Going down, down and more down doing lower lows and lower highs in a dead cat bounce is not a consolidation... is a downtrend.

Words need to be followed by actions, or it doesn't mean anything.
And anyway, even if we reached bottom (which maybe not) bitcoin is not probably going to rally any time soon. First it needs boring months of consolidation, where people can start forgetting how painful is going down for months. So they can start slowly gaining confidence and buying again.

Bitcoin can't even consolidate and is still fighting to not go below $266. I don't understand how some of you are claiming the next bubble is starting soon. Is not the most clear indicator of full denial?

If you are a bitcoin fanatic, but you spend your bitcoins through merchants that instantly dump them for fiat [and you don't instantly rebuy them because you are allin] helping to dump a bit more the price downwards to break the $266 support.

Is that bearish or bullish?

Si claro, cuando la tendencia vuelva a ser alcista esto cambiará, la cantidad de fiat irá subiendo poco a poco, etc, etc.
Pero todavía está ocurriendo todo lo contrario, el fiat no deja de salir y el ritmo ni tan siquiera ha dejado de frenarse. Por eso digo que estamos en una zona muy peligrosa, ya que como esto se siga alargando y tiene toda la pinta... no sería raro ver sub $266 y el pánico de las manos débiles va a ser de órdago. E incluso algunas fuertes sobreinvertidas y todos aquellos que compraron con fuerza en $275 pensando que era el suelo infalible.


Es un mal momento para vender, pero si te paras a analizar la situación, comprar es mucho peor. No está claro que hayamos tocado fondo, el precio va bajando poco a poco sin mucho volumen. Y la presión vendedora de mineros, procesadores de pagos y bitcoiners que necesitan retirar dinero no perdona, está ahí 24/7.

Que la mayoría de bitcoiners piense que los $266 es una barrera intocable y que ni se lo cuestionen da mucho que pensar. Es una completa negación y por debajo de esa barrera hay mucho dolor. Todos los que han comprado desde hace 1 año están en números rojos y cada vez más cansados de aguantar, con tanto bagholder es difícil que el precio pueda subir, a la mínima van a ir saliendo más y más.

Para que la situación pueda cambiar necesitamos una consolidación, un tiempo de calma donde el precio pueda estabilizarse durante un tiempo y después ir subiendo poco a poco sin volver abajo, cosa que todavía no hemos tenido. O que algo muy grande ocurra que cambie el sentimiento totalmente del día a la mañana, algo que no es nada fácil.

Meses atrás esta barrera quedaba muy lejos (y ni yo mismo me la planteaba), pero a estas alturas tiene sus probabilidades y no diría que son bajas como mucha gente piensa.
El precio podrá bajar o no de $266, no soy adivino, pero la posibilidad es realista y existe. Desde el punto de vista de trading es muy mal momento para tener bitcoins. El momento para comprarlos era en el anterior pánico sub $300, pero después una vez el precio volvía a entrar en espiral vendedora a los $390 era momento de vender. Si consigue estabilizarse y las tornas empiezan a cambiar será momento de comprar entonces (y a ver cuanto dura el rally después), pero no ahora.

PD: Desde el punto de vista de inversión a largo plazo el precio a corto plazo es irrelevante (salvo para acumular más). Todo sea dicho yo mismo tengo parte en bitcoins a largo plazo que no pienso vender ni aunque el precio baje a $0.01.

6 days and it will be outdated if we keep at $325. Now they will need to start comparing with 2 years ago.

El volumen será masivo eso sin duda. Las compras serán masivas porque otros muchos venderán en pánico en pérdidas o para evitarlas. Es "feo" decirlo, pero veo necesaria una limpieza de manos débiles y volver a un nivel donde el precio pueda establecerse sin ir desangrándose poco a poco por la presión vendedora de los mineros, los procesadores de pagos y los usuarios perdiendo la fe.

Va a haber mucho dolor por parte de los que han entrado el último año y han invertido más de la cuenta (si, más aún del que ya llevan encima). El sueño de bitcoin se les habrá convertido en la mayor pesadilla.

Todo esto sólo en caso de ir por debajo de los $275, pero ya no está muy lejos.

Sure... You think you are investing, but you are gambling. If you hodl 1-2 years you will probably earn money, but that doesn't mean you understand what you are saying.

No se si si vamos por debajo de $275 o no, pero a día de hoy es una realidad que podamos acabar por debajo de ese nivel. Es un nivel muy emocional, por lo que se puede montar la de dios.
Incluso si vamos por debajo de ese nivel bitcoin saldrá adelante ya que bitcoin (al margen del precio) sigue creciendo y cada día tiene más utilidad, pero necesitará mucho más tiempo del que pensábamos antes de poder volver por encima de $1200.

You can't prove you destroyed the private keys. But there are other ways, though.

But we are speaking about short term price. That would drive the price instantly to something ridiculously low for a long time.
How can be that a bullish scenario in the short term?

What?
Are you telling me if Satoshi comes and dumps off exchange 1 million bitcoins would be bullish for the price because lot of people would be buying?

When you sell something in the other side there is a buyer... that's granted. But what matters is sellers to buyers ratio. If you have more sellers price go down...
That's pretty simple, dude...

I would like to read that thread. Can you give me link?

Even if that's true, part of that coins are probably sold to lock profits and others in order to wait for the trend to change.
Would me less than if they need to sell nearly all to pay bills, but still adding selling pressure though.

Higher difficulty means less profit for miners, so they need to dump more percentage of their daily mining income to pay bills.... That's something bad for bitcoin price (and only good for security).

Highers transactions means more users, but if they are not willing to buy then it doesn't mean price will go up. People like to invest when price is going up, and when they look last year chart they get scared as fuck. This users will probably buy, but they will feel the real urge to buy when bitcoin is 2x or 3x over ATH because bitcoin will be "cool again" and they won't want to "miss the train".
And I'm also convinced it is growing faster because people are sending more bitcoins to exchanges and expending them, adding more selling pressure.

I think bitcoin will have a shiny future, but it will need time to develop, maybe 6, 12 or 18 months. It is not magically goin to rally like lot of people think here.

Even if a small pump happens, then what? Miners, merchants and bitcoiners giving up (or cashing out at their breakeven point) will lead to more slow bleeding until market sentiment changes. And sentiments don't change from one day to another, it needs time for consolidation which we still didn't have (or a miracle).

That argument is usually used by gamblers. Even if you don't sell, what matters is how much that bitcoins are worth now compared when you bought. So if you bought higher you are losing money. The past is over and you don't know what will happen in the future, the only thing that counts is the present.

Technically not selling is the same than buying (ignoring fees, etc). So if you invested $1,000 and it is now worth $500 and you decide to keep invested, would be the same than if you have $500, no bitcoins, and you decide to buy.
That's all.

Not exactly backed by nothing. It is backed by utility. As long as it provides enough value by saving fess, being yourself the real owner of your money, fixed supply, faster international payments, online blackmarkets, online gambling, and so on, it will have a price. The day bitcoin won't provide any advantage anymore, well, that day bitcoin will be dead, but that is far far away.

Is not that easy to create a 51% attack. They would need huge mining power working together to do it, plus spending a lot of money in electricity. And small/mid miners will be the first to shut down their equipment, big farms have lower breakeven point than the others. It has a very very low chance of happening.
And in that case miners would be harming themselves, because price would take even more time to go higher again, so they could turn on their miners again...

If bears and dumpers break $275 level, real shitstorm will hit the fan. Whales won't be buying unless it is a bargain price if that happens.
I don't know if we will reach that point or not, just saying.

Buy bitcoin, never sell, so you have a 0% probability to lose money. Great bull logic...