What do people think contributed most to Golds 20 year bear market ?
Disinflation due to digitization, cheap China (at that time) labor force, computer "revolution" (straight deflation in the prices of computers and components). Same for TVs. check out computer prices: https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2018/06/22/cost-of-a-computer-the-year-you-were-born/36156373/I remember a colleague in the early 90ies buying pre-Jobs Mac for $3.5-4K. Not limited to macs, see the reference. Memory had CRAZY prices too. |
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How long it would continue-who knows. All TA is irrelevant now, sorry, and so is trying to decide when to buy.
What about TA with less price prediction and more statistical data based on yearly MAs? Or at least my attempt of presenting it... As of the week of June 27th 2022. Using the MA Ribbon (Simple Moving Average) on the Weekly time-frame with intervals of 52 candles, starting with 52 (1 Year). 1 Year: $42,845 2 Year: $36,488 3 Year: $27,229 4 Year: $21,896 5 Year: $19,099 6 Year: $16,104 7 Year: $13,860 8 Year: $12,168 9 Year: $10,869 10 Year: $9787  I agree that no-one really knows how long this bear market will go on for and when it will end. Worst case, it could take an entire decade or two. But when it does come to price, without Bitcoin actually dying (which I think is very unlikely based on fundamentals), even a decade-long bear market imo would likely only yield $10K to $14K prices. Even if price consolidates between $10K and $20K for many years. Of course we can't compare a decade long bull market in Bitcoin to a decade long bear market in Bitcoin, because the latter has never happened. But imo you can look elsewhere to see what happens when a decade long bull market comes to an end, based on what was previously the best inflation hedge. It generally just means decades of consolidation at worst, as opposed to some 90-99% fall in price. By comparison, looking at the Gold chart using Monthly MA Ribbon (SMA) with intervals of 12 (1 Year) starting with 12 (after it's decade long bull market and 25x increase):  In summary, I think the worst (or arguably best) case scenario is a bear market based on an extended amount of time, not an extended correction of price. this is actually GREAT TA, thanks. I also thought about gold's 2 decade bear, but I thought that we would enter a long bear from a much higher price (like 300K-1mil). A valid point about long bears being less 'vertical', too. |
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The whole world is in "oh, s-t" state.
How long it would continue-who knows. All TA is irrelevant now, sorry, and so is trying to decide when to buy.
It's laughable, but sometimes I have a thought that this bitcoin price decrease is to prevent people from "escaping" either fiat OR even physically.
It's OT, but I sold some assets (not bitcoin) a couple of days ago to at least finish the major renovation project (just an old habit of finishing things that you set up to do) without a need to sell at the bottom.
I looked at various second passports and/or residencies and there is NOTHING that represents a true escape. Some Caribbean entities look cheap, but they are just placeholders. Europe is very expensive and/or defeats the purpose of "escaping".
Oh, well, here goes nothing.
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some peeps simply don't have time for a 20 year long bear market.
besides, 260/850 or more properly 260/650 (because gold was above $650 flat top only for about 7 days) is JUST 69.5 or 60% correction (with at least two bear rallies to ~77% of the flat peak, an equivalent of about 53K in btc). Super long bear with multiple 2X rallies is preferable to 80% down in just half a year (well, we only went -70% so far, to be more precise).
institutional involvement did not pan out as a value stabilizer; this, at least, is clear.
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Almost every little 'shithead' on youtube/twitter/tradingview keeps blabbering about 10K-14K bottom.
To me it says that it won't be THAT.
My preference (and it looks like the WO on average) is that the bottom was "already", but the whole cycle is messed up so much that it is difficult to be certain.
One thing is for sure: I believe in btc as a medium of exchange much more than the 'store of value' story at this point. It could change, though.
The fact that there will only ever be 21 million makes this pretty much a forgone conclusion that over time BTC is and will be a store of value it could be, eventually, but it does not feel this way if you consider the period since late 2017. No value stored vs inflation whatsoever, objectively. A negative 20% (vs inflation) vs gold's +25% vs inflation, and I dislike gold. imho, the involvement of financial institutions 'messed' bitcoin up, albeit maybe only temporarily. If financial types could pledge bitcoin en masse (and they did), then the 'store of value' and "clean collateral" stories could be affected. TL;DR a new 'story' for bitcoin is needed (or it could be the "old" story of the medium of exchange). The 'store of value' story is in deep hibernation for now. but gold is subject to vast dilution of value with discovery of new deposits of it. https://www.mining.com/web/uganda-says-exploration-results-show-it-has-31-million-tonnes-of-gold-ore/"Muyita said an estimated 320,158 tonnes of refined gold could be extracted from the 31 million tonnes of ore." quote from link If true that is more than the 205,000 mined ever see below. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/how-much-goldand the 2016 estimate of gold mined and in the ground was "About 244,000 metric tons of gold has been discovered to date (187,000 metric tons historically produced plus current underground reserves of 57,000 metric tons). Most of that gold has come from just three countries: China, Australia, and South Africa. The United States ranked fourth in gold production in 2016." google quote above, so the 244,000 world total mined and not mined yet total to go to over 500,000 mined and not mined yet. Which means about a 50% dilution of value for gold. How about that find and a second find in Africa and the asteroid they are looking at all come true in under 20 years. gold could move from a 244,000 grand total estimate to 1,000,000 total in the next ten years to twenty years. I consider gold to have more risk than BTC or Silver. Reason for silver is there is more of it so find a lot more is less likely. 1,600,000 tons of silver has been mined already. I am thinking finding 1,600,000 more tons of silver is less likely . than finding 320,000 tons of gold (just been found) so I fear gold's staying power. Do silver and BTC. But I am only talking about what I like to do. yes, sure, I am aware, good points. Perhaps this discovery being "priced in" resulted in almost no rise significantly despite the 5X increase in M1 since 2020. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SLbecause of what you posted, I am reluctant to buy gold, but was just saying that it did better than btc since 2017, but worse than btc since covid crash. |
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The image is 4.36 megs and you're limited to 2.5 - that's the problem. I changed the compression to 73% so there's no way it will look as awesome as it should... people should follow your link instead.  Awesome pic. So many stars! I wonder if all (or almost all) of these are empty worlds. Seems like a waste of space, but on the other hand, where is "magic" in the sky? Certainly, there is nothing out there that "looks" like like an advanced civilization of Kardashev scale >2.0 Normally, a civilization that is growing at 3% a year in energy consumption, should reach type 1 (from current 0.73) in 100-200 years, type 2 in a few thousand years and type 3 in a 100K-million years. Not all stars appeared at the same time. In fact there are many stars in the Milky way that are billions of years older than our Sun. If it takes "only" about a million years for a tech civilization to reach type 3 (with projects on the galaxy size) and there were MANY stars older than Sun. In fact, one paper suggests that an average star with a habitable zone is 3.3bil years OLDER than our Sun. The sad conclusion is that NO ONE has made it to be past stage 2 (at least). References: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scalehttps://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1509/1509.02832.pdf |
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Almost every little 'shithead' on youtube/twitter/tradingview keeps blabbering about 10K-14K bottom.
To me it says that it won't be THAT.
My preference (and it looks like the WO on average) is that the bottom was "already", but the whole cycle is messed up so much that it is difficult to be certain.
One thing is for sure: I believe in btc as a medium of exchange much more than the 'store of value' story at this point. It could change, though.
The fact that there will only ever be 21 million makes this pretty much a forgone conclusion that over time BTC is and will be a store of value it could be, eventually, but it does not feel this way if you consider the period since late 2017. No value stored vs inflation whatsoever, objectively. A negative 20% (vs inflation) vs gold's +25% vs inflation, and I dislike gold. imho, the involvement of financial institutions 'messed' bitcoin up, albeit maybe only temporarily. If financial types could pledge bitcoin en masse (and they did), then the 'store of value' and "clean collateral" stories could be affected. TL;DR a new 'story' for bitcoin is needed (or it could be the "old" story of the medium of exchange). The 'store of value' story is in deep hibernation for now. |
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Almost every little 'bobblehead' on youtube/twitter/tradingview keeps blabbering about 10K-14K bottom.
To me it says that it won't be THAT.
My preference (and it looks like the WO on average) is that the bottom was "already", but the whole cycle is messed up so much that it is difficult to be certain.
One thing is for sure: I believe in btc as a medium of exchange much more than the 'store of value' story at this point. It could change, though.
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Hm?
You are blaming some kinds of lens fogging for your M/c accident?
I spent quite a bit of time in my youth (and even into my middle age driving motorcycles - not so much recently, but not really opposed to the idea. and surely in some locations, driving MC/scooters can be quite practical, convenient and surely fun).. .when I was really young, fuck I was a risk taker and overall just have to say that there was some luck to get through that period without any major life-diminishing encounters with either moving or stationary objects.
By the way, I know about lenses fogging too, so I would not even have had been questioning your rendition of blame (at least in part).
I recall that frequently I would drive with my helmet visor up (especially at night.. and part of the reason did have to do with some of the fogging that would happen if I put it down), and I would just use the plastic windshield on the motorcycle as a means to block the vast majority of the road wind, and I was on a somewhat country highway and going about 50mph/80kmh.. and in some miraculous kind of a way, some kind of bug ended up hitting me between the eyes, very close to my right eye, and did not even hit the eye, but that impact was so painful and debilitating to my eyesight. It was like all of a sudden going blind but still being able to force a wee bit of eyesight (but not easy because both eyes were tearing and really wanting to close).. I was so fucking lucky that I was able to stop. .and in a kind of almost blind state in the middle of nowhere, and I did not even fall of the motorcycle.. another lucky thing that I was barely able to do and to muster enough muscle movement to accomplish.
Once I stopped, I did recover within about 5-10 minutes and I was even able to open both eyes and stop them from continuing to tear. Luck sometimes.. and surely I did not stop riding motorcycle from that, and I did not even stop putting my visor up either, but it only happened once in my many thousands of hours of overall ride time.
Shit, thought I had mentioned that, only recently have gotten the pain management under control enough o make coherent thoughts so I'll reiterate here. I was leaving the Casino ~2am following 2 SUV's around a bend when we hit a fog bank and I'm not completely sure if the visor fogged up as well as it was so instant but I went to zero visibility in a corner and had nothing to gauge where I was heading besides the taillights of the vehicle directly in front of me. I pulled in the clutch and started to brake as quickly as possible while following the taillights in front of me only to have the SUV Brake hard and veer off to the left only to notice that there was grass under the SUV instead of pavement. As I tried to follow the bike slid out from under me on the wet grass and mud not unlike a hydroplaning effect and while the bike slid off to the side into a chain link fence I hit the ground and rolled into a telephone pole. We were doing about 45 Mph. Sounds awful..and just painkillers are not the worst outcome, perhaps, all things considered. |
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@JJG...regarding holdings going up or down.
Current users is an unknown number because many have just coinbase, binance, etc accounts.
let's assume it is 100-300 mil or take an average of 200 mil.
It is much less than humans on earth by a factor of about 40X.
Therefore, it is inevitable that current holders would have to sell some btc to accommodate new users. Of course, it would occur not by edict, but naturally.
How much each current user "has" to sell (on average)?
My approximation: 21mil-2mil (still to mine, so we don't need to worry about those coins, newcomers can theoretically get all of them)=19mil coins already distributed.
19mil/7.84bil=0.0024 BTC
0.0024X40=0.097 btc
Therefore, I suggest that if you already bought or mined bitcoin and then sold at least roughly 0.1btc, it means that you already distributed enough btc for 40 users at the steady-state level (all that is needed for 40 accounts on average). Of course people could do extra, but selling 0.1btc (on average per current owner and over the last 13 years and probably the next 5-10) would do the trick of "pollination" of the newbies accounts.
This does not preclude periodically buying or mining more, of course.
The fun part is to take how much you sold already and then divide by 0.0024btc. That would equal the number of future average bitcoin accounts (of newbs) you have potentially seeded.
EDIT: Laslo "seeded" 4mil 167thou future average accounts by his 10K btc pizza buy. Such generosity!
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wouldn't that be nice? However, unless there would be a hookup between some exchange and SEC/CFTC in the next 7 days, I doubt that it would happen. In the other hand, can SEC afford yet another major lawsuit? |
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OT...relevant mostly for those from 51 yo and older. https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2022/06/22/bjsports-2021-105360interesting study and a simple test. basically, if an individual aged 51 and older can stand more than 10s on one leg, the probability of that person dying within 10 years is 5%, but if he/she can't, then the probability rises to about 30% (highly statistically significant, apparently). easy enough to check not sure what would happen if upon a bad test someone would start exercising and/or lose weight, etc. basically, it is not clear if it is a fixable situation or not. 65 years old 60 second left leg 25 seconds right leg I will practice and see if I can do 2 minutes on each excellent prognosis (based on the article data), Phil..knock on wood! |
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raises hand.
my internet sucks majorly bad and it would take months, many months, to dl from genesis. my inet is so bad and the full blockchain stored locally so important i have it backed up so many ways (raidz2, raid5, portables drives, internal drives i rotate etc, all stored in many places) it borders on ridiculous.
help me obi won musk, starlink is my only hope.
is starlink the only "space" internet? I thought that blockstream did something for bitcoiners. |
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OT...relevant mostly for those from 51 yo and older. https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2022/06/22/bjsports-2021-105360interesting study and a simple test. basically, if an individual aged 51 and older can stand more than 10s on one leg, the probability of that person dying within 10 years is 5%, but if he/she can't, then the probability rises to about 30% (highly statistically significant, apparently). easy enough to check not sure what would happen if upon a bad test someone would start exercising and/or lose weight, etc. basically, it is not clear if it is a fixable situation or not. |
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Everyone seems to expect things going 'as before', but they don't....planB fell hard for it.
I think that IF we are starting a new cycle, it could be quite different from the prior cycles.
The amount of front-running could be significant (even more than in 2019) to the point that cycles themselves might come into question.
We have to remember that it is not a true cycle, like rotation of Earth around the Sun with spin axis tilted vs the orbital plane, causing seasons.
The change in the number of coins issued after halving vs ALL coins that were mined before keeps decreasing.
The numerator in (new coins)/(already issued coins in the circulation) is smaller, hence the effect of the new halvings might be less.
At least this is what i think.
It fits the data too: 72X from the first halving to ATH in 2013, 33X from the second halving to ATH in 2017, 7.5X from the third halving to ATH in 2021.
I don't know why the last one was SO timid..the proper number (in case of linear decline) should have been 15X (for about $130K).
Either we would "compensate" for the prior timid cycle and go bananas OR we go for 2-4X from the halving price this time (as per continuing decrease in halving influence).
2X would suggest that the cycles are effectively OVER.
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If/when Bitcoin gets real privacy, I expect that it will also embrace “selective disclosure”. That would preserve irrevocable, undeniable, irrefutable blockchain information for legitimate use cases—while locking out the prying eyes of hackers, cyberstalkers, armed robbers, kidnappers seeking ransom, and commercial espionage that seeks to infer competitive business plans from financial transaction data. Isn't the blockchain information irrevocable, undeniable and irrefutable because, from the way I know it, these attributes and the confirmation that follows broadcasted transactions are the ways in which the chains are ensured of security. Speaking of selective disclosure, is that really going to be a plus to the blockchain technology? You know, the only way for transactions not getting counterfeiters is the verifiable nature of the blocks. I'm not very deep into this stuff so, if am getting it wrong at some point, am happy to be corrected. With these kidnappers, rubbers and others not knowing who is behind an address what matters to a selective disclosure? We don't want or need undetectable btc in this world. We need btc that can be hidden until you need to cash it. Without agreeing or disagreeing, what is the difference between these two apparantly contradictory statements...aka "hidden" and "undetectable". To me, "hidden" is being temporarily undetectable. Isn't it? |
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JUST IN: Bitcoin miners have borrowed $4B against their equipment - Bloomberg 😳
Bitcoin will get to $250K “by late 2022 or early 2023" says Tim Draper.
Source:https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1540723317790937090
Late 2025 Maybe, but i feel like you can only predict the price, but not the time. $250K...very possible. Time? Who knows. However, I saw a strong argument from B. Cowen that most likely price at the halving in 2024 would be around $40K. Is it too low? Maybe, but entirely within the historical precedent after a bear market. If around 40K at halving, then 250K (or 150-300K) in 2025 is doable. In 2020 bitcoin traded around 9K at the halving and ATH was 67.6K (on the daily close basis), so it is a 7.5X move. 40KX7.5=300K. Subtract for lower bump (diminishing returns) and 150K-300K should be attainable. BTW, during the current stage (bottoming), the most bounce I can see is around 47K (similar to the premature mini bull in 2019). |
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POW...POS....POG (power of gibberish).
Are those two being here to distract? Especially with all that cross-posting.
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