So investing a few hundred or perhaps thousands of dollars into a venture which has a decent potential of becoming a similar valuation in a year or so is a pretty amazing opportunity.
I agree with most of this post but regarding that last statement, when have you ever seen an altcoin that's worth more a year after launch than in the first 2 months of launch ? Anything that's ever shown any promise in this market gets its valuation priced in very quickly - within a month or two if not immediately.
After that it's all downhill.
You're lucky if the price is a quarter of it's speculative early priced-in valuation in a year's time so I wouldn't lead people on with that nonsense. Even Bitshares and Counterparty which are currently enjoying top 5 marketcaps after a year have never traded above their early post-launch prices. Peercoin had massive promise that was priced in out of the gate. The first POS coin. It's currently a quarter of it's highest trading values. Counterparty got near its February price a few weeks ago with its mega "Etherium+Bitcoin all you want in 1 package" announcement and even that didn't push above its post-pump price record.
Lets get real for once. These are experimental markets. Developers try out new things then move onto other stuff. They are at the mercy of commercial dynamics over which they have no control. If a new project hasn't established itself in a couple of months of launch - forget it. There's too much other stuff going on.
Oh I totally agree with you on that matter (actually, despite what you or others might think - I agree with numerous aspects). However, that's why I draw many parallels to the dot-com bubble in the late 90s in my posts - and for that matter in my approach to crypto-investments in general. In every coin I've ever invested in I've bought large up front in coins I supported either for technical/developmental reasons (which is why I mined/bought a ton of BC in the beginning, and did the same with DRK, BTM, and XC) or conceptual/social reasons (which is why I did the same with DOGE and now BAY).
Just because there are traders manipulating both emotions and market dynamics for their personal profit - doesn't mean that every coin is a scam and every developer is planning on running away from their project. Nor does it mean that the price can't be 100X as much in 2-3 years as it is today - I
agree however that we're talking about a "1% outside chance" there and it's definitely
not the common or expected result... but it's also not outside the realm of possibility. There are a million scams in every market: insurance, welfare, stock/bond markets, real estate, commodities... for every opportunity that turns into a long-term win, there are 250 that are long-term losers. However, if you wait for undeniable proof of which something is... the price has already risen to the level that the gains are no longer significant.
Basically, I respect your skepticism and doubt - unlike the whining and conspiracy theories of some who prefer making Hitler videos or spending 50 hours per week posting drivel and insults... but less than 5 minutes per month actually attempting to do anything constructive. Although some may cry "FUD" at both - I believe
your concern lies primarily in cautioning ignorant or naive investors from making irrevocable mistakes in this unproven market... and for that I say "keep it up".
On the other hand, regardless of the number of times I'm proven to be overly optimistic in supporting something that turns out badly... the benefits to doing exactly that as far as BTC, PPC, BC, DRK, XC, BTM, etc. - have provided more than enough 'slush profits' to write off losing bets like CLOAK, VTC, VRC, FLT,UTC, etc.
At any rate... keep asking questions - and providing cautionary advice to people. I'm fine with the risks I take - but there can always be an advantage (even to me) in someone pushing the other side as well. Open discourse is the only sure way to succeed as a collective. Cheers.
PS... I still feel
very optimistic about my BAY holdings... and am still acquiring more on the dips. Just for full disclosure.
On the 'ebay discussion' - you guys realize you are arguing about different things, right? Operating expenses != annual revenue. However, I don't think anyone in their right mind believes honestly that this will become the next ebay... or even the next craigslist... but it just
might become 'Etsy.com + DHGate.com + oDesk.com' or something similar. By itself etsy makes over $350M a year in revenue on sales of over $1B! (Yeah I know... surprised the hell out of me too).
