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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1651909 times)
ElectricMucus
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April 11, 2013, 11:48:55 PM
 #21241

To people wondering what is actually happening in this thread:

Suckers trying to convince other suckers to buy back in so that they can dump. The goal is to actually turn this around but they will settle for dumping.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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April 11, 2013, 11:49:59 PM
 #21242

What the hell is suddenly causing all the exchanges to rise?!

I totally missed it because btccharts was down for like 30 minutes before I noticed.
That there wasn't really a fundamental cause for the price to fall so far in the first place?

Seriously, people selling coins at $50 was a bit out there.


I concur. Once the idiots realized they were just being panicky idiots, they started buying again... only problem is, once you've sold at $50, it's a little too late  Grin Grin Grin It'll be a while before they see gains again.

Please stop living in 1 hour timeframes, this is an obvious bull trap. When Gox opens we are going sub $50 for at least 3 days, give or take some wild volatility.

I'm not so sure, the price was going up from $120 before Gox pulled the plug. And the other exchanges are now recovering that the most-panic-y people have sold.

If the other exchanges are back to $120 when Gox opens, it's going up from there IMHO.

What does everyone else think?

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Krabby
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April 11, 2013, 11:51:50 PM
 #21243

What the hell is suddenly causing all the exchanges to rise?!

I totally missed it because btccharts was down for like 30 minutes before I noticed.
That there wasn't really a fundamental cause for the price to fall so far in the first place?

Seriously, people selling coins at $50 was a bit out there.


I concur. Once the idiots realized they were just being panicky idiots, they started buying again... only problem is, once you've sold at $50, it's a little too late  Grin Grin Grin It'll be a while before they see gains again.

Please stop living in 1 hour timeframes, this is an obvious bull trap. When Gox opens we are going sub $50 for at least 3 days, give or take some wild volatility.

I'm not so sure, the price was going up from $120 before Gox pulled the plug. And the other exchanges are now recovering that the most-panic-y people have sold.

If the other exchanges are back to $120 when Gox opens, it's going up from there IMHO.

What does everyone else think?

The manipulator has woken up.
Will be interesting if he does it upwards.
thoughtfan
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April 11, 2013, 11:52:11 PM
 #21244

What the hell is suddenly causing all the exchanges to rise?!

I totally missed it because btccharts was down for like 30 minutes before I noticed.
That there wasn't really a fundamental cause for the price to fall so in the first place?

Edit:  I'll elaborate because I've been pondering this one and would appreciate your thoughts on my analysis/hypothesis/fantasy of what happened and why:

From recollection there was an ask sum of around $16 million USD just prior to the collapse.  Despite this the heavy volume of trading didn't kick in until it first looked like the dip was bottoming out so I'm going to hazard a guess that much of that ask depth (well as much as could be managed given MtGox technical limitations) was removed as the price was plummeting therefore it didn't need much panic or speculative selling to drive the price down pretty low.  There was then an immense amount of buying at the first mini recovery until it became obvious for whatever reasons the bears weren't done yet so once again buyers stepped back and withdrew to watch and see how low it was going to go.  With MtGox as (to date) the main price driver out of action there was no need to rush, no need to be afraid to miss the boat on buying back in and also it probably took some time to reassess how they judge the current market, many for the first time looking at prices over multiple exchanges prior to deciding how to play it.

So a relative few in number with not an enormous amount of money had never seen the market go down and had bought stupid only to lose their nerve as soon as it looked like a serious downturn.  This was exacerbated by a combination of bitcoin-flush speculators who have been waiting for a decent scalping opportunity for some time and the lack of a realistic margin market that could have calmed the waters.  Then there's the whole trading blind thing which I'm guessing meant loads of people have simply stayed out and watched relatively few people take the market a very long way.

I would like this to serve as a lesson to all who come to Bitcoin for the first time in the forthcoming months and for those who were in the MtGox verification queue that the market can fall too and subsequently will be a bit less rash with their purchasing.  This should mean however long it takes before we pass where we were at peak yesterday (I'd be more surprised if it were very slow than very fast) the set of circumstances that led to this are unlikely to happen to the same degree again Smiley

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ElectricMucus
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April 11, 2013, 11:53:23 PM
 #21245

If the other exchanges are back to $120 when Gox opens, it's going up from there IMHO.

What does everyone else think?

Volatility between $150 and $15. (ok not everybody, most people are still in shock)

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
elux
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April 11, 2013, 11:58:05 PM
 #21246

1 hour?
Krabby
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April 11, 2013, 11:59:12 PM
 #21247

1 hour?

1 hour.
I'm starting to see the flaw in the bitcoin conformation time Tongue
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April 12, 2013, 12:01:05 AM
 #21248

1 hour?

1 hour.
I'm starting to see the flaw in the bitcoin conformation time Tongue
shhh, dont tell
adamstgBit
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April 12, 2013, 12:01:11 AM
 #21249

58 mins!

thoughtfan
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April 12, 2013, 12:01:34 AM
 #21250

To people wondering what is actually happening in this thread:

Suckers trying to convince other suckers to buy back in so that they can dump. The goal is to actually turn this around but they will settle for dumping.
I'm glad someone is here being the cynic assuming everybody's motivation for writing anything here is an attempt to manipulate the market for their own game because we all need reminding sometimes that there are always some who will play it sneaky.  However I'm also pleased it's others because although I may lose out from being naiive now and again it's a small price to pay for not going around thinking the worst of everyone all the time Smiley

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April 12, 2013, 12:02:13 AM
 #21251

1 hour?

Unless I'm mistaken 2:00 AM UCT is in two hours?

Is Gox going to allow people to place bids before opening trading or is it going to be a giant free-for-all?


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Kazu
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April 12, 2013, 12:03:03 AM
 #21252

1 hour?

Unless I'm mistaken 2:00 AM UCT is in two hours?

Is Gox going to allow people to place bids before opening trading or is it going to be a giant free-for-all?

This is gox. The answer should be obvious.

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April 12, 2013, 12:03:41 AM
 #21253

1 hour?

Unless I'm mistaken 2:00 AM UCT is in two hours?

Is Gox going to allow people to place bids before opening trading or is it going to be a giant free-for-all?

It's a fight to the death to own the last bit of cheap future. The NYtimes is reporting the Winklevoss twin bought up 1% of all Bitcoin. A Free-for-all would be an understatement. It's going to be the greatest gladiator death match of all internet time.

EDIT: Source: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/04/11/as-big-investors-emerge-bitcoin-gets-ready-for-its-close-up/?hp

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Adrian-x
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April 12, 2013, 12:03:45 AM
 #21254

To people wondering what is actually happening in this thread:

Suckers trying to convince other suckers to buy back in so that they can dump. The goal is to actually turn this around but they will settle for dumping.

That is most other days; today It looks more like rabbit frozen in the headlights.

To paint a metaphor the charts you see are the grass on the side of the road and the rabbits just keeps running down the middle, looking for a break, not knowing whether to keep running or turn off to the right or the left.

I could be wrong.

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chrsjrcj
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April 12, 2013, 12:04:27 AM
 #21255

1 hour?

Unless I'm mistaken 2:00 AM UCT is in two hours?

Is Gox going to allow people to place bids before opening trading or is it going to be a giant free-for-all?

This is gox. The answer should be obvious.

Just market sell/buy everything you can!
thoughtfan
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April 12, 2013, 12:06:29 AM
 #21256

What the hell is suddenly causing all the exchanges to rise?!

I totally missed it because btccharts was down for like 30 minutes before I noticed.
That there wasn't really a fundamental cause for the price to fall so far in the first place?

Seriously, people selling coins at $50 was a bit out there.


I concur. Once the idiots realized they were just being panicky idiots, they started buying again... only problem is, once you've sold at $50, it's a little too late  Grin Grin Grin It'll be a while before they see gains again.

Please stop living in 1 hour timeframes, this is an obvious bull trap. When Gox opens we are going sub $50 for at least 3 days, give or take some wild volatility.

I'm not so sure, the price was going up from $120 before Gox pulled the plug. And the other exchanges are now recovering that the most-panic-y people have sold.

If the other exchanges are back to $120 when Gox opens, it's going up from there IMHO.

What does everyone else think?

I'd be reluctant to assume too much on that front.  $90 to $120 is by normal standards a massive jump to expect to happen in an hour and if it does happen it's not a very solid basis for a bull run.  I have to conclude I have no idea what is going to happen in the next few hours - but I have no plans of going to bed for some time (it being 1am in London)!!

If you have a machine on 24/7 why not have a full Bitcoin client running on it to support the network?
crazy_rabbit
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April 12, 2013, 12:06:54 AM
 #21257

1 hour?

Unless I'm mistaken 2:00 AM UCT is in two hours?

Is Gox going to allow people to place bids before opening trading or is it going to be a giant free-for-all?

This is gox. The answer should be obvious.

Just market sell/buy everything you can!

That is wise advice. I don't care what GOX is saying, Aint no way their computers will be working this time around either.

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TradeFortress
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April 12, 2013, 12:08:26 AM
 #21258

With everyone coming to place their orders at the same time.. I can't see how this can go well.
marcher5877
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April 12, 2013, 12:09:08 AM
 #21259

what happens in 50 min?
adamstgBit
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April 12, 2013, 12:09:15 AM
 #21260

What the hell is suddenly causing all the exchanges to rise?!

I totally missed it because btccharts was down for like 30 minutes before I noticed.
That there wasn't really a fundamental cause for the price to fall so far in the first place?

Seriously, people selling coins at $50 was a bit out there.


I concur. Once the idiots realized they were just being panicky idiots, they started buying again... only problem is, once you've sold at $50, it's a little too late  Grin Grin Grin It'll be a while before they see gains again.

Please stop living in 1 hour timeframes, this is an obvious bull trap. When Gox opens we are going sub $50 for at least 3 days, give or take some wild volatility.
I'd be reluctant to assume too much on that front.  $90 to $120 is by normal standards a massive jump to expect to happen in an hour and if it does happen it's not a very solid basis for a bull run.  I have to conclude I have no idea what is going to happen in the next few hours - but I have no plans of going to bed for some time (it being 1am in London)!!

I'm not so sure, the price was going up from $120 before Gox pulled the plug. And the other exchanges are now recovering that the most-panic-y people have sold.

If the other exchanges are back to $120 when Gox opens, it's going up from there IMHO.

What does everyone else think?

i think we will see 50% swings all night long!

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