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561  Economy / Speculation / Re: ETF accumluation and price impact for bull run on: January 30, 2024, 11:58:41 AM
If you say that they already accumulated about 130 000 BTC today, and that in less than 20 days from the approval of the ETF, it would be logical to assume that the total number of BTC by the end of this year will probably be much higher than what you are speculating about. Of course, the current figures can be attributed to the initial excitement, so maybe it would be good to wait 1-2 months and only then start to draw some conclusions.

If you are talking about the number of 500 000 BTC by the end of the cycle, then it is not too much for a period of 2 years - especially if we take into account that Microstrategy "removed" from the market just a little less than 200 000 BTC, although admittedly in a long period. I would perhaps dare to say that the funds could buy even more than 500 000 BTC in the mentioned period, but only for the reason that we are in the halving year, which should mark the beginning of a new big bull run.

As for the new ATH, I think it would be realistic to expect it to be x2 compared to the previous one of $69k - which means at least some $140k and up to $200k if the ETFs turned out to be big BTC accumulators in that period.
562  Other / Meta / Re: Email used to create this forum? on: January 30, 2024, 11:14:07 AM
I think there is a confusion. Satoshi did post on this forum, in the new forum back in the time.
You need to read this:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5.msg28#msg28


You know what is much more interesting to me? The fact that Satoshi wrote that post on November 22, 2009, and the first answer was only on February 1, 2010. Was the topic locked or were some earlier posts deleted?
563  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Island in the Philippines, Have you ever been there? on: January 30, 2024, 11:00:16 AM
With this topic in mind, I decided to check if there is any new video from Boracay that mentions Bitcoin and I found one video that is just over 1 month old in which a German family describes their experience on the island when it comes to Bitcoin. Unfortunately, the situation is much worse than what I imagined, because although many stores have signs that accept Bitcoin, in most of them it is not possible to pay with the same.

In one of the comments, a man says that it is simply too expensive for him to convert BTC - > local currency, and would that mean that Pouch charges too much for that conversion?



Click the image to watch the video.
564  Economy / Reputation / Re: AI Spam Report Reference Thread on: January 30, 2024, 10:35:38 AM
@ABCbits, I have checked several posts and mostly get positive results on AI content. Some posts are too short for AI tools to be able to detect them at all, but this one is apparently AI generated.

Selecting a legitimate new cryptocurrency project requires careful research and due diligence. Here are some key steps and considerations to help you evaluate the legitimacy of a new crypto project:

**Whitepaper Analysis:**
   - Read the project's whitepaper thoroughly. It should clearly outline the project's goals, technology, use case, tokenomics, and roadmap.
   - Look for a well-thought-out and detailed plan for implementation.

**Team Background:**
   - Research the background of the project's team members. Check their experience, expertise, and track record in the blockchain or related industries.
   - LinkedIn profiles and other professional networks can provide insights into their credibility.

**Community Engagement:**
   - Evaluate the project's community engagement across social media channels, forums, and other platforms. Active and engaged communities are often a positive sign.
   - Check for regular updates from the team, addressing questions and concerns raised by the community.

**Partnerships and Collaborations:**
   - Look for partnerships with reputable organizations or collaborations within the blockchain and crypto industry.
   - Established partnerships can enhance the project's credibility.

**Technology and Innovation:**

   - Assess the technological aspects of the project. Is it introducing innovative solutions or building on proven and secure technologies?
   - Check the project's GitHub repository for code transparency and development activity.

**Tokenomics:**
   - Understand the tokenomics of the project. This includes details about the token supply, distribution, and utility within the ecosystem.
   - Be cautious of projects with unclear or overly complex tokenomics.

**Regulatory Compliance:**
   - Check if the project is adhering to regulatory requirements in the jurisdictions it operates. Transparency in regulatory compliance is essential for long-term success.

**Roadmap:**
   - Review the project's roadmap to understand its development milestones and future plans.
   - A clear and achievable roadmap demonstrates the project's commitment and vision.

**Reviews and Feedback:**
   - Look for reviews and analyses from reputable sources within the cryptocurrency community. Consider both positive and critical perspectives.
   - Feedback from early adopters or beta testers can also be valuable.

**Security Audits:**
    - Check if the project has undergone security audits by reputable third-party firms. Audited projects are likely to have a more secure codebase.

Always be cautious of red flags such as anonymous teams, unrealistic promises of high returns, lack of transparency, and rushed token sales. Additionally, stay informed about the latest developments in the cryptocurrency space and be aware that investing in new projects involves risks.



GPTZero -> We are highly confident this text was ai generated (96%)
Copyleaks -> AI Content Detected
ZeroGPT -> Most of Your Text is AI/GPT Generated (44.81%)
565  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Adults of bitcointalk what are your candid advice to newbies in the forum? on: January 29, 2024, 04:29:36 PM
~snip~
Don't hold on to it till you pass; always share that wisdom and exchange knowledge with the new babies in the forum.

It seems to me that you think that someone might be hiding some secrets from you and the other "babies", but the forum is actually an open book that you just have to start reading from the first page. Knowledge is also completely free, and wisdom can come with time - although don't allow yourself to be misled by forum ranks, which in some cases mean next to nothing.

However, here are some tips from me :

- always search the forum if you are interested in something, maybe someone has already opened a topic with a question that interests you.

- always make an effort to read all the answers in the topic before writing an answer, otherwise you show that you have not read anything except the first post and the title.

- learn how to edit quoted posts - there is no point in quoting the entire post if you are only responding to part of it.

- take into account what you are advertising in your signature/avatar - which means that you should do your research in order not to advertise a scam project.
566  Economy / Services / Re: [CFNP] [banned mixer] Signature Campaign | Up to $150/W on: January 29, 2024, 03:26:31 PM
Thank you for the payment, and for another week of successful campaign management Wink
567  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: [PROBLEM] transaction hash not found on: January 29, 2024, 03:14:49 PM
I finally got to know that the fee I used was way too low about 11sat/byte like what was wrong with me?
~snip~


I'm wondering the same thing - because you're not a beginner who should have a problem with checking the status of mempool and fees before making a transaction.

In addition, my advice to you is not to play too much with your seed by entering it into different wallets if there is no need for it. By doing such things, you only expose yourself to the risk of entering a seed into a fake wallet or of the device being infected with malware at some point. Find a wallet that suits you and stick to it - and if you want to try a new wallet, simply install it and create a new seed for that wallet.
568  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: As a crypto investor, the less app you install the better. on: January 29, 2024, 02:47:43 PM
Yes, this is the best advice. This takes me to my point earlier. 3rd party apps on mobile devices are like family. They are filled with so many tracking software that the user is oblivious of. On the other hand, even if you use a desktop wallet, it is your responsibility to ensure that it is up to date with the anti-virus and firewall.

AV and firewall make sense, but only the paid ones. I won't say that they do their job perfectly and don't spy on the user, but all those AVs that are free are very bad at their job and collect all possible data from your computer that they can get their hands on. However, if you already have such software on your computer, you don't need to worry too much about updates, because everything is set to be updated automatically - whether it's about antivirus definitions or upgrading the program itself.
569  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: As a crypto investor, the less app you install the better. on: January 29, 2024, 11:22:24 AM
As a crypto investor, you should invest in a good open source hardware wallet or keep your coins on an airgapped device. This way you don't have to worry about what you download on your mobile or desktop cause it's not linked to your holdings.
~snip~


HW is not the ultimate solution to all problems, because those who do not understand the risks are still at risk from threats such as clipboard malware or seed stealers that such devices are not immune to. Regardless of where you store your coins, I would not agree that we should download apps just like that, because we still run the risk of infecting our devices with various malicious programs that can cost us a lot.



The best advice you can get is to not keep more in your mobile wallet than you can afford to lose - because there is not only a risk of malware, but also of someone physically attacking you and forcing you to give them access to your wallet.
570  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Island in the Philippines, Have you ever been there? on: January 29, 2024, 11:04:30 AM
Yes, maybe you are not aware how nepotism and corruption is in the Philippines, it might not be direct, but the President's men surely knows what is going on behind everything, specially for those people they have appointed. Binance for example has move to Thailand already because of Philippines hardcore stance against crypto. And if we talk about corruption and politics,

I know that the previous president was very strict with criminals, especially with those who deal in drugs - but that supposedly a lot of innocent people (political opponents) died in that war. Of course, if we assume that the elections were fair, then this is what the people chose. Of course, the tails of corruption and tax evasion are common in that country, and even the new president is obviously not a person who is immune to these things.

As for the CEX you mentioned, they had to leave many countries because they worked against the laws of those countries and did not want to adapt. I have no doubt that it is the same case in the case of the Philippines, because they are obviously not against cryptocurrencies, but against companies that do not want to operate in accordance with the law.
571  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Why are 'B' Crypto Exchanges Dominating the Top 10 and 15 on CG and CMC? on: January 29, 2024, 10:36:44 AM
You obviously sound as if you are not inclined to centralized exchanges but the obviously they still have relevance in this crypto space particularly for off-ramp services

Why would anyone who has any understanding of Bitcoin be inclined to any centralized service? Especially if there are decentralized crypto exchanges that are a far better solution from the perspective of risk and manipulation.

Of course, CEXs have relevance and will continue to have it, given that the average investor in Bitcoin has not gone much further than considering CEXs as a kind of crypto banks similar to regular banks. Of course, we should not forget the institutional investors who use CEXs for trading and storage, which means that most of them do not understand what "not your keys, not your coins" actually means.
572  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Why are 'B' Crypto Exchanges Dominating the Top 10 and 15 on CG and CMC? on: January 28, 2024, 03:06:20 PM
This first CEX you mentioned is actually the owner of CMC, so it's not surprising if it's really at the top because they use that platform for their own promotion. Given that the same CEX operates mainly in the gray zone, I would not be surprised if some of their acquisitions remained secret and that they own much more than what they admit.

However, if you ask me why their names start with "B", it probably has something to do with the fact that it is the first letter in the word "Bitcoin" - and it is no secret that Bitcoin sells a lot of junk (altcoins) that are listed on these platforms.

I can proudly say that I have never made a deposit at any of the aforementioned CEX, and I only have an account open at one, although that is a completely different story.
573  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Island in the Philippines, Have you ever been there? on: January 28, 2024, 02:54:04 PM
I thought that current sitting President is very open to crypto and that's why the island is flourishing.
~snip~

Is the president even important in this story? I don't remember ever reading that their president makes statements on that topic, but that's not strange at all because it shouldn't be his job. This is about the fact that the law allows the use of a currency other than the domestic one for payment transactions and nothing more. Bitcoin can be successful in a country without the president or prime minister knowing anything about it, because if something is legal and brings profit, there is no reason to deal with it at the highest political levels.



This bring a lot of disappointment from new merchant that accept bitcoin since by having such huge fee to pay before they can transact it can discourage people to use this option also to the merchants since they need to pay those huge fee before they can make the transaction happen.

This became a expensive currency to use when they need to buy something that's why I'm not surprise that the number of merchant that accept bitcoin decrease and there's no much hype happened since maybe they didn't succeed on their plan to make Boracay a bitcoin island.

Bitcoin should settle up and fix the problem regarding high fees because if it happens that fee are so cheap for sure more adoption will come and more bitcoin island or city will be created.


I just had to quote the whole post considering that you are referring to a post in which someone explains to you that only LN is used on Boracay, and you talk about the need to find a solution and that the fees are expensive and the number of merchants is decreasing. You got everything wrong, down to the last letter...



They will have to wait 1 confirmation before they mark the sale as complete, plus the fact that you as the buyer will need to shoulder the fees.
~snip~

I can only say that you read what I wrote above - and ask how is it possible that you were on that island and remained convinced that everyone uses on-chain transactions?
574  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is now in the race to become the richest in the world on: January 28, 2024, 12:01:48 PM
It will not be very difficult to guess who can be the most ahead in this competition in the future world. I have been seeing a lot of rich people collecting bitcoin lately and there is a big competition to collect bitcoin among the recognized rich internationally. Now the day is not so far when the top several company owner all over the world will also be defeated by the BTC holder.
~snip~


That day won't come anytime soon, if it ever does. The people you listed as the richest people in the world are only those who are publicly known for their wealth, and there are those who are not publicly exposed, but possess far greater wealth that was created over generations and is measured in trillions of $.

A question for you - what would the price of 1 BTC have to be for Saylor to overtake Mr. Mars on your list?
575  Other / Meta / Re: [SAD] activity on: January 28, 2024, 11:40:11 AM
~snip~
Also you can miss out Sr slot in Rollbit campaign if your activity increased then your slot move up and your payouts was increased 40$ to 65$
Now, Let's see when new slot are empty in Sr rank


So you think that the OP is sad because she/he will miss the slot in the signature campaign? Very interesting thinking for someone who has only Newbie rank, and seems to know the forum very well, right?
576  Other / Off-topic / Re: [privacy] Apple admits to secretly giving governments push notification data on: January 28, 2024, 11:14:11 AM
~snip~
Enjoy your life.  Live the moment, not through fake attention.  Try living like in the 80s to the 90s.  You will love it, I bet.


Do you want to say that young people today would be happy if they discarded smartphones, computers, console players or the internet? I bet that 90% of those people couldn't survive a week without all that technology, and you'd really have to be persistent to find someone who would really like it.

According to what we see today, the majority of people are ready to sacrifice their privacy for the sake of their lifestyle, and even if tomorrow all smart device manufacturers announce that they share user data with all the governments of the world, I have no doubt that this would result in nothing but endless discussions on social networks.

Today, it all comes down to who will spy on you in relation to whose device you are using - and considering that Apple devices are also manufactured in China, be sure that the Chinese also have a hand in this.
577  Economy / Reputation / Re: AI Spam Report Reference Thread on: January 27, 2024, 04:38:59 PM
Iamcrypticguy

The crypto markets have been on a wild ride in recent years, with major price swings and increased adoption happening at a breakneck pace. As we move further into 2024, there are several key developments and trends worth paying attention to in the cryptocurrency space.

In the coming months, we may see further price action around Bitcoin halving, continued growth in decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, more mainstream adoption of digital assets, and increased regulatory clarity in major markets. Major themes appear to be broader institutional involvement, innovations in blockchain technology itself, and the tokenized representation of assets.

There are still many uncertainties, but it looks like the crypto space will continue to rapidly evolve. What potential catalysts are you watching out for? Which cryptocurrencies or blockchain applications are you most excited or optimistic about for the future? What are your predictions for the overall market and major cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum?

Share your thoughts on where things may be headed and what you expect to see unfold in the coming months in the crypto industry. The markets are highly unpredictable, but with so much activity in the blockchain and digital asset space, the coming months look to be full of developments that will shape the future of the industry. Let us know your take on this...


GPTZero -> We are highly confident this text was ai generated - 92%
Copyleaks -> AI Content Detected
ZeroGPT -> Your Text is AI/GPT Generated 96.77%
578  Other / Meta / Re: Use of AI on Bitcoin talk on: January 27, 2024, 04:22:14 PM
Posting content that was AI-generated fulfills both requirements of what plagiarism is: You took the work from someone else, and you didn't credit the original source. That's plagiarism.

If at least the majority of the members of this forum thought so, then there would be no problem with such posts - but from the posts above you can read very strange opinions, and it is not an isolated opinion - some members of the forum say that they only make their posts "more pleasing to the eye" " with the help of AI and that they see nothing wrong with that. Those cultural differences that you wrote about regarding plagiarism can definitely be applied to the use of AI tools.

The only issue here is that AI-generated plagiarism might be difficult to prove. You are again relying on automated tools to check and tell you whether a piece of text is or isn't created by a different automated tool. Do you understand what I am saying? It's not reliable, and can't be controlled and verified by a human. But if there was a database of everything an AI site ever generated, it would make things much easier in terms of proving plagiarism.

It's true, there is currently no completely reliable way that can be used to detect content created with AI, but there is a set of tools that can be used and whose results can then be compared. I also recently accused someone of using AI, and it turned out that even two detectors showed bad detection - which means that we should be very careful and try to check with as many detectors as possible.

In my opinion, the bigger problem is that the forum's administration has not made a clear decision about this, and that practically means that anyone who reads the unofficial rules of the forum thinks that content created with AI is allowed.
579  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Halving effect on: January 27, 2024, 11:47:07 AM
If the ETF has a significant role in the increase of Bitcoin price then why are we having that delay for the price up till this time? It should have stayed on the increase but we have it going down.

We can take two reasons why the price fell by almost 20% instead of rising. The first is that the interest of investors after the approval of spot ETFs is not even close to what was speculated, and the second is that one of the companies that received approval for the ETF (Grayscale) had more than 600 000 BTC in its possession. The data says that they have already sold more than 80 000 BTC and are still selling, which definitely causes pressure on the market, and the law of supply and demand has taken its toll.

I think the effect from ETF has already been there and is like it has a particular time to start going back up (which we definitely don't know) to a more better price like more than the expected $50k. But my problem is that the delay is too much like we're going to see Bitcoin price back at $35k in a short while if care is not taken.

There is no problem here except that there were too many expectations around the ETF, but I have speculated before that maybe we should expect that the spot ETF will not have too much influence on the price of BTC, as was the case with the futures ETF. As much as one might think that any way that appears will cause a mass frenzy to own BTC, this is by no means the case.

Any way we look at it, I believe that less than 10% of people in the world have a positive opinion of Bitcoin - others still believe that it is some kind of ponzi scheme or means of money laundering, terrorist financing and similar things. Those who think otherwise should read what Gensler wrote after being forced to approve the spot ETF.

He pointed out that Bitcoin, which investors can now directly put money into through the new ETFs, is “highly volatile” and that crypto’s OG has been tied to things like money laundering and ransomware. “Bitcoin, itself, we did not approve, we did not endorse,” he said. “The only payment mechanism it’s being used for in sort of a, in a primary sense, is illicit activity,” he said in the interview.
580  Economy / Economics / Re: Save while young better than wait on: January 26, 2024, 04:39:44 PM
Look, you can be old and rich or young an poor, but being old and poor is bad shit.
~snip~

I would rather be rich in my youth, or rather in my best years, even at the cost of having much less or being poor in my old age. When you're young, you have far more needs and things you need to accomplish, and for that you need a lot of money - and when you get older, your needs decrease more and more and the only thing that matters is your health.

Therefore, I would emphasize that we should be more careful in our youth about the way we live, because alcohol, cigarettes and fast food will only come to pay in old age. I have a saying that says "old age will ask you where your youth was" and there is some truth in that.
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