Firstly, this post belongs in either Speculation or Mining Speculation, [Edit: I see that has happened already.]
The combination of the reward being split in two and the hash rate skyrocketing is going to have effects on mining operations and market price.
What do you think the outcome will be.
This is a prediction, and predictions are hard -- especially about the future. Nobody knows, but I'll take a stab at it.
Day 0 is expected roughly around November 30th, plus or minus a week:
Day T-10: Four of the five ASIC manufacturers claim to be finalizing the design / optimizing / trying to resolve some nagging power issue / whatever, yet not a single person that pre-paid for an ASIC has one in-hand.
Day T-8: Difficulty of 3.5 million and exchange rate of $15 mean profitability is still acceptable for GPU miners paying average electric rates or less.
Day T-5: A lot more "N Ghash/s for sale" listings will start to appear
Day T-4: Difficulty for Litecoin rises as miners experiment, causing there to be no chance of profit from Litecoin mining either.
Day T-3: Block 209,664 -- last difficulty adjustment before the block subsidy reward drops (fact, not a prediction)
Day T-1: Last day that anywhere near 7,200 BTC is produced (fact, not a prediction)
Day 0: Block 210,000 hits and only about 3,600 are produced (fact, not a prediction)
Day 1: Blocks slow to about 11 minutes as some GPU miners realize basic math and power down.
Day 2: Exchange rate volatile, both up and down, but returns to previous levels -- about $15.
Day 3: Anger and vitriol from GPU miners who are still "underwater" on their GPUs purchased in 2012.
Day 4: Anger and vitriol from FPGA miners who somehow didn't realize that "much more efficient" doesn't protect against a revenue drop of 50%
Day 5: Blocks slow to about 12 minutes as more GPU miners realize the payouts are dismal and begin to proceed past "denial", the first step in the grieving process,
Day 6: ASIC hardware developers see an even greater number of prepayments for hardware. Much gnashing of teeth on the forums.
Day 7: Hashing on CoinLab's GPU network grows tremendously as miners cash in their built-up loyalty credits.
Day 8: Nearly all NVidia GPUs that were used for mining are now either computing with CoinLab or have been decommissioned.
Day 9: Gamers elated over some really good AMD and NVidia graphics cards available "really, really cheap" on eBay.
Day 10: Blocks slow to about 13 minutes, as not only did the block reward subsidy drop but so did the frequency of blocks -- making mining bring in even less revenue each day.
Day 11: Speculators hoping for the "doubling" of the exchange rate realize it didn't happen (or perhaps already happened, from $5-ish, over the summer), and sell off a little Exchange rate drops to $12-ish.
Day 12: ASIC manfuacturers claim to be finalizing the design / optimizing / trying to resolve some nagging power issue / whatever, yet not a single person that pre-paid for an ASIC has one in-hand.
Day 13: Block 211,680 - difficulty adjusts. Drops 15%. Back to one block every ten minutes.
Day 14: Mining operators are still seeing electric bills from the previous month's consumption. Even more anger, vitriol and gnashing of teeth.
Day 15: Christmas-related activities overtake bitcoin as being the event more important to many mining operators.
Day 25: The daily "average price" remains in a range between $12 and $15.
Day 26: Many "slightly used" GPU cards land in wrapped boxes under trees. Others, particularly those who had a larger investment in their GPU rigs, are using the phrase "bah, humbug" more than they had in any prior holiday season.
Day 27: Difficult adjusts, dropping another 5%. Yawn.
Day 30: ASIC manufacturers claim to be finalizing the design / optimizing / trying to resolve some nagging power issue / whatever, yet not a single person that pre-paid for an ASIC has one in-hand.
I would agree with everything you said with one minor change somewhere between day 2 and day 10.
Day X: GPU miners still "underwater" on their GPUs learn about Litecoin and attempt to keep mining for a possible payoff using the Litecoin system.
They eventually fail and give up in frustration harboring a lifelong deep seated resentment for all cryptocurrency because of their basic lack of understanding about the reason behind cryptocurrency and their shallow desire to be a part of a “money for nothing” scheme.
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Since the cards all use 12v rails, you will have guesstimate of your 12v draw.
71Ghash total.
