to be fair the word 'insisting' was added by you(you down playing the malicious idiocy of some).. satoshi specifically said tyrannical. which implies malice and so i get to also insult such people too

i said lame because its now 2023 and the idiots(yep i said it) that want to keep blocks small are using excuses for the last 5+ years that bitcoiners cant use broadband/fibre 4/5G and that bitcoin has to stay at 2008 era tech
"for the benefit of maximising who can use bitcoin(be full noders)"
gain its lame because we are actually in 2023 not 2008

it would be soo hilarious if them same tyrants/lame idiots tried the same narrative on the netflix/streaming/twitch or gaming industry

they seem a little busy preparing the 20% redemption triggered by the fir tree law suit last month

it is kind of sad that GBTC want to charge 2% fee for just holding onto peoples value, when it turns out greyscale is not actually even holding the value. (coinbase is).. but then coinbase and greyscale not allowing people to escape..

greyscale have shoddy terms about "we wont redeem unless sponsor allows" (THEY ARE THE SPONSOR!!)
so other companies want to buy out greyscale to be the sponsor to the change the terms and allow redemptions

greyscale is hoping a 20% redemption for those that want to escape would be enough to appease those that want to leave

however i perceive a race to exit of everyone causing a bank run where greyscale can only afford a 20% exit and everyone fighting for a 'ticket' to be only of the 20% first class leavers

PoS fails in its eventual need to custodianise to syndicate(combine value) the stake to meet the thresholds. making places like coinbase a central point of failure of PoS (as we are seeing with ethereum that is highly staked and custodianised in coinbase

his coins were on old legacy keys (before seeds were even a thing, before hardware wallets(seed based) were a thing)
he had backups EG (maybe)paper wallet and/or (most probably) usb drive of wallet.dat files

he has an external drive just not one big enough to do the job in one go..
i was reading it as if he was getting out/away from an old bloated system and wanted to install on a new system. without having to redownload the blockchain

but either way. copying as much as he can saves some time

i know alot of people think there is a single telephone number that if you call it, 'CSI:cyber crime' team answer and speedily arrive at your house in 20 minutes to explore your computer.. sorry.. this is not how things work


if you read it properly and apply logic and common sense against it too
(if you read his other tweets it makes more sense in full context)

he did contact authorities by the usual routes(phone).. they were not interested/unable to help. his tweet was just a rant not a plea for help


to get hold of FBI you have to go through a rigmarole of call centres to escalate the situation. also it was late night of new years day. dont expect miracles


he was obviously not able to get to the centre of the FBI... and local authorities were (as known from other incidences of many people) just got sent around the pass the bucket brigade of call centres, saying there is "nothing they can do at local level and here is a crime reference number, bye"

yes you can just copy over half of the files and then copy over the other half (in two copy/paste rounds)

the blk files are sequential so make sure you (eventually) copy all the files or your sync(re-scan) will stop at a certain point if a middle blk file is missing

the practice of security is easy
but alot of people with old timer coins enjoy the "proof of patience" of not moving coins periodically. its a trophy to hoard coins where the utxo is dated over 10+ years

im personally guilty of it, i imported wallets just to make sure that the data has not degreded or been edited to ensure i still had access to keys

the complacency is more about importing keys into wallets of hot (online) devices when you have no desire to move the coins, having keys presented to multiple systems even if your not moving coins. not wiping said devices after whatever you done

nope
in the december.2010 he says some bitcoiners will become tyrannical and want to keep blocks small with lame excuses of wanting it to be available on small devices wheree those types of lame excuse idiots were thinking holding back tx counts for those idiots to have bitcoin on a phone would mean more people would get to use bitcoin(sorry but no thats not how utility works)
back then there was not really a "lite wallet" so now in 2022 people trying to use the excuse of keep the full nodes small vi block limits and pruning has meaningless lame reasoning. because phone users can just use a lite wallet instead


the debates(s) were also about including more bloated data unrelated to bitcoin transfers. where people wanted to store library books and domain registries on the bitcoin blockchain. he was simply stating that other data does not need to be pumped into bitcoin blockchain and also that bitcoin can grow for bitcoin utility. while people have separate networks for the other data and find ways to cross communicate when purchasing domains without the need for the domain details to bloat up bitcoin

i would say even i got complacent...
thinking back i probably also have my keys at some point touching atleast three PC's i own (not this one i use for forum/lifestyle internet use. im not that dumb)
and i havnt moved the coins in over a decade. so i probably will be moving my stash to fresh keys (when i can be bothered) where the new private keys have not touched a online pc

i kinda dont feel its complacency. it was more of a trophy to not want/need to touch/move coins in years. but from this saga, i can see it from an outsiders prospective of being like complacency

so i agree it might kick some people up the ass to motivate them passed the 'trophy hoard' mindset (appeal of not moving=its own proof of patience. (that my excuse anyways))

like myself. i have hoards from earlier years. that have not been moved. so due to lack of multisig in early years it wouldnt have been put on multisig when first received. and (even i havnt) bothered to move coins from old stash

if using multisig when its just you using all the keys. multisig ais a little pointles because you have to bring the keys together into one computer to compute address and also to make spends. thus pointless using becasue the keys would be just as compromised

multisog is only useful for multiple parties to sign separately in separate locations and then only need to append signature to a raw tx
...

coins were not on a hardware wallet. as that also requires moving coins from old addresses

he said he had alot of old legacy keypairs, some on a hot wallet and some backed up in physical form(paper wallet, usb stick) stored in a physical house-safe

he said he doesnt have a hardware wallet or airgapped pc.

shh your not suppose to give the dog a bone, something to chase after. i prefer to leave it as a pet project that you smile at from a distance but fear even putting your hand near.

..
but looking at the coinmarketcap. most of the other top listers are stable coins (group 1) where by it allows banks to invest healthily and heavily in mostly bitcoin, ethereum in 2B

things like xrp and bnb are more of the 2A group not 2B (A centralised B decentralised)

come on guys we have to all admit it

if we had a time machine to go back and give ourselves sound financial advice..
.. it would always be "you should have got with that other woman you met that month"

speculated scenarios based on limited stuff said:

"email notifications from kraken/coinbase"
maybe the hacker got to the coins he had on an exchange

or

he uploads binaries for his bitcoin knots node to his server from github. hacker replaced binary with compromised one. luke downloaded binary from server without checking (who actually checks their own work if you believe you were the one that uploaded it(why check the binaries twice))
and then put his keys into the compromised binary of bitcoinknots and "byebye bitcoinio"

both seem more plauible than a burglar entering his house.. again she would notice and not be questioning the how if his house was compromised

plan B's zone of $100k-$1m is very wide thus even if it went to $101k he can say "see mom i was right" while the rest of the world only heard the second half of his statement that he thought $1m is possible

i doubt 2025 ATH will be $1m

usually
first ath to second $30-$1200 (40x)
second ath to third $1200-$20,000 (16x)
third ath to fourth $20,000-$70,000 (3.5x)

so id expect maybe a 2-3x just to be safe
so a expectation of $210,000 or less in 2025

which is 2.5 years to get to above a 500exahash rate to get that possible market value:premium zone

he said his server was hacked a couple months ago.. compromising his PGP key..
thus he probably had a hot wallet and pgp key store on his server that was hacked

doubt it was a burglar entering his house to steal his hardware wallet. he would notice that and not be questioning "how"

the funny thing about inflation is.. dollar has always been in an inflation
ever since 2002-2007-2012 you can check the price of most goods of 10-15-20 years compared to now and the average change in price is actually been quite the same. its just a few ear-marked baskets of goods used by CPI were held down to fake a lower rate while real prices of everything else have gone up

i remember 20 years ago the price of UK fuel was 70p/litre now its over £1.40
this means 100% extra in the price of 2002. 100%/20=5%

yes inflation happens but that does not mean that becasue news company finally admits the government finally updated its rates to show a different rate this year .. does not mean this year causes real term need to buy more bitcoin. people have already been hedging fiat for years.

you wanting the price to suddenly jump now this week due to something you read on the news about inflation.. is different to the real shopping habits people see as price changes over the last few years


the 2011 ATH set the first spike a year after new price discovery event(first exchange)
the 2013 came earlier by a couple months than the prediction of the 2011 would cause
the 2016 came later
the 2020 came with 2 peaks to try emulating the mix of the peaks of the previous cycles

so here is the peaks mapped out in cycles

2010-2012 2012-2016 2016-2020 2020-2022


in short we are correctly in the 'low zone' of each cycle

i would say in the 2025 ATH attempt there will be one,2,3 peaks in the same area as those peaks and then ~2 years of lows on a slow growth
...
and here is the price range to expect the markets to work within depending on the value:premium zone based on mining hashrate of this gens hardware and costs


in short if 2023 hashrate is about 250exa, the price would wiggle SOMEWHERE between $15k-$100k
in short if 2023 hashrate is about 330exa, the price would wiggle SOMEWHERE between $20k-$130k
in short if 2023 hashrate is about 500exa, the price would wiggle SOMEWHERE between $31k-$200k

looking OUTSIDE of the market candles.. there are other options to acquire bitcoin

the public CEX exchanges (the retail market)
there is also the OTC market(the wholesale market)
there is also the mining (the producers/farmers market)

by looking at the variance of mining efficiencies around the world
"industrial" grid electric prices go from $0.04/kwh to  
"residential" grid electric prices go upto $0.48kwh

this puts a window of
cheapest on planet(value) - no one wants to sell below
expensive on planet(premium) - no one wants to buy above

creating this window of possible price range the market will work within


now based on hashrate of current generation asics
EXA     low(value)      high(premium)
250    $15,509.84     $98,118.19
330    $20,473.00     $129,516.01
410    $25,436.15     $160,913.83
490    $30,399.30     $192,311.65
570    $35,362.45     $223,709.48
650    $40,325.60     $255,107.30
730    $45,288.76     $286,505.12
810    $50,251.91     $317,902.94

this means while hashrate is in the mid 200-300 the speculative market can speculate anywhere between $15k-$100k(rounded)

this means if the hashrate went upto 800exa. the price could still be at a low of $50k but could speculate as high as $310k(rounded)
yep at 810 exa on current mining asic efficiencies/recent models the bottom will become $50k

no one can predict where within this range the price will be of the range of the hashrate of the time. but we can see that the price is somewhere within that range.

in short 2021-2022 did not really go over the 260exa hashrate and so the (off market) measures had no reasons why anyone would dare buy bitcoin for $100k when everyone could have mined/acquired bitcoin for under $100k via other means

so right now i dont expect bitcoin to go upto $100k

everyone else making smaller number guesses are doing so for personal reasons. usually when someone buys coin they automatically decide a 2x exit price

so if this topic creator wants $30k this year its because he bought at about the $15k rate

so if this topic creator wants $100k this year its because he bought at about the $50k rate
(alot of people have a 2x multiplier of a 'within 1 year' timescale)

however these people throwing a number out into a comment he just wants to see if people agree to those amounts possibly happening in the creators time frame to ease his mind that exiting at his presumed 2x is achievable

well. unless the hashrate goes above 260exha and IF there is very HIGH speculation. it wont breach the $100k market barrier

as for $30k, its possible.. but within your march/april time scale.. well thats an unknown

bitcoin is greener then some pretend

majority of asic mining is done in large asic farms on very good electric contracts with power companies locking in xxGW deals per quarter

these contracts are majority with renewables
however some "anal"(half assed analyst) claims the numbers are lower by fudging their data set with "guestimates" "assumptions"

bitcoin is more efficient on watts per thash then some pretend

the agenda is simple. say its bad, use very bad math, made up guesses and assumptions, create a regulation or campaign pretending it will help change the results.. then reveal the real numbers later and pretend you changed things with a lame "look mom, look what i did"

https://ccaf.io/cbeci/index/methodology
amounts : words mentioned
40 : estimate
27 : assumption
15 : average
 8  : best-guess
 4  : assumptions
 3  : hypothetical
 3  : theoretical
 1  : approximates

---

just looking at energy usage using better math
the 2 main asics of bitcoin (low efficiency high efficiency)


140 for 2.88kw (21watt per thash) - efficient (low power per thash)
250 for 5.2kw (21watt per thash) - efficient (low power per thash)

95 for 3.25kw (34watt per thash) - inefficient (high power per thash)

so network is lower bound 222exahash recently
so network is lower bound 267exahash recently

lower bound 4566857142watt (low power low hashrate)
upper bound 9134210526watt(high power high hashrate)

result:
lower bound 4.566Gw/h
upper bound 9.134Gw/h

yet they "guestimate" 5-15gw/h

the Bank of international settlement (BIS)
have a guideline policy for how central banks can hoard crypto in the future

https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d545.pdf

the short version for those that dont like to read
coins like BTC and ETH are set into a 'group 2b'
where the BIS advised banks only have from 2025 a individual holding 2% of crypto assets vs all combined assets. which is about if combining all banks in BIS. about $3-4trillion in bitcoin/eth

now the lengthier explainer
BIS originally set a limit of just 1% of the banks combined value, which the banks then got the BIS to change to 2%(banks want to hold crypto and more then the BIS first proposed was allowable)

based on some sources. this means of the banks combined value of 180trillion(yep i was shocked too)
the banks can hoard upto ~$3.7trillion of crypto such as ethereum/btc

there are other groups for second layer tokens and other groups for stable coins with their own limits and descriptors

but the group 2b have descriptors where the "market cap" needs to be above 10billion. and market volume of over 50m a day. meaning that rules out alot of crap coins from being in the group 2b category (sorry doge. no go, no throw, no mo)