hard cash. That being said, the criminal use cases of Monero or bitcoin represents probably higher percentage than it represents in fiat. So it is relative also.

[Globb0]

@TrueCryptonaire. How can you say that if growth starts to accelerate, the risk of a correction will be imminent? That is counterintuitive. Should it not be the opposite? If the growth is growing, the risk of a correction will become smaller and smaller.

I also want to ask how is the growth of Monero use in the darknet market place? Are more vendors using it?

I refered to the speculative bubbles which often pop. That being said, the bubbles pop at higher level than started initially.
In case of organic growth it is exponential indeed (if there are 2 people using it and each convince 1 people, the userbase is 4. But if 4 uses and convinces 1 user each, the growth is twice as high as it was 2 preachers preaching the good news).
Monero is far far from being a mature project in order to dumps being eaten by the markets. Bitcoin has reached closer to that point but even it is still too small for being stable. However, chances are good Monero will develope at faster rate than btc thanks to the second mover advantage.

I have no idea how much vendors use XMR but unfortunately we cannot prevent the junkies and criminals using the best alt.

Ok I get it now. Thanks for clarifying. That is natural in any market and we have to try our best to be in right side of it. In the topic of junkies and criminals using Monero, is it not exactly that where its real, organic value comes from? We have to accept that the perfect use case for anonymous cryptocoins is exactly for the darknet.

Its one case. But really good is the ability to pay someone and not have then see everything you spent in the past or future or where, or how much you have etc.

[Dotto]

Loving the ping pong - enough volatility to hit a few of my sells and then drop a little so I can buy 'em back and accumulate MOAR!

XMR looking chipper though, Dotto - I trust you're well, Sir?

Fantastic, Kurious. A bit disconected from crypto this time, waiting for the big tide

[koryu]

looking for break out up here

[Globb0]

Loving the ping pong - enough volatility to hit a few of my sells and then drop a little so I can buy 'em back and accumulate MOAR!

XMR looking chipper though, Dotto - I trust you're well, Sir?

Fantastic, Kurious. A bit disconected from crypto this time, waiting for the big tide

Dunno how you make profit on tiny 1% shifts, don't the fees swallow all that?

[starmman]

Loving the ping pong - enough volatility to hit a few of my sells and then drop a little so I can buy 'em back and accumulate MOAR!

XMR looking chipper though, Dotto - I trust you're well, Sir?

Fantastic, Kurious. A bit disconected from crypto this time, waiting for the big tide

Dunno how you make profit on tiny 1% shifts, don't the fees swallow all that?

It'll still be possible to make a profit - but the exchanges percentage of your profits will be much higher. I didn't setup such a trading model yet - but plan to in the future.

[equipoise]

It seems like XMR and BTC will break out at the very same time. How could you prepare if you only have XMR and some cash? I'm still resisting the temptation to sell all the cash for XMR and most probably I'll be sorry for that decision, but still wondering what you guys think about that? 

[jwinterm]

It seems like XMR and BTC will break out at the very same time. How could you prepare if you only have XMR and some cash? I'm still resisting the temptation to sell all the cash for XMR and most probably I'll be sorry for that decision, but still wondering what you guys think about that? 

Apparently GUI is here, if that factors into your decision. From monero-dev on freenode this morning:

[06:17:27] <medusa_> hyc: win x86, x64 are good. os-x is good too
[06:17:32] <hyc> so that means we can finally do a public release?
[06:19:15] <fluffypony> yes
[06:19:24] <hyc> yay
[06:19:47] <fluffypony> we've been able to release for a few days, just been finalising environmental stuff and so on
[06:19:55] <fluffypony> (beta release)

Honestly I think there is going to be some dumping when the actual release is available and announced. Seems like that is always the case for some crypto release that has been built up for a while, and this is like that times one hundred. But, I'm typically wrong, so there's that, too.

[cryptimus prime]

After the GUI is released the XMR price will never be the same again.

The GUI enables a huge interested userbase to start using XMR for real and easy. Ring CT will follow after that and usually we all know that good news never come alone. I hope we get rid of a lot of dumpsters already now and leave them behind watching the price rocket.

[Febo]

GUI release will come with big red sign it is beta and not to store much XMR inside. But the beginning of January will bring added new things and more anonymity.  So I dont expect any drop from any reason at all. But just steady rise.

What i now wait and hope is to see Bitcoin over $800. I am not worried for Monero at all.