Bitcoin doesn't care about no TradFi. If you're already open to the idea of mid thirties than we're not that different. My estimate is somewhere between $25K to $35K.
Really...then why why make an ETF? Today money flows: bitcoin on exchanges: 61 bil bitcoin on tradfi: 3.2 bil So...currently 5% of the flows in btc are ETFs-driven. This number will probably increase with time. |
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OT: A funny thought about a s-tcoin...imagine e--reum classic getting an ETF (because it is a POW commodity) before the VB coin.
VB and Jeff Lubin would faint...btw, markets think that it might be possible judging by the respective price action today.
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Long time no post. Came to see if anyone else was selling this news event, guess I'm not the only one. Felt comfortable with a decent sell at $48K. Now will wait for pull-back. Still think we could see $30K within next few months as below $40K there isn't a lot to keep us at higher levels. No doubt ETF will help in the long-run, but that will take a few months imo, rather than a few weeks. Already the 4hr candle is looking bearish and sellers clearly taking advantage of the "sell the launch" opportunity. Let's be honest 2023 was a good year with +150%, now all that's needed is for price to cool off and balance out. It's ironic as $48.5K was the 0.618 retracement level I had talked about hitting for a long-time, even if it took until 2024 to get there as opposed to 2023 as initially anticipated. You can consider my return and post as a local top signal  Now that I have time to post a longer argument...here it goes: Bitcoin ETF is now one of the tradfi assets. Tradfi asset in a "bull market" is not supposed to decline more than 20% and maintain such market. Of course, I know that bitcoin in 2017 and 2021 bull market had much greater local declines (30-40%), apart from even a higher % decline (~50%) in the middle of 2021. Accordingly, if we plot 20% decline from ~46K (which was the price before the approval), then it "should not" go below $36.8K If you count from the intraday high of ~48K (but we probably shouldn't), then $38.4K. We shall see it this prediction would hold. EDIT: @dragonvslinux says ~30K and I say no less than $36K as long as this bull market stays a bull market. That's a prediction. |
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Long time no post. Came to see if anyone else was selling this news event, guess I'm not the only one. Felt comfortable with a decent sell at $48K. Now will wait for pull-back. Still think we could see $30K within next few months as below $40K there isn't a lot to keep us at higher levels. No doubt ETF will help in the long-run, but that will take a few months imo, rather than a few weeks. Already the 4hr candle is looking bearish and sellers clearly taking advantage of the "sell the launch" opportunity. Let's be honest 2023 was a good year with +150%, now all that's needed is for price to cool off and balance out. It's ironic as $48.5K was the 0.618 retracement level I had talked about hitting for a long-time, even if it took until 2024 to get there as opposed to 2023 as initially anticipated. You can consider my return and post as a local top signal Could be, but not by as much as you are suggesting, imho. |
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By volume IBIT>FBTC>ARKB with the rest being smaller.
Interestingly, some are declining even as btc pumps.
The initial "seed" is getting their money back, probably.
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Well times have changed from 2017 when I was furiously refreshing the page in the airport only to find Winklevoss ETF denial. Over the coming years the funds for these ETFs will slowly grow as bitcoin supply rate dwindles. Gary will be a sniveling footnote. And the US debt will exceed 100 trillion greenbacks. This whole thing feels like the promotion at work that comes a bit late. Nice, we get legacy onramps, but what took so damn long  yea, I feel that Winkelvoss twins were wronged in this. This should have been approved at least in 2020 if not 2017. |
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of note..at 4pm bitcoin was $45385, which indicates GBTC NAV at $40.45.
GBTC closing price $40.50...the discount is gone...it could move to a premium in the next day or two, imho.
IMHO, Coinbase will push trading in s-tcoins because bitcoin trading on Coinbase would probably diminish now, although if ETF sponsors would source btc on Coinbase, maybe it would even increase, not sure which way it would go.
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Apparently the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF is accepted on the SEC website Still waiting for official confirmation.  X...and bitcoin promptly added a thou (so far). The most recent fee structure...they keep changing those : https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/10/the-spot-bitcoin-etf-heres-what-happens-when-it-starts-trading.htmlBitwise (BITB) 0.0% (after first six months: 0.2%)
ARK Invest/21Shares (ARKB): 0.0% (after first six months: 0.21%)
Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) 0.0% (after first six months: 0.39%)
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) 0.12% (after first 12 months: 0.25%)
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) 0.25%
Franklin Bitcoin ETF (EZBC) 0.29%
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC) 0% (after July 31, 2024, 0.25%)
WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust (BTCW) 0.0% (after first six months 0.3%)
Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (BRRR) 0.0% (after three months 0.49%)
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) 1.5%
Hashdex Bitcoin (DEFI) 0.9% Bitwise is "Satoshi sends his regards" ad and lined up a $200mil seed. VanEck has a cool ticker and "Born to bitcoin" ad. Prepare for a marketing blitz. |
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Is there a valid reason an "independent" government agency needs to wait until the last second of a deadline to make a decision?
That's their modus operandi around here...I have seen it all the time with some other agencies as well, especially FDA. |
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If the SEC can't even use two factor authentication on X, how can they possibly be in charge of these important financial decisions?
Folks 65 and up are often considered unemployable due to lack of skills and mental/physical deterioration. They often even have thier driver's license suspended. Meanwhile these are the folks running our government... Some younger than 65 people are often considered unemployable due to lack of skills too... |
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I gotta say, the SEC causing a mass liquidation event right before announcing their decision on the ETF approval is something I didn’t see coming but is intriguing nonetheless. I wonder if crypto traders that got liquidated have a case against the SEC for their “hacked” tweet and also if it was a hack at all.
This puts SEC in a pickle. If they planned to approve, then they would look somewhat strange if they approve in 24 hr after denying the "leak" today. Sometimes important information leaks, but typically markets just go with it (I distinctly remember some rate decisions being leaked early). Maybe I am just making a mountain out of the molehill and everything would go as expected tomorrow... |
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Some dude on the tube just said that he expects ETFs trade at premium to bitcoin at first, maybe as much as 8%. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUG1iZtcCmoIf so, then GBTC NAV at the closing (with btc at $45065 at 4m) was theoretically $40.16, but the last trade was at $39, which is "just" 2.9% discount to NAV and it "ought" to jump 3-11% at the start of trading (add or subtract to this the price change of btc). Several conclusions: 1. If GBTC (or other ETFs, like the Swedish one) will start trading at the premium, I will think of dumping GBTC in my nontaxable ROTH accounts, collecting premium and buying "straight" btc with the proceeds. The risk is that the market can move away from me while I transfer the funds between the accounts, darn it! 2. One can only imagine the amount of fleecing retail investor would endure if they have to pay 8% (or more) premium to the underlying. GBTC used to have up to 40% premium at one point. 3. I can imagine the trade evolving, like buying bitcoin while shorting the etf as premium would eventually disappear. None of it is an investment advice, just some thoughts. |
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 Chopper is getting out of the dark slowly but steadily well my 47075 ladder up sold next one is set for 49432 I don't want to judge, but as @jjg says... surely...the values in the ladder don't have to stay fixed and could/should be adjusted from time to time. That said, it could be a good move (or not), we shall see. |
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OT Beckenbauer...RIP, at 78. Won World Cup (in football, known in US as soccer) in 1974, I believe.
Once (in a 1970 WC semifinal against Italy) he played with a broken collar bone put on his side with a duck tape (they ran out of subs).
Position: first a midfielder, then a sweeper/libero/attacking defender
Nickname Der Kaiser (The Emperor).
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All bitcoin ETF fees in one place: https://www.reuters.com/technology/companies-disclose-expected-fees-spot-bitcoin-etfs-ahead-sec-decision-2024-01-08/from 0 (for 6 mo), then many 0.24-0.39%, Grayscle is a current oulier at 1.5%. I guess they will see if they would be able to keep most of their funds. Tickers: Grayscale-GBTC (same) Ark/21shares-ARKB Blackrock- IBIT (not IBTC-that was the initial intent, but replaced later), fee 0.3%, but no fee for the first 12 mo-choice #2 for me. Bitwise-BITB (these are the guys who pretend to know Satoshi, lol) vanEck-HODL (love it! plus they give 5% to bitcoin developers and have a 0.25% fee-a potential winner for me, depending on whether they would get volume) Fidelity (Wise origin)-FBTC Valkyrie-BRRR (lol) the rest: hashdex is DEFI, not sure if the name/ticker is even relevant. EDIT...went over 10K posts...jeee. EDIT2...everything (tickers, fees, sponsors) in one place: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1744352669362250076/photo/1 |
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BTC ETF fees  A fee "war"...nice. Since most came down to 0.25%-0.3% the next step in differentiation would be who would accumulate the assets faster and also, who would have OPTIONS established for their product first. IMHO, GBTC would slowly bleed assets as their fee is the highest by a lot. |
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You can see how liquidity is draining from alts (many are down 10-20% in 24hr), almost like a tide is going out before a huge bitcoin wave will hit ashore. My body is ready... I think |
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Nice...tell us more about a "supercomputer" Going from keys on Wednesday to paying off mortgage at 130K...wow. It totally makes sense to pay off a 6-7% mortgage, though..as long as it's only a portion (or a small portion) of your bitcoin. <snip> The pc will be with the latest components, like cpu intel 14900kf, 192G RAM, 3SSD, Nvidia 4090, water cooled case. The funny part is that the girl from the bank asked a lot of stupid questions for approval of the loan, like "for what will you use the computer?". I said "For checking my email." This answer obviously didn't satisfy her and she went on and on, and I was giving the most ridiculous answers I could figure out.  Nice! 4090 is a 'beast" of a card. EDIT: Imho, the proper answer to the question "What you will be using the computer for? " is: "For computing/computations" . |
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