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I was reading yesterday a couple of papers about animal sizes and it is quite amazing how the size of the same species, apparently, changes during time: almost by a factor of 2X or more. Small size usually correlates with higher temperatures and/or stress in the environment.
I also remember seeing a medieval adult armor in some museum (the argument would be that there was a lot of stress and less nutrition, probably, back then). It looked to fit to a current teen, no more than that.
Therefore, humans might "shrink" as well going forward IF temperatures would be rising (or some stress ensues).
As far as bitcoin is concerned, I still think that we would be mildly positive in the next 3-4 wks if no sudden bankruptcies happen.
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OT: Oh look, another WEF conspiracy theory becomes reality.
People already eat snails and sea "bugs" like shrimp. They eat filter feeders like crayfish and mussels, which feed on the dirtiest, nastiest shit ever. Are land bugs that much worse though? The problem is that the food industry has an allowed "earthen" percentage for shit like cockroaches and rats and now that they are allowed a certain amount they have decided to use that for profits rather than the tolerance that was gifted to them. exactly! we probably eat some insects inadvertently, but I surely don't want to have an insect "dish". A thought occurred: if we, humans, would kill most of the 'world' at some point, the surviving species would most likely be birds. I recently found that grackles (prominent here, looking very intense) are actually fully omnivorous creatures. Seem to be quite 'smart' as well. We already eat food coloring made from insects, the food manufacturers just keep quiet about it. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43786055If you are horrified by the thought of eating insects, the bad news is that you have probably done so many, many times.
This is because one of the most widely used red food colourings - carmine - is made from crushed up bugs.
The insects used to make carmine are called cochineal, and are native to Latin America where they live on cacti.
Now farmed mainly in Peru, millions of the tiny insects are harvested every year to produce the colouring.
A staple of the global food industry, carmine is added to everything from yoghurts and ice creams, to fruit pies, soft drinks, cupcakes and donuts.
It is also used extensively in the cosmetics industry and is found in many lipsticks. yick, Thanks! In my mind it is somehow different from getting a dish made of crickets, though. Objectively, not much difference, perhaps. |
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OT: Oh look, another WEF conspiracy theory becomes reality.
People already eat snails and sea "bugs" like shrimp. They eat filter feeders like crayfish and mussels, which feed on the dirtiest, nastiest shit ever. Are land bugs that much worse though? The problem is that the food industry has an allowed "earthen" percentage for shit like cockroaches and rats and now that they are allowed a certain amount they have decided to use that for profits rather than the tolerance that was gifted to them. exactly! we probably eat some insects inadvertently, but I surely don't want to have an insect "dish". A thought occurred: if we, humans, would kill most of the 'world' at some point, the surviving species would most likely be birds. I recently found that grackles (prominent here, looking very intense) are actually fully omnivorous creatures. Seem to be quite 'smart' as well. |
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How is this relevant to the thread at all? more than endless bloviation from certain individuals (or entities). |
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... You know, one of the main reasons why mindrust pulled out was greed. He aimed at some high amount of $ per BTC, he said he would never sell below that. When he was about x10 from his entry price he feared to lose more, so he sold everything but 1 BTC (IIRC, which i often doubt, hence my meaningful nickname). This sets you apart from mindrust, though, only if the (true) motivation for your leveraged long position wasn't greed. Some derivatives and tools of the financial markets are tempting because powerful if used successfully, but i think Satoshi was very much against them, as parts of the system, so he propagated HODL. This is what you should have done, but it's hard to do follow advice if you only trust in your own judgement. In reality, we are so weak and full of error... Good luck and act accordingly  I agree, mindrust's goal was always to increase his fiat stash and that is the trap he fell into. He fell for the astrology of Masterluc and thought he could rebuy at $1500 IIRC. He over exposed himself with his buy gamble (effective long) and was terrified of losing fiat value. He forgot 1 BTC = 1 BTC and for that he will always be a cautioning tale. I agree. Additionally, having some of your stash on exchanges during stress can cause an ''itchy fingers" phenomenon. It happened to me in 2017, but I sold a small fraction (was listening to Vinny Lingham too much) during the fork debacle. |
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If you rewind the clock back to 2014 when the monthly RSI dipped below 20 a huge dump followed right afterwards and took us around 600 days to fully recover from it, Same thing happend in 2018 (when people also used to say that this time its different) a devastating crash happend again when the RSI crossed 20 (took us another 400 ish days for the price to recover).  So fast forward today and the RSI dipped below 20 again for the monthly so its likely that this temporary pump we see happening atm doesn't mean much and the true bottom is still not yet reached (maybe? what do i know). Anything could happen, but where is the prerequisite exponential move (in 2021) that preceded both 2014 and 2018? Nowhere. |
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While picking up Sats on these dips, here's a little impression of the recent night skies. (180 seconds exposure at 14mm)  good night  Awesome, thanks. What is out there in the Milky Way? Will we ever get to the stars? I hope so in the next 200 years or so, but there is a huge chasm. Before stars we would be probably have asteroid mining and gold would become a typical house decoration metal. In fact, we would probably have a new iron (or metals in general) age. Less oil, probably, but plenty of metals. |
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After this bear market, I cannot see bitcoin repeating 80+% drops ad nauseaum.
As I posted before, most likely this one could be one of the most brutal bear, followed by a 20 year positive super-cycle.
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so the teens are left behind do we leave the twenties by monday and enter the thirties
or do we visit st the teens again by next weekend?
it depends on what stonks would do. I expect (at some point) a 20-25% rally in SP500. 20% rally in Sp500 is 40-50% rally minimally in bitcoin, so 17.5X(1.4 or 1.5)=24.5-26K (at least) A bear rally, though. |
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M.Saylor makes a list of what exacerbates bitcoin downside (and what to do to improve): https://youtu.be/ckl08Rtq9zA?t=34141. wash sale nonexistence for bitcoin. I agree that it is a downer even, though, I (and many others) use it at least sometimes. 2. high leverage on exchanges. 3. cryptotokens-19 thou unregistered securities. Thinks 6-10 are NOT securities. 4. crypto hedge funds are wildcat banks with high leverage. 5. ignorance..don't use crypto and bitcoin interchangeably. 6. lack of a true stable coin...does not like tether...likes circle and paxos better. wants daily reports of assets. 7. lack of a spot etf. 8. no clear guidance from agencies. 9. need more development of Lightning...which is clearly forthcoming. "None of this would be fixed in 3mo, but in 10 years, 80% would be". brilliant.... |
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I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.
If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.
My only satisfaction would be that if these whales, after dropping the price so much, cause the exchange they are using to fail and they lose all their coins.
Yes, I don't see what's a big deal so far. At least half of this decline is due to liquidations of some overextended hedge funds and weird companies. To me it looks like hedgies went for an outsize returns and got overextended. Many always point out that 'institutional' involvement cuts both ways...and it did. Now we are just waiting for the equilibrium. It's those longs on Bitfinex that makes me think something is up, the only reason for so many futures longs is so you can take profit without driving the spot market up. Maybe its just the liquidations, but how many coins do these pricks have. must of been a million dumped by now. I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.
If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.
Don't you remember early 2015 when it crashed from $300 to $150 in about half a day? That was worse than this, and it didn't put people off. By about November 2015 it was back up to $500. I wasn't monitoring the price as much back then, would only check couple times a week at most, so I only saw that after it had happened. Yes it was worse in percentages, but there were far less people involved back then, where as now a lot more normies got in. I don't know if it will scar as bad honestly, but it's something I'm thinking about in terms of when it comes to recovery vs say the stock market recovery. some say that stock market "ought" to drop 70% as well, not sure if it will happen or not, it's certainly possible, especially in inflation-adjusted terms. The chances of a %70 stock crash in the next 2 weeks are smaller then I can see. of course not...who was talking about 2 weeks? maybe 1-2 years. |
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I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.
If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.
My only satisfaction would be that if these whales, after dropping the price so much, cause the exchange they are using to fail and they lose all their coins.
Yes, I don't see what's a big deal so far. At least half of this decline is due to liquidations of some overextended hedge funds and weird companies. To me it looks like hedgies went for an outsize returns and got overextended. Many always point out that 'institutional' involvement cuts both ways...and it did. Now we are just waiting for the equilibrium. It's those longs on Bitfinex that makes me think something is up, the only reason for so many futures longs is so you can take profit without driving the spot market up. Maybe its just the liquidations, but how many coins do these pricks have. must of been a million dumped by now. I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.
If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.
Don't you remember early 2015 when it crashed from $300 to $150 in about half a day? That was worse than this, and it didn't put people off. By about November 2015 it was back up to $500. I wasn't monitoring the price as much back then, would only check couple times a week at most, so I only saw that after it had happened. Yes it was worse in percentages, but there were far less people involved back then, where as now a lot more normies got in. I don't know if it will scar as bad honestly, but it's something I'm thinking about in terms of when it comes to recovery vs say the stock market recovery. some say that stock market "ought" to drop 70% as well, not sure if it will happen or not, it's certainly possible, especially in inflation-adjusted terms. |
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I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.
If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.
My only satisfaction would be that if these whales, after dropping the price so much, cause the exchange they are using to fail and they lose all their coins.
Yes, I don't see what's a big deal so far. At least half of this decline is due to liquidations of some overextended hedge funds and weird companies. To me it looks like hedgies went for an outsize returns and got overextended. Many always point out that 'institutional' involvement cuts both ways...and it did. Now we are just waiting for the equilibrium. |
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Temp relief rally only, many people will be selling even this small insignificant bounce. writing this in the hope that I'm very wrong.
"Big things have small beginnings." as per Laurence of Arabia (recited by android David in Prometheus). |
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19k?
of note: stable coins are about 50% of btc value rn.
Is this the highest % they have ever been?
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imho, at some point part of the oil money from ME would surge into btc.
It makes so much sense to do it right now while they still have gigantic profits.
That Nexo's Trenchev (with a 'strange' claim of 100K in 12 mo) might be on to something that we are not yet aware of.
js
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