So you're telling me that with x4 times the reward miners are consuming less electricity, raking in 10 times the profit, and not plugging in new gear because you've told them to?
YOUR the one telling me that miners are not plugging in new hardware
YOU said miners are still using 2019 outdated inefficient s9..
Again you're talking bs, do you believe that the hash rate is generated only by new gear?
There isn't a single S9 in this world who isn't mining at this time, they are still profitable at 10 cents per kwh.
i corrected you that they are using new s19 and gaining 2.4x efficiencyThere isn't a single S9 in this world who isn't mining at this time, they are still profitable at 10 cents per kwh.
anyways.. avoiding your own distracting waffles.
stompix. your about 10% right in small parts you mention.. so lets concentrate on that
just like gold. if it remained as cheap to mine gold using just a kitchen spoon and a coffee grain filter ($2) then the price of gold would be $2-$4/ounce.. not >$1500
its actually the increase of cost of mining that sets the minimum price people are willing to sell for. thus setting the base value.
so while mining bitcoin, its base value is only ~$21k/coin right now. the speculative price is >$47k. this speculative bubble spread of $26k does not mean the hashrate will double.. emphasis: it wont..
repeat: the speculative spread will not cause the mining to grow by 200% in the short term the price went up. i promise you that.
it means that mining can grow by 200% this fortnight/month, BUT it will only increase by 2-5% not 200%
no miner is going to shoot themselves in the foot by pushing difficulty up by 200% in the short term
the mining wont jump that much.
the actual result is the speculative bubble of $26k above the $21k mining cost. means the speculative bubble can correct down. yep there is more chance the speculative price will drop by more than 5% than chances hashrate will rise by more than 5%
again this $26k speculation will NOT cause a 200% jump in hashrate purely because there is 200% spread to allow such hashrate growth
..
maybe try to understand more about the mindset of mining. they wont want to push difficulty up as it just shoots them in the foot.
remember 2020 had a halving. and although the speculative price went from $10k to over $40k the hashrate did not go 400%.. it only went up 60% in a year(100exa to 160exa) which is ~ 2-3% a fortnight
yep miners only want to grow at under 5% a fortnight per difficulty adjustment.
they do not react the moment a price tracks at 200% more profit. they play the steady rise game of small difficulty adjustments