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1221  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: S17+ Wont mine, socket failed to connect, total packet loss on: January 20, 2023, 08:14:59 PM
The 17 series is the worst thing made by mankind, there is nothing much you can do to make them survive longer, the main issue is in the solder quality between the chips and the board itself, running them cooler delays the issues from happening and that is it.
1222  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: S17+ Wont mine, socket failed to connect, total packet loss on: January 20, 2023, 01:49:37 PM
I may consider taking you up with telegram (which I don't have yet) and anydesk. I am scared of stranger danger though...

The fact that you got to connect to the pool even for a while eliminates the network related issues, which means you no longer need my help in network diagnoisis, your issue is now hardware related and I am not the best person for that.

One thing I know is that if all temp sensors are acting weird it usually means a bad PSU, so you might need to replace the PSU, if it turns out to be actually sensor issues, it will require a pro to fix it, not something the average person can do, there is a pinned thread in this sections that is dedicated to repair services which you can check.

Although with all honesty, that gear is worth less than 300$ fully working with no issues, fixing it will cost probably 100-200$, with shipping and all that you may go past the 300$.
1223  Local / العربية (Arabic) / Re: شراء فيزا كارد افتراضية بالبتكوين on: January 20, 2023, 10:47:48 AM

فعلا أخي قمت بشراء جهاز ssd driveعلى الموقع و قمت بإختيار نسبة التخفيض 15% في تاريخ 17/01 إلى حد الساعة لم يتم ملىء طلبي هذا ما إعتقدته أن العملية ستأخذ من أربع أيام أو أكثر.

كما أني أشكر أخي مايكي على المعلومة الموقع الذي يقدم خدمة الشراء و الدفع بالبتكوين و يدعم أيضاً شيكة البرق.صراحة الموقع جعلني أتخلى على خصم البطاقة.

نسبة التخفيض التي طلبتها من الصعب الحصول عليهما، ركز في الجدول الذي ارسلته اليك، استخدم النسب الموجودة ف اول عمود من اليسار لزيادة نسبة تنفيد امر الشراء
1224  Local / العربية (Arabic) / Re: شراء فيزا كارد افتراضية بالبتكوين on: January 18, 2023, 09:57:51 PM
نفس الشئ بالنسبة لأمازون ألمانيا. كما يمكن للأخ اوفين اختيار التخفيض الذي يريده في صفحة الدفع، لكن يمكن أن يأخذ الأمر عدة أيام قبل أن يقوم عضو بملأ طلبه، خاصة ان كان التخفيض كبيرا.

في العادة وباستخدام تخفيض 5% والذي هوا في الواقع بعد العمولة يكون حوالي 1-2% فقط, يتم قبول امر الشراء خلال دقائق.

ايضا لقد اكتشفت طريقة تسرع عملية الشراء حتى بالنسب الكبيرة وهي عبر فهم الحسابات وحدود التخفيض لل earners

فمثلا اي شخص يريد تنفيد امر شراء وهوا بمستوى new user عليه ان يشتريه بتخفيط 27%
المستوى 2 عليه ان يقبل طلب بشراء بقيمة 24%
المستوى 3 عليه ان يقبل طلب شراء بقيمة 21%

يمكن الاستعانة بهدا الجدول لفهم القصة اكتر https://support.purse.io/en/article/earner-levels-limits-1e7n6tz/

بالمجمل, يجب ان يكون التخفيض التي تطلبه في احد هده المستويات لتزيد من فرصة قبول طلب الشراء, فمثلا لو قمت بطلب تخفيض بقيمة 26% فهنا المستخدمين الجدد لايمكنهم قبول طلبك, والمشتركين بمستوى 2 سيجدون عروض اخرى ب 24% فلن يقومو بقبول طلبك حتى نفاد الطلبات الاخرى, ارجو ان تكون هده المسئلة واضحة.
1225  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: citb0in Solo-Mining Group - BLOCK SOLVERS (english) on: January 18, 2023, 12:06:53 PM
In my opinion, two different statements are considered, both of which are correct and are unintentionally mixed, which is why they lead to different opinions.

I have to disagree, akaki put and end to all speculation by saying

Quote
[chance with 50 PH/s for 3h] > [chance with 25 PH/s for 6h] > [chance with 5 PH/s for 30h]

The quoted statement is just wrong, the correct statement would be

Quote
[chance with 50 PH/s for 3h] = [chance with 25 PH/s for 6h] = [chance with 5 PH/s for 30h]

or

Quote
[chance with 50 PH/s ] > [chance with 25 PH/s ] > [chance with 5 PH/s ]



Quote
What akaki meant is that the odds calculation related to the block is correct. To illustrate it in another example: you have a dice and the goal is to roll a six. You are only allowed to roll once every 10min. To the question "What is the chance to roll a six?" the correct answer is always the same, it is "1/6", so the probability is 0.16667 % to roll a six. Just because you are allowed to roll again the dice 10min later, it does not mean that the probability to roll a six increases. It always and steadily remains 1/6.

I don't think this is what he meant, but anyways, this illustration is wrong, there is no such thing as "roll once every 10 min" you roll as often as you can, it's just that difficulty that "ensures" you only get 2016 six in 2 weeks assuming you don't increase the rolls.


Quote
What the creator of the solochance.com website and many others do is: they multiply/divide the probability of a block hit (related to the block) by the number of 10min periods and thus mix the result with time. However, the time factor has no consideration in the probability calculation. The result of the thus faked probability is thereby glossed over.
 

The numbers on solochance.com are perfectly correct, looking at akaki post history, I am surprised to why he is confusing himself, he seems to be pretty good at math, maybe missing the logic.


Let's clear up some confusion:

The difficulty adjusts based on the time it took to solve the previous 2016 blocks (more like 2015 blocks due to some bug in the code but can be ignored for now)

So, if the difficulty of the previous epoch was 10 units, and the time it took to solve 2016 blocks was 2 weeks, the difficulty will stay at 10 units, this brings the question, how did the pace of finding blocks get to exactly 2 weeks or 10 minutes average block time? it's because the NUMBER of hahses produced by miners remained the same.


So epoch A had a diff of 10 units and the number of hashes was 1000, based on the difficulty of 10 those 10000 shares can only possibly find 2016 blocks in a period of 2 weeks/avg block time was 10 mins.

see that 10 units of difficulty couldn't care less how the 1000 hahses were generated, if all the miners shutdown their gears for 13 days and do manage to hash 1000 hashes on the 14th day, the block average will still be 10 mins and thus no diff change will accur.

using the dice analogy, you are required to roll 6 at the first epoch, the protocol wants you to hit just one 6 every 10 mins, if you manage to hit more 6s in under 10 mins, the requirement will change, and you are now forced to roll two 6s in a row, now that will need 10 mins to happen, if you do more rolls and manage to hit two 6s in less than 10 mins you will be required to roll three 6s and so on.

while rolling a die every time is an independent event, you will still hit a 6 on average every 6 rolls, you can test it yourself, roll a dice 60000 times and you will likely get 10000 six Cheesy,

Still at the dice analogy, the bitcoin dice is actually 2^256, the number of dice sides that can solve a block is determined by the difficulty/target, simply put, with the current difficulty of 37.89T every hash has 1 in 37,885,054,421,573 chance of hitting a block.

let's do more math for fun, the time it takes you to find a block is

time in seconds = difficulty * 2^32 / hashrate in seconds

with 50PH the equation is

((37885054421573 * 2^32 / 50000000000000000) / (3600))  = 903 hours
 on average to hit a block, let this 903 hours sink in for a while because we will use it later, and by the way, the division by 3600 is just to convert seconds to hours.

so the above equation suggests that IF you hash 50,000,000,000,000,000 (50PH) every second for 903 hours, you are likely to hit a block, that is 50000000000000000*60*60*903 hashes in a total of 162,540,000,000,000,000,000,000 hashes submit over the period of 903 hours gets you a block on average.

*(60*60 to convert seconds to minutes > minutes to hours )


Now let's say I want to produce the same hashes in just 9.03 hours instead of 903 hours, 9.03 hours has 32,508 seconds, so 162,540,000,000,000,000,000,000/32,508 = 5,000,000,000,000,000,000 hashes/second ( 5000PH)

using the same equation above we now have

((37885054421573 * 2^32 / 5000000000000000000) / (3600)) = 9.03 hours.

now just for fun, I want to produce the same number of hashes over the course of 9,030 hours, without doing any more equations, I know I can just hash at 5 peta hash/second for 9,030 and still get the same result as 50PH over 903 hours, but while the calculator is still open, why not?

5 petahash = 5000000000000000

((37885054421573 * 2^32 / 5000000000000000) / (3600)) = 9039 hours.


Notice how everything here revolves around the total number of hashes (162,540,000,000,000,000,000,000), if I hash them at a rate of 50PH/S i need 903 hours, if I hash them at 5000PH/second all I need is 9.03 hours, if I hash them at 5PH/second I'll need 9039 hours.

By now, it should be clear that it's all about the TOTAL NUMBER of hashes you submit, so back to Nicehack or any rental services, you actually pay per HASH, when you go buy those 162,540,000,000,000,000,000,000 hashes on nice hash you will pay x BTC and it's up to you how fast you want to "consume" them.

for economical reasons and supply/demand, it's sometimes wiser not to put massive orders in the order book as that could trigger a price increase.


Also, it's perfectly fine and correct to say

Quote
for example that there are 144 blocks mined each 24h (=1 each 10 min) and thus if we run the miner 24h non-stop we multiply our chances by 144.

akaki insisted that you can't say so, not sure what's the reasoning behind it, the difficulty does keep block inteverals at 10 minutes average, so using 144/day to get a daily chance for x hashrate/second is perfectly correct.















1226  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: S17+ Wont mine, socket failed to connect, total packet loss on: January 18, 2023, 04:22:31 AM
You do have an issue with temp sensor but has nothing to do with ping/diagnostics , send me your telegram id in PM, let us arrange for anydesk session so I can help troubleshoot this faster if you want. (For free of course).

Not being able to ping suggests a network-related issue, probably something wrong with the DNS settings, or maybe your firewall, could be one of a few things, there are a few things that I can trouble shoot in 15 mins if I have access to the miner, whereby I'll need double or triple the time explaining it and then probably even more time on your side to perform them, so if anydesk is not an option, please just start by checking your DNS.
1227  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: citb0in Solo-Mining Group - BLOCK SOLVERS (english) on: January 17, 2023, 10:22:26 PM
If the project of @Willi9974 is also based on the assumption that we increase the chances by mining for longer periods of time, then a lot of people might be loosing their money.

They do not increase the chances by mining for a longer period with a lower hashrate, but also, no one is losing money, I am not sure why are you taking the time factor out of the equation when you are hashing against x for x period.

To put this in a simpler form, when you pay 100$ you get 100 shares, in other words, 100 shots to solve a block, whether you take those chances in 1 minute or over the course of 10 days it makes exactly no difference, the chances of those 100 shares hitting a block remain the same.

What really matters here is the TOTAL NUMBER of shares you submit, not how FAST you submit them, every share is an independent event that has the ability to be a block solver, if what you think is true then mining pools would operate in a different manner.

Binance and Viabtc will join forces to increase their hashrate, say each has 10EH worth of hashrate, they would mine for Binance wallet with 20EH for 12 hours, and then 20EH for Viabtc wallet for the remaining 12 hours, and then at the end of the day, they would end up with more coins than having mined individually for 24 hours with 10EH each, that is not true by any means.

The fact is, that 20EH produced 20EH per second for 12 hours which is the same number of shares that 2*10EH*24 hours, you are missing a major point here which is the power you rent is sold as in Hashes per SECONDS.

And as for the Gambler's fallacy, it has nothing to do with why OP's initial numbers are correct,  not sure why he agreed to your claim and changed the post. Cheesy


If anyone still thinks that 50PH for 3 hours doesn't have the exact same chances of hitting a block with 25PH for 6 hours, go ahead and email all the large 10 pools that make up 90% of the hashrate and tell them you found a cheat code for mining, let them join their 300EH together and mine to one wallet every 24/10 hours so they can increase their chances of hitting blocks and end up with more BTC by the end of the month.
1228  Economy / Reputation / Re: Kano and his dirty games on: January 17, 2023, 09:48:06 PM
when you sent me a private message

That is not so nice of you to disclose what went on in a "private message", and ya I know they are not encrypted, some other folks can access and read them, but still, I think it's a terrible idea to make the content of a PM public just to win an argument.

Also, I do agree with n0nce, Kano deserves some respect despite his personality, I think most people who interacted with him know his behavior is one of the worst you can find, things are not much different with CK according to many people (I have not interacted with him well enough to judge), but ya, it seems pretty normal for most of these nerds not to blend in well with people easily. Cheesy, I mean you can't get along with all the different things in life.

Here is a piece of advice from a random online persona, you are doing great stuff in the form and you seem to have a lot of power to move forward, it's too early to pick up fights with forum members, and you are also probably still young and have your ways to go, an old fudge like me can mess around with Kano or anyone else whenever I feel like it because I am done with  Cheesy, but you, should focus on bringing people closer to you, Kano has a good audience base, by keeping this "fight" going, you are just losing more people, sometimes the best way to win an argument is to back off, I have had a dozen of arguments with Kano over the years, none led to anywhere, some brought up some good technical discussion, but in general it was all just a waste of keyboard strokes and a waste of some bytes in the forum's server for the good part of it.

I think you should give Kano a pass, and focus on the good work you do.

1229  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: S17+ Wont mine, socket failed to connect, total packet loss on: January 17, 2023, 07:57:51 PM
Oh wow, zeusbtc has a new account here but it's weird he is promoting a different link instead of their own guide.

What guide? nobody wrote a better guide on the 17 series temp sensor than mine  Cheesy, jokes aside, I just noticed they used my guide in their post, and to be honest most of the knowledge I acquired regarding the 17 series when dozen of issues were coming my way when I bought those piece of shit gears actually came from ZeusBTC, they were probably the only reliable source of information, I "mined" the info they had online, got in direct touch with the founder whom I had a good relationship with, they never failed to provide me with the info I needed, add to that my awful experience with those gears which made me eager to learn about them, so ya I might have summed up the issue better, but ZeusBTC still remains the source of the most of that knowledge (gotta give credit where credit is due).
1230  Local / العربية (Arabic) / Re: شراء فيزا كارد افتراضية بالبتكوين on: January 16, 2023, 10:04:49 PM
للمهتمين، لقد قام أحد الأعضاء في القسم الانجليزي بمشاركة رابط بطاقة جيدة و التي يبدو أنه يمكن استخدامها من دون تعريف الهوية[1]

أنا شخصيا لم أجرب البطاقة، لذلك لا يمكنني التعليق ما أذا كانت جيدة أم لا.

[1] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5280997.msg61580212#msg61580212

البطاقة تبدو جيدة, ولكن الرسوم غالية بعض الشي, فرسوم 4.1% التي تحدث عنها فقط لقيمة 1000$, اما دون ذلك فنسبة الرسوم تزيد, مثلا عند تعبئة 100$ الرسوم 9.5 دولار يعني 9.5% , مبلغ 50$ رسومه 7.75 دولار يعني 15.5%, مما يعني ان استخدام هده البطاقة بقيم صغيرة غير مجدي ابدا بينما استخدامها ب 1000$ وما فوق يعتبر جيد جدا خصوصا للاشخاص الذين يستخدمونها للتجارة, فشحن مبلغ 5000$ تدفع عليه رسوم فقط بقيمة 3.62% وهده النسبة ممتازة.


مشكور أخي على مشاركة المعلومة، أحب دائما إستخدام هذه البطاقة للإقتناء من الأسواق عبر النت خصوصا أمازون و لا أعلم إن كانت تدعمها. في الأيام القادمة سأقوم بتجربتها إن شاء الله لأعرف إن كانت تقضي الحاجة و سأشارك معكم النتائج.
 

ان كنت تريد الشراء من امازون امريكيا او بريطانيا, استخدم Purse.io السداد يكون بالبتكوين وبدون اي رسوم, في الواقع تتحصل على تخفيض جيد عند الشراء.
1231  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: Stealth mining on: January 16, 2023, 09:23:01 PM
Get a new router that is programmed to only connect via a VPN and use that for mining?

Yes, any router that has VPS support will work, and the whole network will be running under VPN, or get a proper router like Mikrotik and rent a VPS somewhere close to you and route all your packets encrypted through that VPS, and your ISP will see that you are connecting to a server in (Germany, Norway) but they won't know exactly what you are doing, the process won't be simple, you will need to have some networking background and use a bit of googling, it's a matter of setting up some L2TP / IPSEC tunnel with some encryption like AES256, some of those algos are weak but then keep in mind the stronger the slower, so you want to find a sweet spot.

If you don't feel like going all that, just get a VPS router, many TPlinks come with easy-to-set-up VPN interfaces, and no skills are required, but the downside is, your ISP will know that you are using a VPN, they just won't know what those packets have in them unless they want to spend the money and time to decrypt them, which is unlikely.

I can't tell for Solo mining, but with pool mining, connected to a VPS in a different continent, using both SHA1 and AES256, there is exactly 0 issues, no rejected/stale shares, and everything works exactly the same when the connection to the VPS or not, my VPS is in EU which is probably pretty close to the pool's server so that's some info to keep in mind, I would assume if the VPS was in Japan and the pool server was in the U.S, with all the delay I am adding, that would probably trigger some lost shares along the way.

I have also tested the same router with Nord VPN, with almost the exact same results.

Use a mining proxy like Antproxy, connect your miners to that proxy, and install VPN on the PC, and the problem is solved, of course, the downside is that you will need the PC to run 24/7, the proxy isn't 100% stable (I have yet to find a dead stable mining proxy) so you are going to write some scripts to watch it and restart it in case something goes wrong.

1232  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: January 16, 2023, 08:49:55 PM
Early numbers do not mean a lot.

If you catch them as early as I did, not just that they don't mean a lot, they simply don't mean anything at all, I managed to copy the status under 10 mins into the current epoch, so the "code' was expecting no blocks or actually 0.86 block, nothing unusual that 2 blocks came in under 10 mins which makes 0.86 vs 2 a whooping 233% percent pace, I know all folks who comment here know I was just joking about the 300% increase, but just in case someone doesn't, please ignore the status on the diff website when we are still early into the epoch.
1233  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: January 15, 2023, 09:18:43 PM

It was +10.256, vs 20% in price, if the price doesn't tank, we could see another 10% IMO.

the current numbers are


Quote
Latest Block:   772129  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   233.8662%  (2 / 0.86 expected, 1.14 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   34093570325203.84                           
Current Difficulty:   37590453655497.09                           
Next Difficulty:   between 37649493596979 and 150361814621988
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.1571% and +300.0000%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 11:07 PM  (+10.2567%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 10:47 PM  (in 5d 23h 31m 45s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 29, 2023 at 10:44 PM  (in 13d 23h 28m 33s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 5d 23h 40m 18s and 13d 23h 37m 6s

the next difficulty change projection is crazy lol, I wonder what it would take for a 300% increase in difficulty in a single epoch with the current difficulty, probably some aliens with a better tech in hand can do that.
1234  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: January 12, 2023, 02:01:45 AM
Ja, most odd that their large ad at the top says 220-277VAC and yet the detail specs say 200-277V.
Bitmain. Roll Eyes

Quote
My guess is that for running on a lower line you have to run at reduced speed.

I can't tell for sure, but I know the other models which I either owned personally before divorcing Bitmain or installed to some clients did run well at full speed at as low as 200V, they probably do factor that in their PSU specs, in fact, I have not seen any electronic piece that wouldn't run just fine at 200v, in many countries (probably 50 or so), the 3P is actually just 380v and not 400V.

Where I live, for most places, the single-phase voltage would be in the 210v range at best, those living pretty close to the transformer/station might get 220v or slightly higher, the further you go the lower it gets, all the way down to 200v, sometimes even as low as 195v when demand on power is high the for some reason the power company doesn't touch the tap changer.

I know 200v for those who have 240v might seem pretty low, but it's pretty much normal, there is nothing fancy about any PSU running at full load on 200v, I know the S19 pro works fine at full speed at 200-210v, so does the S19, S17 and a few other models, so my guess this one will not be different.

that's over 20EH come online in the past 2 weeks.

Price went up 8% this epoch so far, natural gas prices are down like 50% this month so electricity prices must have dropped a good amount for many miners, so the majority of those 20EH could be old gears that were either offline for a while or were running at lower speeds, with the addition to some previous large orders from Bitmain are being delivered throughout the year.

1235  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: T19 Online Not Hashing on: January 12, 2023, 12:58:53 AM
Please use the code tag to post the kernel log.

The kernel log clearly states the following:

Code:
023-01-12 00:15:01 Chain[0]: find 0 asic, times 0
2023-01-12 00:15:16 Chain[1]: find 0 asic, times 0
2023-01-12 00:15:40 Chain[2]: find 0 asic, times 0

It simply means, all 3 hash boards are DEAD, but that alone isn't conclusive.

Tell us more about the miner's history, was it running before and just stopped out of a sudden? did you just buy it? are you sure the pool is correct? did you try to flash new firmware?

If you just received a miner, chances are, the kernel log is accurate and you got a dead miner.

If it was running fine 2 days ago and then suddenly stopped, it's very unlikely that all 3 hash boards died at the same time, which means it's most likely a bad PSU, there is also something funny in the Kernel log which is this

Code:
2023-01-12 00:11:45 over max temp, pcb temp 17 (max 80), chip temp 32(max 95) pcb temp rise 0 chip temp rise 0, total_exit_failure 6

17 is < 80, as well as 32 < 95, so this error can't be accurate, which could be the result of a bad control board, so ya, tell us more about it, also do you have another similar miner which you can borrow a PSU/CB from?
1236  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: January 12, 2023, 12:33:41 AM
but of course it also screws folks running 200-208v  for their main power Wink

Not really, the operation input voltage is stated in their specs as well (200~277v), I don't know what do they mean by 25A, probably the power cord is able to carry 25A, or they are just being extra careful to not take any legal responsibility, but 20A is more than enough even accounting for the lowest voltage of 200V + 20% buffer gets you to 20.13A, if I were to buy one of these I would comfortably run them on 20A, I run some power-hungry Whatsminer that suck nearly 3500w, sometimes when the demand on power is so high the voltage drops to 210v and stays there for a couple of hours,  it puts me at 16.6A, on a 20A/socket PDU, I have not had any issues.

Also, most PDUs out there (the ones for mining at least) will come 20A sockets, even the largest mining PDU I saw is 160A per phase, with 8*20A ports on each phase, this is probably one of the reasons why Bitmain, Whatsminer, Avalon and etc, are not going past 3500W per miner, actually going past that on a single phase is just asking for troubles, it would require the re-making/re-building of so many stuff.

1237  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: January 10, 2023, 11:47:42 PM
Quote
As expected, to keep the 3-3.5kw 'sweet spot' I bet all they did is pile in more chips and use their lower power FW to do it... Roll Eyes

And no more 2 wires supplying the PSU, so now a single 20A socket is a must for this model, they seem to be catching up with the custom PSUs that some folks like Alpha make, supporting the 277V, many U.S based factories or industrial business, in general, have 480V three-phase wye wiring coming in the building, so they lowest they can go with Phase to Neutral is 277V, the previous models were not compatible with such voltage and people needed to replace the original PSU.

These are just more signs that Bitmain and the others don't give a flying fudge about home miners anymore, maybe it's about time for those waiting for a 500-1000w home miner from Bitmain to give up.
1238  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: January 10, 2023, 01:49:13 PM

in this zone diff leads price which most people think wtf.

but strong downward move in diff and prices dragged.

this jump strong move up in hash and prices lifted.

I don't really think diff lead prices directly, some investors might use the hashrate as an indicator for the overall strength of the BTC ecosystem and inject more money when they see miners are building and are confident, but no direct impact whatsoever in my opinion.

In fact, even the other more popular claim that price leads diff isn't all that accurate, people can say whatever they want for almost a year now we have been going down in price and up and in diff, this happened before as well, if 1 year isn't long enough to arrive to the conclusion that price doesn't "directly" affect hashrate then I don't know what is!

I think the most accurate word to be used is "profitability" which has a lot more stuff in it than just the price direction, any gains in gear efficiency will cause a diff spike, any drop in power prices will cause it, and more lenders willing to give money to miners will lead to diff jumps, any drop in gear manufacturing cost will lead to diff spike, and of course, the opposite is also correct.

The only time when diff-price start to have a direct correlation while ignoring everything else is when a defined equilibrium is reached by all miners, you have x number of miners, x of them pay x $ per KhW, and none of them can afford to add new gear, none of them is forced to sell/shutdown, some of them are mining at almost breakeven, at this stage (which is very difficult to be at) you will see a very direct and fast impact caused by price change, a 2% drop in price will most likely to a 2% drop in hashrate, and vice versa.

Without being in such a status, we don't know what we don't know, we don't know if someone figured out a way to access 5000MW at 1 cent and has 10 billion $ in the case and is going to go all in, such an operation can still happen even if the price was to take another dive to 10k, so most people assume a drop to 10k means 100% a huge drop in difficulty which isn't true, it might be true for your own operation that 10k isn't profitable for you, it could still be profitable for 90% of the other miners.

With that said, and given that it's extremely unlikely for anyone to find a 5000KW at 1 cent, we know a 50% increase in hashrate while price is 17k is very, very unlikely, even if said person does manage to find it, we know many others pay 5-6 cents and will be forced to shut down if this 5GW guy fires his gears,  we just don't know what a 50% increase in hashrate will exactly mean to every individual miner out there, will 25% of them be mining at loss? maybe only 10% of them will, so maybe 100EH in vs 10EH out, the other miners will still mine on just with a lot less profit.

So what we try to do here isn't something you can take to the bank or include in a scientific research paper, but we know the average power rate for the large guys at least is anywhere between 3-5 cents, and their gear efficiency is between 25-35w/th, we know that at 10k BTC most of them will be mining at a loss, we know that a 50% drop aka 50% drop in profitability isn't something they can take so it either doesn't happen at all or does happen only to be wiped out but whoever decides to leave first.

But all these assumptions we make are subject to being very inaccurate.
1239  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: January 09, 2023, 11:41:02 PM
Yep lets argue you have 100000 s19 pro they do 3kwatts and 100th or 2kwatts and 82th

flip flop in a few minutes when needed will be the norm.

So you are burning 300000 kwatts a hour and 10eh or 200000 kwatts an hour and 8.2 eh

now the move above would be a 300mw mining farm and I am not sure if one does exist at that size.

Keep in mind that 100000 S19 pros don't have to be in the same farm, they can be in a thousand different farms, they don't have to be in the same location, they just need to have a similar power rate to act similarly.

@Dave, everything is possible, but a few large jumps at current prices are unlikely to be sustained, we are talking about the latest generation gears at 5 cents, let alone the other fewer effienct gears, with the coming difficulty jump life will be a lot more difficult for those who have the latest gear + below average power rate, even if someone is willing to invest more money, someone else will have to leave, without a good price increase I don't see how a few large diff jumps can happen or even if they happen, not sure how can they be sustained.

But this market is crazy, you can only tell for sure when time has passed.
1240  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: January 08, 2023, 10:18:33 PM
So we will get into that 5-6-7 cent range almost always when this happens hash drops a bit.

As these are the break even numbers.

we almost never drop to 4-5-6 cent range for a diff drop trend to happen.

Of course a simple price rise to 25k fixes a lot of issues for miners.

I am also starting to expect a similar scenario, where the difficulty will be moving in a narrow range just like the price does for a good while, I think there is a good amount of idle hashrate that's ready to go on with a click of a button, many gears probably run underclocked after a diff spike, and then back stock/overclock right after a drop.

So something like 3-7% up in difficulty  > switch to underclock / power off, causes difficulty drop which leads to > go back to stock/overclock or power on, rinse and repeat, in fact, this has been happening for the last 6 epochs starting from the 23rd of November the difficulty change has been + - + - + - and now are about to print a +, which means we are very likely to print a - for the following epoch, rinse and repeat until a new equilibrium is made.
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