Sometimes people buy Bitcoin, and the price goes up. Then they buy more, and it goes up a lot. A real whole lot. But sometimes, people sell a little bit, and the price goes down a little. Then they sell a little bit more, and the price goes down some more. But then, crash! People cry. And then... up. And up. And up some more. And then... pump! People like wtf?  And then... moon! People smile. And then... down again. And then...crash. People cry again. So you see? Yeah. That. There it is. All you need to know. |
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Yeah, people need to relax a bit.
We've seen these kind of pullbacks every December when some traders take profit for tax purposes. And the market selling and lack of momentum trade makes it easier for other whale traders to then build a larger short position in order to push down the price more.
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Story Time:
Ya' know, even though you may own a lot of nice things in life, sometimes it's the littlest of things that make you smile.
Some 30 odd years ago, I'm in college and about to graduate. It was time to move out of our apartment, and my wealthy roommate (who was also my best friend at the time) and I were packing our things. I hear him say, "Hey, you want any of these?" and I look over, and he's talking about a few components of his stereo system. That he bought new, literally a year earlier. He had top of the line Kenwood and Pioneer stereo components and speakers. That's the kind of guy he was at the time...a nice guy, but because he had so much money (a trust fund baby) he valued so little of his belongings, and was contemplating giving most of his stuff away instead of the hassle of moving it.
"Really? Why don't you want it??"
"Eh... I'll just buy a new stereo system when I get home. Plus I don't know what kind of setup I'll want."
"Wow, ok. I'll take the CD changer. Thanks!"
**** fast forward 30 years later ****
This week I was thinking about listening to some old Christmas CDs of mine. I have a fairly new Onkyo stereo receiver and some great surround speakers, but then realized I had no CD player. Then suddenly I remembered the Kenwood CD Changer that my old room mate gave me, and rushed down to the basement and started rooting through old boxes. And low and behold, there it was, buried in an old dusty box. It hadn't been touched since I packed it from college.
I gave it a good dusting and clean up, plugged it in, and wow...amazing sound coming from something that was top of the line in 1990. The remote still works and the whole unit looks brand new.
So here I am, listening to great Christmas music on something that my old roommate was just going to toss out 30 years ago. Mind blown.
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I don't really like this American bashing that is displayd every now and then, even by Americans themselves. I have lived in Colorado and the people I met were no dumber than the average Swede.
Colorado isn't an average state. They rank near the top 10 in education, healthcare, and economy. Don't forget altitude! Colorado has the highest mean altitude as well as the 'highest' populace. Also they have the highest number of waiters and brewmasters with either a Masters degree or PhD. /zing!  (Sorry, that pot shot was just too easy) |
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Plot twist: He used the $1M to buy actual Bitcoin. P.S. Also ChuckECheeseCoin (CECC) should be thing. |
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Don’t get caught up in the hype as bitcoin hovers around $19,000https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/02/dont-get-caught-up-in-the-hype-as-bitcoin-hovers-around-19000.html"Most advisors would caution clients who want to invest in bitcoin, or any other buzzy trend.
It can be easy to have FOMO, or fear of missing out, on the latest hot investing trend, according to Roger Ma, CFP and founder of New York City-based financial planning firm lifelaidout.
It’s best to keep your goals in mind before putting money into a fad investment, which could be something like bitcoin, a commodity like gold or the latest hot stock that’s taking off."
You hear that plebs? The MSM message is clear --- stay the fk away from bitcoin!
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There is one problem: mining. Satoshi Nakamoto (whoever he was) once said ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57.msg415#msg415) that "the price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost" and "in later years, when new coin generation is a small percentage of the existing supply, market price will dictate the cost of production more than the other way around". I agree. Later years are still very far away. Widespread institutional adoption may shift the balance, but without it the price will gravitate toward the mining cost, that is low tens of thousands, for years to come. Which is why non mining hodlers like difficulty increases. Not only more security, but also higher production cost. Right. I am not against difficulty increases (my mining days are long gone), but I can hardly imagine a tenfold increase of the current production cost. As I understand, the main constituents are electricity costs and equipment costs (the equipment quickly becomes obsolete and constantly needs to be replaced). The efficiency (hash per joule) continues to increase, so I doubt that the energy consumption can increase significantly. Faster and more efficient equipment is more expensive, but its cost needs to increase faster than difficulty to make the cost of production higher. Right, but you're forgetting another important factor to the final cost: the amount of competition. If you're the only one left mining, it doesn't really matter how computationally powerful or energetically efficient your rig is: each hour, all 6 blocks will be yours. Competition is what drives the arms race to get more powerful, more efficient gear and ultimately lifts production costs. Speaking of which, has anyone got some good links on info regarding the current state of ASICs, pricing, ongoing R&D, etc.? I feel like I've gotten out of the loop on current/future mining hardware. |
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#Bitcoin moves nearly half a million dollars in value around the globe permissionlessly every second. It was never about transactions per second and coffee. It's all about value transacted per second and a new financial paradigm.
#VTPS not #TPS. Nothing comes close to @BTC https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/1333966283876954113 |
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 I fear/worry that 90% of retail FOMO run next year will buy 'crypto', completely ignoring bitcoin. I'm guessing that's exactly what the establishment whale traders would like to see happen. In early 2017, they dumped bitcoin and pumped shitcoins to the moon, literally all in the top 30 at the time, for a reason: to shake weak hands out of bitcoin. |
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Another day, another CEO doing a U turn on corn: |  |  | | 2017 | 2020 |
Well, what next in 2023? "BlackRock CEO Larry Fink:Bitcoin is the new Dollar!" Credit go to Plutosky on the Italian Board Sauce: https://youtube.com/watch?v=NKxTSk8cONwPinching my arm: By the CEO of f*cking BlackRock with close to 8 trillion Assets Under Management (that is 24x Bitcoin’s market cap). This is a must-watch video if you want to understand how the 'global elites' are thinking right now. These are 2 very well-connected and intelligent gentlemen, and so is the audience who are asking questions. And what do they want to talk about? Government global warming policy, Fed policy, interest rates, Covid-19, working from home, unemployment... etc but not Bitcoin. There is one question from the audience right at the end about Bitcoin. They can't even say the word, instead, they call it the "B-word". Why can't they say the word 'Bitcoin? Because giving it oxygen is problematic, and they even say as much. But why don't they want to promote Bitcoin? Simple - they don't have a position yet, and Bitcoin undermines their current lucrative income stream as middlemen in the global financial system. What we are seeing here are smart people who don't want Bitcoin, but also know it can't be stopped, just slowed down. They also know money can be made from speculating on it, so that is what they are starting to do, albeit quietly behind the scenes. These guys will take a Bitcoin position, probably next year, and then will become the biggest advocates of all time.
But not yet.And you know why they don't have a position yet? Because they don't take up positions on assets like Average Joe does. They don't want to hold the underlying commodity directly. Too messy. What they want is to take a massive 10,000X leveraged position through a derivative vehicle - an ETF. In billions of $$$. https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/shark-tank-investor-kevin-oleary-says-he-would-buy-a-crypto-etf-2020-12-1029859503?utm_source=reddit.comAnd we don't have that... yet. |
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Yeah but...if you can 'print' as many stable coins as you can do with fiat, I don't see how that is even remotely a win for anybody that uses them.  |
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Another day, another CEO doing a U turn on corn: | | | | 2017 | 2020 |
Well, what next in 2023? "BlackRock CEO Larry Fink:Bitcoin is the new Dollar!" Credit go to Plutosky on the Italian Board This shit really pisses me off. These so called "U-Turns" are not sound/smart people merely waking up one day and changing their minds. They are the wealthy elites that have known about Bitcoin's true nature since the day they learned about it, but have been part of a massive, coordinated, nine-year MSM smear campaign against Bitcoin in order to influence the public to stay away. |
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t is the ultimate marshmallow challenge. Many of us have lowered our time preference so much we are just not going to let go of much even when it does go up quite a bit.
For me personally the formula revolves around comfortable retirement and a little diversification into property. I just don't want to spend much money on stupid shit, or even living large. And I am acutely aware that the longer I wait the more I will be left with in the end.
That is where the real crux is, in my opinion. Where that point is for each whale/minnow.
You sir, are very wise. Anyone not following a similar recommendation/approach is going to end up with massive regrets before they die. I see so many here joking about blowing their bitcoin "winnings" on fancy cars, frivolous shit and such, and inwardly I know some of them aren't really joking. You know what they say ‘Youth is wasted on the young’ by the time we have the mental clarity to appreciate our actions and the long term effect they have on our lives we already missed those opportunities and they are way behind us. It is natural to be excited about bitcoin and its potential and to want to have an endless party with our earnings when we are young but it is only when you are older when you realize that such thing is simply not worth it, one of those frivolous things are fancy cars, lambos as the community call them, even if they have no intention to buy specifically a Lamborghini, but why do we need one? Who are we trying to impress? It is way better to not focus ourselves in medium maximization and to focus on how we can use that medium to actually achieve happiness. Exactly. I can tell anyone here, once you have enough bitcoin to buy a Lambo ten times over, not only will you *not* want one, you also realize that it would be huge mistake to buy one. |
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t is the ultimate marshmallow challenge. Many of us have lowered our time preference so much we are just not going to let go of much even when it does go up quite a bit.
For me personally the formula revolves around comfortable retirement and a little diversification into property. I just don't want to spend much money on stupid shit, or even living large. And I am acutely aware that the longer I wait the more I will be left with in the end.
That is where the real crux is, in my opinion. Where that point is for each whale/minnow.
You sir, are very wise. Anyone not following a similar recommendation/approach is going to end up with massive regrets before they die. I see so many here joking about blowing their bitcoin "winnings" on fancy cars, frivolous shit and such, and inwardly I know some of them aren't really joking. |
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...unless a total dollar collapse, which is unlikely ...
All fiat currencies are in the same boat and with centralised institutions firmly in place, able and determined to go where the dollar is going. And that means continued devaluation compared to hard assets. Slowly but surely for the larger part. First time that this happens globally so I consider a true immediate and isolated dollar collapse as a low risk event. It will rather be a slow demise of fiat currencies with double digit inflation should they push the string too hard. The world needs a stable numeraire and Bitcoin can provide this. Markets are smelling this in ever increasing degree. A lot of people out there don't understand that we are still in the beginning exponential growth stages of Bitcoin becoming that new "stable numeraire". Bitcoin's first 10 years after discovery == Gold's first 100 years after discovery. |
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What I don't understand about gold shills is that gold has a well defined role, and I totally accept the argument that owning some is prudent (by owning, I mean really owning it, hidden in a wall or something, not at a bank or worse some kind of paper gold), however that doesn't lead to gold being a sound financial investment. On the contrary, if gold was going to moon, it had millenia to do so, why should something special happen now ? Sure it can go up some, maybe even double, but BTC has doubled several times just this year !
PMs will protect your wealth from inflation debasement (well, depending on when on the charts you buy them), but that's about it. PMs have been a deeply captured market for centuries and so they make sure no moon rocket will ever come (unless a total U.S. dollar collapse, which is unlikely). |
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