ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[wo0x]

I believe in luck, but not in that much. Here is just some infrastructure back in business ...

It's more like the opportunity is gone to trade AM-shares at lower prices

[bobboooiie]

I believe in luck, but not in that much. Here is just some infrastructure back in business ...

It's more like the opportunity is gone to trade AM-shares at lower prices

lets see after we recieve next dividend under 0.01

[wo0x]

Some AM1 shares on Haveluck sold for 2.1BTC ... there will be another chance, for sure

[cw92]

I believe in luck, but not in that much. Here is just some infrastructure back in business ...

It's more like the opportunity is gone to trade AM-shares at lower prices

lets see after we recieve next dividend under 0.01

So between any potential hardware divs from the batch of USB miners and a hashrate that has probably increased significantly you predict the dividend is going down >20%?

[binaryFate]

I believe in luck, but not in that much. Here is just some infrastructure back in business ...

It's more like the opportunity is gone to trade AM-shares at lower prices

lets see after we recieve next dividend under 0.01

So between any potential hardware divs from the batch of USB miners and a hashrate that has probably increased significantly you predict the dividend is going down >20%?

If hardware divs is retained for further investment... only mining part remains. The increase is recent, so a large part of the week will have been done with low hash rate. You can see an estimation here (bottom of the page):
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
Since it extrapolates the past hash rate, it will be higher than that (due to current increase), but it might be around 0.01, or like last week, 0.012.

[velacreations]

So between any potential hardware divs from the batch of USB miners and a hashrate that has probably increased significantly you predict the dividend is going down >20%?

1. hash rate has been down all week, so don't expect any new revenue from that.  We'll be lucky if we generate the same amount as last week.  It's been around 4-6% since last week.

2. I've seen the 6-12 hours hash rate estimate over 100 TH/s before.  That doesn't mean the hash rate is increasing.  Until we see 24+ estimates increasing, I think it's foolish to assume hash rate is increasing.

3. I don't think we'll see a big increase in hardware sales.  The new USBs are cute, but the prices haven't really changed (that I can see), so don't expect a flood of new sales.  And even if that does happen, you won't see the money until next week.

tl;dr - dividends are going to be low again this week.

[binaryFate]

2. I've seen the 6-12 hours hash rate estimate over 100 TH/s before.  That doesn't mean the hash rate is increasing.  Until we see 24+ estimates increasing, I think it's foolish to assume hash rate is increasing.

vela, I bet we'll see the 24h average being over 80TH/s during the next 48h.

[cw92]

Just to clarify I don't expect a meaningful increase in dividends, but I still think a drop below .01 is unlikely even with the difficulty increase.  

[binaryFate]

vela, I bet we'll see the 24h average being over 80TH/s during the next 48h.

How much are you willing to bet?

Also, guys, there is a speculation thread.


Anyway, we're very likely to have a low dividend again.

Based on data here:
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it?

EDIT: 1/2h later, nobody took it... I withdraw my offer.
EDIT2: somebody just took it, didn't see that before. So the offer still holds.

[velacreations]

Based on data here:
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it?

why would you base anything on the 6 hour hash rate?  

Even the 12 hour estimate is not up to the rate we hit last week.

[binaryFate]

Based on data here:
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it?

why would you base anything on the 6 hour hash rate?  

Even the 12 hour estimate is not up to the rate we hit last week.

Because I don't believe in a glitch that would last several days and halve the hash rate as we have seen. I believe that some important work was done there. The time also fits perfectly a much needed extension to catch up with increasing difficulty, and with the arrival of the new blades in the last 2 weeks. So I just think (and hope!) that AM extended its hash rate. It's not because we got use to 60TH/s that they will never change that!  

[velacreations]

This is from Aug 20, 2013.  Notice the 6 hour estimate.  Notice that after the 20th, we never exceeded 60 TH/s.

You can't base anything on the 6 hour estimate.

[binaryFate]

vela, sure, I don't mean to be affirmative here. These are obviously just assumptions...
Let's see in the next 2 days!

[velacreations]

Because I don't believe in a glitch that would last several days and halve the hash rate as we have seen. I believe that some important work was done there. The time also fits perfectly a much needed extension to catch up with increasing difficulty, and with the arrival of the new blades in the last 2 weeks. So I just think (and hope!) that AM extended its hash rate. It's not because we got use to 60TH/s that they will never change that!  

Well, you know, last week, we saw the exact same thing.  The hash rate went from 11-12% down to 4-6% for a few days, and then went back up to where we were before (or slightly higher) to 60 TH/s (even though the 6 hour rate said over 100 TH/s at one time).

FC came out and said they had a variety of problems, but they were addressing them.  Right after that, we see another hash rate dip down to 3-4%.

Why would you assume it is different this time?  I hope AM increases its hash rate, too, but I think it's a mistake to assume it has increased before it actually has.  That just creates disappointment based on false estimates.

[supert]

I eased off because I was starting to annoy rather than inform. Everyone had heard my arguments already.

Just un-ignored.

[binaryFate]

Why would you assume it is different this time?

Because an extension is needed to catch up with the diff. We know it will come, as time passes, the likelihood that they deploy it increases.

I hope AM increases its hash rate, too, but I think it's a mistake to assume it has increased before it actually has.  That just creates disappointment based on false estimates.

Might be a mistake, but again, these are just assumptions.
Not sure about the disappointment, we're grown adults, nobody should based their investment decisions on few forum posts. (Writing this, I try to convince myself too, lol)

[runeks]

vela, I bet we'll see the 24h average being over 80TH/s during the next 48h.

How much are you willing to bet?

Also, guys, there is a speculation thread.


Anyway, we're very likely to have a low dividend again.

Based on data here:
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it?

I'll take your bet.

But first I'd need to know how SmiGueL calculates the hashrate on that site.

I know how I do it on my site, and it's really simple: (2³² * <difficulty>) / (3600*24 / <AM_blocks_per_24h>)

Which currently is: (2³² * 65,750,060.1) / (3600*24 / 14) = 4.575834502×10¹³ = 45.76 TH/s

If we use the data from my site you're on! And of course my data is verifiable: If you can find more blocks than I claim, that have the "Mined By ASICMiner" signature in the coinbase you know I'm leaving some blocks out.

[binaryFate]

vela, I bet we'll see the 24h average being over 80TH/s during the next 48h.

How much are you willing to bet?

Also, guys, there is a speculation thread.


Anyway, we're very likely to have a low dividend again.

Based on data here:
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it?

I'll take your bet.

But first I'd need to know how SmiGueL calculates the hashrate on that site.

I know how I do it on my site, and it's really simple: (2³² * <difficulty>) / (3600*24 / <AM_blocks_per_24h>)

Which currently is: (2³² * 65,750,060.1) / (3600*24 / 14) = 4.575834502×10¹³ = 45.76 TH/s

If we use the data from my site you're on! And of course my data is verifiable: If you can find more blocks than I claim, that have the "Mined By ASICMiner" signature in the coinbase you know I'm leaving some blocks out.

runeks: ok deal!

[SmiGueL]

But first I'd need to know how SmiGueL calculates the hashrate on that site.

I know how I do it on my site, and it's really simple: (2³² * <difficulty>) / (3600*24 / <AM_blocks_per_24h>)

Which currently is: (2³² * 65,750,060.1) / (3600*24 / 14) = 4.575834502×10¹³ = 45.76 TH/s

If we use the data from my site you're on! And of course my data is verifiable: If you can find more blocks than I claim, that have the "Mined By ASICMiner" signature in the coinbase you know I'm leaving some blocks out.

45.76TH/s it is. (and was)



I'm pretty sure the calculation is the same.


But to verify it afterwards: If more than 24 blocks have been found in a timeframe of 24h, then the average hashrate is > 80 TH/s.
_{*With current difficulty, which I'm pretty sure of that it won't change in the next 48h.}

[deltanine]

I think this - 1N8oFn2BgF5Rxysf5xDdgsAVmZ2cvzCKQo - is first franchise address

EDIT: although it looks like hardware selling address, but then I don't understand why proceeds go to main mining address

This may be a nexus address for franchisee coin.  I see payments incoming from several different addresses.

It's been up since 6/30 so the time frame seems about right.