112% pace is right around where we spent nearly half of the previous epoch before starting to slow down to 5-7%, if we were to do the same thing again, then around the middle if the epoch we would start falling and thus again creating the same pattern that does not seem to make sense.

It is, doesn't matter how you look at it.

Bitcoin had only 4 cycles, looking at the price appreciation from cycle top to the next cycle top gives you a total of 3 (since the first one had no previous cycle).

Cycle 1 to 2 > 3500%
Cycle 2 to 3 > 1560%
Cycle 3 to 4 > 240%

For this cycle to go to 1M, it has to do 1360% from the 70k top, when it had that 1560% the market cap was just a couple of billion, pretty easy to move, to do that now, you are going to need 4.5 trillion, to go from 300B (the current bottom of the cycle) to 4.5 trillion is way too unrealistic, that's almost half the market cap of Gold which has been there for thousands of years with all governments, banks, and women buying it.

To me, all those models and predictions are just to trick people into buying their bags and not selling before the whales do, the last cycle we had all those experts talk about 100k-200k top, they got the average joe waiting for those figures and they existed at 70k, now they are promoting the 1M and the 500k and they will probably exit at 200k.

لا اختلف معك بخصوص هده النقطة فتخزين مبالغ كبيرة من الاموال الورقية في المنزل امر صعب, تخزين مليارات من الكريبتو هوا امر اسهل, ولكن هدا صحيح فقط من الناحية العملية, ما كنت اتكلم عنه بالمجمل هوا "العقلية" او "العقيدة" التي يتملكها معظم البشر, فهم لايريدون تحمل مسؤوليات كبيرة وهده طبيعة بشرية, فمثلا الاحتفاظ ب 10000$ في المنزل امر بسيط من الناحية العملية, وهدا المبلغ خصوصا في الدولة الفقيرة يمثل ثروة, ومع ذلك تجد ان معظم البشر يضعون اموالهم في البنوك حتى وان كانت قيم صغيرة يمكن تخزينها في المنزل, ان عدت بالماضي لطفولتك مثلا, ستجد انك دائما تفضل ابقاء اموالك (التي تمتل بضع الجنيهات او الدنانير) مع احد والديك فهدا يشعرك بالامان بدل ان تضعها في جيبك وتخرج بها للعب او للدهاب للمدرسة, عقلية الخوف والتهرب من المسؤولية تصقل منذ الصغر, البعض منا يغير من اطباعه اما البقية فلا.

ربما يبدو الامر غير منطقي بالنسبة لنا كأشخاص متعمقين في مجال الكريبتو, ولكن انا متأكد ان 90% من اصدقائي واقاربي يفضلو وضع اموالهم في البنوك, البعض منهم لايمتلك الكثير, فيمكنه مثلا شراء بعض الدهب ودفنه تحت بلاط المنزل, او تحويله الى دولار او او او, ولكن دائما لديهم هاجس الخوف من ضياع تلك الاموال, تلفها, سرقتها و و و , هدا السبب الاساسي الذي يجعل البنوك حول العالم تشتغل, والا فمن المنطق ان كل البنوك ستقفل ابوابها.



اختلف جدا معك هنا, حتى بالنسبة لي كشخص ربما يمكن اعتباري قديم ومحترف في المجال لا زالت اعتقد ان استعمال المنصات اسهل بكثير, ولكي ابسط عليك الامر ولا اعيد كلام الاخ خالد, يجب عليك ان تتذكر ان معظم الناس يمتلموك شفرة موبايل ويعتبرون التعامل بها امر بسيط وبديهي, فعليا وعمليا هدا كل ماتحتاجه لاستخدام المنصة, تنشاء حساب برقم جوالك او ايميل (وهوا ايضا معروف لمعظم الناس), وكل ماعليك تذكره هوا كلمة سر قصيرة وحسابك محمي با 2FA برسالة نصية تصلك على رقم الموبايل.

معظم الناس قد قامو مسبقا بفتح حسابات في البنوك, او منصات التواصل الاجتماعي والامر يعتبر عندهم بسيط جدا, في المقابل, تحميل المحفظة واستعمالها امر فيه الكثير من الاشياء الجديدة, لايوجد 2FA, لايوجد اسم مستخدم وباسورد للدخول, مهما حاولت تبسيط الامور لاي شخص تبقا كل تلك الاشياء جديدة, وطبيعة البشر ان يخافو من اي شي جديد وغير مألوف, هل تعتقد ان كل الناس الذين لايمتلكون محافظ خاصة بهم ويضعون اموالهم كلها في المنصات لايعرفون بخطر المنصات ولم يسمعو بأنهيارها؟ ومع ذلك هم لايزالون يستخدمون المنصات.

مثال اخر, ان طلبت من 10 اشخاص تم اختيارهم بطريقة عشؤائية ان يفتحو حسابات داخل منصة باينانس, اعتقد ان 6-8 منهم سوف يقومون بذلك دون ان يواجهو اي مشاكل, في المقابل, ان ارسل لهم 10 محافظ Trezor or Ledger ربما 2 منهم فقط سوف ينجحون في تجهيز المحفظة بطريقة صحيحة وأمنة.

اعتقد هنا يجب التفريق بين قدراتنا وقدرات الاخرين, الجراح يرا ان فتح بطن المريض وازالة جزء منها امر بسيط جدا, بالنسبة لشخص مثلي ارا ان خلع احد اسنان اي شخص امر في غاية الصعوبة, الامر هنا نسبي, مايبدو سهلا وبسيطا لك كشخص محترف في هدا المجال هوا في الواقع صعب واحيانا شبه مستحيل للكثير من الناس الاخرين.

Not bad given that price kept its pace regardless of the interest rate hike.

Let's watch the first 500-1000 blocks of the coming epoch to see if the pattern we have been discussing repeats.


Hopefully you will receive them early next week.

Do you mean higher voltage? because usually that is the case, many hashboards will need lower frequency or/and higher voltage to run stable, higher frequency cases issues even to stable hashboards.

OP, since you like fixing stuff, the issue with that bad hashboard is kind of straight forward, the kernel log states



This means that the test signal stops at chip 15, it either reaches there and doesn't move to the next one, or simply just doesn't get there, so you are going to need to check chips 15 and 14, here is a good guide on how to proceed.

https://www.zeusbtc.com/manuals/Antminer-S9-Hash-Board-Repair-Guide.asp

القصة تكمن في عقلية الشخص, من تعود على وضع امواله في البنوك بدلا من الاحتفاط بها في بيته او استتمارها في اشياء اخرى من الصعب عليه ان يقرر فجاءة انه يريد الاحتفاط بامواله ويتحمل كافة المسؤولية تجاهها, وفي الواقع فأن لديهم وجهة نظر والامر ليس عبتي, وجهة نظر الكتير منهم ان الخطر في خسارة اموالك داخل المنصة مشروط بسقوط المنصة, اما خسارة اموالك داخل المحفظة قد يحدث بسبب خطاء ثقني تقوم به بنفسك, فهم يفضلون الرهان على قدرات المنصة ضد قدراتهم ولا يريدون الخوض في تحميل محفظة, التاكد من انها المحفظة الرسمية, الاحتفاط بالمفاتيح وكلمات السر, الامر نسبيا مقعد وهوا اشبه تماما بحفظ اموالك في المنزل, عليك ايجاد مكان امن, رمبا تحتاج لصنع مخباء خاص, او حفر الحائط ووضع الخزنة, وعليك تذكر رمز الخزنة, احيانا تذكر الرمز ولكن القفل قد صداء وعليك تغيره و و , في المقابل, اموالك في البنك, كل ماعليك هوا تذكر اسمك وتوقيعك وهدا اسهل بكثير مما سلف سرده بخصوص الاحتفاط بالمال في البيت.

طبعا الاحتفاط باموالك في البنك او المنصة يعتبر رفاهية, تحويل اسرع, وصول اسرع, مسؤولية اقل, وكل هده الاضافات لاتاتي مجانية, عليك ان تدفع ثمنها عند حدوث مشكلة في المنصة, مثل الثمن الذي تدفعه عند انهيار البنك التي تودع فيه اموالك.

I will by no means try to convince you or anyone else that a similar game is actually being played, not that I don't have the time for that, it's simply because I agree with you lol, I also find it hard to believe, it really makes little to no sense, the example I explained above was just to make understanding the theory that many people believe is true simpler. (by the way, took some time to through in all those numbers).

The main reason why I became interested in this theory is the repeating hashrate patterns, the second reason is that I believe if you disagree with something, it's always best to dig deep into it rather than to completely deny it, even if you think it's complete B.S, the end result of that digging is always going to do you good, you either find out that you were wrong about it all along, or you find more reasons as to why you were right about it from the get-go.

So, here we are digging a deep hole with a plastic spoon.



the word "sale" tho  . ROI is still a dozen months.

But you are correct, Whatsminer is doing the same, even worse, some gears are cheaper now than when BTC was at 20-24k, which is ironic, I paid 14.2$/th on M30s++ 2 weeks ago or so, I saw BTC go up, thought I was smart to have bought the dip, the next quote I got was cheaper, I don't have the slightest clue on why is that the case, but seems like the HYPE is slowing down, the first 17-18k to 24k wave got so many people excited, they rushed into buying gears, now they are not as excited, that is one theory I can think of.

It's more like a guaranteed chance the above is a scam, cloud mining simply doesn't work because the core idea behind it is broken, we can dive deep into all the "legit" cloud mining services that existed in the past and show how they all failed, but I can sum up a whole mess in a short explanation.

When the mining profit falls below the contract value or in other words, the buyer is losing money > cloud mining works.
When the mining profit yields more profit than the contract value, the buyer is making money while the seller is losing potential profit > cloud mining does not work.

So technically, the only way for anyone to make money from cloud mining would be when the hashrate they bought is making more money than what they spent, but who on earth would keep renting their cow that makes $10 worth of milk a day, for someone who pays $5 a day? history showed that nobody will do that, the cow owner is happy when the cow makes $1 and you rent it for 5$, but not the other way around.

In fact, history has proven to us that even hosted mining is broken, when your miners aren't making much profit, the host is happy to host them, when they are making much more money than what you pay for hosting, the host will rather kick you out and buy his own mining gears, and there is no type of contract that would keep you safe if you are not safe renting only the power outlet, you are certainly not safe renting the power outlet and the miner.

So even if you were to stumble upon a "honest" person who offers cloud mining service, you are going to make sure that when shit hits the fan and the miner they rent you for $5 a day is making $10 that person is going to win the battle against the devil and he won't get greedy and just end your contract out of nowhere, they might refund whats left of the contract, but will they watch you make a ton of money form gears they own and operate? I would certainly not bet on that.

Sorry guys I had to keep my hat in the closet, so I am posting without one for now.



If you don't know what the is, it's the Ichimoku Cloud, one of my all-time favorites, I used it back in the 2018 analysis and the more recent 2022 analysis.

Apart from how helpful it is to identify bottoms, it's also great in identifying local trend limits, if you check how the price behaved around the cloud back in 2015 and 2019, when the cloud is "red" and the price enters it, it usually doesn't stop until it hits the highest part of the cloud at the entry time.

Last week's candle did close INSIDE the cloud, with the highest line of the cloud sitting at $43,444, in the past 2 cycles we took an average of 7 weeks to reach that point, so could we see 43k around mid May!

It is a possible scenario, but as Kano mentioned, it should have a little impact, what some people seem to suggest is that miners will shutdown to keep difficulty low, let's imagine a scenario where ALL miners act the same and agree on the same logic.

Let's say we start the year with the following:

Scenario A

Epoch #1:

Difficulty at 10t, there are then ten guys mining BTC, each with 1 miner,  so a total of 10 gears, each gear gets 1/10 of the total reward

So after 2,016 and 2 weeks, every miner gets 201.6 blocks sent to his wallet.

Now they decide they want to make 201.6 blocks each but in a period shorter than 2 weeks.

epoch #2:

Those 10 guys buy an extra miner each

so

Diff at 10t, 20 miners, each miner gets 1/20 of the total reward, and each person still gets 1/10 ( takes only 1 week)

Epoch #3:

Diff at 20, 20 miners, each gets 1/20 of the total reward, and each person still gets 1/10 (takes 2 weeks) > back to square zero, but they are now burning double the power at epoch number 1.

So total mined coins will be 2,016*3 in 2+1+2 weeks, or 6,048 in 5 weeks.

Scenario B:

Epoch #1:
Difficulty at 10t, there are then ten guys mining BTC, each with 1 miner,  so a total of 10 gears, each gear gets 1/10 of the total reward

So after 2,016 and 2 weeks, every miner gets 201.6 blocks sent to his wallet.

Epoch #2:

mine the first 1,008 blocks with 20 gears, which will take only 3.5 days, turn off the new 10 gears and mine the remaining 1,008 with 10 gears which will take 1 week, so a total of 10.5 days as opposed to 1 week.

The next diff is going to be a 50% increase in difficulty.

Epoch #3:
diff at 15, 20 miners

mine the first 1,008 blocks with 20 gears, which will take 5.25 days, turn off  5 gears and mine the remaining 1,008 in 1 week with 15 gears

total reward = 6,048 in 2 weeks + 1 week + 3.5 days + 5.25 days + 1 week = 5.25

So 0.25 weeks more time or 5% more time by going with the second method, however, the power consumption difference is a follows

Scenario 1:

Assuming every miner needs 1kwh per day

Epoch 1 = 10 gears = 10khw a day * 2 weeks = 140 KwH total
Epoch 2 = 20 gears = 20 Kwh a day * 1 week = 140 KwH total
Epoch 2 = 20 gears = 20 Kwh a day * 2 week = 280 KwH total

Total power 560 KwH.

Scenario 1:
Epoch 1 = 10 gears = 10khw a day * 2 weeks = 140 KwH total
Epoch 2 = 20 gears for 3.5 days = 70KwH + 10 gears for 1 week = 70 = 140KwH total
Epoch 3 = 20 gears for 5.25 days  = 105KwH + 15 gears for 1 week = 105KwH = 210

Total = 490 KwH

which is 12.5% less power.


So more or less, 12.5% saving for 5% less reward

Now assuming all the players here use S19j Pro, and 6 cents per KwH, the miner pays 50% of its profit for the power bill

So if it makes 100$ in 3 epochs with scenario one, it nets only 50$ in profit
in Scenario 2, technically, it makes only 95$ but pays 12.5% less power so only 43.75 for the power which is 51.25$ net profit

50$ vs 51.25$ is  2.43% more profit by playing the diff game.

Keep in mind that this is based on everyone participating in the game and keeping their promise, the chances of anything similar happening is slim to nothing in my point of view.

The incentives need to be more than just direct profit/saving, I would lean more to a theory that suggests, Bitmain wants to grab some coins but not raise the difficulty to keep selling their gears at high prices, that might sound reasonable to some degree, but them turning off their gear to spare the network 1-2% diff increase, doing that alone is difficult to believe, unless someone thinks that there is really a mutual understanding between 70-80% of all miners to play a game as I explained in scenario 1.

That would be a double charge, it's like stealing a stolen car and then driving it around town, besides, while those farms are in a remote place, they do have some level of security, so it's not like anyone can easily break in, you are going to need enough time and tools to break in.


Electricity theft is an old thing, even with the new technology where most power meters are electronic and you can't slow down the spinning mechanism, people figured out ways to use EMPs to modify the meter or stop it altogether, so IMO, BTC mining hasn't changed anything in that regards, people just improved the result of their stealing.

Not going to work in your room unless you place the radiator outside, water simply moves heat faster than air, it doesn't magically get rid of that heat, if you can't modify the room by any shape or form, you will need to get a stronger AC, calculate your that total Watts and multiply them by 3.5 and that's the size of AC in BTU you are going to need to cool the room.

Cooling in theory is rather simple, it's either you move enough air to offset the CFM needed by each miner and that's done by installing enough exhaust fans and having enough intake space, or by sending the hot air outside using AC for air cooling miners a radiator for immersion cooling and/or water cooling, they all are based on the same logic, it's just the efficiency and cost that matters.

For now, try underclocking your miners to the lowest settings possible till you have figured out something.

 

Is it possible that your router's firewall is blocking the connection to the miner for whatever reason? do you have another router to test with? if not, you can just connect the miner directly to one of the miners, follow my step-by-step guide, and keep updating the topic, your problem is interesting, to say the least.

It is, I have seen it before, they go for the lowest dollar/th mining gears, and those usually ROI in 2-3 months, with the cabling and whatnot, they would be looking at 4-5 months ROI, it's a hit and run, they would deploy a few small farms here and there and hope for the best. When 4-5 months have passed anything that was not captured by the police will be running at 100% profit.

The funny thing is the government would sell those confiscated gears on auction and guess who would buy gears that don't make any profit if the power bill is paid?

Of course, this illegal probably everywhere, and you will be facing two types of risks, one is the police, and two is theft since those locations are remote and hard to secure, so in a nutshell, nobody should do it, but many people have been doing it for years, just goes out to show that if your power rate is that low (in their case is zero) little no management is needed.

Mining on small PPLNS is too risky, the variance could be unbearable and results in bankruptcy,  it is too late for not to "make pools too large" even those small PPS pools are nothing but a proxy to a larger pool, there is nothing much we can do about it, we would just assume that those pools would make more money playing fair which is almost always the case.

This sucks, and by the way, I think the basic version of this tank does not come with a heat exchanger, which means you can't re-use the heat generated by the miners, my understanding of immersion cooling is that there are two types, a single loop, and a dual loop, the tank you bought looks to be using a single loop, the miners are soaked into the liquid, a pump sucks in the liquid from the top of the tank into the radiator /dry cooler, gets cooled down, and sent back to the bottom of the tank.

Using this setup, you have no way to redirect the heat to a place like a swimming pool, but can be used to heat a living room or whatever space that dry coolers blow hot air against.

The second type would be dual loop cooling, this setup uses a heat exchanger, which has 2 inputs and 2 outputs.

1- Input from the cooling liquid.
2- Input from the water source (swimming pool or whatever).
3- Output of the now "cooler" liquid to be sent back to the tank.
4- Output of the now "hotter" water to be sent back to wherever you want (the swimming pool again).

So basically the heat exchanger will take the heat from the liquid cooling and transfer it to the water without these two mixing together, you can probably build your own tank that does this, since you are located in the U.S and that's where most of the good grade cooling liquid is made, the concept is rather simple at least on paper.

-A tank that can hold 2 Whatsminers (can be made of glass or some strong metal).
-50-60L of cooling fluid (probably costs 300-500 for a good grade).
- A small pump.
- A heat exchanger.
- A dry cooler.

Of course, the final shape and those LEDs and fan control come at an extra cost, and they will be some trial and error, so a ready-to-use tank like the one you use has some merit, I would just confirm with them that it comes with a heat exchanger aka "dual Loop" system so that you guys can actually use it to heat the pool.

Try using a different browser, also, make sure you disable any antivirus software running on your PC, since you mentioned that you were able to access them in the previous site, I suggest you stop troubleshooting in the miners' direction and rather focus on the PC's direction, does your router have wireless connection? if so, try to access them using a mobile phone to access the miner.



Try typing the following instead.

I agree with the second part, but I'm afraid I have to disagree with the first part, Antpool aka Bitmain's pool has been nothing but honest, they claim to have a 0% PPLNS payment system, and to this point in time, most users still believe they are mining there for free, what Bitmain keeps 'intentionally' hiding from them is the fact that while the pool doesn't charge them mining fees on the block reward itself, they keep 100% of the transaction fees, that it could be anything from 0.1% to 10%.

So do I think Antpool will steal op's funds, probably not, but do I think Antpool is honest? hell no, no one should keep more than 1 day's worth of mining rewards or the minimum payout with any pool out there, I rather end up with a ton of small outputs and pay more fees than have a pool store my earnings.

This what I always thought, on the other hand, some people claim that this could be the case, something like what NFW mentioned and phill further explained it, and this patterns seem to be consistently repeating which is why I became interested in them, of course, we can always assume that it is just luck making average block time shorter in the first half/third of the epoch, but if it keeps happening on every epoch, the luck theory starts to lose it's weight against the former.

Signature and avatar updated.

The current post count including this one is (6948)

Thanks Royse777.