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1601  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Accusations against shakaru on: March 13, 2012, 06:53:56 AM
Shakaru is a theif, show us your bitcoin wallet you two bit scammer

Comprehension fail.

Let's try this again from the beginning.

For the newbs just learning about this, and in 1 paragraph, clearly and concisely explain what happened between you and Shakaru.

Thanks

woah slow down Matthew, you gotta start with something easier.

how about maybe just ask him how many paragraphs = 1 paragraph.
1602  Other / Meta / Re: Why does SMF search function suck? on: March 13, 2012, 06:34:34 AM
This is due to google's search heuristics...they try to search via the pronunciation of the word they deem to be off-target.
In this case "aussie" was deemed as "us" as the pronunciation are similar plus US gives more results then aussie.

in other words, they failed the comprehend the meaning of the word 'aussie' in this context.
1603  Other / Meta / Re: Why does SMF search function suck? on: March 13, 2012, 06:05:46 AM
just got this google fail while at work:


1604  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: how to calculate next difficulty? on: March 13, 2012, 01:04:20 AM
The same concept applies.  At any point you can adjust the next difficulty by looking at the PRIOR 2016 blocks.

Most sites don't do this because they are using difficulty and future difficulty to project network hashrate and to don't want to complicate the calculations with multiple difficulties.

So they do this.
At 1 block after difficulty adjustment they use 1 block.
...
At 100 blocks after difficulty adjustment they use 100 blocks.

Instead you can do this
At 1 block after difficulty adjustment you use the last 2016 blocks.
...
At 100 block after difficulty adjustment you use the last 2016 blocks.


at that point (1 block after), wouldn't using the last 2016 blocks give a better 'projection of network hashrate' ?
1605  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: how to calculate next difficulty? on: March 13, 2012, 12:26:50 AM
Rather than smoothing jumps you can use a sliding window to update the difficulty on every block.

More on that here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64048

great idea... thanks, i hadn't seen that thread.

edit: just read that thread... it's more about the current difficulty and bitcoin code... not really about the next estimate, which playing with (eg, on a webpage) wouldn't have to touch the source code whatsoever.
1606  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: how to calculate next difficulty? on: March 13, 2012, 12:12:57 AM
cheers, very helpful.

i was trying to think of ways one could more smoothly introduce the next estimate, instead of having the crazy-wild inaccurate estimate that occurs right after a difficulty change.

next estimate could be introduced more gradually, if that makes sense.

if it doesn't make sense, here's an example:

say X is the current difficulty and Y is the crazy-inaccurate estimate that occurrs right after a difficulty change.

Z will be the 'smoother' hopefully more accurate guess of next difficulty...

1st day after difficulty change, Z is 13/14 of X + 1/14 of Y
2nd day after difficulty change, Z is 12/14 of X + 2/14 of Y
...
13th day after difficulty change, Z is 1/14 of X + 13/14 of Y
14th day after difficulty change, Z = Y (which will be much more accurate at this point)

also, instead of doing this in 14 chunks, you could make it even more fine-grained, even down to the millisecond if you wish.


tl;dr purely just out of a nerdy love of maths, i'd love to discuss possible algorithms for a (much) more accurate next-difficulty estimate.
1607  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Got my BFL Single today and I'm raffling it away for 0.5BTC! on: March 12, 2012, 12:38:39 PM
83 hours left and counting. Anyone can win this with just a single entry. If you buy two entries, you'll have twice the chance of winning! (Aren't I good at math?)

Nope

with 100 participants if you have 1 ticket you get 1/100 chance. If you buy a second ticket you will get 2/101 which is not double. Tongue
Sorry but I had to contradict you. don't know why Cheesy

I said it tongue in cheek, but now I'll clarify with actual figures:

If you have no raffle credits and you buy one raffle credit, you in fact increase your chances of winning by 100%.


i thought going from 0% chance to anything would be much more than a 100% increase.
1608  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: how to calculate next difficulty? on: March 12, 2012, 10:41:37 AM
so, as an example calculation:

say difficulty is 1,000,000

last 2016 blocks took exactly 1 week.

does that mean next difficulty is 2,000,000  ...or is it an order of magnitude thing, like next diff 10,000,000?

(sorry, i don't really know how the total network hash rate might affect things like that)
1609  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: how to calculate next difficulty? on: March 12, 2012, 09:41:06 AM
From Wikipedia:
Quote
Bitcoin changes the difficulty of finding a valid block every 2016 blocks. Each node in the network adjusts the difficulty so the distribution mean is λ = 2016 blocks per two weeks, so that there are roughly ten minutes between the creation of new blocks on average (the wait times between events in a Poisson process follow an exponential distribution). The network sets the difficulty to the value that would have most likely caused the prior 2016 blocks to take two weeks to complete, given the same computational effort (according to the timestamps recorded in the blocks).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Difficulty

thanks, i'd read that before but hadn't taken it in properly i guess. i've high-lighted the part which says how it's calculated.

i always thought the 'ten minutes' part was hard-coded and that caused '2 weeks' to be a rough estimate, but if i'm understanding the above correctly, it's '2 weeks' which is hard-coded, causing '10 minutes' to be a rough estimate.

1610  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / how to calculate next difficulty? on: March 12, 2012, 08:31:34 AM
i was wondering, how does the next difficulty actually get estimated?

after searching for a while, all i can find are sites which give an (the?) estimate, but nothing that explains how that figure was calculated.

eg. blockexplorer.com, bitcoinwatch.com, bitcoindifficulty.com...

how's it worked out?
1611  Economy / Speculation / Re: $4 is the new $2 on: March 12, 2012, 03:03:13 AM
can ANYONE point me to a beginner's guide or something on shorting stocks?

this is the best i could come up with
1612  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: {ANNOUNCEMENT} WBX Exchange Frozen on: March 12, 2012, 01:59:07 AM
You may want to consider offering, though only as an option, to let people withdraw their fiat currency balances in Bitcoins. You can use the rate from another exchange or you can fix the week's average rate. This is probably easier for you to do than mailing people checks, especially from closed accounts. And at least offering it will reassure people that they'll be getting their money back.

yeah i'd much prefer this
1613  Economy / Services / Re: Need BTC Withdraw System on: March 11, 2012, 11:33:28 PM
it's hard to find devs it's true, but honestly bbit i think you need to make a more realistic budget.
1614  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Accusations against shakaru on: March 11, 2012, 11:30:28 PM
Oh, I am 100% sure it's asstana. He still owes Phinnaeus a thousand bucks.

i'd be more interested in the paper his guarantee was written on... it's obviously worth a lot more.
1615  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: {ANNOUNCEMENT} WBX Exchange Frozen on: March 11, 2012, 11:28:24 PM
I think the point payb.tc was making was that ANZ is the scammer, not Andre.

A+
1616  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: {ANNOUNCEMENT} WBX Exchange Frozen on: March 11, 2012, 09:00:44 PM
are several people who have been scammed vs. only a single person.

if you're looking for the 'scammer', try ANZ.
1617  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: We're 30,300 blocks from the reward drop! on: March 11, 2012, 08:37:26 AM
39,364

= ~273 days to go

1618  Economy / Services / Re: Shades Minoco / Shakaru / Collections / Debt on: March 11, 2012, 08:21:04 AM
OP updated and also includes bou707 $150 debt.

doesn't look updated to me... shift-refresh and all.

I see bou707's at the very least, wasn't sure what else I was looking for

yep finally got it to update... must have just been me.
(also updated is bitsinmyhead 120 btc debt changed to likuidxd 60 btc)
1619  Economy / Services / Re: Shades Minoco / Shakaru / Collections / Debt on: March 11, 2012, 07:53:24 AM
OP updated and also includes bou707 $150 debt.

doesn't look updated to me... shift-refresh and all.
1620  Economy / Services / Re: Shades Minoco / Shakaru / Collections / Debt on: March 11, 2012, 12:07:09 AM
so previously i could see no benefit in moving things to glbse.

but now i see...

no benefit, in addition to having to pay a fee.
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