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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3901575 times)
ninjarobot
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September 24, 2013, 10:25:10 AM
 #13281

• We made an order of another brand of power chips which are about two weeks late. In October this will provide another 500TH/s (Gen1).
• If any deal of ordering Gen1 chips from outside buyers via us is reached, additional orders will be made.
• The size of the Gen2 order will be decided as appropriate, according to the network difficulty when it is time to finalize the order size.

Anyway, this is pretty much underwhelming. Probably gonna see a quick pop upward in the exchanges, until people realize that FC hasn't even negotiated a Gen 2 order size yet, and that AM is going to war with 500GH of 1st gen hardware (which is 2 weeks late™).

I agree. Looks like AM lost their head start and is still fully focused on 130nm Gen1 hardware. That is not going to be a viable long-term strategy. Even the Gen2 products @55nm are going to be more like Gen1.5 when compared to the 28nm chips coming online in bulk from various vendors in Q4. Too little too late.
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empoweoqwj
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September 24, 2013, 10:28:53 AM
 #13282

• We made an order of another brand of power chips which are about two weeks late. In October this will provide another 500TH/s (Gen1).
• If any deal of ordering Gen1 chips from outside buyers via us is reached, additional orders will be made.
• The size of the Gen2 order will be decided as appropriate, according to the network difficulty when it is time to finalize the order size.

Anyway, this is pretty much underwhelming. Probably gonna see a quick pop upward in the exchanges, until people realize that FC hasn't even negotiated a Gen 2 order size yet, and that AM is going to war with 500GH of 1st gen hardware (which is 2 weeks late™).

I agree. Looks like AM lost their head start and is still fully focused on 130nm Gen1 hardware. That is not going to be a viable long-term strategy. Even the Gen2 products @55nm are going to be more like Gen1.5 when compared to the 28nm chips coming online in bulk from various vendors in Q4. Too little too late.

That has what has always baffled me from day 1 when FC announced Gen2 would happen Nov/Dec. I should have sold then ;-)

 The huge delay in moving from Gen1 to Gen2, even when they were rolling in bitcoins to invest in the move. There must have been things holding them back, perhaps lack of expertise in China? Who knows.

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September 24, 2013, 10:36:05 AM
 #13283

That has what has always baffled me from day 1 when FC announced Gen2 would happen Nov/Dec. I should have sold then ;-)

Same here, although at the time I was still buying into to the notion that Friedcat would underpromise and overdeliver. Now it seems that will be underpromise and underdeliver... The current divs are still decent though, but I wonder how long that will last without AM making the leap beyond Gen1 soon. And with soon, I mean yesterday.
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September 24, 2013, 10:43:20 AM
 #13284

3. The board is in discussions to create content and designs for an official website.

THE END OF AN ERA
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September 24, 2013, 11:06:22 AM
 #13285

500 TH = 1,5M of chips = 46875 blades
If one blade is produced in 1 minute that means over a month of instant (24/7) production. No one will buy those blades in December. There will be 10 times more efficient equipment already.
500TH will be ready on October not December, according to friedcat's update. Moreover, you've probably under estimated the speed of one product line (a product may takes 10s of minutes to be assembled, but to stay in a position for 1 minute is pretty slow and not likely happen in modern product line), let alone it's totally possible multiple product lines will be used.


yes, but point remains. why would anyone buy 130 nm equipment now?

Depends on bitcoin per hash not what tech


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Strange Vlad
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September 24, 2013, 11:10:40 AM
Last edit: September 24, 2013, 11:29:05 AM by Strange Vlad
 #13286

@ tarmi, empoweoqwj, ninjarobot
Guys, you are so wrong...
Look, did you remember last time we discussed blade production costs?
(actually that's a recurring topic, like many in this thread; I guess today is just the time for yet another iteration)

So we concluded that the mass production costs for a blade should be like around $20.  That's a reasonable price if you compare it to consumer products of similar complexity (like graphics cards).  Remember it's China and Friedcat's prices are likely very close to the lowest available anywhere in the world, at least now that the volume became so high.  Okay, let's be very pessimistic and assume a ceiling of 30$, that's around 0.25BTC by current prices, and with a reasonable profit margin it would still be more than acceptable for them to sell the blades for less than 0.5BTC.  Now please reconsider if people would buy these blades in November, if they sell for 0.5BTC!  I bet they would even in December, even if most the competitors actually deliver in time with their currently announced prices.

Also note that most competitors are less likely to have production costs as low as Friedcat (you know, Chinese are very social people; the "connections" are very valuable for them so a foreigner cannot get as good deal as a local).

Also note that 55nm chip of the same die area is much more expensive than 130 nm chip.  Of course, it's still cheaper per Gigahash, but not as much as per more powerful and efficient.  Let's say, if the 55nm chip is 8x as powerful as 130nm, then it's likely about twice as expensive per chip, so only 4x as cheap per GH.

So don't underestimate the good old 130nm, it will last at least until the end of the year.
(EDITED: "at least")

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ThickAsThieves
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September 24, 2013, 11:13:16 AM
 #13287

@ tarmi, empoweoqwj, ninjarobot
Guys, you are so wrong...
Look, did you remember last time we discussed blade production costs?
(actually that's a recurring topic, like many in this thread; I guess today is just the time for yet another iteration)

So we concluded that the mass production costs for a blade should be like around $20.  That's a reasonable price if you compare it to consumer products of similar complexity (like graphics cards).  Remember it's China and Friedcat's prices are likely very close to the lowest available anywhere in the world, at least now that the volume became so high.  Okay, let's be very pessimistic and assume a ceiling of 30$, that's around 0.25BTC by current prices, and with a reasonable profit margin it would still be more than acceptable for them to sell the blades for less than 0.5BTC.  Now please reconsider if people would buy these blades in November, if they sell for 0.5BTC!  I bet they would even in December, even if most the competitors actually deliver in time with their currently announced prices.

Also note that most competitors are less likely to have production costs as low as Friedcat (you know, Chinese are very social people; the "connections" are very valuable for them so a foreigner cannot get as good deal as a local).

Also note that 55nm chip of the same die area is much more expensive than 130 nm chip.  Of course, it's still cheaper per Gigahash, but not as much as per more powerful and efficient.  Let's say, if the 55nm chip is 8x as powerful as 130nm, then it's likely about twice as expensive per chip, so only 4x as cheap per GH.

So don't underestimate the good old 130nm, it will last until the end of the year.

It will last longer than the end of the year, particularly when you consider franchising and self-farming as additional options to sales.
bitfair
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September 24, 2013, 11:27:22 AM
 #13288

• We made an order of another brand of power chips which are about two weeks late. In October this will provide another 500TH/s (Gen1).
• If any deal of ordering Gen1 chips from outside buyers via us is reached, additional orders will be made.
• The size of the Gen2 order will be decided as appropriate, according to the network difficulty when it is time to finalize the order size.

Anyway, this is pretty much underwhelming. Probably gonna see a quick pop upward in the exchanges, until people realize that FC hasn't even negotiated a Gen 2 order size yet, and that AM is going to war with 500GH of 1st gen hardware (which is 2 weeks late™).

I agree. Looks like AM lost their head start and is still fully focused on 130nm Gen1 hardware. That is not going to be a viable long-term strategy. Even the Gen2 products @55nm are going to be more like Gen1.5 when compared to the 28nm chips coming online in bulk from various vendors in Q4. Too little too late.

The current generation of chips are profitable to run until the network hash rate reaches around 30 PH/s. It definitely makes sense to pump out more hardware while working on the next generation, especially considering that the franchising plan means that the operator doesn't bear this risk.
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September 24, 2013, 11:28:17 AM
 #13289

It will last longer than the end of the year, particularly when you consider franchising and self-farming as additional options to sales.

Yeah, I meant to write "at least until the end of the year", but it kinda slipped out...

Do not try and bend the spoon. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. There is no spoon. Then you'll see, that it is not the spoon that bends, it is only yourself.
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joele
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September 24, 2013, 11:39:43 AM
 #13290

For 500T this October, that is around BTC1,321 / daily mining profit.
So AM share price today is bargain.
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September 24, 2013, 11:44:27 AM
 #13291

For 500T this October, that is around BTC1,321 / daily mining profit.
So AM share price today is bargain.

yeah, any price under 2-2.5 BTC a piece is a bargain...
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September 24, 2013, 11:45:46 AM
 #13292

"in 2 weeks" Cool
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September 24, 2013, 11:48:35 AM
 #13293

"in 2 weeks" Cool

that's exactly what's not gonna happen with AM. It is happening and will happen with the competitors (BFL and other vaporware preorders) but when friedcat says it's in October, it's in October.
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September 24, 2013, 12:10:57 PM
 #13294

"in 2 weeks" Cool

that's exactly what's not gonna happen with AM. It is happening and will happen with the competitors (BFL and other vaporware preorders) but when friedcat says it's in October, it's in October.

Didn't he initially say it's in September? So it's "two weeks" late.   Wink

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physalis
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September 24, 2013, 12:18:53 PM
 #13295

"in 2 weeks" Cool

that's exactly what's not gonna happen with AM. It is happening and will happen with the competitors (BFL and other vaporware preorders) but when friedcat says it's in October, it's in October.
+1

Didn't he initially say it's in September? So it's "two weeks" late.   Wink

Did he? Where?

You guys are aware though that when he says we'll get 500TH, that doesn't mean 500TH will be mining for AM? Most of it will likely be sold. Like most of the previous 200TH has been.
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September 24, 2013, 12:19:12 PM
 #13296

Didn't he initially say it's in September? So it's "two weeks" late.   Wink

give the guy a break Smiley
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September 24, 2013, 12:26:24 PM
 #13297

Project Timeline

August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.

I believe this refers to bolded part. Now it has been specified to be done in october.
ThickAsThieves
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September 24, 2013, 12:28:38 PM
 #13298

Project Timeline

August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.

I believe this refers to bolded part. Now it has been specified to be done in october.

The sales have been happening all through that period, the 500TH info is merely saying that supply will be increasing. Note that blades are, and have been, available and selling.
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September 24, 2013, 12:33:24 PM
 #13299

Project Timeline

August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.

I believe this refers to bolded part. Now it has been specified to be done in october.

The sales have been happening all through that period, the 500TH info is merely saying that supply will be increasing. Note that blades are, and have been, available and selling.

I thought that was from 200TH/s batch. And now we are talking about final gen1 batch - 1000TH/s. But maybe first half of this batch has been completed, hence 500TH/s is still pending.
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September 24, 2013, 12:36:19 PM
 #13300

I thought that was from 200TH/s batch. And now we are talking about final gen1 batch - 1000TH/s. But maybe first half of this batch has been completed, hence 500TH/s is still pending.

as far as I know there was 12 Thash, then 50 Thash, then 200 Thash and then there was supposed to be 1000 Thash. So I guess the 500 is part of the planned 1000 Thash. Correct me if I'm wrong please
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