ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Lohoris]

Probably most of you don't agree, But this actually making me a bit sad I am a long term investor and crashes and low prices are a good thing so I could get more shares. This way I would have just to lurk and yawn.

I am a long term div guy 

Me too.
I'm totally no interested in selling shares, I just want to buy, hold, and gather dividends...

[empoweoqwj]

Dudes, current ask at btct is .................. ฿ 4.4

WTF?

I checked two hours ago and it was still 30 shares away from breaking 4.

That's what you get when (a) fireycat answers lots of questions positively and (b) you get media coverage.

Who's going to be the first to say "this is high enough", and start selling lots? 

[BitAddict]

Probably most of you don't agree, But this actually making me a bit sad I am a long term investor and crashes and low prices are a good thing so I could get more shares. This way I would have just to lurk and yawn.

I am a long term div guy  

Me too.
I'm totally no interested in selling shares, I just want to buy, hold, and gather dividends...

Lophie, I was thinking the same when I sold @ 2.5btc... Still waiting  

BTW, now I think this is completely insane. AsicMiner is aproaching to the 2 Million BTC market cap really fast  

We will see a bubble soon, IMO this is imposible to sustain. At this speed we would see the shares @ 10 btc in less than 1 month, lol

EDIT: I'm calling the bubble from 2.5btc. And I was completely wrong  So, don't really listen to me

[elefter]

Probably most of you don't agree, But this actually making me a bit sad I am a long term investor and crashes and low prices are a good thing so I could get more shares. This way I would have just to lurk and yawn.

I am a long term div guy 

Me too.
I'm totally no interested in selling shares, I just want to buy, hold, and gather dividends...

+1

[canth]

Probably most of you don't agree, But this actually making me a bit sad I am a long term investor and crashes and low prices are a good thing so I could get more shares. This way I would have just to lurk and yawn.

I am a long term div guy 

Me too.
I'm totally no interested in selling shares, I just want to buy, hold, and gather dividends...

+1. Luckily with plenty of people that are in it for the long haul, that will limit some of the speculation since we're not willing to dump our shares at the slightest movement, either up or down.

There is certainly a number that I would sell out at, but we haven't reached it yet.

[Smidge]

I guess a few people saw the presentation posted earlier and realized the potential

Let's see if the share price can establish itself over 4.00

[tomywomy]

Even with the price rising to where it has, I think there is tremendous upward potential.  Aside from making bitcoin coming and going - by both mining and selling mining hardware, ASICMINER is positioned to become an extremely important company in the bitcoin economy when mining becomes as much about fees as it does about generating new coins.  

At that point, mining companies will become major financial institutions, ensuring the integrity of the financial system.  The largest miners, of which ASICMINER is almost certain to be one, will be able to make additional fees through guaranteeing certain transactions get processed quickly - perhaps even developing hardware to consolidate many transactions from one business into only one block transaction.  As bitcoin goes mainstream, getting into point-of-sale transaction processing will be a venue for future growth that either ASICMINER or some other enterprising company will make billions of dollars off of.

[runeks]

I just did some statistics on the number of transactions included in ASICMiner blocks, compared to other miners' blocks:

Code:

ASICMiner stats:
	Average transaction count per block: 198.0
	Median transaction count: 132
	Maximum number of transactions in a block: 1323
Other blocks stats:
	Average transaction count per block: 302.3
	Median transaction count: 262
	Maximum number of transactions in a block: 1333

Can anyone explain this? It seems ASICMiner blocks, on average, only contain 65% of the number of transactions that other blocks contain.

Has ASICMiner commented on this?

[nubbins]

I just did some statistics on the number of transactions included in ASICMiner blocks, compared to other miners' blocks:

Code:

ASICMiner stats:
	Average transaction count per block: 198.0
	Median transaction count: 132
	Maximum number of transactions in a block: 1323
Other blocks stats:
	Average transaction count per block: 302.3
	Median transaction count: 262
	Maximum number of transactions in a block: 1333

Can anyone explain this? It seems ASICMiner blocks, on average, only contain 65% of the number of transactions that other blocks contain.

Has ASICMiner commented on this?

Given the talk a few weeks ago about transactions becoming more important as time goes on, I'm curious about this as well.

What time period do these stats cover?

[runeks]

I just did some statistics on the number of transactions included in ASICMiner blocks, compared to other miners' blocks:

Code:

ASICMiner stats:
	Average transaction count per block: 198.0
	Median transaction count: 132
	Maximum number of transactions in a block: 1323
Other blocks stats:
	Average transaction count per block: 302.3
	Median transaction count: 262
	Maximum number of transactions in a block: 1333

Can anyone explain this? It seems ASICMiner blocks, on average, only contain 65% of the number of transactions that other blocks contain.

Has ASICMiner commented on this?

Given the talk a few weeks ago about transactions becoming more important as time goes on, I'm curious about this as well.

What time period do these stats cover?

They cover from the beginning ASICMiner started solo mining, which is from the following block and up to right now. https://blockchain.info/block-index/383941/000000000000010c9335c90f6e1f2d2a9af73ca078d660c98988234309b9dba3

So about the last six weeks.

[blackreplica]

I don't think we are in a bubble yet, but we are getting there if prices keep rising unabated

This is a post I made in the speculation thread in response to some who felt that a dividend of 0.03 on average was reasonable and based price on a constant flow of dividends of that amount. I thought it might be useful to put it here as well:

Don't know if anyone has done this before but based on current 3600 coins mined per day, and 400,000 total AM shares.

If AM controls 20% of the mining share: (0.2 x (3600 x 7))/400000 = 0.0126 dividend per share based on mining revenue

Likewise, for 30% = 0.0189

And 40% = 0.0252 (as I understand AM will not go above 40%)

I think AM can safely hold about 20% of the total hashrate at the very least, on average. So as far as mining goes, one can safely accept that about 0.013-0.018 dividend should be easily maintained

So expecting a total dividend of 0.03 in perpetuity will place a great burden on hardware sales. I am not sure that hardware sales can consistently generate 0.017-0.012 per share, allowing us to have a weekly dividend of 0.03 when added to the mining component.

I'm prepared to be surprised of course but IMO average dividends by AM should be about 0.02-0.025, when seen over the long term...this is my estimate: based on mining revenue accounting for two thirds of the dividend and hardware sales accounting for the remaining third.

Based on that, fair valuation (using approx 25-30% as minimum expected annual yield, and dividends between 0.02-0.025 on average, in perpetuity) will be between:

BTC3.46 (very conservative, 0.02 assumed dividend with 30% yield required)

and

BTC5.2 (very bullish, 0.03 assumed dividend with 25% yield required).

Taking the midpoint of the two puts neutral valuation at about BTC4.3/share. Thats pretty much where we are now and I hope that's where we stay.

I'm comfortable with current pricing levels but not anything higher than 4.5.

I'm not trying to be bearish but rather I think some caution is required for new buyers of this stock

[Rival]

damn shoulda brought more at 2.9 back then 

Soon people may be saying that they should have bought more at 4.0 today.

Looks like the future managed to arrive in less than 24 hours. A week in bitcoin time is a year in world time.

[runeks]

I don't think we are in a bubble yet, but we are getting there if prices keep rising unabated

This is a post I made in the speculation thread. I thought it might be useful to put it here as well:

Don't know if anyone has done this before but based on current 3600 coins mined per day, and 400,000 total AM shares.

If AM controls 20% of the mining share: (0.2 x (3600 x 7))/400000 = 0.0126 dividend per share based on mining revenue

Likewise, for 30% = 0.0189

And 40% = 0.0252 (as I understand AM will not go above 40%)

I think AM can safely hold about 20% of the total hashrate at the very least, on average. So as far as mining goes, one can safely accept that about 0.013-0.018 dividend should be easily maintained

So expecting a total dividend of 0.03 in perpetuity will place a great burden on hardware sales. I am not sure that hardware sales can consistently generate 0.017-0.012 per share, allowing us to have a weekly dividend of 0.03 when added to the mining component.

I'm prepared to be surprised of course but IMO average dividends by AM should be about 0.02-0.025, when seen over the long term...this is my estimate: based on mining revenue accounting for two thirds of the dividend and hardware sales accounting for the remaining third.

Based on that, fair valuation (using approx 25-30% as minimum expected annual yield, and dividends between 0.02-0.025 on average, in perpetuity) will be between:

BTC3.46 (very conservative, 0.02 assumed dividend with 30% yield required)

and

BTC5.2 (very bullish, 0.03 assumed dividend with 25% yield required).

Taking the midpoint of the two puts neutral valuation at about BTC4.3/share. Thats pretty much where we are now and I hope that's where we stay.

I'm comfortable with current pricing levels but not anything higher than 4.5.

I get a feeling that any people in the financial industry would laugh their ass off if they read this thread, saying that less than a 25% p.a. return on ones investment is unacceptable. I mean, the Bitcoin mining industry is risky, but is it that risky?

[TsuyokuNaritai]

This isn't the speculation thread so I won't recopy it, but here was my response in the other thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2618255#msg2618255

[aahzmundus]

Ok new topic of conversation.  I was getting way to excited about share price increases so I went on a walk to think about my investments, how they are changing my life and what to do.  I kept thinking over all the new information that got "Leaked" (do we know if the information was authorized to be released yet?).

One thing that caught my attention...

Q: What would be the physical address of the offshore company be to registered?
Friedcat: It will be on an island where financial freedom is more easily to achieve.

I remember seeing that the seasteading institute has been present at many bitcoin events.

ASICMINER + Seasteading = Profit?

Just a thought... I have no evidence of anything, just a hope that one day my AM shares will buy me a spot on such a place.

[eltopo]

I get a feeling that any people in the financial industry would laugh their ass off if they read this thread, saying that less than a 25% p.a. return on ones investment is unacceptable. I mean, the Bitcoin mining industry is risky, but is it that risky?

Conclusion of this view would be, that the shareprice has to be valued much higher. If a 15% p.a. return would be suggested fair, shareprice has to be 10 btc!

[xaviarlol]

ASICM can probably get away with 15% yielding dividends (which is considered low for BTC investments) because they have a solid history, are absolutely huge in terms of market cap, and have provided stable dividends.

In other words, people are happy to opt for smaller dividend on a much lower risk company.

[runeks]

I just did some statistics on the number of transactions included in ASICMiner blocks, compared to other miners' blocks:

Code:

ASICMiner stats:
	Average transaction count per block: 198.0
	Median transaction count: 132
	Maximum number of transactions in a block: 1323
Other blocks stats:
	Average transaction count per block: 302.3
	Median transaction count: 262
	Maximum number of transactions in a block: 1333

Can anyone explain this? It seems ASICMiner blocks, on average, only contain 65% of the number of transactions that other blocks contain.

Has ASICMiner commented on this?

Given the talk a few weeks ago about transactions becoming more important as time goes on, I'm curious about this as well.

What time period do these stats cover?

They cover from the beginning ASICMiner started solo mining, which is from the following block and up to right now. https://blockchain.info/block-index/383941/000000000000010c9335c90f6e1f2d2a9af73ca078d660c98988234309b9dba3

So about the last six weeks.

Come to think of it, it could just bet that ASICMiner has chosen not to include transactions with a fee less than X, while other miners include low-fee transactions, and even no-fee transactions.

[Eric Muyser]

ASICM can probably get away with 15% yielding dividends (which is considered low for BTC investments) because they have a solid history, are absolutely huge in terms of market cap, and have provided stable dividends.

In other words, people are happy to opt for smaller dividend on a much lower risk company.

I think it'll be at least a few months, when the rest of the ASICs are expected to "catch up," before people trust AM enough for 15% yearly. For now, 4.5-5 is good enough value to hold, and psychological place to hover until it eventually goes to 10 in the long term.

[velacreations]

I think it'll be at least a few months, when the rest of the ASICs are expected to "catch up," before people trust AM enough for 15% yearly. For now, 4.5-5 is good enough value to hold, and psychological place to hover until it eventually goes to 10 in the long term.

that depends a lot on the dividends.  If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably.  Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer.

At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc
At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc
At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc

I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks.