ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Luke-Jr]

Any estimate for the shares price once the mining starts?

Since all* the shares are owned, that really depends on what price people are willing to sell them to you at...

[Gabit]

 As the mining should get back development costs, BitFountain should be able to come in at prices around 1/3 the GH/s per $ cost BFL are trying to charge and still make a nice profit if my rough calculations are right.

If that is the case, I think I would like some of that action, depending when they would become available. 6 x 60 GH/s sounds about right. Hoping that shareholders get the preferential treatment

Any estimate for the shares price once the mining starts?

I would sell all my 1252 shares for 1btc each. Only to give you an estimate for what price i would go another way than my shares.

Let's say that ASICMINER takes 1/3 of TotalNetworkHashPw and so network total is 26/TH (ASICMINER would have 6TH in this case, and rest of the network 20TH), BTC / day = 3600, so one share would generate 1.095BTC / year (3600/3 * 365 / 400 000) - expenses. Traditional investor would think 10% return of investment / year a very decent profit, it would make a share price of 10,95 BTC / share. As it is risky, lets quadruple it to 40% return, so share price now would be 2,7375 BTC.

Even if this is a very rough estimate, there is still quite large space left for improvement. For example if ASICMINER would take 37.5% of TotalNetworkHashPw and investors would only want 20% return, it would take price to 6,16 BTC / share.

This is just a speculation, the reality will not be seen until we can trade shares again, but I think 1 BTC /share is bit on a cheap side.

edit: and, we have to remember that mining wasn't the only profit generator here.

[lophie]

Don't forget price per BTC  . That is the riskier part. But the most profitable 

[lenny_]

Can we see photos of your ASIC hardware, please.

[samson]

Did any of the IC's work when tested or haven't you got that far along in the project yet ?

[conspirosphere.tk]

I think 1 BTC /share is bit on a cheap side.

Then I would largely compensate all the crapola I bought on the GLBSE. Finally luck found me. 

[kano]

Did any of the IC's work when tested or haven't you got that far along in the project yet ?

... only 2 pages back ...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1431982#msg1431982

[lenny_]

Can we see photos of those "samples" you made? Hello?
No photos and evidence = no trust in your words.

[memvola]

Can we see photos of your ASIC hardware, please.

Can we see photos of those "samples" you made? Hello?
No photos and evidence = no trust in your words.

You already gave the money and the asset isn't being traded. I don't know what you think your trust in them will change at this exact point in time? Easing our thrill shouldn't be their priority anyway. Furthermore, I'm not sure there are assembled boards yet, and pictures of the IC's are already published here.

[DutchBrat]

Can we see photos of those "samples" you made? Hello?
No photos and evidence = no trust in your words.

Scroll back a few pages for photos of the chips...

edit: Sorry see post below for pics in the Blockerupter thread

[lenny_]

Can we see photos of your ASIC hardware, please.

Can we see photos of those "samples" you made? Hello?
No photos and evidence = no trust in your words.

You already gave the money and the asset isn't being traded. I don't know what you think your trust in them will change at this exact point in time? Easing our thrill shouldn't be their priority anyway. Furthermore, I'm not sure there are assembled boards yet, and pictures of the IC's are already published here.

I did not gave them any money and I am not going to do so.
Those pictures of tiny chip hold between 2 fingers - this supposed to be a joke?

[nathanrees19]

I did not gave them any money and I am not going to do so.
Those pictures of tiny chip hold between 2 fingers - this supposed to be a joke?

Yes.

They said they would start an ASIC mining operation - how could that silly little chip help?

[Jutarul]

This is just a speculation, the reality will not be seen until we can trade shares again, but I think 1 BTC /share is bit on a cheap side.

edit: and, we have to remember that mining wasn't the only profit generator here.

I hate to break the speculation bubble, but please be aware that the posted (original) business plan only guaranteed a break-even first for the initial investors at a share price of 0.1BTC/share. After that the business plan is a bit fuzzy. It is up to the discretion of bitfountain, under the consultation of the ASICMINER board members, on how the "surplus" (profit beyond the 0.1BTC/share break even point) will be allocated. Large parts may simply go to a cash fund of the company for future growth and operations.

Thus if you acquire shares at a higher price point you may not be guaranteed break-even through dividend payments. You may however be able to get dividends and sell the shares after a while for a profit.

It all depends on strategic decisions down the road.

[Mausini]

This is just a speculation, the reality will not be seen until we can trade shares again, but I think 1 BTC /share is bit on a cheap side.

edit: and, we have to remember that mining wasn't the only profit generator here.

I hate to break the speculation bubble, but please be aware that the posted (original) business plan only guaranteed a break-even first for the initial investors at a share price of 0.1BTC/share. After that the business plan is a bit fuzzy. It is up to the discretion of bitfountain, under the consultation of the ASICMINER board members, on how the "surplus" (profit beyond the 0.1BTC/share break even point) will be allocated. Large parts may simply go to a cash fund of the company for future growth and operations.

Thus if you acquire shares at a higher price point you may not be guaranteed break-even through dividend payments. You may however be able to get dividends and sell the shares after a while for a profit.

It all depends on strategic decisions down the road.

you dont get it. that doesnt change anything. if you assume they are taking strategic decisions in the best interest of shareholders and bitfountain (which i hope is true), better allocation of profit only results in higher long-term share value. I dont see how this relates to the above speculations.

anyway, if a share is really worth 1 btc, less or even more remains to be seen. as soon as we can trade again, market will show,

[rxw]

This is just a speculation, the reality will not be seen until we can trade shares again, but I think 1 BTC /share is bit on a cheap side.

If you think 1 BTC / share is undervaluing it, then no doubt you would consider the opportunity to buy my shares at 1 BTC each to be a good deal? Let me know and we'll set something up :]

[DutchBrat]

Business plan and Estimated Return The expected starting date of chips
manufacturing is late August to September, 2012. The chips are supposed to be
deployed and start hashing in October to November, 2012.

After the ASIC miner chips are produced and deployed, we will first directly
mine with them, then use part of the revenue to make user-friendlier mining
boards or rigs for sale.

If our chips are successfully produced, all the following businesses will
contribute to the shareholders' return:
  Self-Mining with First Batch of Chips At least 12TH/s in
total, that is equivalent to 30MH/s per share, or 300MH/s per BTC.
  Hashrate/Chip/Board Selling Net profits are
conservatively calculated as $5 per GH/s. That roughly equals to 0.5BTC per
GH/s with the current BTC/USD exchange rate. It means that each time we sell
1TH/s of hashing power in various forms, the net profit per share will be
1.25mBTC, that is, 1.25% of the initial investment.
  Self-Mining after Mass Production Unlimited hashrate in
theory because of the low margin cost. But in reality we have to consider the
cost of management (labor) and place (rent). We believe an expansion to 50TH/s
is not hard to achieve. That pushes the hashrate per share to 155MH/s, or
1.55G/s per BTC.
  Next-Generation Products The plan will be discussed among
board members and approved by shareholders, because it would require keeping
some of the revenues instead of paying them all as dividends. The return of
this stage is difficult to estimate, since in the Bitcoin world everything may
happen and happens even quicklier than imagination. But we personally believe
that much more potential profits wait there.

It does not seem so fuzzy to me.... initially self mining profits will be distributed fully as dividends. Bitfounder will not take dividends until all ASICMINER investors have received 0.10 BTC as dividend, after that Bitfounder and ASICMINER will share all profits 50/50

Part of the profit will be used to push through new batches of chips until the 50TH has been reached.

Then we go on to Next-Gen development...

I agree "some of the revenues" is not clear, but it looks to be far from "most of the revenues", so I would expect en have always expected for them to pay 50% or more of the mining revenue as dividends and only start Next-generation products after the 50TH farm has been fully operational.

Unless of course something changed in the business plan that was not reflected on the forum.

[SebastianJu]

I think 1 BTC /share is bit on a cheap side.

Oo Thats unexpected... i was sure that the shares, if there would be an exchange now, would be traded below 0.2btc.

Did anyone calculate the possible earnings and came to a similar result? I mean now we know that all chips are working and have the info that the hashrate looks like it should and so on. The number of public shares should be written in the thread too (i believe around 140,000) because it didnt change since glbse died. So did someone the math and came to a similar/different result?

[Jutarul]

I agree "some of the revenues" is not clear, but it looks to be far from "most of the revenues"...

some and most are fuzzy terms. And the required money to fund new hardware development or other strategic operations mainly determines the difference between some and most. If ASICMINER is very profitable, "some" may be enough. Just saying...

you dont get it. that doesnt change anything. if you assume they are taking strategic decisions in the best interest of shareholders and bitfountain (which i hope is true), better allocation of profit only results in higher long-term share value.

No. You don't get it. The decision of how much of the above 0.1BTC/share profit will be used to fund future investments is not yours. It's the privilege of the bitfountain leadership. And if it is used for future investments, you're AGAIN exposed to NRE risks, which potentially lowers the value of your share longterm. Thus if you think that unpaid dividends automatically increase the value of the share, you're mistaken. And your condition "better allocation of profit" is a strong assumption, because that is something you usually only know in hindsight.

Anyway - I just wanted to throw in a word of caution. Please go ahead and invest as you please.

[SebastianJu]

@Jutarul... isnt this risk relatively low? I mean the sell of the public shares put a good bunch of money into bitfountain. And i dont have the numbers in mind, i only remember that only a small portion of that money was used till now. So Bitfountain has a good monetary cushion for future investions. Thats because i wonder if the risk is high that much of the mined money will be reinvested instead are paid out as dividend.

If bitfountain starts mining (not only testing) would this graph jump 1/3 higher than normal (more/less)? http://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

[DutchBrat]

I agree "some of the revenues" is not clear, but it looks to be far from "most of the revenues"...

some and most are fuzzy terms. And the required money to fund new hardware development or other strategic operations mainly determines the difference between some and most. If ASICMINER is very profitable, "some" may be enough. Just saying...

I guess the difference between "some" and "most" depends on BFL delivering any time soon. Without BFL machines hashing we will be a much larger portion of the hashrate (even with Avalon and/or bASIC delivering) than after BFL has delivered on all their pre-orders and therefore have more profits to divide/keep within the business.

I also do agree with you that future investments come with a high risk as they might yield zero returns.

First things first: I want to see the hashrate rising as a result of ASICMINER mining