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461  Economy / Speculation / Re: SR2 (Silk Road related market crash, take 2) on: June 13, 2014, 08:49:05 PM
It was just a correction. Not much related to SR bitcoins - just people taking profits. But if the rally was only Expedia insiders buying - than it is possible that it is over now when this is public. And even if not then most probably there will be be another leg of the correction soon.
462  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2014, 11:40:29 AM
This 'price moves on or is correlated to the news' mindset is some sort of old school wall-street-minded thinking which started up when all these 'wall-street' people and big experienced investors started getting involved with bitcoin - that is the only way they know how to think. They aren't familiar with this decentralized market structure with the predictable underlying technical forces that we are familiar with, lack of regulation/transparency, and gigantic chunks of the supply being held by irrational children.

A big part of deficit in the crypto world isn't only held back by irrational children. A very big part is held back as a rational plan by grey area players, who run the market.
Most of the people underestimate those who actually run the exchanges. They rake in a lot of coins with fees, while their operating costs are quite low. But that's not it. They can earn even a bigger amount by playing the market with having access to information that isn't public. They have an detailed overview of their customers balances and they can even map their customers trading habits. If they are anywhere near being smart, then they are also sharing this information with each other and collaborate their trading actions. This consortium is probably the one who is mainly responsible for the artificial deficit created in the crypto world.

This is probably illegal in every possible jurisdiction.
463  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2014, 11:38:16 AM
Last time we were around 600s, there were 15 million in loans. This time, it is 25 million. The longs are ballooning up without reason, and I sense another Bitcoinica.

Can't it be that Bitfinex is simply getting bigger and more popular? Like Bitstamp's orderbook was getting bigger pretty fast in the wake of Gox stumbling and failing? I remember that in the past Bitfinex was always out of USD to borrow, which prevented the loans to reach new ATHs then. Maybe they're growing out of that phase now as people are getting fed up of Stamp and don't trust BTC-e.

They've stopped routing orders to Stamp - so they are not limited by the amount of USD they have on Stamp (but I hope they still limit the swaps to the USD they have received from their customers).
464  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2014, 05:13:15 AM
When will deleveraging happen? The outstanding swaps only grow on Bitfinex.
465  Economy / Speculation / Re: My crazy fractal idea of what a downtrend resume would look like (IF IT DOES) on: June 12, 2014, 11:23:59 AM
For such drawings to be valid you need to add either:

A) a dinosaur

or

B) a guy smoking a joint

466  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why market going downward after such good news like "expedia accepted btc" = = on: June 12, 2014, 08:10:01 AM
The rally was caused by insiders and now they are realizing their profits Smiley
467  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2014, 05:20:13 AM
Have you guys noticed how rallies precede good news - not the other way around?
468  Economy / Speculation / Re: If Bitcoin became the world (Reserve) currency on: June 11, 2014, 05:45:14 PM
When a thread such as this one appears - this is always a bearish sign.

469  Economy / Speculation / Re: Some Bearish Observations. on: June 11, 2014, 11:40:22 AM
Some great info in this thread! While a short term correction is definitely possible, I firmly believe that later this year truckloads of VC and wall street money will come pouring into BTC and the price will be back in the 4 digits. When that happens, it won't really matter whether you got in at a $50-$100 per BTC discount  Grin

No matter how much it grows the one buying with discount will have about 10% more.

By they way - I think it will drop much more than that.
470  Economy / Speculation / Re: A break-out? on: May 30, 2014, 01:22:32 PM
That looks like a break-out from the leading diagonal wedge that seemed to be forming from the $340 bottom.

Strong volume, although it still needs to confirm itself.

I have bought in at $600, but am ready to bail back out should the break out fail and simply result in the final high of the leg up from $460 as posters such as ibankbitcoins suggests.

Important to note before the denialists start trying to deny it, is that Huobi was once again, ahead of Bitstamp on this break out (2 mins ahead). We are still being lead from China.

Have a look at finex charts.
471  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stock trader joining bitcoin. Targets and projections. on: May 28, 2014, 09:29:45 AM
And what do you think about the break neck short term up trend being now broken?

Can you elaborate on that? or a chart to show me?

472  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stock trader joining bitcoin. Targets and projections. on: May 28, 2014, 08:51:35 AM
And what do you think about the break neck short term up trend being now broken?
473  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 28, 2014, 08:50:08 AM
It would be nice if you people could stop dumping mmmkay?

It is the Chinese - not us!
474  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 28, 2014, 07:07:17 AM
By the way - what is the current status of the Chinese exchanges? Are they cut out from the banking system and use HuobiCNY and such?

i don't think so. i haven't heard anything about that, as far as banking options being cut. seems like everything just continued as usual. last i heard, all options were more or less still available and the status quo hasn't changed. puts a nice cloud of mystery over the whole market....

Wonder when we'll have another bunch of news from there.
475  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 28, 2014, 06:41:41 AM
By the way - what is the current status of the Chinese exchanges? Are they cut out from the banking system and use HuobiCNY and such?
476  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: May 25, 2014, 05:38:23 AM
Cup and handle on daily charts (handle slightly small) - target above 670.
477  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 23, 2014, 02:28:20 PM
On a very short scale divergencies, up trend broken - time for a correction.
478  Economy / Speculation / Re: I'm not shorting anymore on: May 16, 2014, 12:19:24 PM
I had in mind something else:



And the volume is dropping...replay of the end of January?

This triangle is bullish. It is a pennant.
479  Economy / Speculation / Re: Joint statement by 5 chinese exchanges (they will keep operating) on: May 06, 2014, 07:49:56 AM
OK - so what "stop financing new financing currency after currency to pay off all of the facility or stopping leveraged finance trading operations" means? Does that mean that they will stop receiving funds and only let people trade with the money they already have on the exchanges?

I guess that jump today was because of this statement - but if it means what I think it means - then it is in fact bearish.
480  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2014, 08:12:19 PM
I actually like the poll going on right now...some of the terms are so fitting for the differences in attitudes rolling through this forum on a daily basis

Even if you assume that people would correctly asses their own state - it would be still rather useless when we don't know if they are long or short.
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