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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1651969 times)
TomRado
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April 12, 2013, 12:09:47 AM
 #21261

From recollection there was an ask sum of around $16 million USD just prior to the collapse.  Despite this the heavy volume of trading didn't kick in until it first looked like the dip was bottoming out so I'm going to hazard a guess that much of that ask depth (well as much as could be managed given MtGox technical limitations) was removed as the price was plummeting therefore it didn't need much panic or speculative selling to drive the price down pretty low.  There was then an immense amount of buying at the first mini recovery until it became obvious for whatever reasons the bears weren't done yet so once again buyers stepped back and withdrew to watch and see how low it was going to go.  With MtGox as (to date) the main price driver out of action there was no need to rush, no need to be afraid to miss the boat on buying back in and also it probably took some time to reassess how they judge the current market, many for the first time looking at prices over multiple exchanges prior to deciding how to play it.

What do you do if you want to sell more coins than the market can take at any one time? You put each dollar you got from selling a batch in as a lower bid to let things look solid Wink
If you checked the Volume before the crash it was almost a straight line, linear rise of bid depth with price going lower. Almost to perfect a line for a human to draw.

We see similar things happening at bitcoin24 right now. People putting 100 coin bids in 5 bucks below the price, bids fill in above and once a few coins are sold at the now higher price the wall disappears. Put your tin foil hats on and be prepared, ugly action ahead.

18FoHvM5nfkTyiEC9ScxieMNedh7wwgrG2
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adamstgBit
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April 12, 2013, 12:09:57 AM
 #21262

what happens in 50 min?

49mins

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April 12, 2013, 12:10:14 AM
 #21263

What the hell is suddenly causing all the exchanges to rise?!

I totally missed it because btccharts was down for like 30 minutes before I noticed.
That there wasn't really a fundamental cause for the price to fall so far in the first place?

Seriously, people selling coins at $50 was a bit out there.


I concur. Once the idiots realized they were just being panicky idiots, they started buying again... only problem is, once you've sold at $50, it's a little too late  Grin Grin Grin It'll be a while before they see gains again.

Please stop living in 1 hour timeframes, this is an obvious bull trap. When Gox opens we are going sub $50 for at least 3 days, give or take some wild volatility.
I'd be reluctant to assume too much on that front.  $90 to $120 is by normal standards a massive jump to expect to happen in an hour and if it does happen it's not a very solid basis for a bull run.  I have to conclude I have no idea what is going to happen in the next few hours - but I have no plans of going to bed for some time (it being 1am in London)!!

I'm not so sure, the price was going up from $120 before Gox pulled the plug. And the other exchanges are now recovering that the most-panic-y people have sold.

If the other exchanges are back to $120 when Gox opens, it's going up from there IMHO.

What does everyone else think?

The truth is people panicked because there are a lot of new users who were in for a quick profit and don't think of the long run. The rest of us sold because we thought "Oh crap, it goes down and I will buy in more!".

I went out for beers with $50 buy orders and I come home to find they have been filled. Weak hands to strong hands indeed.

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April 12, 2013, 12:10:38 AM
 #21264

I am leaving some extra cash around just incase we really do go sub $50. To buy more. :-)

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thoughtfan
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April 12, 2013, 12:12:49 AM
 #21265

What the hell is suddenly causing all the exchanges to rise?!

I totally missed it because btccharts was down for like 30 minutes before I noticed.
That there wasn't really a fundamental cause for the price to fall so far in the first place?

Seriously, people selling coins at $50 was a bit out there.


I concur. Once the idiots realized they were just being panicky idiots, they started buying again... only problem is, once you've sold at $50, it's a little too late  Grin Grin Grin It'll be a while before they see gains again.

Please stop living in 1 hour timeframes, this is an obvious bull trap. When Gox opens we are going sub $50 for at least 3 days, give or take some wild volatility.

I'm not so sure, the price was going up from $120 before Gox pulled the plug. And the other exchanges are now recovering that the most-panic-y people have sold.

If the other exchanges are back to $120 when Gox opens, it's going up from there IMHO.

What does everyone else think?
I'd be reluctant to assume too much on that front.  $90 to $120 is by normal standards a massive jump to expect to happen in an hour and if it does happen it's not a very solid basis for a bull run.  I have to conclude I have no idea what is going to happen in the next few hours - but I have no plans of going to bed for some time (it being 1am in London)!!



i think we will see 50% swings all night long!
Add into the mix that the whole time this has been going on I'm guessing the newly expanded MtGox verification team will have been beavering away processing loads and that 2 am utc is 11 am in Japan so we'll have Friday's new fiat hitting the exchange too...

If you have a machine on 24/7 why not have a full Bitcoin client running on it to support the network?
DougTanner
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April 12, 2013, 12:17:02 AM
 #21266

What the hell is suddenly causing all the exchanges to rise?!

I totally missed it because btccharts was down for like 30 minutes before I noticed.
That there wasn't really a fundamental cause for the price to fall so far in the first place?

Seriously, people selling coins at $50 was a bit out there.


I concur. Once the idiots realized they were just being panicky idiots, they started buying again... only problem is, once you've sold at $50, it's a little too late  Grin Grin Grin It'll be a while before they see gains again.

Please stop living in 1 hour timeframes, this is an obvious bull trap. When Gox opens we are going sub $50 for at least 3 days, give or take some wild volatility.
I'd be reluctant to assume too much on that front.  $90 to $120 is by normal standards a massive jump to expect to happen in an hour and if it does happen it's not a very solid basis for a bull run.  I have to conclude I have no idea what is going to happen in the next few hours - but I have no plans of going to bed for some time (it being 1am in London)!!

I'm not so sure, the price was going up from $120 before Gox pulled the plug. And the other exchanges are now recovering that the most-panic-y people have sold.

If the other exchanges are back to $120 when Gox opens, it's going up from there IMHO.

What does everyone else think?

The truth is people panicked because there are a lot of new users who were in for a quick profit and don't think of the long run. The rest of us sold because we thought "Oh crap, it goes down and I will buy in more!".

I went out for beers with $50 buy orders and I come home to find they have been filled. Weak hands to strong hands indeed.

Yeah, I sold at $225/$170. Just filled a $50 buy order myself on Bitstamp earlier.

I was expecting to wait a few months for it to get to that level.

Help pay for my BTCCharts.com subscription: 1DTannerQHQD7qjSmA3abLQaDkVFLnBGma
TsuyokuNaritai
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April 12, 2013, 12:17:19 AM
 #21267


I think you guys are an hour out.

http://time.is/UTC
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20130412T02&p0=1440&msg=MtGox+Trading+Resumes&csz=1

yokosan
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April 12, 2013, 12:18:47 AM
 #21268

Can't believe people are buying right now...

Think about it. The exchanges that are currently open are nothing compared to Gox, but what they are providing right now is a window into the future, what could possibly happen on Gox in a larger scale.

They all went to $50 earlier, can definitely see Gox going following the same pattern, if not lower.
Krabby
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April 12, 2013, 12:19:38 AM
 #21269

Can't believe people are buying right now...

Think about it. The exchanges that are currently open are nothing compared to Gox, but what they are providing right now is a window into the future, what could possibly happen on Gox in a larger scale.

They all went to $50 earlier, can definitely see Gox going following the same pattern, if not lower.

I'm putting my money in this guys hands.
DougTanner
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April 12, 2013, 12:19:58 AM
 #21270

Oh god look at all that cash sitting on Virtex just rearing to go  Shocked


Help pay for my BTCCharts.com subscription: 1DTannerQHQD7qjSmA3abLQaDkVFLnBGma
samson
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April 12, 2013, 12:20:10 AM
 #21271

Well, I'm off to bed and will come back in 6-8 hours when I awake to see how it all turns out.

I'm all in about 600 BTC right now. No USD on the exchange and no sell orders.

Let the chips fall where they may.
EnergyVampire
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April 12, 2013, 12:21:10 AM
 #21272

The suspense .... is killing me!  

ElectricMucus
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April 12, 2013, 12:21:48 AM
 #21273

Well, I'm off to bed and will come back in 6-8 hours when I awake to see how it all turns out.

I'm all in about 600 BTC right now. No USD on the exchange and no sell orders.

Let the chips fall where they may.

riiiight  Wink

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
Krabby
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April 12, 2013, 12:22:01 AM
 #21274

Anyone got plans to short?
foo
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April 12, 2013, 12:22:11 AM
 #21275

Can't believe people are buying right now...

Think about it. The exchanges that are currently open are nothing compared to Gox, but what they are providing right now is a window into the future, what could possibly happen on Gox in a larger scale.

They all went to $50 earlier, can definitely see Gox going following the same pattern, if not lower.

Not if the Winklevoss twins have money on Gox.  Grin

I know this because Tyler knows this.
DougTanner
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April 12, 2013, 12:22:37 AM
 #21276

Can't believe people are buying right now...

Think about it. The exchanges that are currently open are nothing compared to Gox, but what they are providing right now is a window into the future, what could possibly happen on Gox in a larger scale.

They all went to $50 earlier, can definitely see Gox going following the same pattern, if not lower.

One problem with your analysis, all the fiat is on Gox and can't get out, all the BTC did get out and has been depressing prices all afternoon.

Now that all the people who wanted to get out 'at all cost' have, all that's left are strong hands and a whole wack of cash.

Help pay for my BTCCharts.com subscription: 1DTannerQHQD7qjSmA3abLQaDkVFLnBGma
ElectricMucus
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April 12, 2013, 12:24:54 AM
 #21277

Can't believe people are buying right now...

Think about it. The exchanges that are currently open are nothing compared to Gox, but what they are providing right now is a window into the future, what could possibly happen on Gox in a larger scale.

They all went to $50 earlier, can definitely see Gox going following the same pattern, if not lower.

One problem with your analysis, all the fiat is on Gox and can't get out, all the BTC did get out and has been depressing prices all afternoon.

Now that all the people who wanted to get out 'at all cost' have, all that's left are strong hands and a whole wack of cash.

People will reach for their paper wallets this monthweek, mark my words.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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April 12, 2013, 12:25:43 AM
 #21278

Damn if I would know it was a hamster fart that drives down the price next time, I will park some $$ on Gox, too. I'm no afraid of no hamsters, I'm scared of some fundamentals changing that really would threaten my few milli coins.

TsuyokuNaritai
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April 12, 2013, 12:25:49 AM
 #21279

Can't believe people are buying right now...

Think about it. The exchanges that are currently open are nothing compared to Gox, but what they are providing right now is a window into the future, what could possibly happen on Gox in a larger scale.

They all went to $50 earlier, can definitely see Gox going following the same pattern, if not lower.

I'm not saying it won't fall, but this isn't good evidence for it.

When Gox suspended trading, people could easily their bitcoins out to sell at other exchanges, lowering the price on those low volume exchanges. People who wanted to buy cheap coins couldn't get their $ in as easily.

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April 12, 2013, 12:26:54 AM
 #21280

Do you believe, understand, have faith, trust? Or do you not. You're either bitcoin, or your fiat.

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