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1421  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 14, 2021, 02:58:52 PM
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1360276917992230919?s=20

Btw what the F*** is happened with this guy.

Always respected him a lot, changing at the moment though.

Someone must have gotten to him. Or he has lost his mind.

If he bought BTC thinking it would make a great stable "currency", then he is truly a fkn idiot.

1422  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 14, 2021, 02:23:15 PM
Exactly this.  Blockchains applications which are not currencies are worthless because any extraneous data added to the blockchain can be fake.  Only currencies do not require anything to be added.  

Not necessarily worthless. You can add a fake piece of information, but it's timestamped. What matters more, it forces you to fake later info related to the first fake piece. You can't go back and fix the logs after the fact. This can be valuable even if the info itself could be fake.


if the "honesty" of the data cannot be enforced, what good is it to have fake data, that can´t be altered? and also: who is saying that time stamped data cannot be altered anyway? if it is a public blockchain, a 51% attack is always theoretically possible, making the entire endeavor useless from the get go. then better use a private blockchain? well, that is even worse, now you have created an extra slow and inefficient database with no better security than any other shared database.

there is a reason why it took satoshi nakamoto only 3 months between publishing a concept paper (white-paper) and rolling out the functioning public blockchain called bitcoin and for the next 13 years no one was able to come up with any other "blockchain product" (except for the all useless copy cats called shitcoins, which none are truly decentralized)
the entire Blockchain-not bitcoin narrative did not get a single use case identified, despite billions of dollars invested and years of research.

bitcointechnology is a one trick pony. blockchain is not a technology, it is a buzzword. imagine astronauts discovering some living creature on mars. it lives. the want to know what makes it "work" . if those astronauts were "blockchain-not bitcoin" dudes, they would identify some part of it as being the most important and cut it out. the creature dies and they wonder why. they think that "living" is a function of the part they cut out. but "living" is an emergent property of the entire organism that went through its evolution cycle. it is not a mere function of any identifiable part, that can be used without the rest of the creatures body.

we should discuss this topic down to the teeth. it is 2021 and this is a bitcoin elite grade forum. if we cant get it sorted no one ever will.
 Cheesy


I remember years ago, anytime someone showed up on this thread shilling shitcoins or blockchain-only tech, I challenged them to debate about it. To go down the rabbit hole of rational, logical thought in order to unpack why "blockchain not bitcoin" will never, ever work. None would even try. It's like they want to remain happily ignorant and stupid about it. (Either that or they secretly know the truth).

And the media, they want the public to remain haplessly stupid about it too, not even quite at the Mt. Stupid level of knowledge. That way the media can continue selling the narrative of shitcoins/blockchain, and the haplessly stupid will continue to buy their shit tokens and fund their silly projects that will go nowhere.

It's all been a massive, global, media-fueled social engineering campaign to steer the dumb masses away from Bitcoin. And by all accounts, it has worked for over a decade.
1423  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 14, 2021, 01:46:27 AM
Without bitcoin there is no crypto, no digital currency and no use case of blockchain technology.

To be fair, I think a few use cases for blockchain technology exist - like cryptographically reliable timestamping of certain transactions. The shipment industry could be an example, or the stock market and the clearinghouses behind the curtains, where strict timing and prioritization of trades could be made transparent. The only important property is that you can't touch a past block without invalidating later ones.

However, such an unwieldy, inefficient, slow thing as a non-permissioned, fully distributed blockchain, with PoW, ...well, then of course there would be no need. Except for bitcoin  Wink

the problem is that the only thing that is unforgeable is the transaction history of the used decentralized token. the only thing that a bitcoin protocol can guarantee AND enforce is the genuineness of the token.  it cannot enforce anything outside of the protocol. they are called token because all they can do is represent.  the tokens can not be attached to any thing in the physical world. supply chains or transport chains cannot be trusted only because some software is used. a bad actor can always just betray the system, the software cannot enforce anything. the bitcoin protocol can enforce the the rules that make a bitcoin a bitcoin. this is a closed system. since it represents money (which is an abstract concept, that is why has so far reaching consequences) we get a money that is not forgeable, cannot be censored, etc, etc.  the bitcoin protocol could not represent a container or an egg to make it a "honest" egg or container.

Yep...I think of all the millions of $$$ paid by corporations all over the world to so-called "Blockchain consultants", and after 4-6 months of going round and round internally with them of how said corp could possibly "leverage blockchain", the reality sinks in as they come to this exact conclusion.

And then suddenly they realize all the money they wasted on this crap, as they sunset the Blockchain pilot project.  Cheesy
1424  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2021, 08:02:39 PM
Any conspiracy theorists here?

Why would both India (expected) and Nigeria (unexpected) suddenly lurched toward banning or limiting all cryptocurrencies?
These two countries have quite a few people, lol.

My conspiratorial explanation is that as WS is getting into bitcoin, it does not want competition for the precious corn.
Nigerians were quite into bitcoin, I hear.

Say, a few massive wealth managers quietly talk to IMF or whatever other Central central bank there is, the IMF 'people' whisper something into India and Nigeria regulator's ears and voila-new policies are being enacted and competition to buy corn is lessened. US based hedgies/wealthies probably figured... less for them, more for us.

This all is just a product of my wild imagination, of course.


The only thing I can think of, is that the Govt/CB of those respective countries know that their people can go crazy viral with financial PnDs, especially with such corruption amongst their wealthy elite that may want to FOMO drive such frenzies. So this may be an effort to curb that public enthusiasm for a while. (And allow the wealthy elite there time to take up Bitcoin positions, of course). I doubt it would last though.

It's not unlike what the Chinese govt/ PBC did to curb/nerf public enthusiasm for Bitcoin back in the 2013-2015 time frame (aka "China bans Bitcoin!").
1425  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2021, 03:26:00 AM
Now I want to see her post a tweet explaining bitcoin.

This one is still out there...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4APcgsRdW6w

Lol. Never seen that one. Thanx m8.

 (I know....I must be living under a rock)


Played back at 0.75 speed, that dude sounds exactly like one of my cousins I see at XMas time, when he's had way too much to drink.
1426  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2021, 12:13:58 AM
Normal girl explains what's going on with the stonk market:

https://twitter.com/avalonpenrose/status/1354496683938201600

She nailed it.

Really?
Sounds like she has no idea what she’s talking about to me..

r/Woosh
r/explainthejoke




 She was able to put so much emotion into her explanation.  

at the end she knows it was really bad but decided to put it online anyways.  Huh

OMG, you guys are hopeless.

1. She's an actress

2. She did this monologue as a joke. Like SNL.

3. You apparently did not get the joke

Is it an American humor thing? I dunno.
1427  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2021, 10:46:09 PM
Normal girl explains what's going on with the stonk market:

https://twitter.com/avalonpenrose/status/1354496683938201600

She nailed it.

Really?
Sounds like she has no idea what she’s talking about to me..

r/Woosh
r/explainthejoke


1428  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2021, 09:02:58 PM
Normal girl explains what's going on with the stonk market:

https://twitter.com/avalonpenrose/status/1354496683938201600

She nailed it.
1429  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2021, 07:02:38 PM
This all makes sense, as long there are no major Bitcoin ETFs.

When major and prominent Bitcoin ETFs become a thing, they will likely blow a hole in the typical halving/bull-bear cycles of Bitcoin, as price will rise suddenly and dramatically in a hockey stick fashion, and then the curve will flatten out. Which will completely obscure any past price discovery mechanism of bitcoin through a supply/demand model, as prices will likely be orders of magnitude higher than typical due to Wall Street's extreme margin fueled over-leveraging. Bitcoin mining hashrate will possibly lag for years and years behind this event as mega miners struggle to get new hardware online.

That's why it's so critical for today's Average Joe to get in before Bitcoin ETFs begin to rule the day. Once this event passes, all bets are off and God knows who will be controlling the price of bitcoin beyond that point.

But ETFs follow the price and do not dictate the price. The price will only go up because the fund manager is forced to "physically" acquire more of the underlying, as in, to actually get the bitcoins, either from OTC or from exchanges, or they have some sort of connection with the big custodial ones that service institutions (Gemini, Grayscale, Coinbase are some examples).

It would also be a danger to the ETF fund manager / owner, to rehypothecate. They would need to show the BTC somehow, either through a regulated custodial entity, or if they self-custody, some sort of proof perhaps showing the address or the balance, or at least telling the world how many bitcoins they have.

Sure, this might be the case in the beginning, but surely Dabs you are not so naive as to think it will stay that way for very long?

As happened with the PMs not long after PM ETFs became a thing, there eventually will be relaxed rules around the underlying Bitcoin asset, eventually relaxed reserve rules and lack of audits/transparency, then re-hypothecation, phantom shares, over-leveraged naked shorting, etc., etc. And the SEC will turn a blind eye to all of it.

It will all happen to Bitcoin too eventually, guaranteed. It's not a matter of if, only a matter of when.
1430  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2021, 06:33:42 PM
It’s February..
Pump season doesn’t end till like December-January..

Still just the beginning..

I listened to a few podcasts with PlanB and Willy Woo, and they both agreed pump season lasts about 18 months after the most recent halving, noting that there have only been two previous halvings. By their estimate, December 2021 might be a good ending.

He did note, that is all based on on-chain data, so show him any 1 month block of data, without prices, and he can tell you what he thinks if it's bull season or bear season, all without looking at the price.. interesting times.

They also talk about super-cycles, and this would be the first ever. It's quite possible we don't really see any "cycles" attached to halvings anymore, although for sure there would still be an effect of those as the supply that comes into the market gets cut in half on the next halving.

I'm tending to believe what Saylor said, that eventually, 200% annual appreciation would go down to 150% after a few years, then to 100%, then to 50%; but we will all get to see $500k and $1m, and from there it goes on slowly to $10m or higher.

This all makes sense, as long there are no major Bitcoin ETFs.

When major and prominent Bitcoin ETFs become a thing, they will likely blow a hole in the typical halving/bull-bear cycles of Bitcoin, as price will rise suddenly and dramatically in a hockey stick fashion, and then the curve will flatten out. Which will completely obscure any past price discovery mechanism of bitcoin through a supply/demand model, as prices will likely be orders of magnitude higher than typical due to Wall Street's extreme margin fueled over-leveraging. Bitcoin mining hashrate will possibly lag for years and years behind this event as mega miners struggle to get new hardware online.

That's why it's so critical for today's Average Joe to get in before Bitcoin ETFs begin to rule the day. Once this event passes, all bets are off and God knows who will be controlling the price of bitcoin beyond that point.
1431  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2021, 03:03:22 PM
This Rubini guy is a professor, right? It just defies belief that he is frantically asking like a madman "What's the purpose of Bitcoin? Where does it help us?"... It's just mind boggling. Hasn't he even bothered to read the books by Antonopoulos and Ammous? I would understand if it was my grandma saying this nonsense, but him? A university professor and economist? Man, this is some crazy shit.

Economists are people too.

I mean, Paul Krugman even got a Nobel Prize in Economics and yet... said some pretty stupid shit.

The problem folks like Paul Krugman and others have with Bitcoin..is that it is based 100% on faith in the system/blockchain of Bitcoin..ie the mechanism...

the strength of Bitcoin and why it is the disruptor of their conventional thinking has done so well and quite frankly weirds them out is that ..again...the success

of Bitcoin is it is based 100% on faith. They can't see humans as having anything 100% faith in without failure...but all great things start with 100% faith


from love to democracy to walking on the moon. The trick is to have the 'faith' last until it is common and accepted as the next step...from faith to truth.

Tis' damn hard to 'stop' or 'spin' faith ..especially in a decentralized and trustless manner....this is the basis of democracy itself...

so it is both...decentralization plus faith in the process is more a movement than an 'economic' engine...they will never get their head around this.

This is confusing as hell to me...so it must really be driving folks like Paul Krugman nuts.....but then again....faith in any decentralized idea be it democracy

or bitcoin..is always the outlier...till it ain't... Smiley

They better get used to it however....it is how Bitcoin rolls... Smiley

brad

This is exactly it in a nutshell.

Once an asset has the attributes/properties that are desirable as a form of money, the rest of it's value is all derived from faith.

I often use the example of precious metals, because idiots like Rubini and Schiff always want to bring up gold and how it has been used for thousands of years as money, it has "intrinsic value", blah blah blah.

But what about thousands of years ago, when the first 1-100 people that first discovered gold, picked up gold rocks off the ground, and decided to start bartering with them?

Why did they even start doing that? Answer: Faith in the metal as money/SOV.

Why did that group then grow from 100 to 1000, then 10,000, then 100,000? Answer: Faith in the metal as money/SOV.

It wasn't the "intrinsic value" of gold and silver that caused their monetary value to rise, it was 100% pure faith from humans that PMs were a good form of money. And they went from exactly zero value to the value we give them today.

So it's not the "thing itself" that gives it value as money/SOV, it's the people using it. It's a faith-based mutual agreement amongst the users.
1432  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2021, 12:36:24 AM
The newspaper comments sections are not for readers to give their opinions. The comments section is for media to evaluate how well their propaganda has been assimilated. So comments will be what they've been fed over and over. So they repeat ponzi scheme, fraud, scam, you lose all your money, its used for crime, drugs, CP, tax evasion, money laundering, its not regulated, its not backed up by anything (like gold). The same people also are completely ignorant of how the debt based currency systems work. To my knowledge it is not taught in schools. I like you story of the Germans storming the train station but with tickets.

This is very true, but...

Most people don't realize that comments sections have been taken over by numerous fake media sockpuppet accounts with social agendas.

Hence the articles about Bitcoin have commentary that leans extremely negative, with same exact talking points as the media.
1433  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 11, 2021, 10:29:44 PM
Bitcoin Haters:

20k it won’t make all-time high
30k bitcoin is a bubble
40k bitcoin is a lottery ticket
50k bitcoin will crash soon
60k bitcoin is like tulips
70k bitcoin is going to zero
80k bitcoin can’t go higher
90k I'm done tryna convince you nutjobs
...
...
...
...
...
400k Sign up for my bitcoin newsletter where I’ll show you how to buy

 Grin
1434  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 11, 2021, 10:13:49 PM
OT: Wolfgang Van Halen, Eddie's son, drops his first solo album. He wrote the songs, sang them, and played instruments on them.

The boy can sing pretty well.

First single, worth a listen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXqz_NNwT20
1435  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 11, 2021, 06:29:51 PM
Does anyone have the list of WO members that need to be woken up at 50K?
...
BobLawblaw

Not selling at $50k. Decided we don't have any reason to, even on principle. Rick and I both have enough fiat set aside to last us comfortably for the rest of our unnatural lives.

Decided we're going to sell another mil when we're ready to start building on the ranch. The weather turned to shit overnight, so I suspect that's going to delay the engineering survey for possibly two weeks, but we are remaining patient, and not in a hurry to get the deal done.

Due diligence on a land deal the size we are considering is nontrivial. The agent repping us even commented "I've never worked on a deal this large for personal use"

Reminds me of my 70+ acre land deal a few years back.

The look on my agent's face when he said, "You mean you're gonna...pay cash for the whole thing?"  Grin

And thank the gods I got the house built when I did...lumber prices are now through the roof.
1436  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 10, 2021, 04:29:26 PM
Not sure whether this has already been posted but posting it anyway: here

*Zero Hedge explaining how JP Morgan will be wrong again.

Thanks, read the whole article. Some great information there.

Btw, can anyone here figure out how to tell the owner of this website to update it with the Tesla and MassMutual announcements?
1437  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 09, 2021, 09:19:07 PM
Some of these guys got the game all wrong.

I borrowed $10K at 0% interest to live on/pay expenses this year, instead of selling btc when it was @~7k.

Don't have to pay it back until May 2021.


Now btc is ~$15k.

#winningbigly

Borrow cheap credit to live, let your bitcoin ride. This is what the wealthy elite do.


Just an update on this.

Observing current btc price of ~$47k.

Can't wait to see what the price is when I have to sell to pay this $10k loan back in May July. *I thought May, it's actually July

#btcprofitbaby
#winningbigly
1438  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 09, 2021, 03:38:15 PM

https://twitter.com/PrestonPysh/status/1358810978327142400
1439  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 09, 2021, 02:19:22 PM
Tesla's $1.5B Bitcoin Investment 'A Sign Of Desperation' From Elon Musk, Says Analyst
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/teslas-1-5b-bitcoin-investment-073527943.html

You hear that, Average Joe? Buying bitcoin is an "act of desperation" and is actually a bad thing, not a good thing.

The MSM message remains clear: stay the fk away from bitcoin! /s  Roll Eyes  Tongue
1440  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2021, 08:01:55 PM
A little bed time reading for ya...

The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin Billionaire Arthur Hayes

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/02/the-rise-and-fall-of-bitcoin-billionaire-arthur-hayes?utm_source=pocket-newtab
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