صحيح, فالامر هنا مبني على نقطتين, اولهم مايعرف بتأثير الدومينو, والتانية هي اسباب البداية, فالجميع يعلم الان ان احد الاسباب الرئسية لانهيار منصة FTX هيا انهيار عملتها FTT, الامر يطول شرحه ولكن يمكننا تلخيصه بتخيل ان شخص ما ولنقل ان اسمه " علي " يتلقا ودائع بعملات مختلفة من الناس ويقوم بالتحويل بينهم وياخد منهم جزء من الصفقة كرسوم لاتعابه, في هده الحالة كل الامور على مايرام, يقرر "علي" انشاء عملة خاصة به يقوم بأستخراجها من العدم ولا قيمة لها سوا انها تقدم لك تخفيض على الرسوم التي تدفعها, هنا يبدا القلق قليلا.

القشة التي تقسم ظهر البعير هي عندما يبداء "علي" في اعتقاد ان مايتنجه من عملته الخاصة يمكن اعتباره بنفس قيمة اموال المودعين, فيقول علي لنفسه, لدي مليار من اموال العملاء الحقيقية, لما لا اقوم بطباعة مليار من عملتي, فهنا يصبح اجمالي اموال المنصة 2 مليار, اقوم باستتمار نصف مليار من اموال العملاء ونص مليار من عملتي الافتراضية او اقوم باقراض المبلغ لشخص ما لكي يدفع لي 20% نهاية الشهر, وهنا تكون بداية الانهيار, عند بدء المتداولين في بيع عملتك قد تخسر 70% من قيمتها وهنا لايجدي كم تطبع منه لان السعر سوف يستمر في الانخفاض, الان انت نظريا تمتلك 0.3 مليار من عملتك, ونصف مليار فقط من اموال المتداولين, بينما تدين لهم بمليار كامل, لكن الاموال ليست بحوزتك الان, ولن تستطيع تلبية طلبات السحب, هنا سوف يزيد الظغط على عملتك لتصبح قيمتها اقرب للصفر.

الحصيلة النهائية الان هي انك لاتمتلك الى نصف مليار وتدين بمليار لعملاء المنصة , ونظرا لكل هده المشاكل فطلبات السحب قد تصل الى 0.75 مليار مثلا وانت لا تمتلك منها الى النصف, لو تركت العملاء يسحبون نص المليار الذي عندك هدا يعني انهيار المنصة فورا, فسوق تقوم بالماطلة, تضع صقف للسحب, تحجج بمشاكل ثقنية, تحاول شراء الوقت حتى تتمكن من اقتراض العجز الحاصل بقيمة نصف مليار, تقوم باخد قرض مقابل ماتبقى من اموال العملاء على امل ان تحصل على المزيد من السيولة, تبيع جزء من حصتك في المنصة, تحاول فعل كل شي لانقاد مايمكن انقاده بدون اي جدوى, وعندك تأكدك من السقوط, تقوم بتحويل كل مايمكنكك تحويله خارج المنصة لكي تستخدمه في تعين محامين واعطاء رشاوي للحكومة عندك محاكمتك, ولن تترك في المنصة الا فتاتت يتم تقسيمه على المتداولين بعد عشرات السنين ليحصل كل منهم على بضعة دولارات.


ماحصل ل FTX كان درسا جيدا لنا جميعا, عملات المنصات هي من اخطر العملات التي يمكن ان تتسمر فها, لا تضع اموالك في المنصات وان كنت محتاج لفعل هدا يجب عليك على الاقل ان تتبع اخبار المنصة والتقارير المالية وعندما تجد ان عملة المنصة تشكل جزء كبير من اصول المنصة يجب عليك ان تذكر FTX , عندما تسمع اي اشاعة عن اي منصة تضع فيها اموالك لا تحاول اقناع نفسك انها اشاعات زائفة و fud فهدا ماحدث للناس الذين كدبو كل الشائعات حول FTX , الاشخاص الاكتر ذكائا والاوفر حظا تمكنو من سحب اموالهم حتى بعد انتشار الفضيحة, اما الذين تشبتو باعتقادهم ان المنصة كبيرة على السقوط, او ان المنصة يملكها س من الناس او متواجدة في الدولة س, كل هده الاشياء لا تعني شي.

في واقع الامر ,العملات الورقية في صورة "الكاش" هي اكتر سرية وخصوصيا من العملات المشفرة, معظم عمليات الاجرام او الابتزاز تتم بالكاش, حيت يطلب من الضحية ارسال مبلغ مالي من الكاش الى دولة ما باستخدام "السوق السوداء" التي تكون فيها العملات مختلطة ويستحيل تتبعها, وعند استلام المجرم للمبلغ في دولة اخرى يمكنه بكل بساطة اعادة تبيضها وارسالها بشكل قانوني عبر البنوك, وتتبع مثل هدا النوع من التحويلات امر شبه مستحيل على عكس العملات المشفرة.

العملات المشفرة قد تقوم بانجاز العملية في وقت اسرع بكثير, ولكن منع تتبعها لن يكون سهلا ابدا خصوصا ان كان المجرم غير ملم بهده الثقنية, لذلك نجد في العادة ان المجرمين التقلدين مثل الخاطفين وغيرهم لا يلجأون للعملات المشفرة, بينما الهاكرز الذي تكون لديهم دراية كاملة بالعملات المشفرة يعرفون ان فرصتهم في اخفاء اثر العملة جيدة, ولكن ومع ذلك لا ننسى الفريق الصيني النصاب الذي تم التوصل اليهم بعد سنوات عديدة من اعتقادهم انهم قامو بقطع خيط التتبع حيت تم الايقاع باحد الاعضاء ومن ثم باقي الفريق.

ولكن على العموم, العملات المشفرة مثلها مثل العملات الاخرى ماهي الى "وسيط لنقل قيمة" واستخدامها بطريقة سيئة لا يعيبها في شي, فمثتلما طلب هاؤلاء الهاكرز المبلغ بالتبكوين, قد يقوم شخص ما بالتبرع بكامل المبلغ  للمصحة عن طريق البتكوين ايضا.

نشر Garlam تغيردة على حسابه في تويتر قائلا


اللنك: https://twitter.com/garlamwon/status/1611043605350866944

جاء هدا بعد تغيرده حول مخزون المنصة حيت ان 40% من اصول المنصة هي عملة المنصة نفسها, وشبه مايحدث لهوبي بما حدث ل FTX حيت كانت نسبة كبيرة من احتياطات تلك المنصة بالعملة الخاصة بهم التي يقومو هم بأنشاها بكبسة زر. (في الواقع عندما اطلعت على التقرير المالي للمصنة فالنسبة هي 44.36% وهدا اسواء من 40% على اي حال)

المشكلة الاخرى التي تعاني منها المنصة هي Justin sun فهدا الشخص له تاريخ غير نظيف وشخصيا لا اثق في هدا الشخص ابدا, وحتى ان كنا نريد تجاهل ماضيه, فلقد خرج علينا هدا الشخص منذ حوالي 5 ايام على مجلة  South China Morning لي ينفي خبر "التخلي عن جزء كبير من موظفين المنصة" ويقوم بتغير كلامه بعد تلاتة ايام ليقوم بتأكيد الشائعات حول عزم المنصة اقالة 20% من موظفيها!

الاخ "جاستن" قام بتحويل 100 مليون دولار من باينانس الى هوبي بعد طلبات السحب الكبيرة التي حدتث للمنصة عند اطلاق التقرير المالي, روج لها انها "دليل على ثقته في المنصة" بينما يراها الاخرون انها خطوة اجبارية احتاج لاخدها لكي يغطي العجز من العملات المستقرة في منصته.

طبعا نحن الان في سوق هابط, واي خبر صغير يمكن تضخيمه وربما تكون المنصة على مايرام, ولكن الامر يبدو شبيه بما حصل ل FTX شخصيا حتى وان كان هناك نسبة 1% لانهيار المنصة فلن اخاطر بها, ونظرا لان الوقاية خير من العلاج او كما يقول المثل الانجليزي Better Safe Than Sorry! اعتقد انه من الافضل ترك هده المنصة في الوقت الراهن على الاقل.

Everything you said makes perfect sense, but you also need to keep in mind that we are in a bear market, we are closer to the bottom than any other time in the past year. We are at a higher point in difficulty than we have ever been before, of course, not saying things couldn't get worse, but the point is, the numbers you run right now could be 2-5x in two years.

It would be perfect if you wouldn't risk anything and just wait for the market to get better, but then the four of you will have no way to buy 8PH worth of hashrate, if it's 14$ th now, that's a total of nearly 100k, if profitability is 5x better next year, it will take half a million dollars to buy that same hashrate, let alone 20PH when the price per terahash is back to the 40-50$ mark.

So think of it as somehow a future investment, won't be worth the trouble and the rides for maybe 1-2 years, but when the time comes, you would probably be willing to walk the same distance.

I think you did great being in a country that isn't so BTC mining friendly, the power cost and stuff were never on your side to start with, but you somehow managed to work it out for some time which is a huge achievement, the power bill was never a concern for me, which is probably how I managed to go this far to be honest.


Yes, sadly we are not alone lol, it's us the little guys against those ultra-rich folks, I think we stand a better chance in this business, but only time will tell, meanwhile not all of them are doing great, some are just starting to hit the wall.

200KW can easily hold 65 S19s pro, that's almost 6.5PH, with that hashrate you could probably hire someone to do the periodic maintenance stuff, doesn't have to be someone who knows a lot about mining or IT in general, just a good lad who knows how to use some tools like cordless drills and the other things which you can provide at the site, keep enough spares of PSUs, fans and what not, and just ask that person to clean all miners, change 2 fans on miner x and miner z, you won't have to go there as often.

Of course, to get to the mark where hiring someone makes sense you will need to at least be at the 2-3ph mark, that's like a 40-50k investment which you might not take right away, so maybe for the first few months you go there yourself, and when the money flow is good, you hire someone to do it, so if the deal is the same 50/50 split, I think it's a great chance.

I am a bit paranoid when it comes to my gears, I don't think using online websites that have direct access to your miners is a good idea, broadcasting the IP address of your router, the IP addresses, and login username/password for every single miner is something I am not willing to do.

My setup is rather simple, I use Anydesk and Remote desktop (Anydesk is recommended for beginners, don't use TeamViewer because after continuous access they will think you are using it for a "Business" and will block your access for a few hours unless you buy their expensive Business plan) to access a PC on site which is on the same network as the miners, the PC has AwesomeMiner installed which I find to be the most reliable management software, AwesomeMiner is FULL of features, I probably only use 20% of its functions.

I set a few rules to automate the farm like

If the temp is > x > pause/reboot the miner and send me an email.
if the hardware errors are above and the miner uptime is <n time > send me an email.
if the hashrate is below average for more than 5 mins, reboot and send me an email

and the list goes on, basically it would do anything you would do manually if you were sitting there watching the miners, in some cases physical intervention is needed like when PSU dies or something, which is where CCTVs come in handy, you will always know what likely is the problem before having to send someone or go there yourself.

You can always pay a little extra and get cloud notifications like SMS and telegram, but I find emails to be more than enough, just make a new email address, sign into the email on your Phone and enable notifications, change the alert sound, every time you hear that sound you know AwesomeMiner has found something wrong in your farm, then from reading the title alone you would figure, example miner (x low hashrate - reboot), I don't even bother unless I get another email with the same error, because usually, that reboot would fix the issue.

if you want to reduce the number of times you would need to drive to the farm, you are going to need some smart PDUs because for some miners, you are going to have to power them off and then on, they would just freeze, nothing can be done on the software level, it would be a pain in the *** having to drive for hours just to unplug one bloody cable only to replug it after 5 seconds.

Glad to hear you are going to have a break, it's pretty much needed, on the contrary, this year will hopefully be the year where I get to the 10-20PH mark, I learned from the previous cycle, and thank God I seem to have played the last cycle well, built enough infrastructure and didn't FOMO into buying gears when they were expensive, recently I have been adding some good hashrate, alongside with some cabling, some good quality PDUs, it will be a busy year as I am slowly running out of cash and will need to wait for the gears to make some $$ to turn into hashrate again, so hopefully somewhere in Q4 this year I will hit my target and relax.

Honestly, BTC mining is an addiction, you never get enough of it unless you hit a wall and decide to stop, or you hit some physical limitation, setting hashrate mark as to where you are going to stop never worked for me, it started with I'll get 200th and stop, ok 500th is good, alright I promise to stop at 1PH, ok I know I broke a couple of promises but now for real, 2PH and I will stop, of course, all of these promises weren't fulfilled, had to lie to myself, my wife and even my partner who acts like he is mad at me for not sticking to all previous limits but shows no signs of rejections .

This time it's for real, I am getting closer to the limit of the warehouse as well as the transformer, and any addition will require a completely new project which at this age I am certainly not willing to start, so instead of being stuck in the loop for years, I decided to finish the whole process this year and call it quits.

I hope that sometime next year I will post something like yours about taking a break for a year or so, mining has given me so much, but it also took so much from me as a person, every time I see a newcomer who thinks that mining is all about buying a mining gear after visiting an online profitability calculator, and thinking that everything is going to go according to their plan, I can't help but remember the dozen times I fucked up before realizing how difficult the mining business is, anyone who went from a small home miner with 5-10 gears to building their own farm understands how difficult it is and how many things can go wrong before you can get it right, it's been a very very difficult business, a massive challenge which I have no clue how I overcame, but thank God anyway.

Don't be mad, just try to enjoy your time, there will always be another chance to get back to mining full blast.

Ya the average block time for the past 24 hours was 9.27 mins, the hashrate is indeed picking up, I think we will start the next epoch with somehow a good pace, probably 105-107% assuming the price stays sideways between $16,000, and $17,000.

I think it would be wiser to advise him not to mine with an S9 in the first place, going solo with an old gear as opposed to mining to a pool doesn't change the power bill, it just makes things even worse, you would be faced with a power bill and all you have on the other hand is "hope", I also think the phrase "very slim" doesn't fully describe the chances of a single S9 hitting a block, he has 1 in 143,679 chance per day, one single change in nearly quarter a million at a cost of nearly 30kWh which is a huge bill, he would have a lot more chances winning the lottery while spending a lot less.

So I agree with NFW here, solo mining is only 'ok' if you use a small USB stick that needs a few dollars worth of power a day, anything aside from that is just irrational.

OP, it's good that hzti brought the power cost in this topic, I hope you understand what you are doing and are well aware of the cost you are going to pay vs the rewards, if you already ran the numbers and decided to go for it, you must focus mainly on the minimum payout of the pool, try to stick to a PPS pool which has a very low payout threshold so you don't have to wait for months to get paid.

Binance, Viabtc, F2pool, and the list goes on and on, you can do a google search on all PPS pools and then read their terms to find out which one has the lowest payout threshold, even at a bit higher fees it would still make sense to use that pool as opposed to saving 1% on fees only to get paid out in 4 months.

WOW, 2022 is over, hopefully, we won't miss it.

So, the pace seems to have picked up quite a bit, the average block daily block time for the past 4 days has been below 10 minutes, on the 24th of last month it was 16.x minutes, seems like the climate stuff in the U.S had a huge major effect which when we saw the pace below 90%, but as for now, it seems like the Yanks got out strong from the storm even stronger (Thank God all the folks here are still alive and well).


The current numbers are as follows:


So in roughly 30 hours, we should see a good drop in difficulty, but judging by what happened in the past few days, I won't be surprised to see a positive adjustment for the next epoch, not a large one, but something in the realm of 3-5%.

The fact that you are old enough to sign up for the form and ask such a question suggests that you need to be a supercentenarian to witness it,  out of the nearly 8B population we have right now, studies show that there is between 300 and 350 supercentenarian, in other terms, 1 in 1000 centenarians (people who live up to 100 years) will get to 110, and to be centenarians the chances are 1 in 1000, so it's extremely unlikely for any of us to be there in a 100 years from now.

Now that we got the human race life span stuff out of the way, the answer to your question is "nobody knows", everything will be determined by the VALUE extracted by miners, even the comment above that says


could be wrong, when all the 21M BTC are mined, BTC could very well be trading at say 100M dollars each, if we were to assume that transaction fees are 5% of the total block reward, today it's 0.3125 which is about $5000 + $100,000 for the block reward = $105,000. in 2123 the total fees could be 0.1 BTC per block so at 100M that's 10,000,000$ per block, which even after accounting for inflation still beats the now "105,000", even with BTC trading at 10M still beats it.

We also don't know how adopted BTC will be, if the protocol is changed and BTC becomes a means of payment for daily usage, maybe the block size will increase and we would have millions of transactions that all add up to make a large sum of fees, maybe it just becomes a store of value that doesn't move much and the total fees won't add up to a fraction of what they are now and thus only 1-2% of the total hashrate is sustained, you can't even imagine what is going to happen next year when the rewards drop by 50%, let alone predict difficulty in 100 years.


But one thing to keep in mind is that there will always be someone willing to mine BTC, even if the block reward was only enough to buy a bottle of milk, 2 folks with their old CPUs would be mining it, in fact, even if power bill exceeds the rewards people would still mine it just to sustain the blockchain which they invested in, we could even have on-demand mining, say nobody broadcasts any transaction for 24 hours, nobody mines no blocks, miners see pending transactions, they turn their gears on, just to mine that transaction into a block and turn off their rigs again, some difficulty rules will need to be adjusted if we get to that stage, but sure thing is, anything is possible when a 100 years had passed.

And since we don't know how things are going to be in 100 years from now, it's best to assume that the young generation then will figure out what to do to the protocol to keep it in the best shape and adjust their environment, one thing I know for sure is, it's not our problem to worry about.

Merged mining has no negative effect on BTC mining, it's just a negligible tiny bit of data stored in the actual bitcoin block and doesn't change how much a miner earns in BTC, for every BTC you mine you get (2 NMC, 5 SYS, 0.1 EMC, 0.8 ELA) from Viabtc, so ya, if they get to their ATH, that's about a $100-120$ extra on top of every 1 BTC you mine, I don't think anyone would refuse to get them even if they wroth 10$ in total, "free money" is good.

Ya, something like that MIGHT work, but if he got a $100 battery for $10, it would make more economical sense to actually sell it for $100 and make 90$ proft rather than use it to mine, the real value of the battery is still $100 not 10$, so it still technically costs him 100$, so long story short, it doesn't work. .

What he needs is a revolutionary discovery that brings batteries' cost to 10% of what they cost now, maybe someone manages to make nickel or lithium out of thin air, or crazy Elon Musk finds them in space for cheap, it's possible, maybe in a century or two.

He can also place his gears on the surface of the sun and get to use free power.

What you saying is true, with enough investment you can get off the grid, but do you have the slightest clue how much it costs to get to that stage? there is NO WAY that you can mine BTC profitability being 100% off the grid, you will need to invest maybe a hundred thousand dollars in solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries, just to run a few miners that might earn you $1000 a month, despite being independent of the grid and paying no bill, the cost of the setup is just way too high to justify doing.

So the short answer is NO, you can't count on solar to mine BTC unless you generate way more than you need, sell the surplus to the grid, but it back when your solar system is not generating any power, which of course, isn't an option for countries that still face power outages.

Parallel mining/ split hashrate? possible! merged mining? is also possible but only limited coins that support merged mining such as Namecoin, sys, and a few others that phill mentioned above, there could be more, but the key here, the coin needs to support merged mining, in a nutshell, small coins have merged mining enabled to make their blockchain more secured, their blockchain is referenced in BTC's blockchain, to be specific it's saved as a transition in the BTC block itself.

This gives them a somehow secured blockchain at almost no cost, the downside, all these coins are worth little to nothing, so the rewards are almost nothing, I just checked my mining account on Viabtc (which I longer use), and it has 2.5BTC cumulative mining rewards, some NMC, SYS, EMC and ELA, the current value of all these merged mined coins is below $20, maybe at some point in the past bull cycle they were worth $100, but this was obtained after years of mining on the same pool, would I take $10 for every 1BTC mined? why not, would I bother switching pools just to get them? probably not.

Natural disasters are usually regional unless aliens invade planet earth or it's the day of judgment, aside from that, it can't get worse than the China ban except with a U.S ban assuming the U.S owns more than 60% of the total hashrate (China had 50-60% when the ban took place).

Now that we got that out of the way, I don't see how small miners can benefit from this, even if we were to assume a worldwide disaster, small miners don't live in a vacuum, they will be in the same shoes alongside the large miners, right after any difficulty drop, everyone will have the same chances of rushing into the mining business, in fact, the large players will be more ready than the average small miner who sent the miners to his grandmother's garage thinking he would never fire them again.

Large farms play the game a lot differently, they go to the extent of automating everything, at x profitability level change the miner's setting to x, at x profitability overclock the miners, at x profitability shut down the miner, if x coin has better profitability switch to that coin when disaster is over switch the miners on! so without a doubt, large miners will make use of any difficulty drop a lot better than most of us.

يبدو ان الحملة قد توقفت, لقد تلقيت هده الرسالة عن محاولة توتتق حسابي


او ربما لاني لا استعمل تويتر وحسابي غير نشط ولم اكتب تويتة واحد فيه من قبل؟ على العموم تكلفة الدومين 5$ في حال عدم القدرة على الحصول على الدومين المجاني.

طرق الدفع هي بطاقة مصرفية, باي بال, كريبتو او crypto.com.

بالنسبة للكريبتو يوجد عدة عملات مثل البتكوين والاثيريوم وبعض العملات الدولارية على شبكة erc-20.

وبالمجمل, الفكرة جيدة جدا. شكرا اوميقا.

Bitmain APW3 is just a mediocre PSU, it was designed to fulfill it's purpose at the cheapest way possible, the failure rate on those models is extremely higher than the other known brands, I can probably build a room with the dead APW3/APW7 that I have, anyone who had a few hundreds/thousands of them will probably be telling you the same, there are other Chinese cheap brands that outperform the APWs, even better if you get something like Seasonic or EVGA, a lot more expensive but certainly for a good reason.

Of course, this is only valid for the 12V 6pin miners like the S9, the new miners require factory PSU or custom made, not so many brands out there but according to reports I see on telegram it seels like some of those custom PSUs that work on the newer gen of miners are a lot better than the stock PSU in terms of durability and even lower harmonics.

I know, the part of my comment was supposed to sound funny, but ya, I know, I am not the funniest person you would meet online. , honestly, at least that website puts a warning of some kind unlike all the other online calculators I have seen, it does go on with using unstained numbers but ya, still better than just showing the imaginary gains without any type of disclaimer.