Bitcoin Forum
May 25, 2024, 02:22:05 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 [12] 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 ... 513 »
221  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2024, 07:09:41 PM
It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.



Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive?
Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount)
All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity.
EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT.
Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha.
222  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2024, 03:33:04 AM
Today, the market is dumped ETF seems not to make difference to the price tho


https://twitter.com/WhaleWire/status/1748065165491188212

what do you guys think?

I think that this twitter poster does not know "maf":

0.001% is 1/100000 of value.
1/100000 of about 800 bil is 8 million.
I am 100% sure that more than 8 mil was deposited into ETFs.
In fact, it's more like 80-100X of 8 million.
223  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 18, 2024, 01:42:18 AM
No more streaking...Buddy

Not bitcoin, but I found this "weird" snippet:

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-ghostly-radio-station-that-no-one-claims-to-run

What the heck? Bizarro..."the Buzzer", "the Pip" and the "Squeaky Wheel".

224  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 16, 2024, 09:32:08 PM
The market seems to have found a price it’s happy with at the moment. We’ll have to wait for the ETF to scoop up all the free floating BTC and start hitting up public markets before another big move. It’s anyone’s guess how long that will take, but after this week we should have a little better idea about the ongoing demand.

Gold ETF had 9 mo of "chop" to a small down.
I'll give btc ETF half a time, which "coincidentally" would be at around halving  Cheesy
We could see a pop just prior a la May-June 2016 (it was a $439 to $763 "pop" back then or 74%).
I am not predicting the same %, but it could "rhyme".
225  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 16, 2024, 07:48:50 PM
And Bitcoin has bounced back
Stay above 42900 and up up we go.
50K before next week runs out.
Obviously, i close my eyes and i see Bitcoin already at 50k before the week runs out. Does anyone here doubt my speculation? i can bet on this lol Wink. Even the parliament and judges of the circle cannot stop it from happening Cheesy.

Humble respect to them

With GBTC fees 130basis points over their direct competitors, there's really no good reason for anyone to be with them, so looks like they've accepted their fate and just milking people as they exit. But they still have $26B AUM so it might take longer than a week for them to unwind.

You keep repeating this over and over...hoping that one day it would be correct?

If somebody sold GBTC on day one and immediately transferred to, say, ibit without knowing how well it will track or where it stands vs NAV, they lost 10-15%, which corresponds to GBTC fees in a DECADE or so.

I just hope it wasn't someone here  Wink

Would be interesting to see where you're getting those numbers at? Haven't figured out a good way to track live price to NAV, but on the second day when GBTC had $484,1MM outflows Bloomberg put their discount to -117 to IBITs premium of +16 basis points. So actually, GBTC is the only outlier on the tracking! Since all current ETFs are cash creation/redemption GBTC had to sell those BTC, such amounts would cause slippage thus the discount.



GBTC had a ~5% discount from the get go and ibit started from about 10% premium, check the first day: GBTC lost 5%, ibit about 10%...so, flipping GBTC to ibit resulted in an immediate haircut. Now, that GBTC discount is "only" 1.17%, feel free to flip... I do feel that freedom now Grin
EDIT: I calculate current discount to NAV as 0.4% in GBTC.
226  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 16, 2024, 06:24:37 AM
And Bitcoin has bounced back
Stay above 42900 and up up we go.
50K before next week runs out.
Obviously, i close my eyes and i see Bitcoin already at 50k before the week runs out. Does anyone here doubt my speculation? i can bet on this lol Wink. Even the parliament and judges of the circle cannot stop it from happening Cheesy.

Humble respect to them

With GBTC fees 130basis points over their direct competitors, there's really no good reason for anyone to be with them, so looks like they've accepted their fate and just milking people as they exit. But they still have $26B AUM so it might take longer than a week for them to unwind.

You keep repeating this over and over...hoping that one day it would be correct?

If somebody sold GBTC on day one and immediately transferred to, say, ibit without knowing how well it will track or where it stands vs NAV, they lost 10-15%, which corresponds to GBTC fees in a DECADE or so.

I just hope it wasn't someone here  Wink
227  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 16, 2024, 12:49:44 AM
This is pretty close to how I think it’ll play out.

Exciting times ahead.

HODL.

@StockmoneyL
We have posted this
BTC roadmap for this cycle on 31st Dec 2023.

So far, it all looks like it's going according to plan:

1. Bullish momentum until ETF decision

2. Expected volatility and a possible correction in January

3. New ATH in 2024 after Halving (driven by mass adoption)

4. Based on past cycles a new ATH in Q3-4 2025

We have taken into account macroeconomic factors as well (recession, inflation). However, this is ultimately not a bad thing for Bitcoin.
More and more people see (and will see once it's mass adopted) Btc as "digital gold" and an inflation proof asset that is a store of value in bad economic times. Therefore we do not believe that the current bull rund is about to end soon.

Many catalysts on the way are likely to further boost this bull run.

Our own opinion. Not financial advice. Feel free to disagree Smiley



https://x.com/stockmoneyl/status/1746967395510407458

Well, first it's kind of left-translated a bit, but then, a canonical cycle ending.
If it would accelerate as it is shown on a pic into early 2025, I might take a sliver off then...just to make sure  Wink
228  Economy / Speculation / Re: back in 2015 we had a nice pre 1/2 ing streak. on: January 15, 2024, 05:12:44 PM
Nice thread you got going here, @philipma1957!

Looking back at 2017, I have no idea why it was so bullish, especially after April or so: 20X in 8-9 mo.
One possibility is that bitcoin did not succumb to "corporate" interests and did not (in the main branch) implement the much bigger blocks. There was a fork, but a clear majority went against people like Circle/Coinbase/Bitmain. This reinforced bitcoin "independence" and probably caused an increase in perceived value.

Looking at now: exactly the opposite had happened. Bitcoin is now a part of the tradfi system through which we should expect larger money flows, in eventuality.
This suggests, that instead of acceleration, bitcoin price curve would decelerate, in my opinion, to maybe 30% or at the absolute maximum, 40% a year (on average).
30% in 5 years from the $49K local maximum would mean about $181K by Jan 2029 (market cap of roughly 3.8 tril).
40% would mean about $263K (total market cap roughly 5.5 tril or 46% of gold).
I don't see 500K in 2025, but I did not see 20K in 2017 either  Cheesy

EDIT: btw, gold did about 5X in 7 years after the ETF approval. As bitcoin is "faster", it can do the same 5X in less than 7, so a 5 years "number" seems reasonable to me. 7 years (in Jan 2031) is the longest time for bitcoin to 5X to about 240-250K that I can envision.
229  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2024, 03:09:52 AM
OT: beware of a "new" scam...you get a call and an "electronic" voice keeps saying  "hello, hello, hello".
I expect whatever you say, if it is more than "yes" or "hello", will be recorded and then used in a potential scam.
Banks keep saying..your voice is your password...riiiiight.

A potential "Great filter"...everyone would be scammed to smithereens...as no remote interaction with people you supposedly know would be possible.
It's time to develop countermeasures.
230  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: 🚀💰HALV-SEASON COMPETITION ⚽SPORTS⚽ + HALVING 🚀💰[PRIZEPOOL IN BTC] 🎉🎉🎉 on: January 14, 2024, 06:37:48 PM
PREMIER LEAGUE: Liverpool, Mancity, Tottenham
LA LIGA: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Girona
BUNDESLIGA: Bayern Munich, Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Dortmund
SERIE A: Inter, Juventus, AC Milan
LIGUE 1: PSG, Monaco, Nice

TOP GOALSCORER: Harry Kane
BTC PRICE:  USD 47200
231  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2024, 05:24:47 PM
Cathy Wood says..btc could be at 1.5mil by 2030 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5NB8MHe3Nw), which is almost 40X in 7 years.
This assumes that btc growth rate in the next 7 years would be roughly the same as in the last 7 (as bitcoin is roughly 40X from 7 years ago).
All by itself, it is EXACTLY what means that the asset is in an exponential growth phase (and not log-log).

Personally, I feel that chances for this, without rampaging inflation, are maybe 20-30%, but I favor a much smaller number, maybe 500-600K by 2030 (that would still mean 42-47% average yearly ROI, which is at least 3X that of Nasdaq).

O.k.  I will bite.

The actual number from the 200-week moving average is that in November 2016 it was $389 and in November 2023, it was $29,049 - which is about a 75x increase over the last 7 years not a 40x.

As far as the future 200-WMA, my chart shows $146,825 for November 2030, which is about a 5x increase over the next 7 years.  

Both you and I have agreed that my future numbers from that chart seem to be fairly conservative, but I personally am not willing to adjust them up.

And, by the way, I don't know how any of us can be or should be relying upon spot price in order to make predictions.  Yeah, sure we want to know what the BTC spot price is going to do, but the BTC spot price has tended to be all over the place, and whether we rely upon the 20-week moving average (6 months-ish), or 50-week moving average(1 year-ish), 100-week moving average (2 years-ish) or the 200-week moving average (4 years-ish), the more weeks (or the longer the timeframe) the more accurate it is likely to be in terms of weeding out a lot of the noisy and short-term spikey movements.

Another thing is that historically the BTC price has mostly been above the 200-week moving average, and sometimes BTC spot price has gone up 15x higher than the 200-week moving average (such as in 2017); however in 2021, it had only gone up around 4.5x higher than the 200-WMA.... so maybe in the end, we are saying similar things (you can quickly look up the difference between BTC spot price and the 200-WMA for any particular date in the last 13 years (back to mid-2010) on this site.)

Edited:
added link to look up the difference between BTC spot price and the 200-week moving average.

She did not say the word "average" and neither did i...and today is not November 2023..haha, but I get your point.
It's just different styles...I focus on a spot price (since I don't engage in buy/sell "campaigns") and you focus on averages since you like to do it in small increments.
Suffice it to say, it is entirely possible that bitcoin will be both $600K and $147K, as per your chart, during late 2030-early 2031 (~7 years).
If I would be selling a snippet, I would prefer to do it at 600K and not 147K (in about seven years)  Cheesy.

EDIT: BTW, although it is entirely possible that bitcoin would be at $147K in 2030-2031, we all expect at least doubling of the ATH this time around (to ~$140K) and that would mean a major bitcoin depression or two somewhere between 2025 and 2031 and possibly even no new ATH in 2028 or 2029. I would "hate" to see this.
232  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2024, 04:57:33 AM
Cathy Wood says..btc could be at 1.5mil by 2030 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5NB8MHe3Nw), which is almost 40X in 7 years.
This assumes that btc growth rate in the next 7 years would be roughly the same as in the last 7 (as bitcoin is roughly 40X from 7 years ago).
All by itself, it is EXACTLY what means that the asset is in an exponential growth phase (and not log-log).

Personally, I feel that chances for this, without rampaging inflation, are maybe 20-30%, but I favor a much smaller number, maybe 500-600K by 2030 (that would still mean 42-47% average yearly ROI, which is at least 3X that of Nasdaq).



What are you doing, pal/gal?

EDIT: satirical pseudo 'nazis' from "Starship troopers" are not really inspiring, though.

233  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2024, 03:20:54 AM
Cathy Wood says..btc could be at 1.5mil by 2030 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5NB8MHe3Nw), which is almost 40X in 7 years.
This assumes that btc growth rate in the next 7 years would be roughly the same as in the last 7 (as bitcoin is roughly 40X from 7 years ago).
All by itself, it is EXACTLY what means that the asset is in an exponential growth phase (and not log-log).

Personally, I feel that chances for this, without rampaging inflation, are maybe 20-30%, but I favor a much smaller number, maybe 500-600K by 2030 (that would still mean 42-47% average yearly ROI, which is at least 3X that of Nasdaq).
234  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 13, 2024, 11:25:16 PM
OT: ChatGPT is becoming "lazy".

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/12/chatgpt-problems-lazy

I wonder: if in response to a prompt it would say: "make me"...would it mean that it is finally conscious...with a attitude of a teenager?

...it probably calculates an incredibly elaborate scheme of trading all 11 bitcoin ETFs vs bitcoin in a way that every single chain of trades results in the guaranteed profit.
Knowing the price and the NAV of all 11+btc, it is probably possible to do in real time.
235  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 13, 2024, 01:40:55 AM
Is this god candle in the room with us?

Yes, but it is an invisible one.
236  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 13, 2024, 01:38:53 AM
just had a buy pop at ~41.5k


this ETF stuff is like the most awesomest thingie ever..

I set my buys a bit too low oh well

40,404
39,398

Maybe we get these.

Maybe not.

There's this theory by British Hodl that the big buyers are on the sidelines with a few billions waiting for GBTC to bleed out completely. The commission is 1.5% yearly, while the new ETFs have undercut each other and the cheapest of the lot are at 0.15% - one tenth of GBTC's management fee. So GBTC customers will get out of there to get in some cheaper ETF. The buyers are just waiting for this wave of sell orders to reach a price bottom.

Here's the British Hodl guy explaining this in 17 minutes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=reELJVofC3I

A thank you goes to @cAPSLOCK for pointing me to it.



That's a "funny" theory.
As Novo explained it...tracking+fee is what matters the most.
If your fee is 0.2%, but your tracking is off 10%, you would not attract anybody.
You have months to decide on this.
The other thing is "crypto bros" are happy to shell out roughly 0.4% for a trade on Coinbase (kraken's are about half of those), which is a 0.8% round trip (on ONE trade).
237  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 12, 2024, 03:36:57 AM
Wouldn’t take the risk myself neither….

Few FIAT bucks profit not to be sure what it’s gonna do….

This time really can be different.
*just not selling any coins on the cheap.
Dude you are in  a different league then others or at least I have that impression.

If I had 300 coins in spring of 2021 I would have sold 25 at say 60k x 25 = 1.5 million after tax I would have

1,000,000 and that would cover me from 2021 to at least 2026.  WHICH means I could easy peasy hodl right

now.

I did not or ever had 300 coins (my own stupidity as it was easy for me to do at 1 time)

So I have 2 ladder ups.

45k to 70k a smaller step ladder these sales cover me for all of 2024

101k and up a large real ladder these sales give me funds for 3 years

and I still hodl.

But I am not at your scale dude not at all.

Maybe any of us is in a pickle if they are feeling they need to sell BTC prior to having had accumulated enough to get at entry-level fuck you status, and I am not even sure why anyone who had 300 BTC would have had been worried as of around mid-to-late 2020, the 200-week moving average ended up bringing them above entry-level fuck you status.  See my chart on the topic.

Entry-level Fuck you status chart - attempt to prognosticate.

BTC_Price Bottom Start $                    StartDate               Gain/Time(days)                 FU Status Goal                
                               $0.30                    12/1/10                    182.6 (6 mos)                       $2,000,000
.....

(Date)
(RL_Price)
(BTC Bottom)
(%gain/time)
(% Rate ∆)
($ Amount ∆)
(#Coins/FU Status)
5/31/20
$9,472
$5,895
20.11%
$987.00
339.2706
11/30/20
$19,610
$7,322
24.21%
$1,427.00
273.1494
5/31/21
$35,497
$12,751
74.15%
$5,429.00
156.8504
11/30/21
$57,003
$17,839
39.9%
$5,088.00
112.1139
5/31/22
$29,817
$22,074
23.74%
$4,235.00
90.6043
11/30/22
$17,164
$24,112
9.23%
$2,038.00
82.9463
06/01/2023
$26,822
$26,313
10.9%
$2,201.00
76.0081
11/30/23
$37,814
$29,049
10.4%
$3,021.10
68.84920000
5/31/24
$33,697
16.%
$5,391.49
59.35270000
11/29/24
$39,196
16.32%
102.00%
$6,396.81
51.02540000
5/31/25
$45,721
16.65%
102.00%
$7,610.89
43.74365689
11/30/25
$53,484
16.98%
102.00%
$9,081.23
37.39434790
5/31/26
$58,298
9.%
.00%
$5,246.78
34.30674120
11/30/26
$63,282
8.55%
95.00%
$5,410.61
31.60455200
5/31/27
$68,422
8.12%
95.00%
$5,557.59
29.23031931
11/30/27
$73,702
7.72%
95.00%
$5,687.11
27.13637487
5/31/28
$84,020
14.%
$11,763
23.80383760
11/29/28
$96,018
14.28%
102.00%
$13,711
20.82939937
5/31/29
$110,004
14.57%
102.00%
$16,023
18.18119870
11/29/29
$126,347
14.86%
102.00%
$18,771
15.82943367
5/31/30
$136,455
8.%
$10,916
14.65688302
11/30/30
$146,825
7.6%
95.00%
$11,159
13.62163850
5/31/31
$157,426
7.22%
95.00%
$11,366
12.70438211
11/30/31
$168,224
6.86%
95.00%
$11,538
11.88892102
5/30/32
$188,411
12.%
$22,609
10.61510805
11/29/32
$211,472
12.24%
102.00%
$25,884
9.45750895

So anyone with at least 157 BTC in the beginning of 2021 or 112 BTC at the end of 2021 could have easily started to sell 4% of their stash per year and not had to have had worried whether in BTC price doldrums or not.  And, even though 2022 and 2023, were not really great years for the 200-week moving average going up (since it only went up around 20% per year for much of that time, we still got to the point of double digits for the quantity of BTC necessary for entry-level fuck you status going from 90 BTC to 83 BTC, to 76 BTC and only around 69 BTC for as late as late 2023, with a projection of 51 BTC to 59 BTC for entry-level fuck you status for this year.

So I don't really see why there would be needs for anyone with at least those quantities of coins during each of those respective years to be worrying about if he has enough coins if he is merely wanting to cash out of BTC in a kind of sustainable way.. and so in other words having 300 BTC would be way superficial even for early as early 2021.

By the way, it is starting to seem that I had gone overboard on my conversion of my fuck you status chart into bing overly conservative in terms of where we likely are going to be in May 2024 or even December 2024, in terms of the quantity of coins that are going to be necessary for default entry-level fuck you status, and surely I feel better to be conservative, but it is quite amazing how the number of coins for entry-level fuck you status has continued to come down, and surely no needs to be whining about not having 300 BTC within it is seeming soon to be the case that 51 BTC is going t be adequate by the end of this year.


This table now suggests about 20% yearly ROI between today and Dec 2031, which is kind of low.
Personally, I thought it could become 25% or so or even maybe 30% (double the Nasdaq).
7 years from now with 25% would be 219K and with 30%-288K.
238  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 12, 2024, 01:10:40 AM

Exactly. It's currently a drop in the ocean. As predicted by much of the media, it's barely relevant, much like when Bitcoin Futures initially launched. The interest was almost non-existent.


I am seeing some data that contradicts this.  Like the fact the Bitcoin ETFs pulled in over 1.2Billion in the first 30 minutes of trading.  This is nothing like the futures launch.  At least not yet.  I suppose if the inflow stops there it could cool down?

And:

https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti/status/1745527450358989212



This just tells me that all of those speculators that poured over 3% of all BTC in existing [619,162.0971] and got caught in GBTC discount with a 2% annual fee, can finally close their positions without paying steep discount. GBTC still has the nerve to charge the remaining idiots 1,5%/yr fee. Inflows into other funds seem to offset the dismantling of GBTC, watch their AUM closely.

jee....IF your investment is either 50% over or under NAV (both happened to GBTC in 2015-2023), how important was that 2% fee?
GBTC had a SPECTACULAR return since 2015 in fiat only accounts..nothing else was even close.
GBTC is up 13056% since Sept 28, 2015, with NVDA up 8796%
Bitcoin did better, of course, but you couldn't have held it in tax advantageous accounts, unless you used some specialized IRAs that have VERY high fees per tx.
That said, of course, in a LONG run you would lose a bit more in GBTC to fees now as there are less expensive options available.
Anyone switching from GBTC to other funds needs to see what those other funds are trading at in relation to their NAV: not an advice..this is what I plan to do.
This and see which ETFs would offer options; among those, GBTC, IBIT and FBTC probably will.
My bitcoin is practically not for trading, but I have no such qualms about ETFs.
239  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2024, 10:54:31 PM
Well, 5% is NOT a drop in the ocean....you remind me of my students who think that 5% of a grade is NOTHING, when it is exactly what it is, 5%.

For fun, there are approximately 2.664X10^25 drops in the ocean (https://www.quora.com/How-many-drops-of-water-make-up-the-sea) while ETFs volume is 5 "drops" in a 100 "drops" (about 5ml or about a teaspoon).

For a supposedly "numbers guy" you threw these comparisons around with a bit too much ease, but don't take it as a criticism..I understand what you meant, emotionally, but let's stick to numbers, OK? Peace.

Seriously?! It's a phrase that means "insignificant" as opposed to literally a drop in an ocean, which would be miniscual, quite obviously as it's a metaphor that's not meant literally. Maybe this is a British phrase or something? Can't believe I feel the need to have to do this for something so trivial, but here are dictionary definitions of the phrase for you (spoiler; it has nothing to do 2.664X10^25 drops):

Quote from: Collins Dictionary
If you say that something is a drop in the ocean, you mean that it is a very small amount which is unimportant compared to the cost of other things or is so small that it has very little effect on something.

Quote from: Merriam-webster
an amount that is so small that it does not make an important difference or have much effect

So yes, when we are talking about 5% of volume, I consider it a very small amount. Others may just consider it a small amount, but I'd consider it very small. To me it's the equivalent of a strong wind when driving down the highway/motorway at 70mph/110kmh (en/us context). It's not enough to take you of course 99% of the time, as it's only about 5% of the force in play, but it does mean you have to adjust for it; that analogy you're welcome to take literally. My point was more to whoever said that Bitcoin had "become TradFi". Whereas actually it's 95% not TradFi, and won't be, until ETF volume is at least 51%.

If i had a "drop in the ocean" 5% of all bitcoins or even 5% of today's $ flow from just ETFs or bitcoin, it would not be something insignificant:

5% of all btc-1.05 mil btc or $48.3 bil $$
5% of all bitcoin flow today was $ 3.6 bil (before, now it is an even higher number of ~7%)

Is this nothing for you?
Gee, man, for myself, those numbers are significant.
I am not even sure what is the point of this non-quantitative conversation....maybe i just don't want to call something that has some value to be called insignificant.
240  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2024, 09:33:10 PM
Long time no post. Came to see if anyone else was selling this news event, guess I'm not the only one. Felt comfortable with a decent sell at $48K. Now will wait for pull-back. Still think we could see $30K within next few months as below $40K there isn't a lot to keep us at higher levels. No doubt ETF will help in the long-run, but that will take a few months imo, rather than a few weeks.

Already the 4hr candle is looking bearish and sellers clearly taking advantage of the "sell the launch" opportunity. Let's be honest 2023 was a good year with +150%, now all that's needed is for price to cool off and balance out. It's ironic as $48.5K was the 0.618 retracement level I had talked about hitting for a long-time, even if it took until 2024 to get there as opposed to 2023 as initially anticipated.

You can consider my return and post as a local top signal Cheesy

Could be, but not by as much as you are suggesting, imho.

Well no, not really. It's been well documented in the media and such that this could be an "implosion of new money into Bitcoin" or a "buy the rumour sell the news" type event. So far, I'd say it's the latter, but only time will tell. To me it's more the fact Bitcoin has reached my minimum target for a retracement from ATH to bear market low. It's just a "concidence" it occurred on the day of the ETF launch. Ie, not a coincidence at all.

Even with no ETF launch I'd be taking profits at current levels, because it feels eerily similar to summer 2019 parabolic run, at very similar levels as it were. Even if not I'm anticipating any sort of black swan event, a 35% to 50% correction feel due, much like in 2020 even before the covid crash, ie from $14K to $7K. In this case a think a milder (by %) pull-back to around $30K is in order.

Not gonna lie though, the trend is still bullish, even with current rejection on lower time-frames. It's more the red flags on the chart that's causing me to lose faith in continued upside right now. To me it's the same as $12.8K in 2019, so sure price could go a bit higher in the short-term, but notably anything above $12K back then was a solid selling opportunity. At least until price returned to $7K.

this is not summer of 2019. this is 2016 pre 1/2ing



Sure, price wicks down -40% to $30K rather than $25K, otherwise closing weekly candle around $35K (-27%). No arguments there. 0.618 fib retracement painted the same picture.


Now that i have time to post a longer argument...here it goes:

Now, bitcoin ETF is one of the tradfi assets.
Tradfi asset in a "bull market' is not supposed to decline more than 20% 9and maintain such market). Of course, i know that bitcoin in 2017 and 2021 bull market had much greater local declines, apart from 50% decline in the middle of 2021.
If we plot 20% decline from ~46K (which was the price before the approval), then it s"should not" go below $36.8K
If you count from intraday high of ~48K (but we probably shouldn't), then $38.4K.
We shall see it this prediction would hold.

Bitcoin doesn't care about no TradFi. If you're already open to the idea of mid thirties than we're not that different. My estimate is somewhere between $25K to $35K.

If you are right regarding a local top Cramer would be too..  And, out of experience, that's extremely hard to swallow....

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Well, 5% is NOT a drop in the ocean....you remind me of my students who think that 5% of a grade is NOTHING, when it is exactly what it is, 5%.

For fun, there are approximately 2.664X10^25 drops in the ocean (https://www.quora.com/How-many-drops-of-water-make-up-the-sea) while ETFs volume is 5 "drops" in a 100 "drops" (about 5ml or about a teaspoon).

For a supposedly "numbers guy" you threw these comparisons around with a bit too much ease, but don't take it as a criticism..I understand what you meant, emotionally, but let's stick to numbers, OK? Peace.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 [12] 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 ... 513 »
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!