Changed your mind arepo ? What was wrong with your analysis ?
lucif, how do you distinguish today's activity between your bearish flag and a bullish pennant (from the $50 low) ?
There is enough room in the flag for a bullish pennant to work out. |
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(266 + 54)/2 ≈ 160 - it should bounce at least to this level. But maybe we should use a log scale here?
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It only means that if the price gets under 40 then people will switch off mining rigs. If that happens too quickly - then the algorithm will not adjust and the confirmation time can grow threatening the whole bitcoin network. This can have a feedback spiral - but I don't see that very probable.
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Same get rich quick attitude, same "new paradigm" talk, just different people.
This is a new paradigm of financial bubbles! |
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rfSJr2oDkx6YYhoC2EXYa5fP4taWExHmJs
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The language of Nagle returns. While the price did slide, it reversed at a glorious $2 and Nagle disappeared, haha.
It took 6 months for that! |
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Some people are still intoxicated with ATH. A long slow slide is the hangover that happens after too much ATH.
It is the same as in 2011. There are dollars from the sold coins sitting in MtGox - it is too tempting to start it all over - that's why we'll have all these bull traps - mini rallies that stop in half the way. But when people realize that there is no more ATH in stock then they stop, and there is less and less of that optimistic money - because it is withdrawn from MtGox to buy yachts by those that bought last year and now sold near top (or even above 100).
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Unfortunately this can generate a crash when people withdraw bitcoins from MtGox and try to sell them at other exchanges and then at the opening of the MtGox trade people look at these other exchanges for a price clue.
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I just recently discovered: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=83.0 . Has any one following this board to see how the amount of scam alerts fluctuates? It is all invisible until it is unearthed by some journalist - and then I guess it will have impact on the price. |
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I profited from it - it was pretty predictable how people react. I only wish I was more aggressive in my speculation.
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I don't know - maybe it is better to panic first - like I panicked yesterday at 250?
OK - I was not really in a panic state at that moment.
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how much BTC would it take to pop the bubble, and make bitcoin lose more than 80% of it value, and have the value hold at < 50$ for more than a few weeks?
Preparing your coins? |
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I have just received a ridiculous amount of money (ridiculous at least for me, probably not for the early adopters with 1000s of BTC) that I have been told to invest in BTC, several orders of magnitude larger than the amount I have invested in Bitcoin so far. I will receive the money on Wednesday, which probably means I could find a way to get it into Bitcoin by Friday.
I was pretty happy about it all, until today. What the heck should I do? What are the chances that Bitcoin will go down - at least to below $200 - for a little bit at least?
I know its hard to tell, but any advice you could give me would be helpful.
Smells pump and dump. |
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Show us some new chart-porn!
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I still have a hard time believing i'm a millionaire now with a measly 5000BTC... and still kick myself over losing that much to a hard drive failure way back... and the pirate 'investment'...
Are you holding it until it is a billion? Or are you starting to sell? |
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There is evidently new money flowing. The bids are filling quickly after a sell-off.
There is another wedge forming now - will that be invalidated as the previous ones?
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That large 15,000+ new user queue on gox are users that want to BUY bitcoin. Not sell them lol. Just saying..  Hmm - what about those that want to withdraw their money? |
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