A BAD loosing And always ONLY A LOOSING STEAK and NOTHING Wrong MOTHERFUCKER ?
Your polite and respectful language tells a lot about you.  |
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LOL, what is wrong with you guys.  A bad streak and site is scam?  |
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Nope, you just don't get it. What you are talking about is precisely termed as gambler's fallacy. (above post makes it pretty more than clear) Do you believe your strategy is positive EV?  LOL, you did. xD
No I was explaining that the official explanation of the fallacy is short sided, its more to it just than the independent outcomes. Because the cluster is randomized too, so weather the odds are set to any amount, the distribution tends to follow the variance. Or in other words , except a few black swans, the distribution is also contained to a local variance and it can be exploited to control risk better. Example: if you flip a coin 100 times, the odds of being tails 10 times is 0.09765625% and yet the 11th roll is less likely to be tails, but not impossible.So eventually the heads have to come, so we can say that the local probability can vary wehereas the overally probability remains constant. Now this is no way a guarantee, because somehow the 12 consecutive tails have to come too, but then the local probabilities just reshuffle, randomly. This is a common mathematical phenomena. I think its called local probability distribution: http://pitt.edu/~druzdzel/psfiles/flairs06.pdfWhich is also called gambler's fallacy. But apply it in this case. With this strategy too the risk is 1.9% more than the reward.
Hey its random anyway, but you have to understand that based on odds, somebody can come out a net winner even after 100,000 rolls. It all depends on the local distribution , how it gets shuffled. And those who are losers, at least lose less than they normally would with other strategies. You are talking about a distribution with trillions of trillions of trillions...... of rolls tending towards infinity. The concept you are talking of doesn't apply here. The sample size even if you make a trillion rolls is too small and not representative I do appreciate the effort. Anyway, you will learn some new stuff.  |
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I personally have a stronger faith in nonce based provably fair system (manually changing client seed every bet just in case is too much effort, lol). Known dice sites are not rigged, but that doesn't mean you'll win in long terms (short terms too), that's why the 1% house edge is there
999dice is accused of being rigged (not provably fair unless you verify each bet). Fairproof has lot of scam accusations. Other than that most of the popular dice sites here are not as far as I am aware of. |
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Individually the bets are random and independent, but collectively they tend to built up a pattern.
Guess what? They don't. It is human tendency to connect things that aren't. Every single thing is distinct and it is impossible to accurately predict the next roll. There is no trend. No such rule that all rolls would be equally distributed either though you might assume they are. Edit: To give clarity just check how SatoshiDice's provably fair system works. IIRC, they are just adding two random numbers and that is it. |
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Well, tbh I have a stupid strategy too. But I am sure it is still negative EV. But the good thing with my strategy is if the odds are say 1% to roll a >50 and 99% to roll <50 or the other way round, I make a profit. Cashes out on all consecutive same-sided bets but if it keep switching hi and lo, lose lose lose.. Surprisingly I found a few who were following the same thing here. (thought it was just my own one, lol)  I put out my strategy simulator I made, you can try it out if you want, I rolled out simulations on easily 200,000- 2,000,000 bets and it does hold up to those wins. Yeah, coz of variance it could show anywhere from a massive profit to a massive loss. I also think the gambler fallacy is not what it looks like, it is certainly misinterpreted. LOL, you did. xD I am interesting to know so how would you get recover when you lost amount at any losing streak,
Rule 2 in the book is never chase your losses.  Yes because with any type of recovery strategy, the risk increases faster than the reward and you will end up losing more. You have to let the losses go in order to stop losing more! True. But apply it in this case. With this strategy too the risk is 1.9% more than the reward. |
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I am interesting to know so how would you get recover when you lost amount at any losing streak,
Rule 2 in the book is never chase your losses. |
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Same thing like prerolls. Just wastes extra time. Edit: Sorry but I did simulations with 200,000 rolls, and it works. I either end up with -0.01% loss or with 7.7% gain, so I think its a perfect strategy for low risk/ low reward gamblers.
The average consecutive loss/win there is ~ 15-17, so a 20 consecutive trigger is rare, so the risk to bet on that is low.
Gambling is never positive EV. It would be tending towards -1.9% of your wagered amount. Edit2: Simply understand every single bet is completely independent. Imagine there are 1000 sites, and you make the first 10 bets on 10 different sites, you will understand that the strategy makes no real sense. It only appears to. Edit3: For 7.7% gain, simply bet 7.7% of the bankroll till you have one win more than the loss. Statistically better chance than the above method, and you can save on time and electricity. I think SatoshiDice has lower edge on bets with very low chance? Still it is 1.9x standard house edge. |
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Bet id > total bets. Prize is for the bet id. Edit: BET #9999995  |
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Great. |
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Do not confuse provably "fair" with edge. A site can have 99% house edge, and still be provably fair.
The correct implementation of provably fair means the game is not rigged.
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I do feel obligated to explain how to calculate the "house edge" on the tickets: (1-(prize/tickets-allocated)/ticket-price)*100 so that is: (1-(3.5/50995)/0.0002)*100 = 66% HE I understand it's just an optional extra thing and that's okay, but just want people to know what they are getting. Better just make Bets It's also worth noting that the % you came up with changes. If people allocate 100%, now the HE on them is different. In any case, I agree that playing is the best way to earn them. It changes but still it is much better to play than buy, in my opinion. Better just make Bets Edit: LOL. (didn't get it the first time I read) |
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There is also SatoshiDice, 64blocks and a couple of other interesting sites. |
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I'll check weekly DaDice with the new owner. Hopefully they'll do something with the faucet.
The faucet will for sure not be better as it is now. Will for sure not be better? So I guess the faucet size will go significantly lower in the future, right? Nah, it means it wouldn't go higher. Most probably stay the same I think. |
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The best is bitdice.me, I have some money there that has close to doubled. Or the most risky and most porfitable is still just-dice, I'm almost up x5 in bitcoin value from the 100 clams I bought, but if JD shuts down the value of clam will be 0. Another option is MoneyPot which allows you to invest in BetterBets an other sites, but the returns are likely not really worth the risk (I'm only now finally up 5%, after 2 months of loss). For sites like: Win88, PocketRocketCasino, DaDice, PeerBet don't listen to the owners and do your own research but I'm sure they're all either scams in the making or when they shut down they'll take everyones money with them. DiceNow I think is also legitimate but has no volume so pointless to invest in
My favorites is Just-Dice and BitDice.me, but with the latter it is a little risky. I invested a little and it is still negative. (some highroller winning) SafeDice is a good one too. idk, prc, peerbet doesn't have any legit claims against them afaik. Da Dice has no investment option. |
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count me in. ndnhc 1LWtZsYMNCuEn5TmawNGPHmu2W3udrYeWK |
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ndnhc I'm glad you decided to take a shot at the X 3 prizes!
Thanks I am gonna play steady and safe. |
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I'm getting confused now, probably a new thread would be better but seeing the amount of off-topic replies here I don't think one more would hurt.
Mitchell(before deleting his post) said that staff members can change their usernames is that true or not?
Sorry for the confusion. Looks like I made an error. Yes, staff members can change their name. Similar to that what donators and VIPs can. Note: I just did it. Wow. LaudaM is now Lauda. |
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Sorry.. Didn't realise that is bank..  Apologise for mistake..  No problem, mate. It is quite easy to confuse. |
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my address:1DLQQjGEMKoDpUosVtAizac5sfA9vruCML
Are you trolling? Didn't you read this is ended and this is not giveaway? You just simply send ur btc address everywhere.  DD username:bank
Prediction roll:15.94
Total deposited 0.21566141 BTC(at the time of making this post):
Total wagered 12.16804913 BTC(at the time of making this post):
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