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781  Economy / Speculation / Re: I give up on: May 26, 2014, 07:51:06 PM

This will be a breeze for Mat. Whatever you may think of him he clearly does make an effort to learn some of the technical analysis stuff so a bit of philosophy will be a walk in the park. And in my view he does have a nihilistic streak!  Cheesy
but you know,to get an expert on TA you Need experience,experience and again experience.
It takes IMHO about 3 years to get this experience, no crash course is possible.
I see a lot of TA posts here done by noobs.
I personally do not make any TA but I can read TA and evaluate the noobs here

I do think Mat can be too bearish and cynical - if Bitcoin does continue to evolve healthily then I would certainly say that this cynicism got in the way of his understanding and trusting the long-term fundamentals - but I recognise that he has put more effort into learning TA while on these forums and while thinking about Bitcoin than me and quite a few others.
782  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 26, 2014, 07:42:32 PM
Seriously? They had a fork?

Several...

EDIT: one was planned  Grin
783  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 26, 2014, 07:39:04 PM
Very unexpected turn of events @DRK coin

Literally no one saw that coming.

Anyone care to explain in a nutshell so I don't have to go and look it up?

784  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Sell now? on: May 26, 2014, 07:25:43 PM
Looking at the DRK thread it appears that there is an issue with the planned fork that has people panicking.

But maybe the whole thing is a pump and dump.

Do research before investing to find out the answers you need! Smiley
785  Economy / Speculation / Re: I give up on: May 26, 2014, 03:56:04 PM
are you sure this will be a light reading for Mat ?
[/quote]

This will be a breeze for Mat. Whatever you may think of him he clearly does make an effort to learn some of the technical analysis stuff so a bit of philosophy will be a walk in the park. And in my view he does have a nihilistic streak!  Cheesy
786  Economy / Speculation / Re: The rise has stopped.. on: May 26, 2014, 03:43:48 PM
Can someone tell me where these rumours about Bitstamp being insolvent came from & is there even a remote possibility that it's true?

There are zero reasons to assume Bitstamp is insolvent.

What is happening though is a rather over zealous KYC/AML policy which asks rather probing questions such as proof of funds. This in itself is not a problem IF its in the TOS and people can expect it.

Whats not okay is people selling coins thinking they are verified (it even tells you on your account you are verified) and then having their funds held hostage until they pass all the procedures.

Overall its just about making things clearer but they are likely just covering their ass. Naturally people jump way far ahead of themselves and start making wild presumptions.

Their policies have been in place for ages. Noobs join Bitstamp and then freak out and post on here in a panic.

Even if you are fully verified big transfers need explaining. This has been the case for ages.

This is a new unregulated environment. Regulation is coming. Bitstamp don't want to get in trouble so they might be going a little far with the KYC but what else would you expect from people churning over millions of dollars every day taking a prudent approach in an unregulated-soon-to-be-regulated environment?
787  Economy / Speculation / Re: Something, something, something, technical analysis on: May 26, 2014, 09:49:24 AM
If I've got this right you are in earlier than you were planning a couple of weeks ago am I right?

What was your planned buy-in point a couple of weeks ago compared with the price you actually bought in, if I may ask?

No, not really. Short recap, maybe:

I wrote a long post about the bearish triangle variants on April 25th, see here. That one guided me as far as the time frame was concerned -- convergence scenario #1 was predicted for late May at the latest, and the actual breakout was May 20, so it was pretty accurate. At the time of that post, I was still rather bearish, expecting we'd probably see a breakout to the downside. Maybe that's what you have in mind when you say "earlier than I planned"?

On May 16th I posted about a new observation that, based on MFI (a money flow oscillator), it looked like we had finally found sufficient buying support at the given price level. See the post here. From that point on I was, as I wrote, "cautiously bullish".

By May 20, MFI had continued to develop exactly as I hoped it would, so I didn't hesitate much when the breakout happened. I'm in since about 460, not tempted to sell (yet).

Thanks for the recap. I can't find the post in particular (admit have not looked very hard) but remember you saying that you would not enter until sure of a reversal (and if I remember correctly that was at least in the 500s if not 600s in your opinion at the time) because you were in profit anyway so it didn't really matter.

Just trying to understand people's changing perspectives. The posts you made since (that you mention above) explain...

788  Economy / Speculation / Re: I give up on: May 25, 2014, 08:27:23 PM
If you guys turn out to be right, then believe me, it will be through pure chance. If I am right, it will be because I know I am right beforehand to the best of my abilities.

So the best they can do is being fortuitously right while you'll always be, at worst, intelligently wrong. Bravo. Schopenhauer would be proud.

May I suggest some light reading for you, Mat?  Wink



 Cheesy
789  Economy / Speculation / Re: Something, something, something, technical analysis on: May 25, 2014, 08:18:58 PM
If I've got this right you are in earlier than you were planning a couple of weeks ago am I right?

What was your planned buy-in point a couple of weeks ago compared with the price you actually bought in, if I may ask?

If you are talking to me:

I had buy-ins lined up at $360-$400. As Bitcoin stagnated in the $430-$450 range, I was waiting for convincing confirmation of breach of either of the long term support or resistance trendlines which were converging. In the end, it was the resistance line which was convincingly breached, and I went long at $460. Suspecting a pull-back, I sold at $520. Realising that I had probably made a mistake, was waiting on breach of final long term resistance line before deciding upon whether to re-enter market. Had I been awake at 4am UK time, I would have re-entered market at $540, but I was asleep. When I awoke, Bitcoin was topping out at $586. I have since 'dabbled' with a long position which I have since closed as I have decided that taking a position at the moment would only be gambling. If Bitcoin can take out the $586 high, again, on convincing volume, then I may take another long, but the higher up this vertical break-out we get, the greater the probability of a brutal correction there will be. I wish hadn't closed my $460 long position, but too many times in the past, have I failed to take profits and then had the market turn on me, sometimes viciously.

Thanks Mat! What about you, Oda Krell?
790  Economy / Speculation / Re: Something, something, something, technical analysis on: May 25, 2014, 06:39:18 PM
When I got out my bed, Bitcoin was topping out at $586. We are now at $565. Although I am yet to be convinced that the bear trend has reversed, I feel that now that the Dec 2013 trendline has been breached, that a Wave (B) of a grander Wave [4] could take Bitcoin right up to $700s before correcting. However, we have already had a very vertical leg up and must surely now be in for some kind of meaningful correction (mind you, I was thinking this at $547). What would be your own short term view on Bitcoin with regards to timing a new market entry point?

I wish I had one. If I would have been caught with my pants down (i.e. asleep Tongue), I'd probably be buying in even now, but be on the watch for reversals at the well known resistances, or after a simple failure to sustain momentum. The risk that we break through, say 630 anyway, and you'll be forced to buy in at that level would be too big for me. I /do/ think there's a good chance we'll see 550, or even 530 again in the next days, even if we sustain momentum overall, but bet on it? I don't think I would.

If I've got this right you are in earlier than you were planning a couple of weeks ago am I right?

What was your planned buy-in point a couple of weeks ago compared with the price you actually bought in, if I may ask?
791  Economy / Speculation / Re: I give up on: May 25, 2014, 06:32:53 PM
The only reason I (and anybody else who understood what bitcoin is) trades here is to have more coins, period. You don't "panic cash out" because the only time you panic is when you are in fiat. Now go ahead with your childish insults about "koolaid foaming" or whatever suits you. But maybe instead you should try and understand?

I heard all this kind of thing from Silver Stacker right through 2010 - 2013, and I admit I was bought and sold on it. The Fed is creating money out of thin air, this will cause hyper inflation and soon the people will demand a return to real money which means gold n silver will go through the roof as the USD hegemony collapses.

At first, the delusional paradigms that I bought into were rewarded. Then the markets topped out, but I held out as I watched over 120% gains turn eventually into 30% losses (on silver, gold not so bad). I still have all the physical metal that I bought. I could get the same amount of metal today for a good bit cheaper. On the otherhand, the penny did start to drop with the 'digital' silver that I purchased on the precious metals 'bottom' back in 2012, which I offloaded most of before I took another good beating on that.

I have seen all this before and have been victim to the exact same kind of paradigms that the majority here are victim to. If you guys turn out to be right, then believe me, it will be through pure chance. If I am right, it will be because I know I am right beforehand to the best of my abilities.


I do think Bitcoin is quite a different investment from metal though. Different properties.
792  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 25, 2014, 06:30:27 PM
This rally is bullshit. It's only because people can't withdraw fiat from gox.

You sir, are bullshit. Butthurted bullshit if not mistaken.

See ya on the other side.  Kiss

*Ignored.

He might have been having a little fun?

Lol, so much for that joke Sad

I do get the distinct impression from his posts that ChrisML is heavily invested in Bitcoin.  Smiley
793  Economy / Speculation / Re: This is why Bitcoin is rising so fast... on: May 25, 2014, 06:27:57 PM

Did you put that together Fonz? If so I'm impressed!
794  Economy / Speculation / Re: Major western Bitcoin exchanges about to be investigated and probably SHUTDOWN on: May 20, 2014, 09:27:28 PM
795  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 08:02:49 PM
Anyone know if the bitstamp thingis real and should we be worried?

?

What thing?
796  Economy / Speculation / Re: What is driving the price crazily up???? on: May 20, 2014, 07:23:18 PM
I guess it must be this: "More Bad News for Bitcoin"

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/05/20/more-bad-news-for-bitcoin/

 Huh

797  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 06:32:53 PM
so, I live under a rock and I am lazy as hell

can someone tell me what just happened?

Karpeles made an appearance on Oprah earlier today and pulled the private keys for 600k coins out of his ass.

One at a time.

That would lower the price I think. 600k BTC lost is 2.9% of all Bitcoin that will ever be mined (more than 5% of currently mined ones)

You had to be there to fully appreciate the bullishness of the situation. My tv's still sticky.

 Cheesy

All that time cautioning against rocket pics and suddenly this?!!  Grin
798  Economy / Speculation / Re: Forget 100k or even 10k. When will it be 800 again? on: May 19, 2014, 11:06:39 AM
Dont worry friend, you will see your infinite riches come back in no time!

1000 000 USD by the end of week! TO DA MOON! Who disagrees is FUD spreader and troll.

You are correct,  noob.
799  Economy / Speculation / Re: A Single Bitcoin will Worth $100K - Do You Believe it? on: May 18, 2014, 06:00:09 PM

When it becomes obvious to everyone that they should really buy some, then they will. At which point it will become obvious to everyone that they should really buy some...



 Smiley
800  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here we go on: May 16, 2014, 07:56:52 PM
The chart by Elwar relies on the data point of the flash crash in October 2013, so it can construct the "nice line" from Jan 2013, via October 2013, to now.

The beauty of that October 2013 Silk Road Flash Crash was that even with the huge amount of fear around in the Bitcoin market on that day, $85 was as low as Bitcoin went.

The Beauty about the Gox-coin 'firesale' is that it showed enough people subscribe to the exponential growth support and resistance level theory, for Goxcoin to stop falling right at the point where it met the long term exponential support trendline.

I don't think it would be wise to take the Gox data seriously during the last few days and weeks of its existence. People were no longer trading BTC - they were trading bets on Gox's survival.
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