ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[lophie]

So... some of these group buys have public listed payment addresses...  who wants to gather all of those and then use them to help in calculating div estimates?  Canary has 1BywWhaLuHfoK4Hwi2ppPVRSCsxRb91cAS for his most recent and Arklan has 1FhKvN9VB9AhJ3pfsEMa7ZDpuifSh5JXNo.  Who is excited?  This kid right here.

I have seen some prediction of dividends on the 0.04 level. I didn't believe in that until now

10.25 is gonna sell like crazy

Hold your horses Mr. Shill the divs wont go that far. If it did AM would not disperse that much divs in one go.

[1714145903]

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[velacreations]

Hold your horses Mr. Shill the divs wont go that far. If it did AM would not disperse that much divs in one go.

why?  we've been close to that amount, before.

edit:  the highest I remember is ~.038

[Lauda]

Blade pricing - 10.25 btc
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=271054.0

Needs to drop further.

[lophie]

Hold your horses Mr. Shill the divs wont go that far. If it did AM would not disperse that much divs in one go.

why?  we've been close to that amount, before.

edit:  the highest I remember is ~.038

IPO divs?

[lophie]

BTW to any interested party I am selling this [WTS] 7 Direct ASICMINER shares for $2980 Western Union, Xoom or others..

[JimiQ84]

Hold your horses Mr. Shill the divs wont go that far. If it did AM would not disperse that much divs in one go.

why?  we've been close to that amount, before.

edit:  the highest I remember is ~.038

IPO divs?

Not IPO, it was 5th-6th of june. Anyway, friedcat already said that they are trying to pay out as much as possible and let people do with their money what they want. I see no reason for them to hold on the money.

[velacreations]

Hold your horses Mr. Shill the divs wont go that far. If it did AM would not disperse that much divs in one go.

why?  we've been close to that amount, before.

edit:  the highest I remember is ~.038

IPO divs?

Nope, IPO divs were considerably lower.

Here's the highest divs:
5-15-13 - 0.03622410
6-6-13 - 0.03814687
6-12-13 - 0.03628311

.04 is not out of the question, and I see no reason why FC would not pay that at once.

[lophie]

Hold your horses Mr. Shill the divs wont go that far. If it did AM would not disperse that much divs in one go.

why?  we've been close to that amount, before.

edit:  the highest I remember is ~.038

IPO divs?

Nope, IPO divs were considerably lower.

Here's the highest divs:
5-15-13 - 0.03622410
6-6-13 - 0.03814687
6-12-13 - 0.03628311

.04 is not out of the question, and I see no reason why FC would not pay that at once.

Well then I better find my div wallet then..... been a while.... I guess I am buying a new car or something *_*

[Vycid]

The sales of these blades at about 1 BTC/GH/s means that AM's existing 50 TH/s hashrate can be valued at no more than 50,000 BTC...

[Vycid]

The sales of these blades at about 1 BTC/GH/s means that AM's existing 50 TH/s hashrate can be valued at no more than 50,000 BTC...

You're not investing in hardware, it's not a PMB. You're investing in a bunch of people who can deliver.

Doesn't help that everybody and their grandma is launching their own ASIC line in the near future, then. BFL and Avalon have proven to be fuckups, but every time a new company comes to market (KNC, BitFury, HashFast, Cointerra), you're betting that company will fail to take any market share. It's an unenviable position.

[conv3rsion]

The sales of these blades at about 1 BTC/GH/s means that AM's existing 50 TH/s hashrate can be valued at no more than 50,000 BTC...

You're not investing in hardware, it's not a PMB. You're investing in a bunch of people who can deliver.

Doesn't help that everybody and their grandma is launching their own ASIC line in the near future, then. BFL and Avalon have proven to be fuckups, but every time a new company comes to market (KNC, BitFury, HashFast, Cointerra), you're betting that company will fail to take any market share. It's an unenviable position.

So the fuck what? There were 4 companies last year starting to develop asics. One failed completely, and two others still can't ship for shit a year later, regardless of taking in millions of dollars.  By the time some other serious competitors actually do arise (if it happens), AM will be on 2nd or 3rd gen tech and have much more mature infrastructure (resellers, etc).  

[bitfair]

Doesn't help that everybody and their grandma is launching their own ASIC line in the near future, then. BFL and Avalon have proven to be fuckups, but every time a new company comes to market (KNC, BitFury, HashFast, Cointerra), you're betting that company will fail to take any market share. It's an unenviable position.

So the fuck what? There were 4 companies last year starting to develop asics. One failed completely, and two others still can't ship for shit a year later, regardless of taking in millions of dollars.  By the time some other serious competitors actually do arise (if it happens), AM will be on 2nd or 3rd gen tech and have much more mature infrastructure (resellers, etc).  

There is room for more players in the ASIC market. In the end, I expect the production costs to determine "the winner(s)" in the ASIC market, and I think AM can achieve the lower production costs than the competitors: low labor costs, no need for external financing, excellent logistics, proven supply+distribution-chain (and products), established reputation, perfect location, etc.

TLDR; AM has an excellent market position, competitors will need to work their asses off to dislodge FC.

[Vycid]

The sales of these blades at about 1 BTC/GH/s means that AM's existing 50 TH/s hashrate can be valued at no more than 50,000 BTC...

You're not investing in hardware, it's not a PMB. You're investing in a bunch of people who can deliver.

Doesn't help that everybody and their grandma is launching their own ASIC line in the near future, then. BFL and Avalon have proven to be fuckups, but every time a new company comes to market (KNC, BitFury, HashFast, Cointerra), you're betting that company will fail to take any market share. It's an unenviable position.

So the fuck what? There were 4 companies last year starting to develop asics. One failed completely, and two others still can't ship for shit a year later, regardless of taking in millions of dollars.  By the time some other serious competitors actually do arise (if it happens), AM will be on 2nd or 3rd gen tech and have much more mature infrastructure (resellers, etc).  

So the basis of your argument is that ASICMiner is a miracle, and all the other companies are going to go the way of BFL/Avalon?

That's a bold gamble, considering the starting cash that some of these guys are getting (Cointerra, for example, has experienced industry professionals and $1.5M in private equity, not preorders). And the "2nd or 3rd gen tech" argument is silly, since the new startups are going straight for those nodes, they're not starting at gen 1.

The reality is that the barrier to entry for new ASIC companies is quite low. In my opinion, either ASICMiner was a lighting strike, or things are going to turn sour for them.

But hey, I've been saying this since 2.5 BTC a share. I'm wrong so far.

[hammurabi]

So the basis of your argument is that ASICMiner is a miracle, and all the other companies are going to go the way of BFL/Avalon?

That's a bold gamble, considering the starting cash that some of these guys are getting (Cointerra, for example, has experienced industry professionals and $1.5M). And the "2nd or 3rd gen tech" argument is silly, since the new startups are going straight for those nodes, they're not starting at gen 1.

The reality is that the barrier to entry for new ASIC companies is quite low. In my opinion, either ASICMiner was a lighting strike, or things are going to turn sour for them.

But hey, I've been saying this since 2.5 BTC a share. I'm wrong so far.

ASICMiner is ahead to this day and thus in superior position.
But as You say, boo can happen if they fall asleep or slow down.

Currently I don't see any problem since everything is going according to the plan.
Even rise of the competition is anticipated already.

[conv3rsion]

The sales of these blades at about 1 BTC/GH/s means that AM's existing 50 TH/s hashrate can be valued at no more than 50,000 BTC...

You're not investing in hardware, it's not a PMB. You're investing in a bunch of people who can deliver.

Doesn't help that everybody and their grandma is launching their own ASIC line in the near future, then. BFL and Avalon have proven to be fuckups, but every time a new company comes to market (KNC, BitFury, HashFast, Cointerra), you're betting that company will fail to take any market share. It's an unenviable position.

So the fuck what? There were 4 companies last year starting to develop asics. One failed completely, and two others still can't ship for shit a year later, regardless of taking in millions of dollars.  By the time some other serious competitors actually do arise (if it happens), AM will be on 2nd or 3rd gen tech and have much more mature infrastructure (resellers, etc).  

So the basis of your argument is that ASICMiner is a miracle, and all the other companies are going to go the way of BFL/Avalon?

That's a bold gamble, considering the starting cash that some of these guys are getting (Cointerra, for example, has experienced industry professionals and $1.5M in private equity, not preorders). And the "2nd or 3rd gen tech" argument is silly, since the new startups are going straight for those nodes, they're not starting at gen 1.

The reality is that the barrier to entry for new ASIC companies is quite low. In my opinion, either ASICMiner was a lighting strike, or things are going to turn sour for them.

But hey, I've been saying this since 2.5 BTC a share. I'm wrong so far.

The basis of my argument is that you are ignoring the advantages that AM currently has and continues to strengthen because of their current position AND that there have always been a number of competitors who have failed to execute (for whatever reason). Bitfair did a nice job of highlighting some of these advantages.

I'm not saying that AM will maintain their current market share (and I also don't think that their current stock price requires that they do, unless someone else can return better than 30-40% APR for six straight months), but I am saying that the NUMBER of competitors is largely irrelevant.

[Vycid]

So the basis of your argument is that ASICMiner is a miracle, and all the other companies are going to go the way of BFL/Avalon?

That's a bold gamble, considering the starting cash that some of these guys are getting (Cointerra, for example, has experienced industry professionals and $1.5M). And the "2nd or 3rd gen tech" argument is silly, since the new startups are going straight for those nodes, they're not starting at gen 1.

The reality is that the barrier to entry for new ASIC companies is quite low. In my opinion, either ASICMiner was a lighting strike, or things are going to turn sour for them.

But hey, I've been saying this since 2.5 BTC a share. I'm wrong so far.

ASICMiner is ahead to this day and thus in superior position.
But as You say, boo can happen if they fall asleep or slow down.

Currently I don't see any problem since everything is going according to the plan.
Even rise of the competition is anticipated already.

My point is that the concept of a company being "ahead" in market positioning is being misapplied to this situation. Customers have little brand loyalty in the bitcoin miner space - it's all about the best cost to GH/s and power ratio. And the ability to deliver, of course - but that is easy to demonstrate if you've got the hardware.

ASICMiner is developing next-gen 28nm chips - but so are the competition, including people who have much more experience in ASIC design than AM (Cointerra is my bet here). That will effectively erase the lead that AM has built, which is not something that typically happens with established companies. AM has not been around long enough to have any "lead" to speak of.

In Cointerra's case, the fact that they have private equity means that they probably have a real, honest-to-god plan for their supply chain. They haven't already raked in the cash from pre-orders, so the success of their business is completely dependent on shipping units. Their investors knew this and still dumped a very generous amount of cash into their company. Odds are that their angel investors are going to make absolutely sure that they have the resources necessary to succeed.

28nm tech already exists, and is open to these companies for use. AM has undoubtedly gained lessons in design from their last iteration, but Cointerra brings an overwhelming amount of practical experience out the door. Check these bios - seriously.

http://www.cointerra.com/team/

The ASIC market is waking up. My advice: do not assume it will continue to belong to AM. That is a risky bet you will barely profit from winning, and you will greatly suffer from losing.

[conv3rsion]

 And the ability to deliver, of course - but that is easy to demonstrate if you've got the hardware.

And my point is no, its not.


Edit: I'm not saying that a worthy competitor won't emerge. Maybe one will and maybe it will be Cointerra. They state that they will be shipping chips before the end of the year. I'll make a prediction that before that happens, AM posts record dividends and the price rises beyond 5.2 BTC.

[Vycid]

 And the ability to deliver, of course - but that is easy to demonstrate if you've got the hardware.

And my point is no, its not.


Edit: I'm not saying that a worthy competitor won't emerge. Maybe one will and maybe it will be Cointerra. They state that they will be shipping chips before the end of the year. I'll make a prediction that before that happens, AM posts record dividends and the price rises beyond 5.2 BTC.

Perhaps, though it's hard to see where the record dividends will come from as hardware prices crash and AM's share of the hashrate shrinks (http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/).

Remember, also: markets are forward-looking.

[conv3rsion]

Perhaps, though it's hard to see where the record dividends will come from as hardware prices crash and AM's share of the hashrate shrinks (http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/).

Remember, also: markets are forward-looking.

From volume. AM products now have 60-90 day ROI, instead of 6-9 month ROI. They have literally fallen 90% in price and are still very profitable to manufacture. This ROI timeline exists despite the recent massive difficulty increases of the last 2 months.

More importantly, because they ship, they are now literally the only game in town and will be for at least the next 2 months. Blades bring in much higher dividends than USB devices, and AM has maintained high dividends despite not selling blades for the last month.

TLDR; I think they are about to absolutely crush it.

[Vycid]

Perhaps, though it's hard to see where the record dividends will come from as hardware prices crash and AM's share of the hashrate shrinks (http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/).

Remember, also: markets are forward-looking.

From volume. AM products now have 60-90 day ROI, instead of 6-9 month ROI. They have literally fallen 90% in price and are still very profitable to manufacture. This ROI timeline exists despite the recent massive difficulty increases of the last 2 months.

More importantly, because they ship, they are now literally the only game in town and will be for at least the next 2 months. Blades bring in much higher dividends than USB devices, and AM has maintained high dividends despite not selling blades for the last month.

TLDR; I think they are about to absolutely crush it.

Only an idiot would believe that ROI. You're racing an exponential curve. These sales will last a few weeks, at most, and FC would be foolish to push all of the proceeds out the door at once, since the following weeks would look horribly anemic and crash the stock.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

Good calculator that factors in exponential growth (use expert mode): http://www.coinish.com/calc/