The number of non-zero bitcoin addresses and coins in them keeps increasing throughout this bear (i posted the link here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg60504546#msg60504546), which makes me think that it is a fake-out engineered by the Wall street to bankrupt early lending firms (Blockfi, celsius, Voyager) and replace them with THEMSELVES with people like SBF being in kahoots with the banks, most likely. The fact that BIS now allows 1% of funds in banks total assets being bitcoin and etc. points to this dynamic as well. Conclusion: It was all totally FAKE (at least as far as 67.6-69K top is concerned) and very similar to how they pushed Internet stocks deep down in 2001-2002 to take the major positions in them at a deep discount. |
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lower bottom or not, I think of a major bounce in the next 2-8 wk, maybe even into September.
SP500 to 4300 (at least)
btc to above 28-29K (at least)
next couple of days are less clear, though.
This bear market is different and even more unpredictable than usual. For the moment it looks like any 5% increase is followed by a 15% drop. Nothing has changed since the last ATH. And this can only be explained by a massive BTCictoin spending as collateral to avoid liquidation and insolvency. Nobody knows if in the next days another fund will explode with 10K+ BTCitcoins on fire sell. For that reason most of the investors either lost interest or wait at the sidelines for the dust to settle. The so called institutional investors are hard to attract and even harder to keep when the price is 50%+ below their purchase price. Even if there is a disbelief rally to 35K+ in the coming weeks, the remaining institutional investors will sell at break even and some of the hodlers will sell something, knowing that a revisit to 20K is to be expected. If the pattern of the previous cycles is kept, the average price will gradually increase to 3x from the bottom until the end of 2024. Examples: 10K->30K, 15K->45K, 17.5->52.5K. And if there is a new ATH in 2025, it might be around only 2x from the last, i.e. 140K. This is what I think, but I might be awfully wrong in both directions, like sub 10K bottom and no new ATH in 2025, or the other extreme - a new ATH beyond 300K. Based of the previous cycle, the increase from the bottom was 3K end of 2018 till 14K in june 2019, so almost x5 not x3. yes, but (14/3.1)X 17.6 would be 79.5, an ATH, while in 2019 we went to roughly 70% of prior ATH. 70% of 67566 is 47.3K, a very possible number that already figured multiple times in prior discussions. I just don't want to talk about it as a high probability target mid term. If we get there, it would be awesome, sure. So 69k -> 17.6K -> 47K -> final bottom 9/10K -> new ATH 140K ?   Or 69 to 17.6 to 47 to 21.5K, then to 175K. 21.5 is based on 3.8K/3.1K prior double bottom ratio. 175K is based on roughly 10X from the bottom (it would be 140k if we bottom at 14K). rational: we seem to have diminishing series of % growth from the bottom. The last one was roughly 22X and the numbers before were 113X and 580X (in reverse order). Of course, 10X is optimistic. The exact series would suggest just ~4.4X, but then it would be "just" 77.5K. I dismiss that (4.4X) because I think that "natural" progression of btc was affected downwards by the chinese move, hence next cycle might compensate upwards. |
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This shows that the bear market is caused solely by "institutional size traders": https://u.today/bitcoin-ethereum-and-altcoins-present-signs-of-incoming-price-turnaround-heres-whenwe have 3.3 mil small holders with more than 0.1 btc. Total holdings of 0-1btc wallets is 6% and these holdings kept growing through almost all bear markets (with a small spike and decline in 2017) All we need is to have just 10-15 times more small holders and bitcoin might reach a much higher plateau. 'smart" funds would have to pay through the nose to get some. |
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FUN FACT: On this day 10 years ago, #Bitcoin was $15.40.
Bitcoin expansion was similar to Universe inflation: very rapid initially, much slower later. Example: btc "was" about 0.003 when Laslo purchased 2 pizzas for 10000 btc in 2010. From 2010 to 2012 ($15.4) was a 5133X price expansion From 2012 to 2022 (now) was "only" a 1240X expansion in five time longer period (10 years). projecting: ~300X price expansion in 50 years or $5.73mil by 2072. Quite doable. |
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lower bottom or not, I think of a major bounce in the next 2-8 wk, maybe even into September.
SP500 to 4300 (at least)
btc to above 28-29K (at least)
next couple of days are less clear, though.
This bear market is different and even more unpredictable than usual. For the moment it looks like any 5% increase is followed by a 15% drop. Nothing has changed since the last ATH. And this can only be explained by a massive BTCictoin spending as collateral to avoid liquidation and insolvency. Nobody knows if in the next days another fund will explode with 10K+ BTCitcoins on fire sell. For that reason most of the investors either lost interest or wait at the sidelines for the dust to settle. The so called institutional investors are hard to attract and even harder to keep when the price is 50%+ below their purchase price. Even if there is a disbelief rally to 35K+ in the coming weeks, the remaining institutional investors will sell at break even and some of the hodlers will sell something, knowing that a revisit to 20K is to be expected. If the pattern of the previous cycles is kept, the average price will gradually increase to 3x from the bottom until the end of 2024. Examples: 10K->30K, 15K->45K, 17.5->52.5K. And if there is a new ATH in 2025, it might be around only 2x from the last, i.e. 140K. This is what I think, but I might be awfully wrong in both directions, like sub 10K bottom and no new ATH in 2025, or the other extreme - a new ATH beyond 300K. Based of the previous cycle, the increase from the bottom was 3K end of 2018 till 14K in june 2019, so almost x5 not x3. yes, but (14/3.1)X 17.6 would be 79.5, an ATH, while in 2019 we went to roughly 70% of prior ATH. 70% of 67566 is 47.3K, a very possible number that already figured multiple times in prior discussions. I just don't want to talk about it as a high probability target mid term. If we get there, it would be awesome, sure. |
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I'll have one of those 449% up months please
I would take the second best 172% too. let's go! |
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damn it Buddy, this is not Dec 2017 ... so........ who sold at the top? Oh dear... I just double posted and quoted myself. Nully is rubbing off on me. My apologies. I'll try to keep my post less than 3 pages and 10 links...  I sold a good amount in the fall over 60k. a baller move...put you into talented trader territory (together with @LFC). |
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lower bottom or not, I think of a major bounce in the next 2-8 wk, maybe even into September.
SP500 to 4300 (at least)
btc to above 28-29K (at least)
next couple of days are less clear, though.
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Sunday haiku count
on Saturday night, perhaps
am I in a dream?
#haiku
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old (used) cars would dramatically increase in price, perhaps. |
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another one, another one...bites the dust.
dropping like flies...hopefully, we are close the end than to a beginning with those entities.
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Damn bear markets are long & boring. The only positive is these are the times that anybody with a brain lays the foundations for massive future success & wealth by buying. It’s quite surreal isn’t it, the way that most of us think compared to the average pleb in life. In a raging bull market lots of us are selling, confirming a comfortable life for us & our families, putting cash aside to buy back at a big discount when the bear market comes.
So many idiots buy during the bullish times & sell during times like this. It must be part of the brain where we are wired differently, our way of thinking. What kind of a moron is selling at these prices? Seemingly quite a lot judging by the price. Some people are just ngmi.
Any way, looking forward to 2024 & 2025, all the memes & happiness in this thread. {insert Ghana’s dancing pallbearer's gif).
Keep buying brothers of the wall. I do not want to see any mindrusting here, that’s an order!
I like the spirit, but timing is an issue re "in a raging bull market lots of us are selling". It's a pure guess on when you want to sell once it goes over previous ATH, I assume. Immediately? Upon 2X from prior ATH? 3X?....not an easy answer. You sold and won (this time), but if it went to, say, 180K, the decision to sell at 60 wouldn't be so smart, right? Or maybe one shoud activate a steady small sell orders upon reaching some number and stick to it? All I am saying is that the NEXT time it could be quite different (or not). Now, when is a good time to buy? many bought at 50, 40, 30, now 20K. Was it a good buy at, say, 30K? Very well may be....in 2-4 years or so. Personally, I did not sell any bitcoin at 60 to current, perhaps foolishly, albeit I took heavy profits in something else, so the cycle was not without profits. I did take some profits in btc too early in 2017, so, maybe this affected my hesitation of selling above 60K, perhaps. Re 'morons' who are selling....a whole gamut of those: late retail, leveraged a-holes, hedge funds who "have" to sell, etc. In fact, i think that some major long term holders sold between 20K and 17.5K. Why? because bitcoin NEVER dropped below prior ATH before. When something new happened, they took notice. Besides, some whale who bought at $20 does not really care of the price difference between 20 and 60K, he still made 1000X (not 3000X, sure).The idea that goes through their head is probably this one: IF btc went below prior ATH and is scraping just below 200 week MA, what else "new" it can do? Not relevant for me because I decided to play this one as long as I can while being mentally prepared for a low probability of even zero. It would be sad, but another experience of the gestalt. no mindtrusting, sure. |
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Next month(s) are critical ? Next 24 years are critical. not for everybody... a funny thought occurred (had a bit to drink): Warren Buffett putting half of his 96bil inheritance to buy btc, just for kicks and giggles to rile EVERYONE. I wish someone with a big fortune plays this "practical joke". I realize that WB won't do it...he is too "square". |
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I just hope that someone buys Celsius for $1+ resuming obligations so we can start a "real" recovery to @dragonvslinux target (which I concur with) of 47-49K.
Pronto, please.
No matter what some of you say, the bear markets are no fun.
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it feels weird...re the demise of the lending infrastructure.
remember the scary sci-fi movie with Nicholas Cage ("Knowing").
EE...he could not get what it means...finally, he gets it: everyone else
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The equation is: [Gold] divided by [S&P] = "Magical line".
I remember reading somewhere (Prechter? lol) that gold always comes back to be about 1:1 with the Dow. The last time it happened was in 1980. Gold and Dow both at 15K at some point? It's possible, I guess, but it would be a somewhat dysfunctional world, imho. Dow and bitcoin at the same price point? Very possible in the midterm. My expectation after a real bottom is a rally to 50week MA, currently around maybe 43K, but declining. From where? it is a big question and you provided excellent possibilities. Gold went to ~300, then back to ~500. Bitcoin "should" bounce harder. |
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