[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

guys, i need some advice. i went full in on xmr with fiat in the early days. Should i diversify my xmr in some bitcoin? it does not look a good time to do that cause the xmr/btc ratio keeps dropping... but it looks that btc is falling a bit less hard in fiat value then xmr. Its just hard to believe at this moment we will see a new ATH in monero again in USD...

Count the number of available Monero's and then tell me if you want your share. It really comes down to how long are you going to be able to hold before you need to cash out some? If your over exposed then go for it and change a percentage over but if your in long term then I really don't see a difficult choice between the two.

i am following u and some other guys for quite a while now, always interested in what u guys are saying. U are right , i should have sold some int he 0.03 area just to have some bitcoin, or A bitcoin ... but i did not. I am a believer of monero for 3 years now but its my first big bear market i am really following closely. Because 18 months ago it was peanuts ( in usd value ) ... i am amazed of how sure u are and how much u believe in a new bull market. I cant help thinking that maybe we seen the top already ... even with this amazing comunity , the superiour tech ( that nobody seems to care about ) , the ledger support, the comming bulletproofs, kovri , and so much more , it looks like nobody is carring and if we would enter a bull market , maybe people will just buy more shitcoins

Don't do what I did, I sold my entire stash after 2 years of holding at $1.37 for a real life emergency and figured I could buy back in a month when I had some cash coming in after 6 months of sideways and then out of no where alpha bay hit and it went up 26 times and I was never able to get back my stack. I have been buying every week including at .032 so I'm not cashing out again if I'm on my death bed before 10K !

thx for the advice , and i am pretty comfortable holding my coins. i dont need the money, at least not for real emergencys. I do have some thoughts on what i want to do with it but it can wait. WOW , 10K monero... isnt that a bit to optimistic? what would lead to such a massive price

I figure if Bitcoin can hit 20k then Monero is worth more as far a fundamentals go so eventually that info will be out in the public domain. right now the media is trying to discredit Monero just like they did to bitcoin (saying its a criminal coin). And the sheep of course listen and sell and the wolfs are sitting back and accumulating at these prices. you can easily test this just by trying to place a buy just above the current buy price and you will watch the bots jump up in front of you and continue their wash trading as they try to drive the price down. Once the price rises there will be no weak hands left, there just aren't enough coins. Until then we can accumulate what the miners are dumping and wait. And even though KN is a scumbag place, its still a nation state and if its putting it's eggs in this basket then you know it is gonna be supporting this basket. And no-one can tell me 3 letter agencies are not using this to fund off the books OPs. Easily liquid and transferable private currency will always be needed whether its for criminal activity or just to hold you assets. People build vaults for what monero provides at a much lower cost. The only way I see it not skyrocketing is if there is a flaw that can break it or a better alternative comes along and with the massive amount of Developers and just plain monitors It will be very hard to sneak in anything that will break the chain. There have been quit a few suggestions that have had the chance of sneaking in code that have been called out and then vetted. It is the communities job to monitor the progress as well as support. blind support without verification is moronic and for koolaid drinkers and if there are any of those here they need to go become a Dashtard.

[infofront]

guys, i need some advice. i went full in on xmr with fiat in the early days. Should i diversify my xmr in some bitcoin? it does not look a good time to do that cause the xmr/btc ratio keeps dropping... but it looks that btc is falling a bit less hard in fiat value then xmr. Its just hard to believe at this moment we will see a new ATH in monero again in USD...

Crypto is all high risk, but BTC is probably the lowest risk in the category. You'll have to assess your own risk tolerance, etc.

As generic financial advice, I'd recommend a crypto portfolio that consists of at least 50% BTC.

The Monero cryptocurrency is gradually losing weight, as other coins are falling in value every day, in fact, Monero is no different from others.

Monero has been sliding against BTC, but holding it's own against everything else. In fact, it's gotten back into the CMC top 10 during this crypto winter.

[elrippos friend]

guys, i need some advice. i went full in on xmr with fiat in the early days. Should i diversify my xmr in some bitcoin? it does not look a good time to do that cause the xmr/btc ratio keeps dropping... but it looks that btc is falling a bit less hard in fiat value then xmr. Its just hard to believe at this moment we will see a new ATH in monero again in USD...

Count the number of available Monero's and then tell me if you want your share. It really comes down to how long are you going to be able to hold before you need to cash out some? If your over exposed then go for it and change a percentage over but if your in long term then I really don't see a difficult choice between the two.

i am following u and some other guys for quite a while now, always interested in what u guys are saying. U are right , i should have sold some int he 0.03 area just to have some bitcoin, or A bitcoin ... but i did not. I am a believer of monero for 3 years now but its my first big bear market i am really following closely. Because 18 months ago it was peanuts ( in usd value ) ... i am amazed of how sure u are and how much u believe in a new bull market. I cant help thinking that maybe we seen the top already ... even with this amazing comunity , the superiour tech ( that nobody seems to care about ) , the ledger support, the comming bulletproofs, kovri , and so much more , it looks like nobody is carring and if we would enter a bull market , maybe people will just buy more shitcoins

Don't do what I did, I sold my entire stash after 2 years of holding at $1.37 for a real life emergency and figured I could buy back in a month when I had some cash coming in after 6 months of sideways and then out of no where alpha bay hit and it went up 26 times and I was never able to get back my stack. I have been buying every week including at .032 so I'm not cashing out again if I'm on my death bed before 10K !

thx for the advice , and i am pretty comfortable holding my coins. i dont need the money, at least not for real emergencys. I do have some thoughts on what i want to do with it but it can wait. WOW , 10K monero... isnt that a bit to optimistic? what would lead to such a massive price

I figure if Bitcoin can hit 20k then Monero is worth more as far a fundamentals go so eventually that info will be out in the public domain. right now the media is trying to discredit Monero just like they did to bitcoin (saying its a criminal coin). And the sheep of course listen and sell and the wolfs are sitting back and accumulating at these prices. you can easily test this just by trying to place a buy just above the current buy price and you will watch the bots jump up in front of you and continue their wash trading as they try to drive the price down. Once the price rises there will be no weak hands left, there just aren't enough coins. Until then we can accumulate what the miners are dumping and wait. And even though KN is a scumbag place, its still a nation state and if its putting it's eggs in this basket then you know it is gonna be supporting this basket. And no-one can tell me 3 letter agencies are not using this to fund off the books OPs. Easily liquid and transferable private currency will always be needed whether its for criminal activity or just to hold you assets. People build vaults for what monero provides at a much lower cost. The only way I see it not skyrocketing is if there is a flaw that can break it or a better alternative comes along and with the massive amount of Developers and just plain monitors It will be very hard to sneak in anything that will break the chain. There have been quit a few suggestions that have had the chance of sneaking in code that have been called out and then vetted. It is the communities job to monitor the progress as well as support. blind support without verification is moronic and for koolaid drinkers and if there are any of those here they need to go become a Dashtard.

That's bad to hear, i hope your emergency situation is cleared by now! So you want to get 10k Moneroj? I can help you with one Monero if you like 
And yes, anonymity for assets is the best place to stay, even in front of all eyes where everybody watches, but doesn't know what they are looking at 

Any news from rpietila? Haven't heard form him quite a while now... I hope he is ok and doing fine with his kids and his family!

[smooth]

guys, i need some advice. i went full in on xmr with fiat in the early days. Should i diversify my xmr in some bitcoin? it does not look a good time to do that cause the xmr/btc ratio keeps dropping... but it looks that btc is falling a bit less hard in fiat value then xmr. Its just hard to believe at this moment we will see a new ATH in monero again in USD...

Is this significant money to your life and/or quality of life?

If so I would suggest that you take some off the table and stash it in something a lot less volatile. Whatever you want to do there is up to you. Could be fiat, gold, quality (not speculative) land, really anything.

Yeah, you should have done this eight months ago, but since you did not, don't compound the mistake by refusing to do it now.

This does not mean dumping all your XMR, cryptos, etc. It means exactly what I said. Take some off the table and reduce risk so that you are still in decent shape in case crypto does not work out, or even eventually works out but remains in a painful bear market for far longer than anyone expects or is prepared for.

If this is is not significant money to your life then just carry on with the speculation as you see fit.

My 2c.

[elrippos friend]

guys, i need some advice. i went full in on xmr with fiat in the early days. Should i diversify my xmr in some bitcoin? it does not look a good time to do that cause the xmr/btc ratio keeps dropping... but it looks that btc is falling a bit less hard in fiat value then xmr. Its just hard to believe at this moment we will see a new ATH in monero again in USD...

Is this significant money to your life and/or quality of life?

If so I would suggest that you take some off the table and stash it in something a lot less volatile. Whatever you want to do there is up to you. Could be fiat, gold, quality (not speculative) land, really anything.

Yeah, you should have done this eight months ago, but since you did not, don't compound the mistake by refusing to do it now.

This does not mean dumping all your XMR, cryptos, etc. It means exactly what I said. Take some off the table and reduce risk so that you are still in decent shape in case crypto does not work out, or even eventually works out but remains in a painful bear market for far longer than anyone expects or is prepared for.

If this is is not significant money to your life then just carry on with the speculation as you see fit.

My 2c.

Nice advice, beeing careful and mature, still i would wait for the mid of september, historically this is a month with serious gains 

[smooth]

guys, i need some advice. i went full in on xmr with fiat in the early days. Should i diversify my xmr in some bitcoin? it does not look a good time to do that cause the xmr/btc ratio keeps dropping... but it looks that btc is falling a bit less hard in fiat value then xmr. Its just hard to believe at this moment we will see a new ATH in monero again in USD...

Is this significant money to your life and/or quality of life?

If so I would suggest that you take some off the table and stash it in something a lot less volatile. Whatever you want to do there is up to you. Could be fiat, gold, quality (not speculative) land, really anything.

Yeah, you should have done this eight months ago, but since you did not, don't compound the mistake by refusing to do it now.

This does not mean dumping all your XMR, cryptos, etc. It means exactly what I said. Take some off the table and reduce risk so that you are still in decent shape in case crypto does not work out, or even eventually works out but remains in a painful bear market for far longer than anyone expects or is prepared for.

If this is is not significant money to your life then just carry on with the speculation as you see fit.

My 2c.

Nice advice, beeing careful and mature, still i would wait for the mid of september, historically this is a month with serious gains 

Remember, remember the pump in September

[elrippos friend]

guys, i need some advice. i went full in on xmr with fiat in the early days. Should i diversify my xmr in some bitcoin? it does not look a good time to do that cause the xmr/btc ratio keeps dropping... but it looks that btc is falling a bit less hard in fiat value then xmr. Its just hard to believe at this moment we will see a new ATH in monero again in USD...

Is this significant money to your life and/or quality of life?

If so I would suggest that you take some off the table and stash it in something a lot less volatile. Whatever you want to do there is up to you. Could be fiat, gold, quality (not speculative) land, really anything.

Yeah, you should have done this eight months ago, but since you did not, don't compound the mistake by refusing to do it now.

This does not mean dumping all your XMR, cryptos, etc. It means exactly what I said. Take some off the table and reduce risk so that you are still in decent shape in case crypto does not work out, or even eventually works out but remains in a painful bear market for far longer than anyone expects or is prepared for.

If this is is not significant money to your life then just carry on with the speculation as you see fit.

My 2c.

Nice advice, beeing careful and mature, still i would wait for the mid of september, historically this is a month with serious gains 

Remember, remember the pump in September

Yeeeaaaahhhh, i think we will at least see the 0,05's in the remember season 

[aminorex]

1000 usd xmr looks so far away. Hopefully we get there eventually

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

[rinus]

1000 usd xmr looks so far away. Hopefully we get there eventually

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

When fear is at max, the legend is back . Welcome back aminorex

[7jaka7]

WOW , 10K monero... isnt that a bit to optimistic? what would lead to such a massive price

I think that this is not to optimistic for following reasons:
- we saw that height like this are possible on BTC
- smaller blockchain size then BTC atm (I assume size is growing faster then BTC's, any estimations when this could happen?)
- privacy focused
- good (IMO better then BTC's) community
- smaller supply (is there any estimations when XMR will over come BTC's supply?)
- IMO better HODLers then BTC's (we will see about this in next bull run)
- if you consider privacy I think XMR's utillity value is bigger then BTC's
- cool logo
Would love to be corrected on this reasons!
But of course no one can predict the future. Don't put to much in crypto as one bug/vulnerability can send price to 0.

[JohnSmithGe]

Monero more or less premine [Suspicious link removed]d luck guys

[spirali]

- smaller blockchain size then BTC atm (I assume size is growing faster then BTC's, any estimations when this could happen?)

I assume you are talking about the total of BTC and XMR in circulation? They should be equal in 2040:



Also, note the supply rate will be similar from 2019 to 2027. You can read this very interesting reddit post to get more info: https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/512kwh/useful_for_learning_about_monero_coin_emission/

[Samarkand]

- smaller blockchain size then BTC atm (I assume size is growing faster then BTC's, any estimations when this could happen?)

I assume you are talking about the total of BTC and XMR in circulation? They should be equal in 2040:
...

I think you two guys are talking about two different things.

7jaka7 is talking about the size of the blockchain (= the amount of disk space that you need
if you want to download and verify the Bitcoin / Monero blockchain).
You are talking about the total supply of BTC / XMR.

Monero´s blockchain is indeed growing faster than the BTC blockchain
if we measure the growth of the blockchain size as a percentage.

BTC blockchain growth:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/647523/worldwide-bitcoin-blockchain-size/

Monero blockchain growth:
https://moneroblocks.info/stats

[spirali]

- smaller blockchain size then BTC atm (I assume size is growing faster then BTC's, any estimations when this could happen?)

I assume you are talking about the total of BTC and XMR in circulation? They should be equal in 2040:
...

I think you two guys are talking about two different things.

7jaka7 is talking about the size of the blockchain (= the amount of disk space that you need
if you want to download and verify the Bitcoin / Monero blockchain).
You are talking about the total supply of BTC / XMR.

Monero´s blockchain is indeed growing faster than the BTC blockchain
if we measure the growth of the blockchain size as a percentage.

BTC blockchain growth:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/647523/worldwide-bitcoin-blockchain-size/

Monero blockchain growth:
https://moneroblocks.info/stats

It's what I understood initially but I couldn't see the correlation between the price and the blockchain size. Of course, keeping a smaller blockchain makes it easier to spread more nodes (=> more decentralization) but an XMR transaction weights more than a BTC transaction (explaining why the size of Monero's blockchain is indeed growing faster even with much fewer transactions).

@7jaka7, could you explain why you think the size of blockchain has an influence on the price?

[Hueristic]

- smaller blockchain size then BTC atm (I assume size is growing faster then BTC's, any estimations when this could happen?)

I assume you are talking about the total of BTC and XMR in circulation? They should be equal in 2040:
...

I think you two guys are talking about two different things.

7jaka7 is talking about the size of the blockchain (= the amount of disk space that you need
if you want to download and verify the Bitcoin / Monero blockchain).
You are talking about the total supply of BTC / XMR.

Monero´s blockchain is indeed growing faster than the BTC blockchain
if we measure the growth of the blockchain size as a percentage.

BTC blockchain growth:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/647523/worldwide-bitcoin-blockchain-size/

Monero blockchain growth:
https://moneroblocks.info/stats

https://www.ccn.com/privacy-coin-monero-successfully-completes-first-bulletproofs-audit/
https://bitcoincryptocurrency.com/monero-xmr-bulletproofs/

Just to conclude, there’s no doubt Bulletproofs represents a vital advancement in Monero transactions. The 80% savings, faster verification times and reduced fees is a huge plus. If you are part of those waiting for it, be happy and keep checking!

[PrinceKael]

Apparently Bulletproofs can reduce the average tx from 15kb to something like 1.5kb-3kb which is still slightly larger than Bitcoin's 0.5kb but definitely a significant improvement. Would something like RuffCT/StringCT reduce that even more? I'm also curious if we would be able to prune the blockchain in the future, like Aeon or Boolberry do - although Monero can't use the same method IIRC.

Monero also stores UTXO on-disk with denormalised database indices/LMDB rather than on-memory like Bitcoin, so although their blockchain isn't growing as fast as Monero currently, they will still suffer from a growing UTXO set in time, although hard drive storage is getting cheaper every year and there's always room for more optimisations and off-chain scaling solutions.

I'm not an expert though, so I'd love if someone could chime in and correct me if I'm wrong.

[elrippos friend]

1000 usd xmr looks so far away. Hopefully we get there eventually

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

You are back in the house, so that takes me to a new ATH in a month or less 

[Jason.W]

OK the math is in fellas:

[7jaka7]

- smaller blockchain size then BTC atm (I assume size is growing faster then BTC's, any estimations when this could happen?)

I assume you are talking about the total of BTC and XMR in circulation? They should be equal in 2040:

~snip

Also, note the supply rate will be similar from 2019 to 2027. You can read this very interesting reddit post to get more info: https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/512kwh/useful_for_learning_about_monero_coin_emission/

I was thinking of total supply in the other reason I mentioned:

- smaller supply (is there any estimations when XMR will over come BTC's supply?)

But thanks for all the info. Also interesting link, thanks!

@7jaka7, could you explain why you think the size of blockchain has an influence on the price?

Just for the reasons you mentioned, i.e. if blockchain would take 0,5TB (or more) of disk space I think there would be a lot less nodes which also makes whole blockchain less secure (or not?) and if some kind of attack would happen I believe price would decrease a lot. After all this is what give it it's true value.
P.S. I assumed that XMR transactions takes up more space due to ring signatures. So if there would be same number of transactions on BTC and XMR blockchains Monero's would grow faster.

Thanks for the links @Samarkand

- smaller blockchain size then BTC atm (I assume size is growing faster then BTC's, any estimations when this could happen?)

~snip

~snip

https://www.ccn.com/privacy-coin-monero-successfully-completes-first-bulletproofs-audit/
https://bitcoincryptocurrency.com/monero-xmr-bulletproofs/

Just to conclude, there’s no doubt Bulletproofs represents a vital advancement in Monero transactions. The 80% savings, faster verification times and reduced fees is a huge plus. If you are part of those waiting for it, be happy and keep checking!

I saw this yes. This could actually be a big improvement.

After the new rules, however, this figure will be slashed to as much as around 2.5kB in size for all single-output bulletproofs.

This is still a lot bigger then BTC transaction on average, which is around 0.4kB.

[Hueristic]

After the new rules, however, this figure will be slashed to as much as around 2.5kB in size for all single-output bulletproofs.

This is still a lot bigger then BTC transaction on average, which is around 0.4kB.