I am not going to deny large corrections to be both possible, but to have decently high odds of happening. It is also quite possible that BTC prices will settle in the range of $120k to $180k in 2024. and then perhaps (or likely) go higher in 2025, so just between now and $180k, I surely expect some decently-sized corrections, including at least a couple 30% or more that might even get in the 50% plus levels.... but they are still not seeming too likely prior to our at least getting through noman's land, and generally (and historically) speaking once getting all the way through noman's land, it does not tend to be likely to correct all the way back through it.. so call me a sceptic on any theories expecting those levels of corrections, even though they could happen.
It seems to me that $220k is very likely to be crossed by 2024, unless the market crashes and it doesn't last long. But $300k seems to be calling. I am more in a @JJG price range ($140-150K) for 2024 and maybe even 2025, although MSTR converts suggest at least a 50% move up from 62 (yesterday close) to about 90K (at breakeven). However, I was looking at ledgerx options pricing a couple of days ago and calls on 100K btc in 3.5 mo were "just" $4-7K with "only" 70% volatility, so it seems that options traders don't think that we are going vertical anytime soon. |
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Now that we've made a new ATH, let's all take a moment to...bash on Jim Cramer (again) about bitcoin. Because I just love to bash on that fkn idiot. Anyhoo, back around 2022, I distinctly remember watching a CNBC video with ol' Jimbo when Bitcoin was at the last bottom. The interviewer asked Cramer when he thought Bitcoin would make a new ATH. His answer? "Oh, at least another decade..if not more. Let's just say a really loooong time from now." Fuck. That. Guy.  Just a PSA reminder to never, ever listen to the MSM talking heads wrt the Bitcoin market. Oh, we should listen...a "reverse" Cramer is even an ETF, lol ...every single time, they put their heads together to promote something, it almost always tanks shortly thereafter. |
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I don't think that average mining cost is 50K/btc right now.
This says that it is 63K, which seems too high. Philip? |
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The righteousness of this correction (in my mind) is disturbed by a mental image of Gareth Soloway being pleased by this.
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New poll required!
All those who chose 48k first, turn in your WO cards on the way out.
I did not know about the card, but i knew about the secret handshake, haha. |
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haha..mine is more like "Hey...bitcoin is at 67K...In our kitchen remodel, how much do you want us to spend [not doing it is not even up for a discussion, really]?". Different needs, I guess. Ah..what should I say? I said nothing so far, but bought two packages of ramen as a hint  |
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Happy for the price and what it means for WO, but don't like the market as a whole.
Some stupid coins are up multiple billions to the extent of 200-300% in the last 7 days.
I think that we are a few days at most until a breakdown, but hard to say from what price...very well may be from 75-85K.
Sorry, I don't buy a story about a limited supply as a cause right now (eventually, after the halving, it will be)...most of this is just feverish speculation, especially in the "other" names.
Feels like either fall of 1997 or 1998 or March of 2000. I think, most likely not like 2000 and it would be a short-lived break down for a mo or two.
Watch NVDA like a hawk.
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Maybe ATH this week or even today. I wanna reward my self for holding 11 years. But I don’t know what to even buy lol.
13+ years here, seems it has reached 100k AUD just now, it is always somewhat stressful regardless of whether it goes up or down. Damn 13 years. I got in at $150 but only with a little fiat. The biggest portion bought at $800-900 right before the mtgox disaster. Definitely always stressful. But less and less every cycle. Yeah I was just before then too. Shaved a little off over the years to get myself comfortable but not financially free. Holding now because I don't need the money but can't say I'm not excited about the gains  . All the money doesn’t feel real. It makes excited. But no idea what to do with it and can’t imagine ever cashing out. It certainly does, but so is the rest of our existence, at least sometimes. |
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The quote close to the end (from a mathematician who has proven that market is "not efficient"): "essentially, you can beat the market if you have large computational resources, etc." Ahem...I wonder what Google, Microsoft, Nvidia and OpenAI are doing with this? Imho, whatever inefficiencies they find, they would extract it from the everyday mom and pop investors who "blindly" invest in indices, mostly. I know that the Medallion fund (Simons) did turn it's attention to bitcoin at some point a few years ago. |
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Several knowledgeable commentators (Novo is one) mentioned over the weekend that the leverage is high right now.
Also, some meme coins popped 70-120% in a week, which to me always indicates that the market is probably overheating.
The latter only peripherally relates to bitcoin, but, still...
Bottom line: it wouldn't surprise me if we correct 10-15% from here (to 53-56K) before rallying into the halving, but I will not try to time it as 10% lower is nothing comparing to at least 200-300% possible upside to 180-250K. Wouldn't want to miss the latter.
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You can’t say Gemini has always been great. They screwed everyone in their Earn program. They’re claiming to be making up for it now but we’ll see when it’s all done. I know when the FTX drama was unfolding I withdrew all the BTC I had in their Earn program and as a result they closed my account and then closed the Earn program taking everyone’s funds. I thank my lucky stars I got out in time. I’d stay far away from them.
earn was genesis not gemini they were very clear about that when you used earn.. i also had stuff in earn but when luna/terra etc started to unravel i pulled it all from earn and left it in gemini. When I looked at it, it became clear that there was some then unidentified third party (Genesis) involved, so I never bothered to engage. I used Gemini, but just for trading...they are much less liquid than Coinbase, typically, but it's good to have an option for the situations like today's. Kraken had this bizarro status before when they weren't able to ACH $$ to Texas residents (as it is one of the states where they maybe have only a partial license). I did not check since maybe 2020. |
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It's going up to fast..
A left-translated cycle according to Bob Loukas? This scenario seems the most likely now. It also feels like 1998-early 1999 with relation to the internet stocks. That "bubble" (or what was considered then to be a "bubble', but mostly wasn't) peaked at 7-8 tril. Considering inflation, we might peak at 10-12 tril for the whole "complex" with bitcoin being at least 60%, maybe even 70%, so, say, 6-8 tril for bitcoin or 300-400K/btc (250-300K if btc stays at around 50% "dominance"). |
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....
Good timing, but did you increase your stash?
....
 That's funny...weren't you already "telling" about your glorious 61/19 trade? Imho, all sells are good sells when you either substantially increased your bitcoin stash as a result of a re-buy OR purchased an appreciating asset (typically, RE, but it could be the art too) OR sold because of a life need. If you sold btc just to increase your fiat stash per se, then I don't consider it as a good trade. @JJG increased his/hers btc stash a little as a result plus got 25% more fiat-a good trade on the balance. |
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I sold some
At
48
49
50
51
52
little pieces.
so youre the guy i bought from at 49 and 51k lol To the grandmas and/or taxi drivers I sold to @ 61K in 2021... thank you for taking one for the team. Keep hodeling my friends! You will be in the black in no time. (hopefully it wasn't you whom I bought it back from @ 19K in 2022) Good timing, but did you increase your stash? OT: How often does it happens that a football/soccer central defender scores two similar looking headers in one game, especially a final (one disallowed, but another a winning one)? I could not recall priors to van Dijk heroics today. |
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Below is only peripherally related, posting mostly for giggles: https://www.reddit.com/r/SuccessionTV/comments/k08dbs/five_million_is_a_nightmare/$5 million is a nightmare ??..a fuzzy logic there, but I understand the thesis: "too much to keep working on a middle class salary and too little to be completely free as far as your spending is concerned". So say you're working a normal $75-150K job, because $5M isn't quite enough for you and your family to live on and you still kinda need to work. It's pretty good, really, because, supplementing judiciously with investment income, you can have some real fun. But... 1. Your stock portfolio might easily swing up or down the entirety of your annual salary on any given day. An entire year of labor constitutes rounding error. How long do you keep the job? 2. Your boss is a dick. The company wants you to move. There've been layoffs, so your workload suddenly increases like crazy. The commute's a drag. You know you have $5M in the bank, and your annual salary is rounding error. The phrase "fuck you!" spills easily from your mouth. How long do you keep the job? 3. Inevitably, you quit, planning to lower overhead and survive on investment income. It works on paper, but then your kid needs braces and a new Macbook comes out and your house kinda needs painting and you have to hire a nurse for your elderly mom because you're too rich to put her in a nursing home. You won't stoically self-deny because you think of yourself as rich. So even if you're not splurging - no garage full of fancy sports cars - your wealth slowly diminishes, making starvation in retirement a real possibility, because you don't have the overhead of a normal person....and overhead is everything. Repeat: overhead is everything. |
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[edited out]
200 wma is useful from a trend observation perspective, but absolutely meaningless as a measure of your current liquid wealth. It is not meaningless. It is a way to measure the bottom, so that you may well be able to attempt to make plans about it. Yes, you can also use BTC spot price, yet do we need to argue about how crazy it fluctuates? In the end, there are likely a variety of ways to establish a cushion, and if you want to put your default entry-level fuck you status at a higher level, then that might be your way of dealing with such volatility, to the extent that you might be keeping most of your value in BTC rather than cashing out when you reach such perceived status. Say, tomorrow, something incredibly bad or good happens and bitcoin is at 20K or 100K.
Would you still think that your "wealth" in bitcoin is at 31K(200wma)X(your number of bitcoins)?
I already have a system to deal with it, and so there is an expectation that BTC prices will generally average above the 200 WMA by around 25% or more, and so yeah every once in a while the BTC price goes below the 200-WMA, but there are still presumptions about that not holdings.. unless something changes, and the incredibly good news has already happened so the BTC price is already expected to go up to $100k, it is just a matter of when rather than placing much if any weight on a timeline.. especially a short timeline... so yeah, if I don't fight too much with your hypothetical it would be a bit surprising to go up 2x in one day, but not totally outside of expectations and/or BTC historical happenings.. and sometimes going a bit beyond extreme.. and even getting 3.5x in a few months could end up happening, so that takes BTC prices to right around $180k... and I am not even sure if that is outside of possibilities, even though it would likely be quite shocking and cause some extra reactions, but guys like me already have some preparations for those kinds of scenarios.. sure admittedly my sell orders currently ONLY go up to $150k, but I would be able to fairly easily place additional sell orders between $150k and $500k. Same with going down to $20k, I have buy orders going down to $20k, but I would probably get nervious if the BTC price got down to $30k within a few hours, and I would probably pull my buy orders between $20k and $30k, even though I am ready to let them ride down to $30k without making any adjustments. So surely there could be a lot of depression if the BTC price goes down and refuses to come back up or goes to zero, and those are not non-zero possibilities, but they are pretty damned close to zero. and so we likely are going to be making our base case plans around more likely scenarios rather than making them around outlier scenarios... so if something is expected to have 1% or 2% odds, then we plan 1% to 2% for those things to happen, and yeah, we are not always going to be right, and there are ways to plan for outside scenarios while still mostly be preparing for the more likely base case scenarios.. and so there are some ways to hedge bets, if you had not realized that. Of course not, I hope, as you should mark to market and not some imaginary lagging number.
I don't see what purpose your advice is having here? except maybe an attempt to patronize... since it seems that you should sufficiently understand why a lagging indicator might be preferable to spot price when it comes to long term investing, but instead you seem to be wanting to argue for the mere sake of it... you can look at both spot price and various kinds of moving averages at the same time, and you can compare those moving averages, and my own system of sustainable withdraw looks at both spot price and 200-WMA in order to make various kinds of assessments for sustainable withdrawal, and any one who is willing to use such tool is free to incorporate those kinds of principles, and it is just a tool that can be considered as an option.. and it might be supplemented by raking tools and other tools, so everyone is responsible for their own valuation ideas and how to act upon such ideas in regards to managing their BTC holdings. The purpose of my post was to convey that in my opinion it is strange to think of 200 wma as a measure of wealth, that's all. You can design your buy/sell strategy off of that if you want..and you do, but it says almost nothing about your current liquid wealth, that's all or almost all that I had to say in my original post. Talking about 4X or 5X of 200WMA...that's just pure numerology, imho. If someone wants to DCA-sure, go ahead, but without paying almost any attention to the 200 wma. In fact, if you want to time it, the play around the good old 50day/200day averages (golden cross or a death cross) is much more valuable. |
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^ You guys over complicate things.
A simpler math (for US only):
FU status=$2mil in cash. Long term cap gains are 23.8 % in US, maximum, so you would need to produce about $2.56 mil in profit from a sale (I tried to account for 0-89.25K 0% tax, 89.25-250K 15% tax no NIIT, 250K-553.8K 15% tax+3.8% NIIT and above 553.8K-20% tax+3.8% NIIT; all for married, filed jointly).
Who is calling the kettle black? I have no problem with the idea of having an extra tax cushion, but you are still not getting to the essential question regarding any kind of BTC valuation plan that presumes mostly holding the BTC rather than selling it all. We are not selling all of our BTC, even though we are using our BTC to figure out when we reach entry-level fuck you status. Sure another thing is that we likely have other assets, but if the only thing that we have is bitcoin and cash then surely we can add in some extra for taxes or other expenses, but if we might be considering withdrawing from $2million at the traditional rates of 4% per year which would be $6,666 per month, then yeah we would have to figure out our tax consequences in the event that might be gross rather than net withdrawal.. I think that many of my presumptions is that we are referring to gross rather than net... but I also think that if you are using 4% as your withdrawal rate then you are likely in a very conservative withdrawal mode and either your BTC can grow a lot more or you could actually withdraw way more than your what you perceive to be your budget since you would only be withdrawing 4%, but the dollar value is much more, even right now it would be close to $11k per month rather than $6,666, since the BTC spot price is 63% above the 200-WMA (using 64 BTC as the current default entry-level fuck you status). You can see it your lil selfie right here by plugging in the numbers. If, for an argument's sake, your cost is very low, then you'll need about 50 BTC to sell in order to achieve the FU status in about an hour using bitcoin alone (with taxes all accounted for).
You are not following. You are using spot price rather than 200-WMA, like me And alternatively, you are not using AlcoHoDL's 5x spot price system.. which seems to currently be right around 145 BTC based on the last ATH price of $69k and using $10million as entry-level fuck you status. Neither of us were suggesting to use BTC spot price to figure out entry-level fuck you status or even to be planning to sell very large portions of our cornz.. as you seem to be suggesting to cash it all out. and then what? suffer with $2million dollars... who the fuck got into bitcoin in order to put it all into dollars? Yeah, sure there are guys out there who are wanting to do that, but that's not what either AlcoHoDL or I had been getting at..and maybe that's why it is seeming to be overly complicated from your spot price focused perspective. Adjust 50btc to a higher number if your cost is much higher, like above 5K (every 5K increase in your cost= about 10% increase in the number over 50BTC to achieve bitcoin- only fu status; example-if your cost was 20K, then you'll "need" to sell about 81 btc right now to almost insta-achieve fu status by bitcoin alone).
I am not sure what you are getting at, but yeah selling 81 BTC would get you right around $4.15 million in dollars (gross before taxes), but who is wanting to do that? even if any of us were to have 81 BTC. Just look at the spot, where you can sell right now, not some fancy 200WMA.
I am not sure how looking at spot fixes anything, especially if we are not cashing out of our BTC from here. But, hey do what you like. The spot is where you would be selling in case of a need to cash out to achieve fu or to buy something substantial, like a nice house, a small ranch or a lake . Of course we sell at spot, and so that could be put in our budget if we might aim for selling a certain amount of bitcoin at certain prices, and that may well be a different strategy to pull out some BTC at various prices versus if we were going to do it in a regular and sustainable way, and I am not even saying that one is better than the other, but they have differing frameworks in terms of how to treat your holdings. If we were going to do the lump sum sale, then yeah, we could do that as a kind of raking technique (something like this) rather than a monthly way of thinking about BTC withdrawals. 200 wma is useful from a trend observation perspective, but absolutely meaningless as a measure of your current liquid wealth. Say, tomorrow, something incredibly bad or good happens and bitcoin is at 20K or 100K. Would you still think that your "wealth" in bitcoin is at 31K(200wma)X(your number of bitcoins)? Of course not, I hope, as you should mark to market and not some imaginary lagging number. |
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^ You guys over complicate things. A simpler math (for US only): FU status=$2mil in cash. Long term cap gains are 23.8 % in US, maximum, so you would need to produce about $2.56 mil in profit from a sale (I tried to account for 0-89.25K 0% tax, 89.25-250K 15% tax no NIIT, 250K-553.8K 15% tax+3.8% NIIT and above 553.8K-20% tax+3.8% NIIT; all for married, filed jointly). If, for an argument's sake, your cost is very low, then you'll need about 50 BTC to sell in order to achieve the FU status in about an hour using bitcoin alone (with taxes all accounted for). Adjust 50btc to a higher number if your cost is much higher, like above 5K (every 5K increase in your cost= about 10% increase in the number over 50BTC to achieve bitcoin- only fu status; example-if your cost was 20K, then you'll "need" to sell about 81 btc right now to almost insta-achieve fu status by bitcoin alone). Just look at the spot, where you can sell right now, not some fancy 200WMA. The spot is where you would be selling in case of a need to cash out to achieve fu or to buy something substantial, like a nice house, a small ranch or a lake . Well, each one is different. In the end, whatever suits each one of us is the best strategy. As for selling, are you sure you want to park $2M of fiat in a bank account in one sell? Don't you want to shave off small amounts from your stash as and when required? A "buy when you can, sell when you must" approach. Unless you intend to buy something big, like a million-dollar house, etc. In that case, are $2M enough for f.u. status for you? This is not meant to be a "per year" amount, but a "lifetime" amount. Just saying... Well, according to the canon, and by that I mean this
video clip from The "Gambler"....you need a roof over your head (preferably a new one) and 2 mil in the bank, but "in the bank" could be a money market fund, of course. 2 mil is now on the low side, though, I might say. The "new" number is probably around 5 mil (about 100btc, currently). |
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^ You guys over complicate things. A simpler math (for US only): FU status=$2mil in cash. Long term cap gains are 23.8 % in US, maximum, so you would need to produce about $2.56 mil in profit from a sale (I tried to account for 0-89.25K 0% tax, 89.25-250K 15% tax no NIIT, 250K-553.8K 15% tax+3.8% NIIT and above 553.8K-20% tax+3.8% NIIT; all for married, filed jointly). If, for an argument's sake, your cost is very low, then you'll need about 50 BTC to sell in order to achieve the FU status in about an hour using bitcoin alone (with taxes all accounted for). Adjust 50btc to a higher number if your cost is much higher, like above 5K (every 5K increase in your cost= about 10% increase in the number over 50BTC to achieve bitcoin- only fu status; example-if your cost was 20K, then you'll "need" to sell about 81 btc right now to almost insta-achieve fu status by bitcoin alone). Just look at the spot, where you can sell right now, not some fancy 200WMA. The spot is where you would be selling in case of a need to cash out to achieve fu or to buy something substantial, like a nice house, a small ranch or a lake . |
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