I agree neucoin is still in development. just like ethereum, it's not just about what is there the first week after launch, or how it's trading short term - it's about what you think it may become. I've said it before and I'll say it again: the only thing that matters is whether or not neucoin can deliver on getting millions of game-playing, viral, social regular consumers to adapt this thing.
Every project is in development. But you can't compare it to Ethereum. I have no idea how it will turn out with ETH but it's a fact that it's a very innovative project, a complete new Cryptocurrency, not just a fork of another one. And I'm not a coder but I'm really sure that there are many Devs out there who would develop in weeks what the Neucoin-Team did in 12 or even 18 months. Maybe you know what they have done to need so much time, but I can't see that.
But I agree, that it would only have potential about huge user-growth. And I see one scenario how Neucoin could have some use. But just as something like a fun-currency, without any focus on value. More like a "thump-up-button" with tips or as virtual-virtual-currency in an online-game or something like that. On a real and free market it's kind of irrelevant, because it's own economic-design is suffocating.
it's all about what will or will not happen over the next year when neucoin starts rolling out on games, facebook, etc. that's what the strategic plan is all about. will they convert a lot of users? will it get viral? will it engage more and more service providers?
I doubt that. But... who knows. Maybe it will find it's niche as tipping-currency or whatever. But without any focus on the price or profit. Because if there will be that huge user-growth we can't know, just speculate about it. Some may be optimistic, I'm pessimistic. But what we know for sure is: >200% inflation for the free market every month because of staking. 100 Mio are on the market, and the total supply is already at:
3,083,031,065
In a few days 83 Mio new Coins just out of staking = 83% inflation for what's currently on the market and sold in the ICO!
Just to see what I mean... hours ago:
Total supply right now: 3,080,934,921
basically - can the foundations distribute the premine in a way that gets neucoins in the hands of millions of users? if they can - it will be huge. if they can't - it won't. but it's way to soon to tell. they haven't even started with the consumer applications yet. at its core, neucoin is basically a ripple/stellar proposition - have a premine and try to distribute coins in a way that encourages participation and growth.
Let's think about that... there are ways to distribute it, that's for sure. But you have to expect that all those Coins they distribute (however they would do that) will reach some day the exchanges. Let's say they tip it over Facebook... it would be only a question of time somebody makes a business-model out of it to collect some of it and dump it. If they would distribute only 50 Mio and somebody would find a way to collect just 5 Mio and dump it, the price would crash. 5 Mio at the current price = 175 BTC.
And what they can't: Distribute as much as they stake. That won't happen. The supply they're holding will grow with compound interest and every serious Investor will fear that. I don't see any reason to trust them. I don't see any reason to trust in their professionality. There were several hacks in Crypto and there were several scams with the strategy to claim being hacked (Sorry, we got hacked. Bye)
But even if nothing like that would happen the next 12 or 24 months... if they distribute it, the supply on the market will stake also with compound interest which means, that the Neu-team stakes their billions but can't bring them on the market, because the supply on the market will increase already with >100% per year... my calculation is about 175%. The 100 Mio on the market right now (and they're holding most of that as well) stake... and in about 8 months there will be 200 Mio just out of that and 6 billion the team will hold and stake it to 8 billion in 12 months.
I'm not sure if everybody understands the problem... and my english is not good enough to explain it more properly. The problem is:
The more they would be successful in distributing the supply, the more will stake with compound interest on the free market --> exponential. That would be more than enough for any theoretical demand. But at the same time they're staking their billions as well... what will they do with that? What would happen is: The market would inflate itself and that would be enough to bring the price down. But they have to inflate it, too. Because:
1) they want to sell it, they want to make money with it.
2) If they would stop with that the distribution would get worse and that will be recognized.
3) The more user-growth there would be, the more the public would recognize all the issues
It's a trap for all. And it's paradox but true: It's also a trap for them... because they won't be able to handle that. Even in best-case and without thinking about lack of trust, lack of professionality, possible fraud or hacks. There is no scenario to handle the inflation.
the other way to do that would have been to have one giant foundation premine ripple/stellar style. premine the entire supply. but then the foundations would remain dominant forever instead of becoming a minority holder in just a couple of years, ultimately holding almost nothing, more like an early incubator than a constant whale forever and ever.
That's wrong. With that design they've chosen they will be dominant forever. It's a very simple calculation: Let's say there will be a time with 3 billion on the free market. Just for a calculation - in one year:
There will be about 8 billion in total (staked out of the existing 3 billion with compound interest).
3 billion on the free market
5 billion the team and their investors will hold
Year 2 and the next 12 month:
3 billion will stake with compound interest and more than double
5 billion will stake with compound interest and more than double
So... if they won't bring their billions to the market any time soon, they'll always hold more and at the same time the market won't run out of supply because of the inflation out of itself and it will be a constant pressure on the price. The interest rate will bring always and ever and in every scenario the value down.
If they would've chosen a much lower price but with a supply of 1 billion... so there would be more distribution, it would also stake with compound interest on the free market, the other 2 billion would stake with compound interest in their wallets... so they couldn't distribute anything more.
If anybody can show me a possible scenario in which this project will survive and hold some value, I'm very eager to hear/read it.
And, just for example: If there would be a normal interest-rate, let's say with 6%, there also would be some problems, but there would be at least some possibility to distribute it. And even if there wouldn't be any interest rate they wouldn't run out of supply any time soon. The price goes down with just 100 Mio (without self-buying it would be already much lower). But there wouldn't be so much time-pressure... and they are under time-pressure.
also, the ripple/stellar way early adopters wouldn't be rewarded, it wouldn't incentivize viral spread, etc. also, the price would have had to start ridiculously low and if successful grow to something ridiculously high. this way, the price is more stable (relatively speaking, so far 15% or so down from presale price), and the growth instead comes in the form of pos. same end result, just different ways of doing it.
I personally think that the high inflation/high rewards with a more (for game playing consumers) understandable price is a better way to go. and will get more viral.
wait and see if they can get millions of users or not. that's what this is all about.
With a constantly dropping price it will be hard to get new users in. If they lift the price up... they'll stake everyday millions they are unable to distribute, so either way... it's a trap for all. They are losing, Investors are losing... there is just one way to make profit: Speculation on the possibility for a short-time-pump because they're holding >99% and are able to pump it. But I doubt that it will happen, because they would have costs in BTC and it would involve some risk for them because experienced Investors will recognize market-manipulation and the (non-existing) distribution and step back.
Really, I thought about that the last days. I like it to analyze things and I don't have the intention to "write it down" just because I'm a bad-boy who would like it to see it fall. In fact I'm waiting for something that could be big, with high intentions and a lot of potential. But this is kind of irrational.
And in my eyes they should explain it... they're still leading people into this, paying for advertising and so on. In my eyes it's dishonest but maybe I'm wrong and they have a strategy for the interest-rate-issue (and some other issues). But they should explain it to the public, including calculations of possible scenarios.
