Stompix has a world record of wrong difficulty adjustment predictions  , i hope he makes up for that and win this time.

The pace is almost static now and has been for the past a few days, so ya, all picks outside of 98% to 102% are almost guaranteed to not win.

I believe since this is a "friendly contest" it could be done on an individual basis, in other words, if I request to switch numbers with joker_josue and he agrees to it, if I win, I give you his BTC address, if he wins, he gives you my BTC address, I believe everyone on the list could be trusted with a prize of 0.001 BTC, there is no need to put more work on your shoulders.

الموضوع ابسط مايكون اخي, ان كان الغرض هوا فقط زيادة الحماية فلا داعي له, ان كان لغرض اخر مثل ماشرحت في تعليقي السابق فالامر يختلف.

الغالبية العظمى من الناس تكون اموالهم في امان اكثر عند اتباع القواعد الاساسية والبسيطة بدون اي زيادات, قم بكتابة البذرة على ورقة, ثم قم بوضعها في مكان امن وسهل الوصول في حالات الطوارىء, هذا فقط ماتحتاجه لابقاء اموالك في مستوى امان عالي.

Yes most certainly a deadline is a must,  and to avoid time zones differences we could use block numbers as a deadline, so for example, my offer above expires with block 1600 of the current epoch.

This will be useless at epoch start but towards the end it's fun.

 

نعم هده احد استخدمات الكلمة الاضافية, الاستخدام الاساسي لها هي امكانية انشاء اكثر من محفظة باستخدام seed phrase واحدة, فمثلا يمكن ان تنشاء لابنائك 5 محافظ وتعطي لكل واحد منهم كلمة خاصة به, وتقوم بحفظ ال seed الاساسي في مكان امن يصلون اليه في وقت معين, هنا كل ماتحتاج اليه هوا حفظ seed واحد بدل من 5, فيمكن ان تكون الصغة كالاتي

seed + ahmed
seed + ali
seed + fatima
seed + amira
seed + sara

بهده الطريقة حتى لو تحصل احمد على seed لن يتمكن الا من الوصول الى المحفظة الخاصة به (طبعا لو فرضنا انك لم تستخدم كلمات سهلة التخمين).

اما بالنسبة للاستخدام الذي ينتهجه معظم المبدئتين وهوا ظنا منهم ان زيادة كلمة على ال 12 كلمة الموجودة مسبقا ضروري لزيادة الحماية فهدا غير صحيح, لو كانت البذرة 12 كلمة فأن احتماليات فكها 2048 اس 12 , وهدا الرقم كبير لدرجة لايمكن للالة الحاسبة العادية كتابته على الشاشة, الاستخدام الخاطئ الاخر هوا حفظ البذرة الرئيسية على ورقة وحفظة الكلمة الاضافية في الذاكرة, وهدا تصرف خاطيء جدا لانه من الغباء ان يثق الانسان في ذاكرته خصوصا مع مرور الوقت, ايضا في حال موت الشخص يحرم عائلته من الحصول على امواله, اما في حال كتابة البذرة على ورقة والكلمة الاضافية على ورقة واخفائهما في مكانين مختلفين, فهدا يزيد احتمالية ضياع اموالك بمقدار الضعف.

المبلغ فعلا كبير بالنسبة للسارق والاشخاص العادين, لفت انتباهي جملة " ان الخسائر تعادل عائدات المنصة في اسبوعين" وكان علي البحث عن صحة هده المعلومة وتبين لي ان متوسط قيمة التداول اليومي على المنصة تعادل 642.88 مليون دولار, فلو فرضنا ان متوسط الرسوم في المنصة هي  0.20% كما اظهرت لي نتائج البحث, هدا يعني ان دخلهم اليومي هوا 1.28 مليون دولار, يعني خلال اسبوعين قد يصل الرقم الى 18 مليون دولار, طبعا بعد انقاص تكاليف التشغيل, وايضا لايمكن ان تكون الرسوم 0.2% لكل العملاء حيث انه يوجد تخفيضات للاشخاص الذين يستعملون عملة المنصة او تجاوزو حد معين من المعاملات, ولكن بالمجمل مبلغ 8 مليون دولار في اسبوعين بالنسبة للمنصة يعتبر منطقي جدا وانا صراحة لم اكن اتوقع ان دخل هده المنصة بهدا الحجم.

The thing is, you don't know who is winning and/or who is losing until it's over or maybe a few hours before the epoch ends at best, as it stands right now the pace is 100.0831%  which means if everything stays the same, Phill is going to win, at this point and given that there are 4 days or so left, Phill may think that the pace will continue to climb, and he might want to switch picks with me, I, on the other hand, may think that the pace is going to stay still and thus believe that Phil's chances are better than mine so I agree to switch.

To give you a real-life example, I am willing to exchange seats with sirazimuth since I think the pace will go slightly above my pick by the end of epoch, I am now closer to winning than sirazimuth, so he may see this as a good exchange and agrees to switch places.

So you are aware of the existence of the thread that discussed Coingecko's shit content, if you read the comments, you see that I alongside many other miners explained in detail and with strong evidence that the whole study was a complete b.s, it doesn't serve the mining community when people keep posting this study as a reference to anything valid, you could put this image next to "avoid b.s studies such as 'the image you posted above' ", other than that, it's doing more harm than good to everyone looking at it.

Amazing how the difficulty pace changes too fast

we are now at 100.5497% with roughly 4.5 days ahead, judging by how fast/slow the pace has been moving I think the following picks have the highest chance of winning



I know this is a fun game and you wouldn't want to have to deal with changes, but I think adding the ability to trade your pick with another person would be fun, for an example, MagicByt3 would request an exchange with joker_josue and if accepted they switch places, something like Monty Hall if you guys have ever watched it.

احسنت على هده الدراسة, طبعا مثل العادة الاخ hugeblack يفوز علي ف عدد النقاط المرسلة, ساحاول الفوز في المستقبل  .

اعنقد ان القسم العربي في مستوى جيد من حيث النشاط وتوزيع نقاط الجدارة واعتقد ان الامر سيتحسن اكثر عند توقف بعض الاعضاء عن تخزين نقاط الجدارة بدل من ارسالها, لا اعرف كيف اشرح ذلك ولكن كل ماتشبتت بنقاط الجدارة كلما قلت نقاط الجدارة التي ستحصل عليها.

Isn't Dragon miner T1 a copycat of the original Innosilicon T1?  I don't recall what miner did Halong Mining modify to make that Dragon T1 but sure thing is; they never made their own, so you are more likely to find that firmware by looking for it using the original miner model keywords like Innosilicon T1 Firmware instead fo searching for Dragon T1 firware.

التجاهل ليس حل لهده المشكلة, والامر يحتاج للتوعية المستمرة خصوصا في القسم العربي نظرا للطيبة المفرطة للعرب بصفة عامة فهم يتسارعون لتقديم المساعدة وهدا امر جيد ان كان في محله ولكن التفريق بين شخص محتاج وشخص نصاب ليس بالامر السهل خصوصا للمستجدين, وقد حدث الكثير من عمليات النصب المشابهة في القسم العربي في السابق لذلك وجب التنويه والحديث عن هده المواضيع.

It won't, miner sales are more related to economics than to technicals, the S19 series still beats almost every other miner in the market efficiency-wise, the only exception would the MicroBT M50s++ and DesiweMiner K10Pro, and both do not have real large manufacturing yet especially the latter, so the S19 series in general especially the Pro and XP is still safe from competition, there is no rush for Bitmain to flood the market with the S21 especially since there are a lot of S19 stocks (a massive chunk of the hydro versions) sitting on the shelves.

You still need to add roughly 160W for the 4 fans, so that takes it to 3650W, the hydro will most certainly be 3-phase wired, it would sit on the shelves for months and then sell for a lot cheaper just like what's happening to the older hydro version.

17.5w/th for an air-cooled miner is certainly a huge improvement, the M50s++ is 22w/th so MicroBT has a lot of catching up to do, my guess MicroBT will launch M70 sometime early next year with similar hashrate but more like 19w/th or so.

لا اريد ان ابدو كشخص سيء او بدون مشاعر, ولكن ماهذا الذي تفعله؟ هل تتوقع انه يوجد شخص بدرجة سداجة كافية ليقرض شخص غريب اول منشور له في القسم العربي يطلب فيه قرض؟ بحساب جديد بالكاد تجاوز عمره الشهر وباجمالي تعليقات لم يتجاوز ال 5 تعليقات جلها غير مفيد وغير متعوب عليه؟

انا متأكد بنسبة 100% انك لن تتحصل على قرض حتى وان كانت الفائدة 100%, فما بالك بقرض ب 0% فائدة.

Your S9 does 14TH/S, meaning it attempts 14000000000000 times every second, every hash it produces is an attempt on its own, nothing changes on what the miner does before or after a block is found, miners do the exact same thing (hashing at a certain speed), the only thing that changes is the "detail" they include in that work, so when a block is found the pool will notify the miner about it.

This is the simplest explanation I could come up with, if you want to understand more or have more questions I suggest you start your own topic in this section https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=14.0

Fine then, I am in

12) 0.51 to   1.00% Mikeywith

If I win, I will donate the prize to charity, will give you the fund raise address directly.

Thanks for making this contest, is it okay if we tag people from other boards or you want to keep this miners only game?

Statistically speaking the first 10 are less likely to happen, and so are the last 10, the first 4 are almost guaranteed not to happen along with the last 5, this leaves the more likely options to more than 15 and that would anything the falls between -1 to +5%, more so the -1 to 2% has the highest chance, so anyone who understand how difficulty usually performs will have a better chance guessing what's it going to be next.

You might want to reduce the steps from 0.5% to 0.25% to make things more difficult to guess and to allow more people to participate in the reasonable ranges.

Do you have any pictures of the chip you changed on the control board? and how did you know it was indeed that chip that needed replacing? fixing a miner CB is no easy task, anyone who attempts that needs to be highly skilled and know what they are doing, the fact that you are asking this question makes me think you are just trying to learn, and I hope that is the case because fixing a control board of an old miner that is worth less than $100 like the T15 is a waste of time and energy.

So the miners have been working fine for 6 months, and you did not make any change in the network setup, how come nobody suspected a virus in this story? out of all the possible scenarios out there, the best thing that matches your story would be "your miners got infected with a virus".

Do you use the default password on all miners? did you buy any of them used?

I mean, if you have not updated your router firmware or added an extra router / managed switch or any change of that nature, it's most likely a virus, you are going to need to Sdcard all of them (or do the equivalent for those CB without Sdcard slot), then you need to find out where did the virus come from? isolate the network, and don't use the old pc/laptop you used to access them.