Hey, I'd like to apply for a spot please:

Bitcointalk Username: pawel7777
Profile Link: profile link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=183781
Post Count: 4734 (incl. this one)
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Are you able to wear our Signature, Avatar & Personal Text?: Yes
Stake Username: pawel7777

Note - I got back to the forum at the end of December after a long break (with sporadic posting), so take into account that my pre-Dec activity is not necessarily a good indicator.

I'll wear the signature/avatar once accepted (and will update the starting post count)
I will edit this post and cross out the above if accepted spot in another campaign.

Hmm my first experience with gambling (taking lotteries and bets between friends aside) was sports betting. I placed some small wager on a combination bet for a few football matches (or for Americans - soccer) and it made watching the game waaay more exciting. So that was my introduction to gambling. I wasn't particularly interested in online casinos type games until I joined this forum and started to experiment with crypto-casinos as there were plenty of promotional offers back in the days and it was actually easy to make a profit.

I never felt addicted to gambling nor ever felt that I can't take control of it. I made some bigger losses, which hurt a bit for a while, but never lost more than I could afford to lose.

Right now I'm just limiting myself to occasional small bets, playing a bit of poker from time to time and taking advantage of good value events bets if an opportunity comes along.

I think it's a good idea to keep your gambling funds separate from other funds, i.e. in a separate account, sub-account, or just as a deposit to your trusted platform(s) + having a cap of say a certain amount from your monthly pay and keeping an iron discipline. And of course, don't allow yourself to get too emotionally engaged, you should be able to just shrug any losses off if they happen. Trying to desperately "win it back" is a recipe for disaster.

I fail to see how's that angle any different.
What I wrote was not a critic of people who are not (fully) satisfied with their lives, nor did I say it's their own fault. Whatever the reason is, the point still stands, lotteries are useful tools to sell hope to the masses and to help maintain order in society.

But if you want to go there - allowing yourself of having a victim mentality (aka "it's never not my fault, it's because of XYZ") you are doomed to fail. You're wiring your brain into looking for excuses and rationalising your shortcomings, instead of taking up initiative and trying to take control of your life.

You cannot be "good" in luck-based games when you have a proven mathematical disadvantage, you can only be lucky.

That of course excludes rare situations when you could actually shift the edge to your side, with an example being counting cards in blackjack - where you could potentially get even from 1% to 2.5% advantage over casino (depending on the game type), but those situations do not happen very often and would likely be prohibited.

Please post a scan of your passport, your email, phone number, and your full personal details and I will not provide you with the information you requested.


It's probably true that Stake.com is the leading one, especially if we only consider crypto-related casinos, but do we actually have any comparable data regarding different sites' bankrolls/revenues/number of users, or is it just a guessing game?

Nah, you got it a bit wrong, that 1 btc mentioned is just an example for the purpose of calculating the EV for such bet.

In this exercise, the stake s flexible and that's actually the main question of this thread - how to determine the right amount of the wager, expressed as a percent of your available bankroll (if you decided to take it in the first place).

Lol, this thread is unique because these are HIS predictions, you can't force him to post in some other thread just because it also mentions Premier League. Otherwise we would only have a dozen or so of mega-threads in this section and no other posts.

I enjoy his prediction posts (which are not limited to the premier league) and am glad he does that in a separate topic, as I (as well as others) can't be asked to go through hundreds of replies in mega-threads (I'd only view the few most recent post if anything).

@Blawpaw - but actually creating a separate topic and just updating it for fresh predictions (rather than starting a new one each time) could work great, as it'd be easier for the others to follow. Just a thought.

^ This

They also have other official thread in Micro earnings (as they were most famous for the faucet, as the name suggests):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=319540.0

I think the site is pretty trusted (still - don't deposit more than you can afford to lose obviously), operates continuously since 2013, and is definitely online, so no idea what is OP referring to.

Just a heads up - their house edge on dice game is pretty high compared to other sites, so be aware.

Definitely sports (or other events) betting for me.

With casino games, you know for sure that the house has a mathematical advantage over player (unless there's some sort of bug or exploit heh), whereas with sports betting the odds are always judgmental, and many times I can find bets that I believe have too high odds (ie. underdogs' chances are underrated) and I would try to take advantage of that.

But casino games can also be fun and can net you some profit with a bit of luck, especially with a low house edge games.

My old man also played the lotto his whole adult life. He managed to hit the 2nd prize twice, but obviously still spent more (by far) on tickets than he earned in winnings.


But why wouldn't you just take that $2 and auto-bet it i.e. on a 1% dice. You could still win a few $millions (depending on site's budget that is) but at much better odds. Is it just because of time and convenience?


There are plenty of people who spend small fortunes on lottery tickets regularly. I agree that's probably a bit different kind of addiction than addiction to physical casinos and similar gambling (as the latter are more dopamine-based addictions) but it could still cause some financial damage if left out of control.


Are you referring to my OP? What's offensive about that?
And no, I'm saying the opposite - that lottery is also a type of gambling.


I think it's a similar theme in most other countries as well. You could argue that this makes such lotteries more "moral" than other types of gambling, but I still find it a bit hypocritical when country bans most/all of gambling but encourages and profits from state-controlled lottery.

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So far the poll is split 50/50 between lottery players and non-players. I expected players to be dominant tbh

The question was not whether you'd take that bet or not, I know you would. Just as I know you wouldn't take a bet of $1 on a coin toss if the potential winning was $0.10.
The question is WHY you would/wouldn't take such bets if it's not for their positive/negative EV? If you refuse to use the term and calculation of EV for one-time bets, then how do you assess whether a one-time bet is worth taking or not and what do you call it?

Yeah, not letting the campaign manager know that you left for a different campaign is weird. Perhaps some would hope they'd still accidentally get paid if manager fails to notice the changed signature.

But that kind of brings up another question should participants get paid if they completed the campaign period (usually a week) and met all the posting requirements, but switched campaigns and changed their signature before the payment date? I would say so, provided they can somehow prove that they wore the signature till the end of the period.

Strange thing is that, allegedly, a lot of lottery winners, would go broke after winning big, some media articles quote even 70% of them, and they wished they had never won. I take that with a grain of salt though, as there doesn't seem to be any credible source for that number (some other sources claim that 'only' a third of winners would go broke).


People tend to get very defensive when you challenge their actions and they cannot come up with any reasoning.

Let's not pretend that a huge chunk of people posting in gambling sections are not here only because of signature campaign requirements. As such, they don't have a 'natural' interest in the subject or desire to learn anything more advanced. They probably very rarely gamble at all.


That's probably true in practice, but I can't imagine any casino would actually outright state in their T&Cs that Arbitrage/EV betting is disallowed. If anything, they'd wrap it up in some vague terminology.

But yeah, I've heard about physical casinos not allowing players to use martingale when playing roulette, even know the casino would still have an edge.


It's a good case for peer-to-peer style gambling when odds are determined by amounts wagered by players on each side of the bet, and the casino just takes some portion of it (similar to rake in poker). Then you'd be playing against other people, not against the casino.

The same here. As much as I understand the appeal of lotteries and why people play them, but for me it's all about the odds (maybe with the exception of some charitable lotteries/raffles with funds going to a good cause).

I've started a separate topic with a poll relating to national lotteries, if anyone's interested and want to vote and contribute to the discussion, you can find it >here<

Good point, convenience and sometimes zero time needed to play the lottery is definitely some factor, i.e. in the UK you could just set up regular ticket purchases and you'd get notified if you win - so after the initial setup, you literally don't have to do anything. But that's definitely not a major factor here, I think it's got more to do with the mental perception of lottery Vs. other gambling.
For example, placing a small, combination bet on a large number of completely random sports events could give you the same potential winnings but at much better odds, and yet most people just prefer the lottery, probably because it doesn't have the stigma that other gambling has.

You definitely don't sound like a native speaker. The "Jack Murray" page looks fake as hell and is unintentionally hilarious. It'll probably work better for you if you just take it off.


If you deposit sufficient funds in an escrow, then I guess all the fake personal info could be forgiven heh

Care to share which trusted member(s) are you in talks with? I don't think there's any reason to keep that a secret.

Oh, for sure. It's actually funny how many regular lottery players would have a strong disdain for gambling, somehow thinking the lottery does not fall into that category.
That's just how the perception is formed: if everyone is doing it and it's state-endorsed then it's all good. But any other form of gambling is for crooks and degenerates


Fair enough, but they could still just finance any good causes from taxes, but there's a reason they prefer the lottery.

Not sure if this thread is monitored, but re-posting for visibility. If the affiliate program does not include UK sign-ups, are any other countries excluded as well?
There doesn't seem to be any related info on the 'affiliate' page.

Topic and poll inspired by another thread - question:

Do you play national lottery games (Powerball, EuroMillions, Lotto etc)?

My view on big, often state-owned lotteries is they're designed mainly for 2 reasons: to make a profit and as a social tool that sells dreams of instant life change and massive wealth to the masses to keep them in line.

Most people are not satisfied with their lives and they need some sort of hope for the future to keep going and to prevent themselves from turning into crime, falling into depression etc. However messed-up your life might be, there's still hope that buying a cheap lottery ticket could potentially turn you into a millionaire (or even a billionaire) overnight. That's a powerful tool.

But the reality is, such lotteries usually have way worse odds than any casinos or gambling sites. So, mathematically speaking, you're better off gambling your money there.

Thoughts?