The BEST Case sceario would be if price of BTC remains the same
Then the daily revenue would be 1.44/386 = 0.003730570 = 0.0037% daily revenue after 286 days break even point
So the question is which to buy
A) Something that pays itself in 93 days while giving you a 0.055% profit daily immediately and expires after 93? (low risk)
OR
B) Something that gives you 0.37% to 0.25% daily once it pays itself after 286 to 363 days of activation? (Medium Risk)
Damn it I dont know which to choose. Please Vote: A or B?
Thanks
Hi.
Posted first on this thread to try and get some real actual numbers people are receiving with hashnest AntminerS5
I was pleased to see more people looking for the same answers as me!
Like you I really don’t know if I get AntminerS5 or PACMiC. Ideally I would get one of each and see the difference my self.
But I can only afford one now.
PACMiC seems to be the "saver" bet right now. Thanks to you’re calculations I can estimate that after 93 days I should get my invested 1 Bitcoin back plus some profit.
My question is how much profit? Can you provide a number please?
Yes PACMiC is definitely the safer investment and as I calculated earlier, assuming there is no increase in difficulty, the total profit after 93 days would be 0.05149402 BTC and of course you will get the money you spent for the 1000 GH back. Hope that helps
i tried to look at this over and i am not getting the same numbers, how did you get this numbers if i may ask. when i did it i came to a amount that was 29% percent lower than what you had posted. Obiously i want your math to be correct lol but just asking
Perhaps its my fault that I have so many calculations in different posts. here are all of them. Please point out any mistakes. Enjoy:
You can either by a PACMiC V2 or hash from an S2, S3, UMISOO, S4, or S5 which can be found by clicking Hash, then choosing the hash from the version of miner you want. So if you want to buy 1000 GH/s of S5, go to Hash, click S5, go to market and put in a buy order for 1000 GH/S.
Thanks. after comparing, it seems to me, that pacmic has less risk guaranteed roi, while something like s5 is higher risk as it depends on the difficulty and risks becoming unprofitable. right?
Unless if I misunderstand the pacmic revenues:
0.0000000045 *60 * 60 *24 = 0.0003888 the first day
You almost got the PACMiC revenue right, you also have to take it times the remaining principal. So towards the end of the contract, you are earning very little profit.
so at current difficulty, the revenues that go toward the 1 1btc cost of the 1000 GH/s contract with the $0.098 kwh cost, according to coiwarst profitability calc the daily revenue would be 0.01056774 btc that goes toward the 1 btc investment and it would ideally break even in 93 days, if difficulty remains the same
therefore the daily discount rate of investment would be 0.01056774. every month 10.57% is paid towards balance
so the 0.0003888 every month gets decreased by the rate of (10.57%) for 93 day.
since we know the bonus will be paid for 93 [EDIT: days], we can start from the 93rd day and go backwards.
Effectively the the bonuses would be the sum of 0.000388 * (1+ 0.01056774) from day 0 to 93. Therefore using the future value formula:
Future bonuses = 0.000388 * (1+ 0.01056774)^93 = 0.00103137 btc that's 0.103% profit on the
the average daily profit would be 0.00103137 / 93 days = 0.00001109
[EDIT: I must have a mistake here... u can get this amount from faucets
]
[EDIT: OK, the above is wrong in different levels. It should have been 0.000388 * (1+ (1 - 0.01056774)/93)^93 since the bonus keeps getting decreased by .010, but its still wrong because this is assuming a block is found every day. If the pool is supposed to be 5TH then according to coinwars a block is generated every 0.2 days which is 5 times a day.
The correct equation should be: 0.000388 * (1 + 0.01056774)^(5*93) = 0.05149402 for all 93 days. Thats a total of 5.15% in the 93 day contract. Makes more sense.
so the average daily profit is 0.05149402 / 93 days = 0.00055370 BTC/day]
Now the S5 burns 0.51/GH according to hashnet, its 1155 GH are 589.05W and hashnet charges $0.0976/kWh.
Inputting this data on coinwars calculator, with the same exchange rate and difficulty,
the profit per day is $1.44 or 0.00427719 BTC with the current USD 233.7979 exchange rate. so in 93 days the profit from revenues should be 0.39777867 BTC.
It would break even is 268.06 days to generate our invested 1.1465435514, and start generating profit of 0.00427719 daily
all this is however assuming that difficulty and exchange rate doesn't change over time...
If the drop of btc price continues to drop at the same rate it has been, we could take an educated guess on how much is the btc gonna be worth after 286 days:
if todays price is $230/btc according to coinbase, 286 days ago on August 30th, 2014, coinbase price was $504/btc
Thats percentage drop of (504-230)/504 = 0.54365079. Note that the curve is kinda stabilizig, so assuming a continuous straight line drop is being extreme and over-safe (worst case scenario).
so the worst case scenario would be that our break even btcs would need to increase by 0.54365079 more than 1.1465435514
so 1.54365079 * 1.1465435514 = 1.76986286 BTC
and proportionally our break even days would also be 286.06 days * 1.54365079 = 441.58 days
and the daily profits would actually be worth less by (1 - 0.54365079) * 0.00427719 BTC = 0.00195189 BTC
Thats is still much more than the PACMiC V2, but there would but if I am not mistaken, there would be the risk of never breaking even, if the device becomes unprofitable before the 442.58 day worst case scenario...
Unfortunately I still consider myself a newbie and am still not sure how and why the difficulty changes...
Can anyone verify the math? And can anyone make anything out of my results?
You have a ton of information and math in that post, unfortunately I can't take the time to read and understand the whole thing right now, but a cursory glance suggests that your evaluation of the S5 is correct, but I don't think your profit of the PACMiC seems right. For example...
One of my PACMIC's V2 is showing after 5.1 days a profit of .00199889, which is already more than your math worked out to be, so you must have an error in there somewhere.
I also don't think we can accept the premise that the bitcoin price will nearly half in the next 100 days. If that was the case, instead of buying anything, just sell your bitcoin now and take your cash. Price has been very stable for the last couple of months, staying in the 220 to 240 range very consistently. Personally, I believe we have seen the bottom, of course this is up for dispute, but I wouldn't take the bitcoin price into my calculations, anyway, we are concerned with getting more bitcoin than we previously had, not more USD
Difficulty increases are based on the number of blocks found in a period of time. This is usually caused by more or less people mining on the network. The network self corrects to try and always release 2016 blocks every 14 days, which would be 1 block every ten minutes. When blocks start getting found faster or slower than that, then difficulty retargets happen, which make it harder or easier for blocks to be found.
Oh. Thank you for your data. As I edited the post, I figured the previous amount is ridiculously small (u can make more than 1000 satoshi at faucets
), I think I found my error and based on your five day profit, my calculated average daily profit seems right at 0.00055370 BTC/day for a PACMiC contract
Is there a re-invest feature of the PACMiC? If so how does it work? Maybe I can calculate the compound interest.
And you are right about the drop of price. I used it as a worst case scenario but it is an impossible scenario.
So I will calculate another less impossible worst case scenario. That would be if thee price of BTC drops half the rate of what it dropped the past 286 days. (More likely worst case scenario):
worst case estimated drop = 0.5 * .54365079 = 0.271825395
so 1.271825395 * 1.1465435514 = 1.45820321 BTC
and proportionally our break even days would also be 286.06 days * 1.271825395 = 363.8 days
and the daily profits would actually be worth: (1 - 0.271825395) * 0.00427719 BTC = 0.00311454 BTC
0.00311454 BTC * $230 = $0.98/day
ROE after break even would be 0.98/386 = 0.002548 = 0.25 % daily revenue assuming a worst case of 27% currency depreciation and risk of becoming unprofitable before...
The BEST Case sceario would be if price of BTC remains the same
Then the daily revenue would be 1.44/386 = 0.003730570 = 0.0037% daily revenue after 286 days break even point
So the question is which to buy
A) Something that pays itself in 93 days while giving you a 0.055% profit daily immediately and expires after 93? (low risk)
OR
B) Something that gives you 0.37% to 0.25% daily once it pays itself after 286 to 363 days of activation? (Medium Risk)
Damn it I dont know which to choose. Please Vote: A or B?
Thanks
You have a ton of information and math in that post, unfortunately I can't take the time to read and understand the whole thing right now, but a cursory glance suggests that your evaluation of the S5 is correct, but I don't think your profit of the PACMiC seems right. For example...
One of my PACMIC's V2 is showing after 5.1 days a profit of .00199889, which is already more than your math worked out to be, so you must have an error in there somewhere.
I also don't think we can accept the premise that the bitcoin price will nearly half in the next 100 days. If that was the case, instead of buying anything, just sell your bitcoin now and take your cash. Price has been very stable for the last couple of months, staying in the 220 to 240 range very consistently. Personally, I believe we have seen the bottom, of course this is up for dispute, but I wouldn't take the bitcoin price into my calculations, anyway, we are concerned with getting more bitcoin than we previously had, not more USD
Difficulty increases are based on the number of blocks found in a period of time. This is usually caused by more or less people mining on the network. The network self corrects to try and always release 2016 blocks every 14 days, which would be 1 block every ten minutes. When blocks start getting found faster or slower than that, then difficulty retargets happen, which make it harder or easier for blocks to be found.
Oh. Thank you for your data. As I edited the post, I figured the previous amount is ridiculously small (u can make more than 1000 satoshi at faucets
), I think I found my error and based on your five day profit, my calculated average daily profit seems right at 0.00055370 BTC/day for a PACMiC contract
Is there a re-invest feature of the PACMiC? If so how does it work? Maybe I can calculate the compound interest.
And you are right about the drop of price. I used it as a worst case scenario but it is an impossible scenario.
So I will calculate another less impossible worst case scenario. That would be if thee price of BTC drops half the rate of what it dropped the past 286 days. (More likely worst case scenario):
worst case estimated drop = 0.5 * .54365079 = 0.271825395
so 1.271825395 * 1.1465435514 = 1.45820321 BTC
and proportionally our break even days would also be 286.06 days * 1.271825395 = 363.8 days
and the daily profits would actually be worth: (1 - 0.271825395) * 0.00427719 BTC = 0.00311454 BTC
0.00311454 BTC * $230 = $0.98/day
ROE after break even would be 0.98/386 = 0.002548 = 0.25 % daily revenue assuming a worst case of 27% currency depreciation and risk of becoming unprofitable before...
The BEST Case sceario would be if price of BTC remains the same
Then the daily revenue would be 1.44/386 = 0.003730570 = 0.0037% daily revenue after 286 days break even point
So the question is which to buy
A) Something that pays itself in 93 days while giving you a 0.055% profit daily immediately and expires after 93? (low risk)
OR
B) Something that gives you 0.37% to 0.25% daily once it pays itself after 286 to 363 days of activation? (Medium Risk)
Damn it I dont know which to choose. Please Vote: A or B?
Thanks
